Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Six Degrees of Swine Flu

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2009-10-10T06:34:29.833-04:00

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This is like the 50,000 people who claim to have b...

2009-05-02T17:18:00.000-04:00

This is like the 50,000 people who claim to have been at the game where Wilt Chamberlain scored 100 points...

This whole Hamthrax scare is ALL about the sordid decisions that are made ALL THE TIME to feed the 24/7 newswhores.

Thanks for continuing the stand up for rationality & analysis.

Tis scary i must admit but we have to wait it out ...

2009-05-01T22:53:00.000-04:00

Tis scary i must admit but we have to wait it out i guess.

get a load of this scary Report.

http://forecastfortomorrow.com/Files/swineflu.pdf

Dr. Toketee: see my comment above.

2009-05-01T17:51:00.000-04:00

Dr. Toketee: see my comment above.

There are two other assumptions (unstated) in your...

2009-05-01T17:24:00.000-04:00

There are two other assumptions (unstated) in your analysis:
1) No two individuals in the US know the SAME person infected with the swine flu.
2) All infections known to residents of the US are of people living in the US. So Grandma living back home in the old country doesn't count.

Both assumptions are likely to inflate your estimate of the number of cases that exist in the US.

Wow. Do any of your readers actually read? Your f...

2009-05-01T13:11:00.000-04:00

Wow. Do any of your readers actually read?

Your first paragraph cites that 3.2% of 1200 ADULTS know someone previously sicked by the swine flu.

So you "extrapolated" by taking 3.2% of the ENTIRE U.S. population?

It's only related to ADULTS, not the general population!

My lord, what an incompetent anaylsis.

Do we have any reason to believe that the people p...

2009-04-30T20:46:00.000-04:00

Do we have any reason to believe that the people polled know *unique* infected individuals? Otherwise, the conclusion drawn about total infected populace is fallacious. If everyone knows 290 people, those 290 people know another 290, and so on and so forth, and so it is not beyond reason to assume that some infected individuals overlap.

Of course, this is all silly, because the results of the poll, as noted in the article are probably nonsense.

One of my students told me that her doctor said sh...

2009-04-30T20:16:00.000-04:00

One of my students told me that her doctor said she had the swine flu. She also said that he said it was Influenza B, which is not the swine flu and is not even transmissible to pigs. She further said that the doctor said what she had could cross over to the swine flu, which is certainly not true. I don't think she was lying, but she certainly wasn't paying attention closely to what her doctor was saying. Either that or the doctor is an idiot.

there is more to this crap than you think, click m...

2009-04-30T18:18:00.000-04:00

there is more to this crap than you think, click my name for info
http://offers4u.info/

Interesting article. Where I'm from people are fre...

2009-04-30T13:25:00.000-04:00

Interesting article. Where I'm from people are freaking out about it too, so I created an ebook to help people out. You can download it a www.jamesryanhamilton.com/swineflu

JF Isher, I had the exact opposite response: how c...

2009-04-30T12:22:00.000-04:00

JF Isher, I had the exact opposite response: how can people know so few people?

I have 390 Facebook friends, and I know all of them. (There are about ten who I haven't met in person but who I have corresponded significantly with, e.g. writing a paper together.) Meanwhile, there are a huge number of people not in my FB friends list who I know.

I know at least 500 people from high school, and remember them. I have at least 50 relatives and in-laws. I remember at least 100 people from my BS (including teachers, dormmates, fellow students). I remember at least 50 from my first MS and at least 200 from my second MS. I remember at least 130 from the 11 places I've worked (and probably more like 300). I know around 50 former neighbours, roommates, and landlords. I conservatively remember about 10 people from a fan club, 100 people from some political action, 30 people from three different community access TV shows, 40 people from two different opera productions, 30 friends of my husband's, and 100 people from hubby/mother's church.

This doesn't even count people I've met at seminars, short courses, and parties. It doesn't service workers with whom I was friendly -- the stock clerk at my grocery store, the checkout clerk at the bookstore, the teller at my bank. I didn't count friends of my parents, nor did I count friends of my ex-boyfriends. I didn't count people with whom I have only exchanged a few email messages.

Do I know where all of these people are? No. Do I remember all of their names? At least 90% (if I knew their name) given a few days to think about it.

If someone told me, "Oh, Anders Nilssen got swine flu, do you know him?" I would say yes -- even though I haven't seen him since 1985. I still know him. If he showed up on my doorstep, I'd take him to dinner and ask him how he was. He's still in my tribe.

I think that I know somewhere between 5,000 and 10,000 people. I'm willing to believe I am a bit of an outlier because I have a particularly good memory, but I don't think I'm THAT far out.

You used the Pop Clock to extrapolate from a surve...

