Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Response Bias and the Shy Tory Factor

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T02:00:00.001-04:00

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T02:00:00.000-04:00

徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

2009-02-09T01:10:00.000-05:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-01-19T10:22:00.000-05:00

They finished last because A) Each convention was ...

2008-09-09T00:03:00.000-04:00

They finished last because A) Each convention was a love fest by the commentators and B) (and most important) because MSNBC doesnt have HD, cripes no HD!!!

Virginia Conservative:My theory is people had thei...

2008-09-08T19:10:00.000-04:00

Virginia Conservative:
My theory is people had their minds made up that they were going to vote for McCain all along and are only now admitting it.

North Carolina Liberal:
Hate to admit it, but I think the VC is correct. Bob Herbert of the NY Times has predicted (and observed) as much. I do think that conservatives aren't proud of voting based on baser impulses. They not only vote against their own self interests (no speculation here: plenty has been written about this phenomenon), they vote against general logic. (If McC. is saying that he'll keep the Bush policies, why vote for more of the policies that have bankrupted this nation?)
Gawd. Who would admit to such dumb decision-making?
They don't admit this to pollsters earlier, because (other than the goofiness of it) there are elements of racism and just plain meanness.

And why do I think this? Because I am a liberal, but I come from a family of Republicans. I love 'em, but they are mean and racist and angry, and they think that some one else is always getting a bigger piece of the pie. And their bogeyman is the black guy. Of course.

"That said, it has no affect on my choice in this ...

2008-09-08T15:21:00.000-04:00

"That said, it has no affect on my choice in this presidential election."

Exactly, the "20 million people will read this and tell 20 million other people" thing is wishful thinking, as if it would actually swing a lot of those people one way or another.

We have one outlandish liberal here; should one outlandish conservative like Ted Bundy's actions have caused people to judge all Republicans?

I also dislike the use of the words "shooting yourself in the foot" because it absolves the opposing party of credit for movement in the polls (either positively caused, or negative smears.)

New post from Nate on the recent polls. This thre...

2008-09-08T15:15:00.001-04:00

New post from Nate on the recent polls. This thread is on it's last breath.

Also explains why liberals watch both conventions ...

2008-09-08T15:15:00.000-04:00

Also explains why liberals watch both conventions and conservatives only one. Democrats are actually trying to reach the accurate conclusion based on the facts and conservatives just want to reinforce their already held opinions.

Exactly and the thing to remember is that we've be...

2008-09-08T15:12:00.000-04:00

Exactly and the thing to remember is that we've been warned not too look too much into daily tracking polls as they are a snapshot of the mood. The POW stories worked no doubt. Also as it pertains to republicans coming out of the woodwork for John McCain, they were either independents or did refuse to answer the phone, but nonetheless seemed to be counted in identification. So in the end perhaps fewer independents which means Obama needs to take home his base and win over independents at about a 2-3% clip

Real - where'd you get the detailed numbers? thank...

2008-09-08T15:09:00.000-04:00

Real - where'd you get the detailed numbers? thanks.

bob - McCain and Bush both have conservative-worki...

2008-09-08T15:08:00.000-04:00

bob - McCain and Bush both have conservative-working brains which can see a picture of white versus black. (See my post above regarding neuroscience research.)

Obama has a liberal-working brain which can see white, black and gray.

PorDem,The convention bounce is just what it is an...

2008-09-08T15:06:00.000-04:00

PorDem,

The convention bounce is just what it is and the only questions are how high (Ras et al. say not very) and how long.

Many are talking about the Palin effect, but I really believe the key thing driving the bounce was all of the POW stories. Very powerful stuff and likely to grab a lot of swing voters temporarily.

Although it is well documented that McCain was a POW, the details were not widely known. 4 days of this story definitely worked.

The amazing thing in Gallup is that both candidates have really high favorables despite the bounciness of their poll. Both are at 61/62% favorable today. I wonder how going negative is going to work given that both nominees are so well liked.

Fox News about to release a new detailed horserace...

2008-09-08T15:05:00.000-04:00

Fox News about to release a new detailed horserace poll, FYI

"yeah and shows there is a cognitive difference - ...

2008-09-08T15:04:00.000-04:00

"yeah and shows there is a cognitive difference - McCain's answer to me is nonsensical - you can't 'wipe out evil' you can only fight it - its an on going process and the greatest risk is you will become evil in the course of doing so."

That's because you think. McCain's answer wasn't directed at you.

Obama: "We should be careful not to commit evil as...

2008-09-08T15:02:00.000-04:00

Obama: "We should be careful not to commit evil as we attempt to combat evil."

McCain: "We should wipe it out!"

yeah and shows there is a cognitive difference - McCain's answer to me is nonsensical - you can't 'wipe out evil' you can only fight it - its an on going process and the greatest risk is you will become evil in the course of doing so.

I am a moderate, strong leaning Dem this election....

