Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Senate Rankings, January 2009 Edition

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

2009-10-09T08:15:23.543-04:00

酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,

豆豆聊天室 aio交友愛情館 2008真情寫真 2009真情寫真 aa片免費看捷克論壇微風論壇 ...

2009-03-28T05:05:00.000-04:00

豆豆聊天室 aio交友愛情館 2008真情寫真 2009真情寫真 aa片免費看捷克論壇微風論壇大眾論壇 plus論壇 080視訊聊天室情色視訊交友90739 美女交友-成人聊天室色情小說做愛成人圖片區豆豆色情聊天室 080豆豆聊天室小辣妹影音交友網台中情人聊天室桃園星願聊天室高雄網友聊天室新中台灣聊天室中部網友聊天室嘉義之光聊天室基隆海岸聊天室中壢網友聊天室南台灣聊天室南部聊坊聊天室台南不夜城聊天室南部網友聊天室屏東網友聊天室台南網友聊天室屏東聊坊聊天室雲林網友聊天室大學生BBS聊天室網路學院聊天室屏東夜語聊天室孤男寡女聊天室一網情深聊天室心靈饗宴聊天室流星花園聊天室食色男女色情聊天室真愛宣言交友聊天室情人皇朝聊天室上班族成人聊天室上班族f1影音視訊聊天室哈雷視訊聊天室 080影音視訊聊天室 38不夜城聊天室援交聊天室080 080哈啦聊天室台北已婚聊天室已婚廣場聊天室夢幻家族聊天室摸摸扣扣同學會聊天室 520情色聊天室 QQ成人交友聊天室免費視訊網愛聊天室愛情公寓免費聊天室拉子性愛聊天室柔情網友聊天室哈啦影音交友網哈啦影音視訊聊天室櫻井莉亞三點全露寫真集 123上班族聊天室尋夢園上班族聊天室成人聊天室上班族 080上班族聊天室 6k聊天室粉紅豆豆聊天室 080豆豆聊天網新豆豆聊天室 080聊天室免費音樂試聽流行音樂試聽免費aa片試看免費a長片線上看色情貼影片免費a長片本土成人貼圖站大台灣情色網台灣男人幫論壇 A圖網嘟嘟成人電影網火辣春夢貼圖網情色貼圖俱樂部台灣成人電影絲襪美腿樂園 18美女貼圖區柔情聊天網 707網愛聊天室聯盟台北69色情貼圖區 38女孩情色網台灣映像館波波成人情色網站美女成人貼圖區無碼貼圖力量色妹妹性愛貼圖區日本女優貼圖網日本美少女貼圖區亞洲風暴情色貼圖網哈啦聊天室美少女自拍貼圖辣妹成人情色網台北女孩情色網辣手貼圖情色網 AV無碼女優影片男女情色寫真貼圖 a片天使俱樂部萍水相逢遊戲區平水相逢遊戲區免費視訊交友90739 免費視訊聊天辣妹視訊 - 影音聊天網 080視訊聊天室日本美女肛交美女工廠貼圖區百分百貼圖區亞洲成人電影情色網台灣本土自拍貼圖網麻辣貼圖情色網好色客成人圖片貼圖區 711成人AV貼圖區台灣美女貼圖區筱萱成人論壇咪咪情色貼圖區 momokoko同學會視訊 kk272視訊情色文學小站成人情色貼圖區嘟嘟成人網嘟嘟情人色網 - 貼圖區免費色情a片下載台灣情色論壇成人影片分享免費視訊聊天區微風成人論壇 kiss文學區 taiwankiss文學區

I am not happy that Vilsack is in any politicl pos...

2009-01-26T13:32:00.000-05:00

I am not happy that Vilsack is in any politicl position of power. It is not only his policies, but his lack of transparency and ethics.

Dixie Burkhart
Facts Don't Matter
www.eloquentbooks.com/FactsDontMatter.htm

Nate,I think you should push Vitter substantially ...

2009-01-17T17:59:00.000-05:00

Nate,
I think you should push Vitter substantially higher on your hit list. Right now Jindal is refusing to endorse him, and LA Repubs are nervous.

