Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: McCain and Michigan

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2009-10-08T02:40:39.645-04:00

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2009-03-12T02:45:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-12T02:44:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T21:17:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-18T06:18:00.000-05:00

"All I see is a fly off the handle, belligerent wh...

2008-10-03T20:07:00.000-04:00

"All I see is a fly off the handle, belligerent whom I don't want in charge. See Dr. Strangelove."

How long will it be until McCain starts going on about precious bodily fluids?

First of all, the recent poll numbers spell disast...

2008-10-03T19:18:00.000-04:00

First of all, the recent poll numbers spell disaster for the McCain campaign, and this Michigan decision proves that they are panicking---not even necessarily over Election Day itself, but the resource allocation crisis they face now. I'm sure the McCain camp expected to spend time in MI, OH, PA, FL, WI, CO, and MN in the final month. Spending the final few weeks of the election defending FL, NC, IN, and NV was not what they were looking for at all.

Second, I don't think Michigan was a good target in the first place, nor was Minnesota. Their best chance of flipping a Great Lakes/Upper Midwestern state was Wisconsin. It was closer in the last election (Kerry won it by only 0.38%) and doesn't have hard-hit towns like Detroit (huge black population; unemployment), Flint (unemployment and angry unions), and Ann Arbor (big college town).

It'll be interesting to see what McCain chooses to do with NH and ME. They will encounter a massive ground game from the Obama camp, no doubt.

MCCain needs to pull a rabbit out of his hat Tuesd...

2008-10-03T17:31:00.000-04:00

MCCain needs to pull a rabbit out of his hat Tuesday. This is the only moment where he could get lucky aside from something insane happening. Early voting has already started. Obama will, at worse, tie in the economic debate Oct 15th. Tuesday or never or McCain to close this race IMO.

Here's a scenario that looks quite promising for t...

2008-10-03T16:57:00.000-04:00

Here's a scenario that looks quite promising for them. First, they compete hard in CO. But even if McCain loses the Kerry States + IA, NM and CO, they still could win the election by flipping NH + the 1 Maine EV.

I believe this is McCain's final Hail Mary attempt. He obviously can't pull out of all the states he was trying to flip at one time, so he started with Michigan. He isn't flipping Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Minnesota either. He knows this. What he is going to do is start gradually shifting his operations to defensive states (Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, NC). Colorado looks really bad for him now, so he is thinking, I am going to lose Colorado, Iowa and NM. That gets Obama to 273. So, his best path to victory becomes precisely what you described. Flip NH (where he actually has a chance). That makes it 269-269, which goes to Obama. So, he then tries to flip ME-1 to win 270-268. That is clearly what his strategy appears to be developing into. Somehow go on an incredible run where he holds onto VA, FL, OH, IN, NC...then flip NH and ME-1. Longest of longshots, but probably his best chance to win at this point.

My question is: If McCain is right to leave Michi...

2008-10-03T15:59:00.000-04:00

My question is: If McCain is right to leave Michigan and all but 1 poll show it pretty close, what does that imply about any skewness in polling data from other states? That is, are things worse for McCain everywhere than public polls suggest?

WI and MN have 15 to 20 media markets to buy in co...

2008-10-03T15:56:00.000-04:00

WI and MN have 15 to 20 media markets to buy in collectively and a ton of ground to cover.

MI has one large media market, five smaller media markets, and people living more compact giving up less ground to cover.

I do not understand the logic of staying in MN and WI and giving up MI. MI is the bellweather of the the eastern part of the Midwest and IA is the bellweather of the upper Midwest. Both are double digit Obama.

McCain should pull completely out of the upper Midwest and aim at saving IN, holding OH, and pulling a rabbit out of his ass in western PA. The Progressive Range of the Upper Midwest is a waste of money for McCain, especially in this economy.

pdb said: The Obama campaign is still pushing har...

2008-10-03T15:51:00.000-04:00

pdb said: The Obama campaign is still pushing hard in Montana.

That's right pdb - what the Obama internals are showing is that Ron Paul is on the ballot here and there haven't been any polls with him included. Since Paul is wildly populare in MT and beat McCain in the prima-caucus, he'll strip away a lot of McCain votes. The realistic MT numbers are probably more like the polling from back in July, not the polling now.

On choosing to leave Michigan, versus Wisconsin or...

2008-10-03T15:40:00.000-04:00

On choosing to leave Michigan, versus Wisconsin or Minnesota, isn't McCain also making a bad choice when considering the number of electoral votes? There are only 10 in these other states, and the blog here suggests that they have less of a return on investment for McCain. Then again, perhaps he needed to cut in a place where he was spending more money than WI or MN. Hmmmm.

Michigan is -15 on average on the issues for McCai...

2008-10-03T15:35:00.000-04:00

Michigan is -15 on average on the issues for McCain with the economy at -23. Similar trends and numbers exist in WI, IA, and MN. Bagging those may be next for McCain.

As a native Hoosier, I can safely say if a Republican Presidential nominee is spending money in IN with less than five weeks to go, then two things are true: 1) the GOP brand name is beyond repair, and 2) nationally, the candidate is dead.

