Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: 2009 Elections Preview: New Jersey Governor

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2010-03-10T07:24:59.124-05:00

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2010-03-02T23:26:42.923-05:00

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You referred to Christie as "well rounded" LOL

2009-11-03T16:49:00.640-05:00

You referred to Christie as "well rounded"

LOL

I don't know whether Corzine can pull off a win or...

2009-11-03T13:15:36.603-05:00

I don't know whether Corzine can pull off a win or not, but if these 15 questions are actually the basis of Americans' votes, this country is dooomed.

The pools are spastic. They can't be trusted thisy...

2009-11-03T10:15:43.791-05:00

The pools are spastic. They can't be trusted thisy ear with THREE candidates.

I respectfully ask random people from out of state not offer meaningless odds calculations.

Careful analysis of pre-election polls indicates t...

2009-11-03T04:40:46.719-05:00

Careful analysis of pre-election polls indicates that Christie's win probability is better than indicated here. I put the odds at 5:1 in favor of Christie.

For my analysis, see the Princeton Election Consortium.

@NJ moderate, Or perhaps LOCAL races dont have sh...

2009-11-02T22:31:17.754-05:00

@NJ moderate,

Or perhaps LOCAL races dont have shit for shingles to do with Obama.

Republicans would say a Republican defeating a Democratic mayor is because the people hate Obama

If vote fraud in my state is legendary, how come I...

2009-11-02T22:28:44.841-05:00

If vote fraud in my state is legendary, how come I've never heard of it?

There was only one time I've seen a shady registration. Some guy was registered at a business address. However, registration =/= vote.

1) NJ voter fraud in legendary. As in a thing of l...

2009-11-02T19:28:37.393-05:00

1) NJ voter fraud in legendary. As in a thing of legend, rather than current reality. People like to joke about it, but it's essentially impossible to pull off safely, so it hasn't actually been much of a problem in about half a century. Paying for votes, OTOH, has only been passe for about a quarter of a century. The actual theft of elections is from people who receive government contracts being expected to supply campaign contributions and/or 'volunteers' as a kickback.

2) Christie's closing line on his closing ad: "We can change New Jersey. We can start by changing governors." FAIL. Most Jerseyans want to change the politics is done in the state, but actually like the place overall and resent those who don't.

god, i hope juvanya's right.

2009-11-02T19:07:38.862-05:00

god, i hope juvanya's right.

New Jersey might be the most corrupt state in term...

2009-11-02T19:03:52.806-05:00

New Jersey might be the most corrupt state in terms of voter fraud and since the Democratic Party controls these levers now, I expect Corzine to outperform tomorrow. He is clearly the worst governor in the past 50 years in this state (and that is saying something considering that his three immediate elected predecessors were McGreevey, Whitman and Florio).

If Corzine loses, it might be because of the swine flu since there have been few doses down here in South Jersey and people who have children are 'ticked off' at this point. Burlington County will be the key county as no Republican can win the state if they can not win this very middle-of-the-rode to slightly left-leaning county.

My odds would be 55-45% in favor or Corzine winning tomorrow although Nate's numbers are correct if the election was fair.

Rasmussen's numbers sound correct because if Obama truly had a 55-56% approval rating, Deeds would have a chance in Virginia, Owens would be neck-and-neck in NY-23 and Corzine would win in a walk.

@Otto Mustaine said... If you think facts cited b...

2009-11-02T18:55:15.117-05:00

@Otto Mustaine said...

If you think facts cited by Greg Sargent of WhoRunsGov or Steve Benen of Washington Monthly carry more water than facts cited by John Fund of WSJ, then you live on a different planet than most Americans. I can't address the accuracy of the allegations cited by Sargent or Benen....
It's pretty funny that you wrote those two sentences right next to one another. Strike a blow for cognitive dissonance!

And your use of a crude sexual reference to disparage patriotic freedom-loving Americans frankly reflects poorly on whatever else you may say.
The Tea-partiers were using the teabag as their symbol. It's not libs' fault that they'd walked into a crude double entendre.

Haha, fair point Mule Rider. Indeed Keith is cons...

2009-11-02T18:24:52.266-05:00

Haha, fair point Mule Rider.

Indeed Keith is conservative, like many Oklahoma Democrats, but the point was a response to filistro who put Keith squarely in the Republican camp. Still, you're right that his party registration and 2008 activities are not representative of his politics completely.

And I would freely admit that country music trends conservative while rock trends progressive, as South Park has shown us so eloquently.

http://allsp.com/l.php?id=e97

The polling is so bipolar, we can't really trust i...

2009-11-02T17:34:34.538-05:00

The polling is so bipolar, we can't really trust it. New Jersey has never had a viable independent before, so we dont know how to account for it.

Christie has lost. Either the Democrap machine will beat him or Daggett will.

I still think there MIGHT be a last minute Daggett surge when people get in the booth alone. They'll figure "Hey, what the heck."

I know I'll be pressing the Daggett button tomorrow. I hope a plurality of New Jersey will join me.

Daggett 36
Corzine 29
Christie 28
Others 7 I think there will be a lot of people expressing hate against the two parties and not realizing Daggett or not caring about him. Also, some people will confuse the other candidates with him. (See Butterfly Ballots--Buchanan

Anyone who says Go Christie! is a fool. He is just as corrupt as Corzine and will do nothing to fix New Jersey. We've already had one Christie, we dont need another.

I strongly disagree with your assessment of questi...

2009-11-02T17:32:49.262-05:00

I strongly disagree with your assessment of question 14. Both candidates are negative about each other. Only Christie is negative about New Jersey. His campaign has made it much harder than it should have been for voters who like where they live to support him.