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-01-16T04:34:00.000-05:00

Tomica Minichamps Mini-Z Kyosho Futaba RCtank Chor...

2009-01-08T22:40:00.000-05:00

Tomica Minichamps
Mini-Z Kyosho Futaba RCtank Choro-Q Ebbro Tiger I Silyerlit Radiocontrol
Tamiya Tomy Cars Model Tamiya Ebbro Kyosho Mini-Z Tomica .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Tomica
Tomica
Tomica
Tomica
Minichamps
Minichamps
Minichamps
Minichamps
Minichamps
Mini-Z
Mini-Z
Mini-Z
Mini-Z
Kyosho
Kyosho
Kyosho
Kyosho
Kyosho
Futaba
Futaba
Futaba
Futaba
Choro-Q
Choro-Q
Choro-Q
Choro-Q
Ebbro
Ebbro
Ebbro
Ebbro
Ebbro
Ebbro

Tomica
MIni-Z
Minichamps
Choro-Q
Kyosho
Tiger I
RC tank
RC bearing
car model
Futaba
Tomica
Minichamps
Tiger I
Tomica
Minichamps
Choro-Q
Mini-Z
Kyosho
Futaba
RC tank
Minichamps
Mini-Z
Tomica
Kyosho
Minichamps
Futaba
Choro-Q
Tomica
Mini-Z
Tomica
Minichamps
Tomica
Mini-Z
Kyosho
Minichamps
RC Tank
RC Tank
Mini-Z
Tomica
Mini-Z
Minichamps
Futaba
Futaba
Tomica
Minichamps
Mini-Z
Futaba
Mini-Z
Futaba
Tomica
Kyosho
Mini-Z
Tomica
MIni-Z
Futaba
Mini-Z
RC Tank
Futaba
Minichamps
Mini-Z
Mini-Z
Futaba
Futaba
RC Tank
RC Tank

On the Republican Side.- over 70 year old US Senat...

2009-01-08T18:56:00.000-05:00

On the Republican Side.- over 70 year old US Senators who are expected to run again.
AL(Shelby)
AZ(McCain)
IA(Grassley)
KY(Bunning)-loses in the General Election.
PA(Specter)-loses in the Primary- DEM Pick up
UT(Bennett)

That said 2010 US Senate Rankings
1)MO(OPEN-Bond-R)
2)FL(OPEN-Martinez-R)
3)KY(Bunning-R))
4)NC(Burr-R)
5)PA(Specter-R)
6)OH(Voinovich-R)
7)NH(Gregg-R)
8)NV(Reid-D)
9)KS(OPEN-Brownback-R)
10)CO(OPEN-Salazar-D)
11)IL(OPEN-Obama/Burris-D)
12)NY(OPEN-Clinton-D)
13)DE(OPEN-Biden/Kaufman-D)
14)TX(OPEN-Hutchison-R)
15)CA(Boxer-D)
16)WI(Feingold-D)
17)WA(Murray-D)
18)AR(Lincoln-D)
19)AK(Murkowski-R)
20)LA(Vitter-R)
21)SD(Thune-R)
22)OK(Coburn-R)
23)SC(DeMint-R)
24)GA(Isakson-R)
25)ND(Dorgan-D)
26)IN(Bayh-D)
27)MD(Mikulski-D)
28)CT(Dodd-D)
29)OR(Wyden-D)
30)AZ(McCain-R)
31)AL(Shelby-R)
32)IA(Grassley-R)
33)UT(Bennett-R)
34)HI(Inouye-D)
35)VT(Leahy)
36)NY(Schumer)-
37)ID(Crapo)-unopposed.

Now with Bond announcing retirement, it looks the ...

2009-01-08T18:17:00.000-05:00

Now with Bond announcing retirement, it looks the downward GOP spiral is continuing. More GOP open seats. Obviously life sucks being in the minority, and in the Senate with 59 seats (most likely), it isn't reversing soon. We can predict the future, but 2010 isn't looking good for them. Many older GOP senators leaving in droves, others up in states that are trending blue. Honestly could it get any worse for these people. I am sure they are still reeling over the defeats of Dole, Smith, Coleman, Sununu, and Stevens. I guesss get out while the getting is good. The GOP is now the party of the deep south, with some pockets in the midwest and mountain west. Some small pockets that is.

