Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Pennsylvania Scorecard

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2009-09-06T05:18:33.267-04:00

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2009-03-26T23:31:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-11T03:45:00.001-04:00

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2009-02-10T06:43:00.000-05:00

The vast and terrific improvement in Pennsylvania ...

2008-08-28T18:16:00.000-04:00

The vast and terrific improvement in Pennsylvania shatters everyone. It is good job. Does anyone know which are the place which have a fast growth in every sector? Please let everyone know this.

ebinezer
Pennsylvania Alcohol Addiction Treatment

Oops. 0.3% off =(Looks like my model needs a few t...

2008-04-27T03:40:00.000-04:00

Oops. 0.3% off =(

Looks like my model needs a few tweaks.

Obama being up early and Clinton coming on late is...

2008-04-22T19:47:00.000-04:00

Obama being up early and Clinton coming on late is consistent with everything I've seen thus far. It was exactly that way in Texas.

I still believe that the Rooney endorsement has a bigger impact than most believe.

Great blog. Keep up the good work.

I live in the Pittsburgh Suburbs. I echo what was...

2008-04-22T19:22:00.000-04:00

I live in the Pittsburgh Suburbs. I echo what was posted by others. I can tell you from watching years of PA Politics, the results from Allegheny and Philadelphia Counties usually come in first.

Yes, as anonymous pointed out above, there were times when Philly was slow. But, that is not the usual occurrence. I remember watching the returns from the Wofford/Thornburg US Senate race back in the early 1990s (pre-internet, this was on TV). In that race, Pittsburgh and Philly came in first.

You should expect to see a surprisingly large lead for BHO in the first hour or so of results counting. Then, those numbers will get closer.

Anyone with news of miscounts by the evil machines...

2008-04-22T19:12:00.000-04:00

Anyone with news of miscounts by the evil machines, please post. I believe that many of the polls are off because the machines are miscounting. Pennsylvania has the longest history, actually, of doctored votes and miscalculatings electronic machines.

from FirstRead earlier regarding the timing of Phi...

2008-04-22T18:45:00.000-04:00

from FirstRead earlier regarding the timing of Philly returns:

"Keep this in mind: While the Philly region has reported its vote fairly quickly the last two election cycles, before 2004, the vote count has been very slow from the area. If the vote count is slow in this area tonight, then expect a couple of things: 1) the networks and AP will hold off on calling this race too quickly and 2) Clinton could have what appears to be a VERY big lead in early returns since most of Obama's vote is in the Philly media market."

11% in metro pittsburgh is unlikely to go plus 36 ...

2008-04-22T17:50:00.000-04:00

11% in metro pittsburgh is unlikely to go plus 36 for HRC- can't be right.

would would be that she will only win by less than 9 points.

Numbers...confusing! Can't you just make a funny v...

2008-04-22T16:13:00.000-04:00

Numbers...confusing! Can't you just make a funny video like this guy? http://www.236.com/video/?embed_video=1509327826

An Obama 3 point lead in leaked exits would be hug...

2008-04-22T15:22:00.000-04:00

An Obama 3 point lead in leaked exits would be huge. Why? Because it means that a double digit loss isn't likely. Clinton's going to win the state; the question is how it will affect the big picture.

Wow - hardly anyone lives in northwest Pennsylvani...

2008-04-22T15:21:00.000-04:00

Wow - hardly anyone lives in northwest Pennsylvania!

Or is it just that they're all Republicans?

Does anyone know of someplace that will text me re...

2008-04-22T15:13:00.000-04:00

Does anyone know of someplace that will text me returns from PA as they come in? I'm going nuts trying to find something. Didn't think it would be this hard. Thanks!

Reports always come in from Philly and its suburbs...

2008-04-22T15:09:00.000-04:00

Reports always come in from Philly and its suburbs first. I know that's backwards from a lot of states, but it is a truism in Pennsylvania.

http://pennsylvania-primary.com/2008/04/22/what-to-watch-for-during-the-day/

I agree with you and I believed the conventional w...

2008-04-22T07:26:00.000-04:00

I agree with you and I believed the conventional wisdom that usually rural parts of the state report their results first. Usually, a lead doesn't change too much and if the cities report first, that should be good for Obama as you said-at least initially.

jr,That's interesting ... I think I was casting as...

2008-04-22T05:53:00.000-04:00

jr,

That's interesting ... I think I was casting aspersions on Philadelphia based on the problems that cities like Milwaukee, St. Louis and Cleveland have.

It's actually a fairly big plus for Obama if the election stays closer for longer into the evening, IMO.

Politico says in PA, early results usually come fr...

2008-04-22T05:27:00.000-04:00

Politico says in PA, early results usually come from the cities first.

Here's the money quote

The cities and suburbs usually report their returns first, which gives the candidate favored in those areas a quick – and sometimes fleeting – lead. The conservative-leaning small towns through the center of the state usually filter in much later in the evening.
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=753FC771-3048-5C12-00929EBFEB1A61A1

My instinct tells me 12 point HRC win, but I hope ...

2008-04-22T03:59:00.000-04:00

My instinct tells me 12 point HRC win, but I hope it's closer than that.

Looks like I'm in first. My own models have it at ...

2008-04-22T00:59:00.000-04:00

Looks like I'm in first. My own models have it at 8.9%, with the low and high ends of the confidence interval at 6.2% and 11.6%