Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: The Number That Explains It All

This presidential election is more than just an hi...

2008-10-26T12:07:00.000-04:00

This presidential election is more than just an historic event, it is a defining moment in our history. Barack Obama will be one of the greatest presidents that we have ever had.

John McCain might have been a better choice in 2000, he is not the change America needs now. He has 10 days left in his campaign to salvage his reputation and heal wounds within his own party.

McCain often reminds us that he has been reaching across the aisle for 26 years. If McCain doesn't finish this campaign with dignity and humility, nobody will be reaching back across the aisle to him when he returns to the US Senate.

MrInsight22 wrote:"Maybe McCain is trying to lose"...

2008-10-25T02:25:00.000-04:00

MrInsight22 wrote:

"Maybe McCain is trying to lose"

I've been considering this seriously for a while.
Was choosing Palin his masterstroke, not his fatal error?
Is ignoring (or at least under-schmoozing) the battlegrounds in VA, PA and OH totally deliberate?

But why should he do this?

Perhaps he sees it as his last great act of public service. Perhaps he's so appalled by the the kind of party the GOP has become that he wants to force a cathartic choice on it. Either it sticks with the neocons and the religious right, dooming itself to irrelevance in a USA which WILL be changed by Obama, or it purges itself, or even splits into two conservative groupings, one full of maniacs, and one not.

Or perhaps it's more personal, it's McCain's revenge on Bush for 2000, a dish best served cold - i.e. once Bush is out in the cold and can't do anything about it.

Just my 3 cents' worth of food for thought.

I e-mailed 538 requesting that Mule Rider be outed...

2008-10-24T18:21:00.000-04:00

I e-mailed 538 requesting that Mule Rider be outed from this forum. I'm all for free speech but once you start bandying threats about, you've crossed the line. Personally, I'd like to track his server down and prosecute him but I'll settle for a concerted effort to get this offensive troll out of here.

Join me? 538dotcom@gmail.com

Neo-conservative Republican dude just came out for...

2008-10-24T18:14:00.000-04:00

Neo-conservative Republican dude just came out for Barack on Hardball. He went even further by saying McCain is displaying signs of senility and that Palin is a frightening prospect. Hmmm....

Someone in McCain HQ: 'Hey I got an idea! In the...

2008-10-24T18:10:00.000-04:00

Someone in McCain HQ: 'Hey I got an idea! In the midst of a financial crisis spurred on by greed and excess in the finance sector, resulting in a $1 trillion dollar bailout by the taxpayers, while those CEOs responsible take multi-million dollar severance packages, all while our campaign supports an indefinite war costing $3B/week, let's focus our economic rhetoric on opposing any tax increases for the wealthy and use a fictitious plumber making $250K as our mascot.'

McCain: 'Hmmm, I like it. Let's take it one step further and insinuate those opposed to this game plan are socialists.'

Semi-competent adviser: 'But you yourself opposed those same tax cuts in question.'

McCain team in unison: 'And your point?'

I can't imagine why it isn't resonating with the middle class.

I can say with 90% certainty he was referencing Ge...

2008-10-24T17:59:00.000-04:00

I can say with 90% certainty he was referencing George and Laura Bush's votes for McCain.

Real Joe said... 2 votes for McCainIf one of t...

2008-10-24T17:44:00.000-04:00

Real Joe said...

2 votes for McCain

If one of the Obama supporters here posted "2 votes for Obama", you'd be asking hium about voter fraud. I'm just going to assume that you found asomeone as misguided as yourself who'd marry you.

One thing that strikes me when McCain keeps talkin...

2008-10-24T17:35:00.000-04:00

One thing that strikes me when McCain keeps talking about Obama's "spread the wealth" comment, is that many Americans who are struggling probably like the idea of spreading the wealth, but McCain doesn't realize it. He only thinks from the viewpoint of a rich person.

That struck me, too -- I really thought it was a counterproductive line for McCain. Particularly in the weeks following press reports about Wall Street bankers giving themselves huge bonuses and then getting bailed out by the government, and in a year when the wealth disparity between the rich and the middle class in the US had finally reached levels only seen once before, just before the Great Depression.

Mule Rider said... Here's a joke for you librul...