Looking at the Republican US Senators up for re-el...

2009-01-08T17:43:00.000-05:00

Looking at the Republican US Senators up for re-election in 2010 who are in their 70s'
AL-Shelby
AZ-McCain
IA-Grassley
KY-Bunning
MO-Bond-retiring
OH-Voinovich
PA-Specter
UT- Bennett

Republicans will hold on to AL(Shelby)and UT(Bennett)if these seat opens up.
Democrats will pick up AZ,IA,KY,MO,OH,and PA if these seats open up.

Other Republican open seats- FL(Martinez)
KS(Brownback)

Republicans will hold onto KS.
FL is moving to a Democratic pick up since Top Tier GOP candidates Jeb Bush and Charlie Crist are not running or less likely to run. Democratic candidates like Alex Sink,Alan Boyd,or Ron Klien can win FL in the General Election.

Vulnerable Republican incumbents facing re-election or likely to lose.
Burr(NC)
Gregg(NH)

Republicans will get a free pass in
AK(Murkowski)
GA(Isakson)
OK(Coburn)
SC(DeMint)
SD(Thune)

Crapo(ID)is running unopposed.

Democratic US Senators up for re-election in their 70's
Inouye(HI)
Leahy(VT)
Mikulski(MD)
Reid(NV)
Boxer(CA)

All of these US Senators hold committe chairmanships or leadership positions- They will run again and win easily due to lack of GOP opposition.

Democrats will hold onto open Seats in
CO(Salazar)- Bennett
DE(OPEN-Biden/Kaufman)- Biden
IL(OPEN-Obama/Burris)- Hynes/Schakowsky.
NY(Clinton)- Cuomo/Kennedy

Red State Democratic US Senators get a free pass.
AR(Lincoln)

Red State Democratic US Senators that are always Safe.
IN(Bayh)
ND(Dorgan)

Other perenial vulnerable Democratic US Senators getting a free pass in 2010.
WA(Murray)
WI(Feingold)

Safe Democratic Seats
CT-(Dodd)
OR-(Wyden)
NY-(Schumer)

Nate, if the seats are listed in order of likelih...

2009-01-08T15:44:00.000-05:00

Nate, if the seats are listed in order of likelihood of changing parties, and the first seat on the list is described as "the definition of a tossup." then it seems as though you're saying that every seat below Florida is unlikely to change parties - unless one party has a particularly good election night.

GOP Sources: Mo. Sen. Bond to announce retirement

2009-01-08T11:51:00.000-05:00

GOP Sources: Mo. Sen. Bond to announce retirement

The recent news of Kit Bond(MO) not seeking re-ele...

2009-01-08T11:37:00.000-05:00

The recent news of Kit Bond(MO) not seeking re-election is excellent news for Democrats. MO is now a Democratic pick up.
The Democratic Nominee will be either one of the Carnahan siblings- (Robin or Russ).

Republicans are stuck with second tier candidates- Peter Kinder,Todd Akin,Sam Graves.

The Carnahans defeat either of the Republican candidates by a double digit margin.

Mike in Maryland the Douchebag.Go Cheney Yourself....

2009-01-08T11:28:00.000-05:00

Mike in Maryland the Douchebag.

Go Cheney Yourself.

Do You think Pat Toomey or Andy Harris would have stand a chance unseating Specter in the Republican Primary without the support from Club for Growth.

Regarding Albert Wynn- the Black Joe Lieberman- He narrowly won the primary in 2006 against Donna Edwards. Edwards relied on Moveon.org and Obama's coattails to knock off Wynn.

Going back to Specter- I was mentioning that he can get defeated in the General election with a candidate like Patrick Murphy- an Irish Catholic Military Veteran from The Philidelphia Suburbs.

nkpolitics,If you don't think the primary election...