2009-04-30T11:18:00.000-04:00

You used the Pop Clock to extrapolate from a survey of American adults? Come on, dude, at least exclude infants or something - their circle of acquaintances isn't exactly wide.

Your last explanation is probably the correct one. For instance, I know someone who is currently quarantined on suspicion of having swine flu. He is a roommate of one of my husband's co-workers, and while I know the co-worker personally, I don't know the roommate personally. But if his case is confirmed, I'd feel justified in saying that I do in fact know someone who has swine flu.

A lot depends on how you count "knowing" people. D...

2009-04-30T10:25:00.000-04:00

A lot depends on how you count "knowing" people. Do I know the people whose names I don't know, but see on the way in and out of my building several times a month? (And that's a much higher number for me, in Manhattan, than it would be for many people who live in single-family homes in the suburbs, and don't have children. Conversely, when my nephew was younger, his parents picked him up at school every day: do you count all his classmates, and their parents, as people they know? Then, maybe. A decade later?

How about all my imaginary friends, who I talk to online but have never seen in the flesh (and who could, in theory, all be the same person, or space aliens, rather than the mix of humans I think them to be)? Do I know my co-worker's son, who has stopped by the office twice in the two years I've worked here? My high school classmates who I mostly haven't seen since graduation, but some of whom I now talk to on Facebook?

If you say yes to all of those, the numbers are higher than if you eliminate the online-only contacts, or count them but not anyone I haven't talked to since the 20th century, or rule out anyone whose name I couldn't give you.

How the hell do people know 290 other people? I ca...

2009-04-30T08:30:00.000-04:00

How the hell do people know 290 other people? I can count relatives of friends I haven't seen in 5 years and not go over 100.

Tracking news of the deadly disease is very impor...

2009-04-30T05:39:00.000-04:00

Tracking news of the deadly disease is very important before it spreads even more. I found a cool way to track Swine Flu cases in all neighborhoods. Just add the Swine Flu tracklet at http://www.trackle.com to get updates.
Obama: Flu outbreak 'a very serious situation' (CNN) http://tinyurl.com/cfph8q - News alert (http://www.trackle.com) Check it out.

this is really an informative article, this dreade...

2009-04-30T04:21:00.000-04:00

this is really an informative article, this dreaded disease is causing a panic in US....Swine Flu FAQ

Nate, here is a statistical question which deserve...

2009-04-30T02:11:00.000-04:00

Nate, here is a statistical question which deserves your attention. The NRA has a boilerplate statistic that each year 2.5 million people use a firearm to protect themselves against a criminal act. http://www.pulpless.com/jneil/indefnra.html

If that statistic were true, a gathering of say 100 people should have a probability of x% that someone in the group either is or personally knows someone who has used a firearm in self defense. I'm not sure how large the x in my sentence is but I suspect that it is very high. I'm certain that you are familiar with that standard party gimmick of asking each attendee what his or her birthday is. Once the number of people polled exceeds 57 the probability of duplicate birthdays is 99%. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_paradox

Perhaps the same 2.5 million people use a firearm each year in self defense but if each year's crop of successful self defenders is unique, in 20 years the cumulative total would be 50 million and in 40 years, 100 million, namely 1 in 3 of every American. In that case, even a group of say 10 people would likely have a probability of 99.9% that someone personally is or knows a successful self defender.

Obviously the point that I am getting at is that I suspect that the NRA figure of 2.5 million cases per annum is bogus and I would love to see a statistical analysis which effectively proves this assertion to be impossible.

Do this little experiment at home, you don't want ...

2009-04-30T00:15:00.000-04:00

Do this little experiment at home, you don't want to do it to often, it really annoys people.

Listen very closely to the people you are around when they are describing gossip, rumor or personal speculation.

When you hear phrases like "Someone told me" or "my friend said" or "they say" stop them and ask who the someone actually is, or what their friend's name is , or who are "they" exactly. You'll find that these are phrases almost everyone uses (present company not excluded) but almost no thought goes into the factual accuracy of the phaseology. Usually "no one" said it, their "friend" was made up and "they say" is used as just a seemingly more credible version of "I think."

Do I know anyone who has swine flu? It would be cool and unboring if I did, I'm anonymous and there's no penalty for claiming it so ..... no. But you know at least 3% say yes anyway.

For me the surprising thing is actually that the n...

2009-04-30T00:14:00.000-04:00

For me the surprising thing is actually that the number is so LOW. I remember from method class in university that given ANY two options you'll always have at least 4-6% in the least popular category.

I bet if you asked people if they had been abducted by aliens or visited another planet more than 3.2% would say "yes". So why do so few choose the at least plausible swine flu?

The first reason you gave is enough. People are li...

2009-04-29T23:56:00.000-04:00

The first reason you gave is enough. People are liars.

