Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Why Are There No Black Senators?

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2009-10-09T08:19:23.546-04:00

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I recently came accross your blog and have been re...

2009-04-09T04:52:00.000-04:00

I recently came accross your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I dont know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.

Joannah

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2009-03-28T05:07:00.000-04:00

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The more black people vote the more black people w...

2009-01-18T06:42:00.000-05:00

The more black people vote the more black people will be put in power.

Hi Nate,Great blog. I wrote a book on race and red...

2009-01-17T13:52:00.000-05:00

Hi Nate,

Great blog. I wrote a book on race and redistricting, The Paradox of Representation (Princeton University Press 1997) which also uses logit models like the one you present here. There is a real problem with your logit model. Due to the great increase in the number of black-majority districts, there has been a real decline in the number of 35-50% black districts since 1990. Of the few remaining ones, many have a combined Latino and black majority in which blacks dominate due to lower Latino turnout rates, often related to citizenship issues. Logit is sensitive to the results in the few cases in the range. As a result, your model indicates that it is easier for an African American to win than it actually is. Models from 1990 indicate lower probabilities of election at 40% black than in models from 1992 or any subsequent year. Models from state house and state senate races have similar results to U.S. House models from 1990. Great idea to look at Senate races in light of U.S. House probabilities though.

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2009-01-16T04:39:00.000-05:00

The comments about blacks being racist regarding c...

2009-01-13T23:55:00.000-05:00

The comments about blacks being racist regarding congressional districts is ignorant. It bespeaks a lack of understanding of who runs for office, how the party's view primary elections, and the redistricting process. Whites rarely run in districts that are >60% black, so it's not an issue of blacks being racist and only voting for blacks.

Okay, so reality check:Who cares?Seriously, if you...

2009-01-09T02:01:00.000-05:00

Okay, so reality check:

Who cares?

Seriously, if you only are assured of being elected if 60% of your district is of your race... isn't this actually -better off- than white candidates?

Sounds like racism to me, but not against blacks. Indeed, it sounds like racism against whites - even in as low as 25% black, you can get a black representative, but in only 60% black (as opposed to 75%) you are assured of getting a black rep.

Doesn't this seem like it is more racism on the part of blacks themselves? Not that people LIKE saying blacks are racist, but they are, and very much so. Its kind of ironic really, but perhaps unsurprising; they are poor and uneducated, a recipe for racism, and many blacks criticize whites for their lot in life (rather than, say, themselves).

There's a reason blacks have been down on the bottom for 140 years, and its not because white people are racists. Asians have come to this country and prospered, and we put them in interment camps during WWII. Clearly, racism isn't the problem.

The House of Representatives will ALWAYS have a over-representation of the most prevalent population group, simply because that population group is the most prevalent one; I would expect the same for the senate. Indeed, if electing someone of a given race is oh so important, the blacks are lucky they have as many reps as they do.

Racism cuts both ways, and I think this does more to make blacks look bad than whites.

Congressional "packing" of black voters has hurt D...

2009-01-07T14:52:00.000-05:00

Congressional "packing" of black voters has hurt Democrats in the long run. Ruy Texeira has done some good analysis about how it has made many districts in the South uber-conservative (as the primary democratic voters, African-Americans or Latinos, are not present) and discourages black turnout. For example, if you are black and live in Mississippi, you know that the statewide officeholders will be Republican and your district will stay black Democrat, then you usually don't have to vote (Obama's presidential run being the exception). Stu Rothenberg also has pointed out that white voters have preconceived expectations of black Democrats--namely, they expect them to be much more liberal than the mainstream. Rothenberg adds that it's not necessarily wrong (for example, we expect most Southern white Republicans to be more conservative than the mainstream) of people to do that, that's just been the history of most black Democrats in America. Thus, in culturally conservative states most black candidates will have to fight the notion that they are "too liberal." The other issue facing black candidates is that most hail from urban areas, which can be a turn-off to suburban and rural voters in a statewide election (Obama's already been hailed as the first truly urban president since WWII). Again, most non-urban voters have preconceived expectations of city politicos (usually unfavorable) and many resent how much a city dominates their statewide affairs. Since most states require a broad coalition of urban/suburban/rural voters to win statewide office, most black candidates are in a bind. It's no surprise then that Illinois has had so much success in fielding black statewide candidates; Chicago is large enough to trump downstate white voters.

I am surprised that Maryland has lacked black representation, but then again it did recently have an Irish Catholic as mayor of mostly black Baltimore. New York is also a surprise, as many politicos have relied on NYC to override upstate opposition. I forsee both changing over time however.

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I said "no he isn't against hunting guns, he just ...

2009-01-07T00:33:00.000-05:00

I said "no he isn't against hunting guns, he just wants to make sure that gangsters and mobsters don't have guns to hurt people."

It's already illegal for anyone to use guns to hurt people excluding self defense and defense of others. More laws and restrictions on gun ownership won't stop that kind of activity.

Criminals already break the law, and passing another law will not change that. The only people affected by gun control are those who obey the law in the first place.

@Douglas- got ya- Thanksaflindst: Very helpful wit...