2009-01-08T05:52:00.000-05:00

nkpolitics,

If you don't think the primary election counts, just ask Wayne Gilchrest (FORMER representative of Maryland CD-1), or Albert Wynn (FORMER representative of Maryland CD-4) about winning the primary election.

Both had a good record of winning general election after general election by large margins. Gilchrest won 7 consecutive general election races with more than 60% of the votes cast, and Wynn won 8 consecutive general elections with more than 75% of the votes cast.

However, BOTH lost in the primary election in 2008. If they had won the primary, both would have been odds-on to win again in the 2008 general election.

nkpolitics1279 said...Specter's narrow victory aga...

2009-01-08T05:41:00.000-05:00

nkpolitics1279 said...
Specter's narrow victory against Toomey has to do with ideology- He is too liberal for Republicans in the T Area.
That said in the General Election . . . .

nkpolitics,

Do you have a reading comprehension problem?

I said that Specter will have a more difficult time winning the primary than he will have winning the general election. In fact, I give Specter less than a 50% probability of winning the primary, but if he does, he'll probably win the general by a 53-47 margin.

Looking at Republican US Senate Seats- in 2010.Gra...

2009-01-08T02:06:00.000-05:00

Looking at Republican US Senate Seats- in 2010.
Grassley(IA)-never had a tough race since 1980 when he unseated Chet Culver's father. He has been re-elected in 1986,1992,1998,and 2004 by landslide margin. If he runs again in 2010 and retires in 2016-Expect Chet Culver to win his father's old US Senate Seat.

Specter(PA)-has faced competitive US Senate Races against mediocre opponents in 1980,1986,1992,and 2004. 1998 was the only time he won by a landslide margin. In 2010- He will be facing a very formidable Democratic challenger- Allyson Schwartz or Patrick Murray.

Shelby(AL)-since Shelby switched parties in 1994- He has won re-election in 1998 and 2004 by landslide margins. He is very safe in 2010.

McCain(AZ)- won all his US Senate Races 1986,1992,1998,and 2004 by landslide margins. He is safe in 2010.

Bond(MO)-always had Close races in 1986,1992,1998,and 2004 against mediocre opponents. If he faces either one of the Carnahan siblings(Robin or Russ)-He loses.

Gregg(NH)- never faced a tough race since 1992. He got a free pass in 1998 and 2004 due to lack of Democratic opposition. In 2010 He may face strong Democratic opposition. Lynch will cream Gregg. Hodes or Shea Porter will give Gregg a competitive race.

Bennett(UT)-Safe in a Reddest State.

OPEN-(Brownback-KS)- the last time KS had a competitive US Senate race was in 1996 when Brownback defeated Docking. Sebelius is a stronger candidate than Docking and Moran is more moderate than Brownback- KS Republican Hold.

Bunning(KY)- Dead Duck- elected in 1998 and re-elected in 2004 by a narrow margins. Rick Santorum or Liddy Dole.

Crapo(ID)- Safe as long as he stays away from public restrooms.

Voinovich(OH)- Used to be a popular Governor during the 1990's but thanks to Taft and Ney and Bush- His popularity is at its low. If Tim Ryan runs- Voinovich loses.

Murkowski(AK)-Safe due to lack of top tier Democratic candidates.

Burr(NC)- This seat switched parties ever time since Ervin left in 1974. In 2010 Burr will face top tier Democratic opposition- Heath Schuler or Attorney General Roy Cooper. Since NC is trending blue- Burr becomes a one termer.

DeMint(SC)-Fairly Safe- lack of Democratic opposition.

Coburn(OK)-Competitive if Governor Henry runs.

Thune(SD)- It depends on Herseth-Sandlin who is less likely to run.

Isakson(GA)- Safe- he will get a free pass- He is less republisive than Chambliss.

Vitter(LA)- a Mitch Landrieu vs Vitter matchup will be like the 2002 AR US Senate Race between Mark Pryor vs Tim Hutchinson except LA has been Republican at the State and local level.

OPEN-Martinez(FL)- Easy DEM Pickup if Alex Sink runs. Otherwise Tossup.