2008-10-24T17:06:00.000-04:00

Mule Rider said...

Here's a joke for you libruls, how many blacks can you get into the white house at one time?

I'm guessing two: Obama as president and Colin Powell as a cabinet member, probably something defense-related. Which is of coiurse the same number that Bush had in his first term (Powell and Rice).

(Of course, one could argue that Rice is more authentically 'black' than either Powell or Obama.)

There once was a eunuch named mule riderWho's assh...

2008-10-24T16:51:00.000-04:00

There once was a eunuch named mule rider

Who's asshole could not have been wider

He was often obscene

In truth rather mean

But as a whore he's quite a provider

With all due respect, your assumption that Governo...

2008-10-24T16:49:00.000-04:00

With all due respect, your assumption that Governor Douglas is "safe" doesn't tell the whole story. There is a very real possibility that Governor Douglas wins a plurality of votes but loses the election. Unless he wins more that 50%, the legislature (which has veto proof majorities in both the House and Senate in favor of the Democrats) will then make the call. There is a good chance that the Progressive or Democratic candidate could throw his or her support to the candidate that took more votes between the two. If that were to happen, then, arguably, the State House could, with some level of confidence that it wouldn't come back to bite them in the butt, vote for either Pollina or Symington... This is NOT a done deal for Governor Douglas, and he knows it. If it was, he wouldn't be running such an aggressive campaign. Finally, there's a darn good chance that, given the state of our State, those folks that Governor Douglas is counting on right now decide, while they're voting for Obama, to go ahead and vote for either Pollina or Symington as well!

"Mule Rider with ID ending 424 has intelligent dis...

2008-10-24T16:38:00.000-04:00

"Mule Rider with ID ending 424 has intelligent discourse.

Mule Rider with ID ending 549 is a nametroll."

Actually, neither is intelligent and I suspect it is the same person posting with both accounts. The AssRider of old was very bi-polar. The "name troll" posts the exact same crap the real Ass Rider posts when he is off his meds. The Ass Rider posts the same jibberish minus the hate when he is on meds.

It is simply the case that each mood swing has its own Mule Rider account. He has a love/hate relationship with attention and this is the best way to get it.

Either way Ass Rider is a dumb ass troll that needs to be banned if not outright ignored.

It's over for McCain.KY, TN, AR, LA too.Stop prete...

2008-10-24T16:35:00.000-04:00

It's over for McCain.

KY, TN, AR, LA too.

Stop pretending it's not over stop being a concern troll ANYONE! But still vote. Vote early... and vote once.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/24/pain...

2008-10-24T16:27:00.000-04:00

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/24/pains-makeup-stylist-fetches-highest-salary-in-2-week-period/?hp

So, Palin's makeup artist gets 22,800 for the first two weeks of October, and her hair stylist gets 10,000.

Just another regular gal.

@sfergus483:Well, there are some pretty big storie...

2008-10-24T16:26:00.002-04:00

@sfergus483:

Well, there are some pretty big stories here in Western PA today: A major bank merger (PNC buying National City), a labor dispute in the regional transit system, a Steeler getting busted with pot, the Palin visit, and the sage of this sad young woman. Certainly the impact of the Barracuda's "major policy address" will be, umm, muted.

We've lived in Pittsburgh for 7-1/2 years, coming from DC. It's true that the Democrats around here are on the conservative side, but they're still conservative Democrats. The local suburbs are Republican-leaning, but for the most part they aren't wingnuts; they just don't especially like paying taxes.

With the enormous registration advantage Democrats enjoy here, I'm hard-pressed to believe that McCain could make enough inroads in Western PA to swing the state if he had 11 years, let alone 11 days.

"listicc"

I would never compare Obama with Reagan or Goldwat...

2008-10-24T16:26:00.001-04:00

I would never compare Obama with Reagan or Goldwater

brerger

games: I am a long time lurker, first time poster....

2008-10-24T16:26:00.000-04:00

games: I am a long time lurker, first time poster. I had to do it to express my admiration at your response to Matthew. Wow! Thank you for articulating perfectly what I am constantly thinking while reading posts about the horror of taxes.

-diathral-

here in Pittsburgh, the lead story on all the news...

