Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 8/31

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2009-03-12T01:44:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T01:44:00.000-04:00

Judas-Get off thehigh horse, it dies back when you...

2008-08-31T22:14:00.000-04:00

Judas-

Get off thehigh horse, it dies back when you swift boated Kerry and got Clinton sued in civilsuit for the first time in American history.

She is lying, it is on an issue important to the base the McCan't brought her in for. If it is proven th race is over. Bush is using threats in AK right now to keep a lid on it and Cheney is threatening Guatnamo. It might work. Bush is like Putin, and Putin sure has control.

judas priest wrote:It's not that I think that havi...

2008-08-31T20:47:00.000-04:00

judas priest wrote:
It's not that I think that having a baby out of wedlock is a big deal, but if Sarah Palin's daughter thought that it was, that's what counts.

But are those the rules that are being played by in the Edwards affair? As always, it is not the thing you are covering up that does you in, it's the cover-up itself. Nixon's bugging of the Democratic HQ, for example, comes to mind.

Regardless, the story is already out there. The damage increases the longer it hangs out there and remains un-countered. That's how gossip works. Disproving it actually adds to the story's credibility, because you took it seriously enough to address it.

Is it fair to attack Rev. Wright and his congregation for something out of context? Is it anyone's business where Obama worships other than his family? Wasn't there enough policy material out there to contest without dragging an ex-marine into the national spotlight and impugning his patriotism?

But all of this is beside the point. If the McCain campaign willingly conspired to conceal this story, then they exercised poor judgement.

McCain is willing to benefit from the smears in "Obamanation", while pretending his hands are clean, and I despise that. It lacks honour and integrity.

but if a parent won't push the envelop to do what ...

2008-08-31T19:46:00.000-04:00

but if a parent won't push the envelop to do what (s)he thinks necessary to protect the kid, (s)he's not worth much as a parent.

Why lie about it? It's incredibly virtuous to do it, so why not openly admit "Yes, I'm raising my daughter's child as my own."

It's the Edwards all over again. They thought they could keep a family secret and still run for national office. You cannot. It's the reason there's such a thing as vetting.

To those of you who are drooling about a supposed ...

2008-08-31T19:36:00.000-04:00

To those of you who are drooling about a supposed scandal because Palin's fifth child might not "be" hers and instead,her aughters.

STFU

I think the Palin chice is an insult to the Aermican electorate, but if a parent won't push the envelop to do what (s)he thinks necessary to protect the kid, (s)he's not worth much as a parent.

It's not that I think that having a baby out of wedlock is a big deal, but if Sarah Palin 's daughter thought that it was, tht's what counts.

There is enough real shit to dump on her without weakening the case by speculating about something which might not be true and is largely irrelevant even if it were true.

VC is up to his lies again:He cited a source sayin...

2008-08-31T19:24:00.000-04:00

VC is up to his lies again:

He cited a source saying that that site had debunked the idea that Palin had suported Pat Buchanan in 1996. Here's the url, decide for yourself whether anything thre is a debunking of that. http://blogs.abcnews.com/

Here's a quote from that piece:
The evidence is the following, as first noticed by "The Nation": in an Associated Press story from July 17, 1999, titled, "Buchanan takes conservative message to Fairbanks."

"Pat Buchanan brought his conservative message of a smaller government and an America First foreign policy to Fairbanks and Wasilla on Friday as he continued a campaign swing through Alaska….In Wasilla, Buchanan took some shots at the "Republican establishment," saying it was willing to cast aside conservative ideals in a zeal to ensure the nomination for Bush. 'I'm hoping the people of Alaska will disagree that we need a candidate anointed by Washington, D.C.,' he said to a group of three dozen supporters. Among those sporting Buchanan buttons were Wasilla Mayor Sarah Palin and state Sen. Jerry Ward, R-Anchorage."

Palin wrote to the AP that her presence at the rally and her wearing a Buchanan button were merely ways to welcome Buchanan to Wasilla, not endorsements of his candidacy.

But that's not quite how Buchanan remembers it.

Buchanan told Chris Matthews yesterday that Palin "was a brigader in 1996 as was her husband, Chris, they were at a fundraiser for me, she's a terrific gal, she's a rebel reformer."
*****************

Her support of Pat will go over real well with Jewish voters in Florida. They just love people who endorse anti-Semites. [BTW, that's not just me calling him an anti-Semite - the National Review did - they took the better part of one issue to examine that issue in detail] Probably just raised a few million for the Obama campaign.

And, if Buchanan support gets demonstrated, her little miss clean image goes out the window as she would be revealed as just another politician telling lies trying to get elected.

Now I can mislead family and friends by saying tha...

2008-08-31T19:14:00.000-04:00

Now I can mislead family and friends by saying that "a McCain victory is the most probable outcome".

Well, not really.

You could say that the single most likely specific Electoral College outcome results in a McCain victory.

A McCain victory is still 45.6% likely, as per Nate's figures.

I like it that McCain seems to safely hold the mod...

2008-08-31T19:04:00.000-04:00

I like it that McCain seems to safely hold the mode of the EV distribution every time I check. Now I can mislead family and friends by saying that "a McCain victory is the most probable outcome".

If she did not give birth and the daughter did, I'...

2008-08-31T18:51:00.000-04:00

If she did not give birth and the daughter did, I'm sure someone will tell.

I think that she says she got on an airplane for a very long flight after her water broke is a real story. What kind of mother does that? Is she really that stupid?

What tabloids? I'm looking at the National Enquire...

2008-08-31T18:50:00.000-04:00

What tabloids? I'm looking at the National Enquirer site now. Nothing on it.