Dem Pickups-2010
FL,NC,and KY.
Tossups
OH,NH,MO,and PA.

Great thread going here! As I have said in another...

2009-01-08T00:34:00.000-05:00

Great thread going here! As I have said in another thread, I am not going to pretend to be an expert on another state's politics, but we can sure generalize.

1. I think Bunning will be a prime target. Dan Mongiardo nearly beat him last time, and he was a throw away candidate. I like the Dole Hagan analogy. A determined, energetic opponent could beat Bunning.

2. Regarding Harry Reid, I worked at the DNC Convention in Denver. When Reid was speaking the audience and delegates were all talking among themselves, paying no attention to him barely at all. A delegate told me his accomplishment lay with legislation, not speaking ability. The opposite of Dennis Kucinich who rocked the hall. But that aside. I am not sure if Reid is all that vulnerable. Yes, he won by only 400 votes to John Ensign in 98. But would NV gain by sending a Senator from the minority party with no seniority? And there's nobody knows who in NV would take him on. Rep. Porter lost. Who else is there? I don't think he is in as much danger as everyone else sees.

3. Michael Bennet. I am in CO, and used to work in Denver Schools, and met him. What an odd choice. He may work out. I do not think people outside this state realize how CO has become blue. People are already saying it will be a tossup. Bet money on Bennet, or the Dem candidate. The GOP bench, next to nothing. John Suthers as AG does not have name recognition or popularity of Salazar. Maybe not Mass. or Hawaii, but blue nonetheless. The liberal base in Denver and Boulder (and the other college towns) is dominating this state.

4. Specter may be in real danger. Yes, he has longevity. But he nearly lost a primary last time. Specter is old and has been ill. Another potential Kay Hagan moment. People might be ripe for someone new.

5. Judd Greg? Imagine how he must feel? His state has been swept away to the blue sea out from underneath him! He may be in some danger, maybe not. Depends on how the country feels toward the GOP in 10.

6. FL? Who knows?

Maine Student.Peter Fitzgerald(R-IL) only got elec...

2009-01-07T23:26:00.000-05:00

Maine Student.

Peter Fitzgerald(R-IL) only got elected in 1998 because of the scandals involving Carol Mosely Braun(D-IL). Fitzgerald retired in 2004 because he was going to lose re-election. Burris lost primaries for Governor in 1994,1998,and 2002. He will lose again to either Schakowsky,Madigan or Hynes.

Mike in Maryland-
Specter's narrow victory against Toomey has to do with ideology- He is too liberal for Republicans in the T Area.
That said in the General Election. After getting elected in 1980 during the Reagan Landslide.
He beat Bob Edgar-US Congressman turned from Philidephia Burbs- by a 56-44 percent margin.
He narrowly beat Lynn Yeakel in 1992.(Clarence Thomas Hearings). He got a free pass in 1998. In 2004- He beat Joe Hoefel another Philadephia burbs US Congressman by a 53-42 percent margin.
It will a moderate Philidephia Suburban Congressman with a military background- Patrick Murphy to knock off Specter .

e3323 said...7) Specter: MOST OVER-RATED SEAT EVER...

2009-01-07T21:53:00.000-05:00

e3323 said...
7) Specter: MOST OVER-RATED SEAT EVER. Specter has been in office since 1980, by 2010 he will have has served for 30 years. Once you have served that long you generally have to ether:
A) make an EXTREMELY offensive gaffe . . .
B)he gets convicted of something.

So, e3323, was Specter guilty of A) or B) when he almost lost to Toomey in 2004?

2 things,It is worth remembering that IL had a Rep...

2009-01-07T20:24:00.000-05:00

2 things,

It is worth remembering that IL had a Republican Senator until 2005, and not to write off the possibility of a GOP win, especially against a black inner-city democrat. In such an environment, the downstate counties that were close for Kerry and Obama will be 80-20 or worse for Kirk, while Kirk will easily crush Burris in the suburbs, especially now that he is linked with Bobby Rush. In fact I have very little doubt that Burris will lose the seat if he is nominee in 2010. That said, I suspect he will lose the primary for the same reason he would lose the general.