2008-10-24T16:22:00.000-04:00

here in Pittsburgh, the lead story on all the news stattions is the hoax from the Todd girl. Tone is a little on the wasting taxpayer money and police time when we have "real crime" to deal with.

Obama = Our Reagan.or our Barry Goldwater.or our F...

2008-10-24T16:20:00.000-04:00

Obama = Our Reagan.

or our Barry Goldwater.
or our FDR.

This time the youth have spoken.

Kurt said...Moonbeam said..."foreverblu said...'Du...

2008-10-24T16:12:00.000-04:00

Kurt said...

Moonbeam said...
"foreverblu said...
'During the third debate, did you notice when McCain made such a big deal that Obama thought Joe the Plumber was "rich" because he earned $250,000. Now, that was a tone deaf remark.'"
....

Oh. My. God.

I just "got" this moment for the first time. McCain said "Congratulations Joe, you're rich!"

I thought he was saying "good on your for being a productive engine of the economy."

But he was being sarcastic. Insinuating that Joe's economic future was being held back (by taxes).

Is that how other people read it? Wowowow.

I remember McCain saying that and having a weird "huh?" feeling, and at the time I thought it was a botched prepared line or something ... and he had that creepy-ass grin on his face as if he was cracking a joke, but it didn't match what I thought he was saying. I couldn't put my finger on what it was that bothered me about it until just now.

It think you guys are right -- we was saying that $250K/year isn't rich. This concept by itself isn't hard to defend (well-off? sure, but not "rich"), but him saying it in such a scoffing, sarcastic way is going beyond that: "This idiot thinks that $250K is rich! HAH! I pay people $250K to wipe my ass!!!"

When a substantial number of people are making $25K, this really is a horribly tone-deaf way to come across. ("Hey! Turns out I have to make 10 times as much money to even get up to 'not rich'! Well, as long as those who really are rich get their tax cut, that's all that matters!!!")

What a minifi gaffe. =)

What is the deal with that moron Fox exec? Yes, I ...

2008-10-24T16:09:00.000-04:00

What is the deal with that moron Fox exec? Yes, I know that is redundant.

How does this 20 year old stupid girls actions reflect on the candidates.

It sort of does on McCain, and not because she was working for the campaign. It is because, in typical incompetent fashion, he jumped all over it.

If it was true, how does that reflect on Obama or his campaign? It is not like it is the Obama campaign that has been stirring up hatred.

GaMeS said... Yeah, that Ashley Todd thing almo...

2008-10-24T16:08:00.000-04:00

GaMeS said...

Yeah, that Ashley Todd thing almost had me pissing my pants with laughter. =)

Really, what kind of a fucking idiot (or, as my word verification might say, a "uredab") carves a BACKWARD "B" in their face? Like she didn't know that mirrors have a backward image?

I mean, that's like sub-chimp-level retarded.
====
Games,
I attended a high school whose initials were D.V.. It never failed that, at the football games, I would see more than one idiot who clearly had used the mirror when writing "DV" on their faces with face paint. I suppose they didn't realize that the rest of us saw "VD." I always got a good laugh out of it.

toelent is the magic word this time.Would have been funnier if it was "toelint."

Obama is the black Bill Clinton combined with Dwig...

2008-10-24T16:04:00.000-04:00

Obama is the black Bill Clinton combined with Dwight Eisenhower. AKA complete dominance of democrats for at least 8 years unless the Palins get kicked out of the GOP

Ike was very steady and did the right thing. He had to foricbly integrate schools. A good choice. He was a good Republican long ago before the "Southern Strateg.y"

LMAO!!A Comment about the Robbery Hoax Superstar A...

2008-10-24T16:01:00.000-04:00

LMAO!!

A Comment about the Robbery Hoax Superstar Ashley Todd:

"What do you say to a McCain supporter with two black eyes? Nothing. You've already told her twice!"

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2008/10/24/2008-10-24_police_john_mccain_volunteer_ashley_todd.html

She looks horrible in the picture.. she must be mentally ill..

Matthew said...To "GaMeS" -- Yes, the pretty littl...

2008-10-24T15:58:00.000-04:00

Matthew said...