You're leaving off a possibility, Nate. Would you...

2009-04-29T23:28:00.000-04:00

You're leaving off a possibility, Nate.

Would you be surprised at a survey that said 3.2% of Americans knew someone who lives in Mexico City? Depending on who get to be in the sample of "Americans," that seems low. Now, not everyone who lives in Mexico City is infected, but it seems certain that it's at least in the thousands.

It's a mistake to think that people who answered "yes" to the question are talking about one of the US cases.

Hu Chi, Which is all the more reason for everyone...

2009-04-29T23:06:00.000-04:00

Hu Chi,

Which is all the more reason for everyone to make an effort to take this shit seriously, since when the people around them don't, that's all the more people who will expose them to the virus once they wind up sharing mutual airspace.

This same strain has caused major pandemics worldwide twice before, including the one with the most fatalities attributed to an influenza pandemic in the history of modern disease (the 1918 outbreak). Since this disease is spread through aerosol transmission (when someone sneezes), covering your mouth and nose will spare your loved ones the danger, and you can spare yourself much of the risk by washing your hands. Alot. A whole fuck of a lot.

Why? because when someone sneezes, a cloud of aerosolized particles is expelled with considerable force and speed=these projectiles land all over the place, and you can't see them. If some land on your hands and you then touch your mucous membranes without washing first, you may introduce the virus into tissues that are very close to your bloodstream. It's not like you're injecting it or anything, but it's a pretty efficient way to get it.

Above all, wash your hands before eating. You have no idea how many disease can be prevented just by washing your hands. Remember to use soap-just wetting your hands with water doesn't do any good. Also, remember to wipe your hand thoroughly on a paper towel-while soap acts like a detergent and knocks everything on your hands loose, you still have to scrape it off of you with that paper towel, so wipe your hands. Those little hairdryer like things in public restrooms don't cut it. You,re not wiping just to dry your hands off-you,re trying to physically remove the virus particles from your body.

Also, use the paper towel to open the restroom door on your way out. That way you don't egt whatever the guy before you left on the doorhandle on your newly cleaned hands.

Get yourself a little bottle of alcohol-based sanitizer. They're cheap, and in case the restroom at work doesn't have paper towels, the alcohol will deactivate the virus. If you're worried about dry hands, they make kinds that won't dry your hands out nowadays.

Kids are going to present a special problem. They have underdeveloped immune systems and therefore a considerable amount of virus can grow in their bodies-more than will grow in ours, because our immune system will fight off the virus particles int he bloodstream. Children also tend to put everything in their mouths and rub their mucous membranes alot. They also tend to do things in very large groups, especially teenagers, and they share food and drink from the same containers, which enhances the spread. So make sure your children wash their hands very often, discourage them from eating or drinking after other people, even when offered to them. In this case, you want to teach them NOT to share. You may also wish to discourage large group activities for the kids-not saying they can't go out and play, but 20 playmates is a little much.

Remember, this shit is spread by aerosol spray from the mouth and nose-and there are hundreds of places in our daily lives where we share confined airspace with large numbers of people, like the subway, elevators, concerts, the movie theatre, shopping malls, etc etc etc. Some have decent ventilation, many don't. So you don't have to know someone to catch this thing from them-if you're in the same elevator and are total strangers, you can still get it from them.

Sydow, did you get that? That,s why it spreads quickly all over the place. Person 1 has no connection to person 2, except they were on an airplane together or they were in the same elevator. Then, person two catches a connecting flight to Phoenix while person 1 goes to New York. You get outbreaks in Phoenix and New York, and everyone's wondering how that can happen even though nobody in Phoenix knows anyone in New York.

It does not matter if you know the person or not. That,s why this thread is a bunch of bullshit-it gives people the false impression that this is an STD or something, and the spread is much easier than that.

So cover your mouth, don't touch your eyes, and WAS YOUR HANDS!

YES, WE CAN WASH OUR HANDS!

Doesn't this presume that the distribution of swin...

2009-04-29T22:34:00.000-04:00

Doesn't this presume that the distribution of swine flu is even throughout the country, whereas, since it's contagious, it should be clustered? That is, if I know 1 person with swine flu, I'm lots more likely to know 2.

I'll let you all know when I get it, OK? Then you...

2009-04-29T22:06:00.000-04:00

I'll let you all know when I get it, OK? Then you must tell your friends and neighbours.

Michele Bachmann says Democrats cause flu epidemic...

2009-04-29T21:59:00.000-04:00

Michele Bachmann says Democrats cause flu epidemics. Maybe the poll respondents were saying that they knew Democrats. I personally know a slew of Democrats. Q.E.D.

http://www.minnpost.com/minnclips/2009/04/28/8422/michele_bachmann_might_know_the_cause_of_the_swine_flu_outbreak