2008-09-08T15:01:00.001-04:00

I am a moderate, strong leaning Dem this election. I think that eBay thing disgusting. I denounce and reject such garbage whenever it appears, regardless of party affiliation of the "author".

That said, it has no affect on my choice in this presidential election.

Fox is being very careful to only report a 4 point...

2008-09-08T15:01:00.000-04:00

Fox is being very careful to only report a 4 point lead from USA today, not the 10 point lead. Could be intentionally calculated to avoid rising expectations, or alternatively honest reporting, which i think at plus 4 lead for Cainer right now probably is.

Heck Karl Rove said it was ok when he went after M...

2008-09-08T15:00:00.000-04:00

Heck Karl Rove said it was ok when he went after McCain's adopted baby.

McCain hired Karl Rove's team. I'd say give 'em a taste of their own medicine.

Just don't post it on such obviously democratically affiliated sites.

That is totally Onion caliber humor.I think its fu...

2008-09-08T14:58:00.000-04:00

That is totally Onion caliber humor.

I think its funny - at least as funny as making a commercial comparing Obama to Paris Hilton.

There is no reason not to make jokes like that. Palin brought her family into the spotlight, she can take it.

I didn't see any republicans calling for a take down of attacks against Michelle Obama.

I don't believe in unilaterally disarming.

Everyone needs to relax a bit here. Conservatives,...

2008-09-08T14:56:00.000-04:00

Everyone needs to relax a bit here. Conservatives, liberals, democrats , republicans.. Relax

For anyone to think that McCain wasn't going to get a bounce just had blinders on or was really REALLY dumb. Some independents were going to sway, no doubt. But remember last week, Obama enjoyed his highest bounce, guess which day? MONDAY! So if McCain is polling at around +5 today, it gives both sides of the aisle reason to be optimistic. Bounces generally fade, actually always seem to fade one way or another. But claiming gigantic shifts in the electorate due to the convention is nonsense.

Also, Republicans out there. Your excessive explanations of why you win and how you win are disgusting. "We smeared you guys so hard", "Even though McCain isn't the best, still doing better than yours". Those types of cheer leading is what got our country in this mess in the first place. If voters in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania vote Republican this time, they get what they deserve. Because, guess what? Next democrat in 2012 if they win will be doing exactly what the Republicans did over these past 3 elections, free trade, no insurance, and appealing to the upper class with tax initiatives. Because unfortunately people do not vote self interest.

If people feel comfortable with Sarah palin waiting to be president..wow. Where has this country gone. Personality over issues and likability over self interest.

VC may very well just be an old guy in Virginia wh...

2008-09-08T14:55:00.002-04:00

VC may very well just be an old guy in Virginia who is lonely and has his nurse drop by once a day to change his diaper.

How else can you explain such rapid posting over long periods of time on EVERY blog posted on 538?

I feel sorry for VC - he obviously has tied his entire self-identification to where McCain is (or isn't) showing in the polls.

Trust me, if and when Obama goes back up at some point to +6 due to some McCain or Palin blunder in the news, he'll be crying into the bowl that holds his false teeth how McCain or Palin were the worst choices every made by the GOP.

Smitty... that's what we saw at Saddleback when ea...

2008-09-08T14:55:00.001-04:00

Smitty... that's what we saw at Saddleback when each candidate was asked what we should do about evil in the world.

Obama: "We should be careful not to commit evil as we attempt to combat evil."

McCain: "We should wipe it out!"

(Guess which polls better? ;-)

MPMI extracted example numbers for you:% likelihoo...

2008-09-08T14:55:00.000-04:00

MPM

I extracted example numbers for you:

% likelihood of giving to charity
religious (liberals & conservatives) 91%
secular liberals 72%
secular conservatives 63%

Its just more conservatives are religious, that's all.

As an (above the fray) Canadian, let me say that:1...

2008-09-08T14:54:00.000-04:00

As an (above the fray) Canadian, let me say that:

1. I saw on CNN 8 evangelical Floridians who, to a person, said they would not vote for McCain but, after the Palin choice, all said they would with enthusiasm. So this was a hidden vein of support which depressed the McCain numbers (and thereby made the race look close or in favour of Obama), but which has now been "found" and can be "mined".

2. I think the Republicans understand the power of a "story", as has been commented upon by your readers/bloggers. But I think it is stronger than that: I think it is more like a scientific "theory". The Palin narrative ("hockey mom" fighting evil) has rapidly become canonical, ie the conventional wisdom. Theories help people understand something esoteric/complex, where they don't have time to get into details. But a theory is very sticky, ie hard to overturn; there must be compelling evidence to break its hold on the mind. And that is a big problem now for the Democrats. (My girl-friend, to whom I was ranting about the lies about disposing of the plane -- sold to a supporter at a LOSS -- just said to me: "That seems so complicated. Who has the time to remember all that?" Oh, oh.