2009-01-06T22:21:00.000-05:00

@Douglas- got ya- Thanks

aflindst: Very helpful with the graph- any idea how NRS generated the probabilities in the table?

PS it is amazing what people can and do actually do.

http://vimeo.com/1778399

mhz: by that reasoning, then should we all refrain...

2009-01-06T19:23:00.000-05:00

mhz: by that reasoning, then should we all refrain from using the words "cancer," "nuke," or "genocide" because they also refer to things that are, or have been at some point in the past, horrible?

the conditions in ghettos have often been, and sadly remain, horrible. that does not render the word "ghetto" offensive. a word that offends is not one that simply refers to something with negative qualities - it is one that is, e.g., profane, a slur, or has historically been used as an epithet.

i don't see that here and you haven't showed it to me.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8bjY6L_MUkY

2009-01-06T16:08:00.000-05:00

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8bjY6L_MUkY

@Douglas-Specifically I was thinking of the Warsaw...

2009-01-06T15:08:00.000-05:00

@Douglas-Specifically I was thinking of the Warsaw Ghetto during the Holocaust years. I suspect there other examples that have less video footage associated with them.

This is about statistics. I tried to skim over al...

2009-01-06T14:54:00.000-05:00

This is about statistics. I tried to skim over all the comments, but I don't think this has been said.

"The chances of having a black Representative are virtually nil until the African-American share of the population hits 25 percent, at which time it begins to accelerate rapidly until the black population hits 60 percent, after which point having a black congressman is virtually certain."

This explanation seems to follow the form of the plot presented, which is claimed to be a parametric model arising from logistic regression. A problem I see is that the sigmoidal shape is an artifact of the logistic regression model. It is simply the shape of the inverse logit function:

inv.logit(x) = exp(x)/(1+exp(x))

Perhaps a helpful plot to include would be an empirical probability function estimate based on sample proportions:

P(congressman black | popblack < p) ~= sum(I(congressman black|popblack < p))/sum(I(popblack < p))

And comment on the shape of that.

Unless the shape of the empirical function is approximately (relative to the sample size (435 I guess?)) sigmoidal in shape, a logistic regression may be invalid. Or at least it will not be as trustworthy as the empirical function for making claims about the shape of the "true" function. Please include this plot you are able.

You may have simply omitted discussion of the part where you check the shape, or I may be incorrect; in either case, excuse me.

Silver's analysis is an excercise in deflection an...

2009-01-06T14:31:00.000-05:00

Silver's analysis is an excercise in deflection and yet another example of liberals in the chatter class avoiding the raw truth about white supremacy and racism in our nation..

Today in the chatter class the term of usage is to invoke "tribalism" of course such nonsense has not street cred or value in the real time.

Black americans are not brand new and the reason for an ALL WHITE Senate is a reflection of the myopic cultural underdevelopment of white voters in a our nation..

Silver's inferences mean nothing and cannot discount the lethal pathologies and legacy of our country's racism and white supremacy ..

The absence of Black candidates in national elections has always been because of the cultural blind spots of white voters one does not need diagrams etc to understand this truth..

mhz: because correct use of the word "ghetto" does...

2009-01-06T14:15:00.000-05:00

mhz: because correct use of the word "ghetto" does not move us back - ignorance and hypersensitivity do. while we're on the subject, though, what exactly is the "horrific history" of the use of the word ghetto?

1% of the US population is a black male with a HS ...

2009-01-06T13:14:00.000-05:00

1% of the US population is a black male with a HS diploma. 1%.

And yet somehow we are expecting there to be 12 senators or something? Yet, not a single mention of this fact by Nate. Madness. It all starts in school. Let's demand change in education, no more special interests.

If we expect to see more black members of government, esp US Senators, we must reform education. We must simply end the Democratic monopoly on education and start demanding accountability and results, or we need to replace teachers with better, more highly qualified and motivated, and better compensated teachers.

M- too answer your question. Carol Mosely Braun go...

2009-01-06T12:51:00.000-05:00

M- too answer your question. Carol Mosely Braun got elected in 1992 by unseating a Conservative Democratic incumbent US Senator in the primary. Mosely Braun lost re-election in 1998 to a Conservative Republican- Peter Fitzgerald- who retired in 2004-because he was going to lose re-election. Barack Obama get elected in 2004 in a open seat election.