2. Texas - No Democrat has won statewide since 1994, and Bill White is the most overhyped candidate since Kay Barnes. In order for a Democrat to win they need to sweep the urban areas, get a major turnout on the border, and hold their losses in the rural areas. White can only do one of those(urban turnout). He will be crushed in the rural areas and will do nothing for border turnout, especially in a runoff. Sharp is better in that he can accomplish two of those(urban turnout, decent rural performance), and at least has a shot.

Most likely though they will split the Anglo vote in the first round and the Democrats will end up with some school teacher with a Hispanic last name as usually happens in these races.

The appointed US SenatorsMicheal Bennett(D-CO) and...

2009-01-07T16:29:00.000-05:00

The appointed US Senators

Micheal Bennett(D-CO) and who ever is appointed to the Clinton NY Senate Seat will win re-election in 2010.

The 2010 Freshman US Senate Class.
1)Beau Biden(D-DE)
2)Alex Sink (D-FL)
3)Lisa Madigan or Dan Hynes(D-IL)
4)Jerry Moran(R-KS)
5)Dan Mongiarodo or Jack Conway(D-KY)
6)Robin Carnahan(D-MO)
7)Roy Cooper or Heath Schuler(D-NC)
8)Lee Fisher or Tim Ryan(D-OH)
9)Patrick Murphy or Allyson Schwartz(D-PA)

Looking at the 2010 US Senate Races. Republican Se...

2009-01-07T16:12:00.000-05:00

Looking at the 2010 US Senate Races.

Republican Seats.
Retirements/Potential Retirements.
1)Alabama(Shelby)-If Shelby runs again-He is safe. If he retires- Tossup if Ron Sparks runs- otherwise Lean Republican hold.
2)Arizona(McCain)-If McCain runs again- He is safe. If he retires, Democrats nominate either Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon or US Rep Gabby Giffords. Republicans nominate either JD Hayworth or John Schadegg. Dem Pick up if McCain retires.
3)Florida(OPEN-Martinez)- If Alex Sink runs- This turns into the Mark Warner-Jim Gilmore race of 2010. Democratic Pickup.
4)Iowa-(Grassley)-If Grassley runs again- He is safe. If he retires- Democratic Nominee- US Rep Dave Loesback or ex Lt Governor Sally Pederson. Republican Nominee- US Rep Tom Latham or Steve King. Democratic Pick up if Grassley retires.
5)Kansas-(OPEN-Brownback)- Sebelius is the only Democrat that can make the race competitive.(Republican retention).
6)Kentucky-(Bunning)- Bunning is the most vulnerable Republican US Senator up for re-election in 2010. If he runs again he loses. If he retires- The Republican nominee will be Geoff Davis. Democratic Nominee will either by Chandler,Mongiardo,Conway or Luallen. - Democratic Pickup.
7)Missouri-(Bond)- If Bond retires- Democratic Pickup. If he runs again he is vulnerable assuming one of the Carnahan siblings runs. Democratic Pickup if Bond retires.
8)Ohio-(Voinovich)- If Voinovich retires- Democratic Pickup. If he runs again- He is vulnerable to defeat- Lt Governor Lee Fisher,Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman or US Rep Tim Ryan. Dem Pick up if Voinovich retires.
9)Pennsylvania-(Specter)-If Specter retires or loses in the primary- Dem Pick up. If Specter is the GOP nominee- He is vulnerable to either Patrick Murphy or Allyson Schwartz-
10)Texas-(-KBH VACANT)- This will be similar to the 2008 MS Special Election US Senate Race.
11)Utah-(Bennett)- Republican Hold either way.

Democratic Seats- Open Seats/potential open seats.
1)Delaware(OPEN-Kaufman)- Safe Democratic Hold- Democratic Nominee Beau Biden.

2)Illinios(OPEN-Burris)- Safe Democratic if Madigan,Hynes,or Schakowsky get the nomination. Competitive but Democratic hold if Jesse Jackson Jr runs.

3)Maryland(Mikulski)- Safe Democratic either way.