To "GaMeS" -- Yes, the pretty little graph (yeah, I had to look, despite my bar license, I'm not yet sure what words are) shows that Obama's plan is a percent or two better in the middle class range. However, that's only true if you believe Obama can fully implement all of his programs while still sticking to his quoted numbers.

By that logic, then, you must similarly discount everything McCain wants to do. Moreso, in fact, because he would face a Congress controlled by the opposition.

Matthew said....

Personally, I do not believe he can, and I believe taxes will be going up for far more than just those making $250,000 or more.

And you have nothing but your own gut reaction to base this on. You think he's a "tax and spend liberal," so you just assume he's lying and will raise taxes on far more people.

Because, I don't know, you must think liberals get off on raising taxes or something.

Seriously, we don't like it, either. But unlike the moronic right-wing ideologues, we believe in paying our bills.

That Tax Policy Center article I linked to projects that McCain would add $1.5 trillion more to the debt than Obama would.

For all your talk about Obama's big spending programs, McCain would spend even more -- that tax cut is a giant earmark for the top 1%, welfare for the rich paid for by inflation that effectively taxes the middle & working class and debt that will burden our children and the unborn.

So, really, who's being irresponsible here?

It's a fact that as your income goes up, you spend more on investment and less on consumption. Taxes are an investment in our nation's future, building infrastructure, protecting our borders, rebuilding after disasters ... all the things that are just too fucking big to be done privately. Because you spend more on investment as you move up the income ladder, so too should you spend more on taxes as a part of that investment.

So, here's a question: Why are the right-wingers so damned opposed to investing in their own country?

Seriously, I don't get how these jackoffs can scoff at the idea that paying taxes is patriotic. Really? You think supporting our troops is not patriotic? Well, where do you think their body armor, bullet, humvees, etc. come from? The Army Fairy?

To me, these assholes are saying they value having an extra couple of percent on everything past the first couple MILLION in a single year more than they value the lives of the soldiers who are overseas being KILLED to defend the rights (and property!) of those same assholes.

They're motherfucking ingrates, if you ask me.

Matthew said ....

We're going to have damn near 60 democrats in the senate, you're crazy if you don't think it's going to be social-program-central the next 4 years.

So, again, your argument hinges on phantom programs that no one has suggested, that they will want to add to the budget just for shits and giggles?

And you really think that will catch up with the $1.5 trillion of extra debt McCain would add?

And, for that matter, what do you consider a "social program"?

* All of Obama's tax credits are dependent on the recipient working, so it's certainly not "welfare."
* Investing in infrastructure ("green collar jobs," developing alternative energy)? No, that's really "public works" ... so unless the Hoover Dam is a "social program," this isn't it.
* Helping to pay for college in return for community service? OK, that's arguably a "social program," but at the same time you're getting them to contribute directly to the community. As far as I'm concerned, that's no different from public works (hiring people to do stuff that the community needs), and it's directed in a way that is investing in infrastructure (i.e. an educated, competitive workforce). But I'll spot you that one if you want to call it a social program. =)
* Health care? Well, McCain has a plan for health care, too (and a giant tax hike on benefits to boot!), so it's not entirely fair to single this out. On top of that, the whole reason we need health care reform is because the system doesn't work when left to private industry, as evidenced by our skyrocketing costs vis-a-vis countries with universal programs. So, when you really think about it, this isn't a "social program" so much as an investment: People will have more money to spend elsewhere (good for the economy) and people will get better preventative health care (reduce future costs of medicare). But, again, I'll let you call this one a social program if you really want. =)

So, other than health care (which McCain also tries to address) and allowing students to work for tuition (which we already have at a smaller scale in "work-study" programs, and we're already providing Stafford loans, Pell grants, etc. anyway), I really don't see the giant government bogeyman you guys are always talking about.

Matthew....
And to be clear, I'm for small government, and believe that GWB is certainly the worst president of my lifetime.

Well, no disagreement there. The biggest difference between us is that I want "small government" as "not intrusive, not neglectful, and not bigger than necessary to fulfill these two criteria." Some public goods simply cannot be left to the private sector -- it's the prisoner's dilemma, the collective action problem, the tragedy of the commons. Basic game theory predicts it and empirical studies prove it -- and that's why I'm a liberal and fucking proud of it.

p.s. squie!