In other states.
California- Boxer and Feinstein were both elected in 1992-
Connecticut- Dodd and Lieberman have been in the US Senate since 1988.
Delaware- Biden has been in the US Senate since 1972- His son Beau will be taking over his seat in 2010- He will occupy that seat for another 34 years. Carper was elected in 2000-
Hawaii- Both HI US Senators have been in the US Senate since HI been a State- Inouye since 1962-
Matsunaga from 1976-1990- Akaka from 1990.
Maine- Both Republican US Senators Snowe and Collins are Centrist Moderate Females.
Maryland- when Paul Sarbanes retired in 2006- NAACP chairman and former Baltimore Congressman Kweisi Mfume ran but lost in the Democratic primary to Ben Cardin -the senior Congressman from the Baltimore Area-because of the issue of electability. Mikulski has been in the US Senate since 1986- If she retires in 2010 or 2016 expect Lt Governor Anthony Brown to replace Mikulski.
Michigan- Carl Levin has been in the US Senate since 1978. Don Reigle was US Senator from 1976-1994- 1994 was a GOP year. Debbie Stabenow has been US Senator since 2000.
Minnesota- Wellstone has been US Senator since 1990-until his death in 2002- The Coleman's 2002 victory is a fluke. Al Franken is not up for re-election in 2014. Amy Klobuchar was just elected in 2006- She will be in the US Senate for a period of time.
New Jersey- Bradley and Lautenberg were in the US Senate during the 1980's and 1990's. from 1996-2000 it was Lautenberg and Torrecelli. (Torecelli and Corzine),(Corzine and Lautenberg)(Lautenberg and Menendez). Lautenberg is going to retire in 2014.
New York- Moynihan from 1976-2000- Clinton from 2000-2009 when she becomes Secretary of State. Caroline Kennedy will be US Senator for a long time if she is appointed. Schumer has been US Senator since 1998.
Oregon- Since Packwood and Hatfield retired in 1996- Wyden has been in the US Senate since 1996. Smith lost in 2008 to Jeff Merkley who is going to be in the US Senate for a long period of time.
Pennsylvania- Specter and Heinz were Moderate Republicans. When Heinz died in 1991- Harris Wofford took over lost in 1994 to Senator Sodomy. Sodomy lost in 2006 to Bob Casey jr- Casey will be in the US Senate for a long time.
Rhode Island- Pell has been US Senator from 1960-1996- Reed has been in the US Senate since 1996. The Chaffees have been in the US Senate since 1976-2006- Whitehouse will be in the US Senate for multiple terms.
Vermont- Leahy has been in the US Senate since 1974 running for re-election in 2010. Stafford(1970-1988)Jeffords(1988-2006) were moderate Republicans. Sanders was just elected in 2006.
Washington- Murray and Cantwell have been in the US Senate since 2000- They will be around for a couple of terms.
Wisconsin- Kohl and Fiengold have been their for a period of time.

Had H. Carl McCall ran for the 2000 NY US Senate Seat instead of Hillary Clinton.

I really don't understand how Congressional distri...

2009-01-06T11:52:00.000-05:00

I really don't understand how Congressional districts affect Senate elections. Your comparisons don't work.

I also don't understand why you never brought up the issues of incumbency. The biggest road block to change in Congress (House or Senate) is the incumbent advantage with money and coverage. This goes double for minorites who try to compete with the incumbent.

Your fancy statistics tell me nothing about the insitutional difficulties in running for the House or Senate. Gerrymandering is only one of many issues.

I'd like to see some mention of incumbency and how...

2009-01-06T08:44:00.000-05:00

I'd like to see some mention of incumbency and how that plays in. Incumbent are re-elected at astounding rates. How many states would vote for a black candidate but haven't had a race without an incumbent? Massachusetts comes to mind as a state where voters would elect a black candidate, but since their two Senators have been around since forever, they have never really had the chance.

@jd2718, Robert, othersThough this was already poi...

2009-01-06T07:55:00.000-05:00

@jd2718, Robert, others

Though this was already pointed out earlier, Nate is clearly giving the *expected* number of black senators, not the probability of getting at least one.

And, to drive the point home, even when looking at two senate positions in a given state, if you assume that each senate position will go to a black candidate with a given probability, the expected number of black senators for that state is twice that probability.

In short, give Nate a break, he knows his math!

Based on his assumptions Nate is quite correct to ...

2009-01-06T06:01:00.000-05:00

Based on his assumptions Nate is quite correct to multiply the "expected" numbers of senators per election by 2 - i.e. each senatorial election in Maryland should produce 0.152 black senators, so two elections produce 0.304.

This 0.304 is comprised of

0 senators 71.9% of the time
1 senator 25.8% of the time
2 senators 2.3% of the time

What is moot is whether the "first" result affects the second - e.g. if MD elects one black senator does that make it more or less likely to elect a second simultaneously.

With senatorial longevity being what it is a further exercise would be to look back to the date of the last change of senator and see what the PVI and Black %s were then in the respective states.

Oh, and I also second the comments about the UK's Boundary Commission - it's not perfect but it's an awful lot better than the US method.

@jd2719 (or anybody else) Please do a quick walk t...

2009-01-06T03:24:00.000-05:00

@jd2719 (or anybody else)

Please do a quick walk through of where Nate got his Y-axis numbers for the graph and his third column for the table in his post. I am sorry if it is obvious, but I would like to see an example of the math he used to get those of percentages.

The Graph-
What data is he using and how is he treating it to get the "%chance that a Rep in a given Con district is AA".

The Table:
It is not obvious to me how the "Black" numbers and the "PVI" numbers can generate the %probabilities he reports.

one example for graph and one example for the table would do it I am sure.

PLEASE SOMEONE??

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Why Are There No Black Senators?

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@jd2718, Robert, othersThough this was already poi...

Based on his assumptions Nate is quite correct to ...

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