@Otto, Question their goals then. You don't beli...

2009-11-02T17:22:18.029-05:00

@Otto,

Question their goals then. You don't believe that people are freer
with affordable health care and representation in the workplace, while I do. That's fine. It's a matter on which reasonable people can differ.

But you're accusing them of illegal activities and providing absolutely no evidence to support it. That's a different matter, and it invalidates the crux of your argument--the preposterous notion of widespread voter fraud.

I'll admit that maybe I am a little biased against the WSJ editorial page. I haven't been able to take them seriously since their deceitful smear campaign to discredit Franken's election with disproven myths. Doesn't speak highly of their character either, though.

Jacob, "outlandish . . . WSJ editorials . . . inc...

2009-11-02T17:04:49.453-05:00

Jacob,

"outlandish . . . WSJ editorials . . . incendiary."

. . . whatever, dude. Not outlandish or incendiary to me or most other Americans.

And though I don't question the patriotism of SEIU members (only liberals are allowed to question their political opponents' patriotism, right?), I strongly question whether the policies they support will result in freedom for anyone, including themselves.

Signing off now. Have to get some work done before I go home. I repeat - Corzine will win. The margin of victory will be fraudulent votes.

Cheers.

Bart De ’Publican said… “Obamas job approval is ...

2009-11-02T16:48:04.821-05:00

Bart De ’Publican said…

“Obamas job approval is now down to 46% - 52% among Rasmussen’s likely voters, even though the number of Dems in his model has been growing.”

Please—when is the election for “job approval” going to be held? If there is no such election in the offing, then why does a model which supposedly conforms to “likely voters” matter when considering job approval?

@Bart And Obama also won on universal health care...

2009-11-02T16:47:24.869-05:00

@Bart

And Obama also won on universal health care, clean energy, and the promise of greater financial regulation. He may be in better shape now if he had delivered on anything other than the tax cuts, although I guess it's nice that he at least came through there.

@Otto Couldn't care less about WSJ circulation nu...

2009-11-02T16:44:41.307-05:00

@Otto

Couldn't care less about WSJ circulation numbers; it provides no backup to their outlandish editorials (Actually, I often read WSJ editorials bc of how incendiary they can be).

Ultimately, the point is that there is no concrete evidence of voter fraud or intimidation by either group.

SEIU did provide a recording of the call threatening them btw

And your unfounded attacks on patriotic freedom-loving labor activists reflects poorly on whatever line of attack you fabricate next.

Jacob said... BD: "This would appear to provide a...

2009-11-02T16:44:09.414-05:00

Jacob said...

BD: "This would appear to provide an opening for Blue Dog Dems to keep their jobs if they become born again conservatives and vote down Obamacare and Cap and Tax while offering spending and tax cut alternatives."

I think the "Democrats will win if we just act more like Republicans" canard has been played to death and thoroughly exposed as fraudulent. We have been trying it for over a decade and we only won by nominating a real Democrat who supported Democratic principles.

Clinton and Obama, as well as most of the Blue Dogs, won by promising tax cuts and fiscal conservatism. No presidential candidate has won by campaigning as a liberal since LBJ and no candidate has come close to winning by campaigning on the enormous spending and borrowing increases as well as government takeovers of entire industries we have experienced under the current regime.

I do not expect the Blue Dogs to follow my advice to keep their jobs in 2010. I simply thought I would mention the opening they enjoy rather than simply cheering for a party.

Jacob, If you think facts cited by Greg Sargent o...

2009-11-02T16:31:28.642-05:00

Jacob,

If you think facts cited by Greg Sargent of WhoRunsGov or Steve Benen of Washington Monthly carry more water than facts cited by John Fund of WSJ, then you live on a different planet than most Americans. I can't address the accuracy of the allegations cited by Sargent or Benen, but let's not forget -- as much as you libs hate it, the WSJ is the only major American newspaper that is *increasing* it's circulation right now.

And your use of a crude sexual reference to disparage patriotic freedom-loving Americans frankly reflects poorly on whatever else you may say.

Ah sorry Otto, I should clarify... When I said "i...

2009-11-02T16:16:13.706-05:00

Ah sorry Otto, I should clarify...

When I said "instance" I should have said actual EVIDENCE of voter fraud, or physical intimidation for that matter. Not just WSJ or Michelle Malkin-spun opinion pieces.

And yes I'm aware of the physical confrontation BETWEEN (not on) SEIU activists and teabaggers in St. Louis.

And on the subject, SEIU employees have been targeted by threats of violence as well.

http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/labor/seiu-gets-threatening-phone-call-youre-gonna-come-up-against-the-second-amendment/

Jacob, You're right -- for SEIU I should have sai...

2009-11-02T16:02:15.124-05:00

Jacob,

You're right -- for SEIU I should have said intimidation. As in physical attacks on tea-partiers this summer by purple "SEIU" t-shirt wearing thugs who made no attempt to conceal their affiliation.

Re: Acorn's highly competent voter fraud, just read current and back postings of John Fund's "On the Trail" blog at OpinionJournal.com.

Oh, and threats of violence? What about those New Black Panthers in Philly who Obama/Holder for some reason saw no reason to prosecute? The failure to prosecute guarantees it will happen again. Probably tomorrow, in fact.

Otto, Please provide one instance of actual voter...

2009-11-02T15:43:23.854-05:00

Otto,

Please provide one instance of actual voter fraud by SEIU.

Or for that matter, one instance where the incompetent mismanagement of ACORN changed the result of an election.

On the other hand, innocent ACORN canvassers have faced threats of violence on multiple occasions due to Republicans' outrageous claims of election fraud.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_10/015242.php