Alaskan journalists say that National Enquirer stooges have been investigating this for a few days now.

Do you think they would report on Bigfoot, the Chupacabra, and Edwards, but pass this up?

If they don't, it's not important. That is the thing about smears; they don't have to be true, they just have to sound true.

I'll believe it when I see it.I mean, let's get th...

2008-08-31T18:46:00.000-04:00

I'll believe it when I see it.

I mean, let's get this straight...you don't care that Palin thinks Bronze Age myths overrule scientific consensus.

But you do care if Palin covered up her daughter's pregnancy on behalf of those same Bronze Age myths?

WTF? In your mind it's more acceptable to spit in the face of modern science than it is to protect your child from the phenomenally bitter backlash of the Evangelical virginity cult?

there's the sad thing - truth aside, this 16 year ...

2008-08-31T18:44:00.000-04:00

there's the sad thing - truth aside, this 16 year old is not prepared for this kind of limelight - and I suspect her mother didn't realize how nasty the national spotlight could get.

If true, it was a stupid ploy.
I'm sympathetic, but this all screams that Palin is a lightweight who is out of her depth. But I blame McCain's campaign. They should have known about this, and if they did then they were very irresponsible to risk Palin's family on such a long-shot gamble. Even if it was untrue, it should have been discussed beforehand so it could be part of Palin's decision-making process.

I also sympathise with Obama's family and all of the smears they have had to endure over nothing. It didn't need to happen. It must be painful for his children to have so many people telling lies about him for so long.

"That said, anybody who supports an Evangelical in...

2008-08-31T18:38:00.000-04:00

"
That said, anybody who supports an Evangelical in the first place is rotten to their very DNA, and no amount of exposed lies will change their support."

Bullshit. If this story has legs I'll be the first to say she should be dropped ASAP and replaced with T-Paw.

But it doesn't.

The probability that Trig is Bristol's baby is equ...

2008-08-31T18:36:00.001-04:00

The probability that Trig is Bristol's baby is equal to the probability that Bristol got knocked up. Literally---the conditional probability P(Coverup|TeenPreggo) is 1.00.

Trust me, I grew up in this community. The only thing Evangelicals care about is appearance, and they will lie 8 ways to Sunday to keep up their facade.

That said, anybody who supports an Evangelical in the first place is rotten to their very DNA, and no amount of exposed lies will change their support.

What tabloids? I'm looking at the National Enquire...

2008-08-31T18:36:00.000-04:00

What tabloids? I'm looking at the National Enquirer site now. Nothing on it.

You're desperate. Sad.

This election will come down to if Obama can win C...

2008-08-31T18:28:00.000-04:00

This election will come down to if Obama can win CO and/or VA. Obama is in good position to hold the Kerry states (no - PA, MI, MN, WI will not break GOP this year given the current political environment and the economy). IA and NM are strongly leaning Dem. CO and VA, while tight in the polls, are still GOP leaning states. These 2 states will truly be battleground in nature.

Palin drags her daughter into the light for the en...

2008-08-31T18:08:00.000-04:00

Palin drags her daughter into the light for the entire world to mock

there's the sad thing - truth aside, this 16 year old is not prepared for this kind of limelight - and I suspect her mother didn't realize how nasty the national spotlight could get.

Todd -I agree with you, now that the Tabloids have...

2008-08-31T18:03:00.000-04:00

Todd -

I agree with you, now that the Tabloids have hold of it.

OTOH, the expository diary is getting rec'ed on Kos.

anthony wrote:I expect the whole fake pregnancy th...

2008-08-31T17:56:00.000-04:00

anthony wrote:
I expect the whole fake pregnancy thing to be internet noise, unless something fishy comes out when Palin submits her medical records for review.

I think you are correct. For my part, I was just speculating on the consequences and the way the smear might play out.

Democrats have to stay far, far away from this. The tabloids are paid to investigate this kind of thing. Let it blow up in their faces, not ours. They are used to it. Too much is at stake, and the smears employed against Obama have not gained any serious traction, nor are likely to at this advanced stage. Aside from "gotcha" value, there is little to be gained from this in the big picture. Palin will make herself look bad on her own, and everyone will feel so much more clever if they realise it on their own rather than having us beat them over the head with it.

I'm just happy to see the tabloids pick it up.

2008-08-31T17:55:00.001-04:00

I'm just happy to see the tabloids pick it up.

Kicking around rumors is what Sunday afternoons we...

2008-08-31T17:55:00.000-04:00

Kicking around rumors is what Sunday afternoons were made for.

McCain: "I pledge that as tomorrow night, and if n...

2008-08-31T17:53:00.000-04:00

McCain: "I pledge that as tomorrow night, and if necessary, throughout our convention we will act as Americans not as Republicans..."

Ah, if only they could act as Americans all the time.

National Enquirer is all over Palin's "supposed" p...

2008-08-31T17:49:00.000-04:00

National Enquirer is all over Palin's "supposed" pregnancy:

http://www.mediatakeout.com/2008/26264-stunning_rumor_mccains_vp_choice_may_have_hid_daughters_pregnancy__claimed_the_baby_as_her_own_.html

After they broke Edwards, I'm guessing at least a few papers take a look.

Mission Accomplished!

rich - it's always like this late in the afternoon...

2008-08-31T17:46:00.000-04:00

rich - it's always like this late in the afternoon - they get to frothing at the mouth

will - you're making us liberals look bad. wait on it and don't spew. public records mean hospital records, depositions, etc - not assumptions. true, the allegations are believable, and explanable - but we just don't have the facts. calm down buddy