McCain is akin to Hitler in early 1945 and Obama is like the allies in Europe. McCain is being pinched into giving up the eastern front (PA) and pinched in the west (MN, IA, WI, and MN) and he is forced to defend occupied France (Ohio) and home turf of Germany (Indiana).

As said before, McCain is not going to have it easy in IN. It is not like any other year and this state is trending independent since Evan Bayh was elected governor in 1988. Libertarian Barr and independent Barr will pull votes from the GOP in this state and they ignored it. Bad move.

I'd like to see the ROI for all of the states.

2008-10-03T15:26:00.000-04:00

I'd like to see the ROI for all of the states.

The affiliates gathering the data for SUSA were Ro...

2008-10-03T15:20:00.001-04:00

The affiliates gathering the data for SUSA were Rochester Alexandria and Duluth, correct?

Duluth is the only one that worries me. I think it could use a Biden visit maybe.

Alan - cities resident here.

All I see are Obama and Ron Paul lawn signs. I don't see GOP induced excitement. The non-blue element is the Barr/3rd party/I'm disgusted one, I think. Anecdotal and visual, but there it is.

Just in case this hasn't been posted yet. The Oba...

2008-10-03T15:20:00.000-04:00

Just in case this hasn't been posted yet. The Obama campaign is still pushing hard in Montana. TV advertising has continued and they are cycling through two to four different commercials each day. We are also getting GOTV e-mails here in Wyoming to go help in Montana on the weekends. The internals must show that MT is closer than the polls are showing.

"jakam said... Yeah, those SUSA Minnesota numbe...

2008-10-03T15:07:00.000-04:00

"jakam said...

Yeah, those SUSA Minnesota numbers are garbage. Nate should feed them into his model, and let his model laugh at them as it digests it."

The REASON why the SUSA polls tend to be all over the place is that they don't weight by party ID. So, the try and get the right demographics by age and race, but with a small sample size they can get a sample that's totally SKEWED for one candidate or another.

Or in this case they wind up with too many Republicans and right-wingers among young voters and middle-aged voters. Suddenly Obama is winning the elderly, McCain's best category, while only carrying under 30's by 4%?

NONSENSE! That flat can't possibly be right.

IF Obama were winning Minnesota seniors McCain wouldn't win a single age group! He'd be down 15% or more.

I haven't seen any studies, but I'd bet the only states where Obama is winning retirees by 5% or more are Massachusetts and Vermont. Obama is probably doing alright with retirees in Florida, but they tend to be Northern Democrats transplanted to FL.

I hate to disappoint the Obama supporters but the ...

2008-10-03T14:57:00.000-04:00

I hate to disappoint the Obama supporters but the Minnesota numbers may make some sense. I lived in Minnesota when Democrats lost everything (1978), and Coleman won the Wellstone seat when the Democratic party picked a weak replacement. Minnesota has two things going for John McCain. 1) Western and southern Minnesota as well as the Iron Range is a lot like the Dakotas. There are a lot of prairie populists who are conservative on social issues and almost socialist on economics. 2) Minnesota has an independent streak and the independent candidate for the Senate now has 19% support and that is rising. I would not be surprised if his supporters also support Nader, Barr, or some other independent candidate and independent candidates as a group get as much as 10% of the vote there. (My daughter is one of those potential voters.) So as long as McCain's populist message is believable, he has a shot in Minnesota.

"...to win the battle rather than the war..."Does ...

2008-10-03T14:47:00.000-04:00

"...to win the battle rather than the war..."

Does this mean that McCain failed to understand the difference between tactics and strategy?

And, in case you missed it, read the Rolling Stone article on McCain's past -- what makes him the creep he currently is.

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/coverstory/make_believe_maverick_the_real_john_mccain

Those of you who think Florida may be harder for M...

2008-10-03T14:45:00.000-04:00

Those of you who think Florida may be harder for McCain to win than other states where Obama is leading a bit lately are ignoring the fact that in Florida, elections are very stealable. We don't know what the participants in the recent secret meeting of Republicans in Florida talked about, but you don't have to be paranoid to strongly suspect that vote-suppression and vote-counting tampering were probably on the agenda.

So please update the scenario analysis to replace ...

2008-10-03T14:44:00.000-04:00

So please update the scenario analysis to replace the irrelevant "Obama loses OH/MI" with "Obama loses OH/PA".

Randall, thanks for that answer. I think I'll fam...

2008-10-03T14:43:00.000-04:00

Randall, thanks for that answer. I think I'll familiarize myself a little more with intrade before asking somewhat simple questions like that.

Friend of my dad, a labor organizer in MI has this...

2008-10-03T14:42:00.000-04:00

Friend of my dad, a labor organizer in MI has this to say

"I smell a Karl Rove-republican dirty trick here.
The ads are still running, but it would take a couple of days to pull.
I haven't checked on his staff yet.
I think either the State R pary will pickup the slack OR the 527's will step in and that gives McCain deneyability when they start slashing. I think we are about to see the vicious and or racist shit start."

new thread

2008-10-03T14:35:00.001-04:00

new thread