4)New York(Clinton Seat)- Safe Democratic hold. US Senator Andrew Cuomo or Caroline Kennedy.

Vulnerable Republican incumbents up for re-election in 2010.
1)Louisiana(Vitter)- potential Democratic opponents- Lt Governor Mitch Landrieu,ex US Rep Chris John or Don Cazayoux,US Rep Chris Melancon.

2)New Hampshire(Gregg)- The Lincoln Chaffee of 2010. Democratic Pickup if Governor Lynch runs. Tossup if US Rep Paul Hodes or Carol Shea Porter runs.

3)North Carolina- (Burr)- Democratic Pickup- potential Democratic candidates- Attorney General Roy Cooper or US Rep Heath Schuler.

4)Oklahoma-(Coburn)- Tossup if Governor Brad Henry runs otherwise Republican Hold.

5)South Dakota(Thume)- Tossup if Stephanie Herseth runs. otherwise Republican hold.

Vulnerable Democratic incumbents up for re-election in 2010
1)Colorado(Bennett)- Tossup if Republicans nominate AG Suthers. otherwise Democratic hold.

2)Nevada(Reid)- Vulnerable if US REP Dean Heller runs otherwise- Reid is pretty safe.

Alex,I only caught that because I live in Nashvill...

2009-01-07T15:33:00.000-05:00

Alex,

I only caught that because I live in Nashville. If only Ford had decided to run again this cycle, although he probably would have lost to Lamar Alexander who is extremely popular.

Sorry Nate but I have to disagree with you on your...

2009-01-07T15:24:00.000-05:00

Sorry Nate but I have to disagree with you on your placement of the open Delaware Senate seat as #14 on the list. The only viable Republican candidate in Delaware is Mike Castle who is getting old and has had health problems. There is a giant Democratic bench in this state. The open Delaware Senate seat is a safe Democratic hold.

Regarding the IL seat, I don't care who wins the p...

2009-01-07T14:23:00.000-05:00

Regarding the IL seat, I don't care who wins the primary, I was just pointing out that the Dems should allow Burris the seat for now so they can get down to business and then in 2 years, someone else can take the seat away from him in the primary (which shouldn't be hard to do). I don't have an opinion on who that person should (or would) be.

Regarding TX, what does the open primary mean? Does that mean that there is one big primary and anyone can run (including several people from the same party) and then the top 2 vote getters continue on to the general election, regardless of party affiliation? If so, couldn't that mean you have 2 people from the same party running in the general? Please explain. Thanks.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Senate Rankings, January 2009 Edition

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

豆豆聊天室 aio交友愛情館 2008真情寫真 2009真情寫真 aa片免費看 捷克論壇 微風論壇 ...

I am not happy that Vilsack is in any politicl pos...

Nate,I think you should push Vitter substantially ...

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

Tomica Minichamps Mini-Z Kyosho Futaba RCtank Chor...

On the Republican Side.- over 70 year old US Senat...

Now with Bond announcing retirement, it looks the ...

Looking at the Republican US Senators up for re-el...

Nate, if the seats are listed in order of likelih...

GOP Sources: Mo. Sen. Bond to announce retirement

The recent news of Kit Bond(MO) not seeking re-ele...

Mike in Maryland the Douchebag.Go Cheney Yourself....

nkpolitics,If you don't think the primary election...

nkpolitics1279 said...Specter's narrow victory aga...

Looking at Republican US Senate Seats- in 2010.Gra...

Great thread going here! As I have said in another...

Maine Student.Peter Fitzgerald(R-IL) only got elec...

e3323 said...7) Specter: MOST OVER-RATED SEAT EVER...

2 things,It is worth remembering that IL had a Rep...

The appointed US SenatorsMicheal Bennett(D-CO) and...

Looking at the 2010 US Senate Races. Republican Se...

Alex,I only caught that because I live in Nashvill...

Sorry Nate but I have to disagree with you on your...

Regarding the IL seat, I don't care who wins the p...

豆豆聊天室 aio交友愛情館 2008真情寫真 2009真情寫真 aa片免費看捷克論壇微風論壇 ...