Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Minnesota May Be Heading Toward Resolution -- In C...

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2009-04-16T03:25:00.000-04:00

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2009-01-17T01:43:00.000-05:00

@Latte,I've been skipping over the Brooklyn Park b...

2008-12-12T08:00:00.000-05:00

@Latte,

I've been skipping over the Brooklyn Park ballots. What a pain. I sent an EMAIL to STrib through their corrections dept off the Contact Us page. They said they would forward it.

Have you seen the Franken video on absentee voters who's ballots were rejected? Very powerful. I don't understand why the counties don't add in the improperly rejected absentees now. What's the difference between finding ballots in Becker or Ramsey a few weeks after the initial count or finding absentee ballots that were improperly rejected a few weeks after the initial count? Eventually they will get counted, it would be nice if we don't have to have a long drawn out court case to do it.

PS I haven't seen much good news in Ramsey yet, I've been through about 120 ballots with 1 undervote challenge from both sides.

Hi, Latte and mediapost:I think the comments about...

2008-12-11T22:24:00.000-05:00

Hi, Latte and mediapost:

I think the comments about how-many 5th-pile ballots are this one and comments after this one.

Meanwhile, I responded to the Fight the `Stolen Election' meme item (linked via TheUptake.org) with a comment here, which you'll find apropos. And yesterday's TwinCities.com story "Error might mean 171 absentee ballots went uncounted" made someone in a non-recount thread here think another Maplewood trove had been found, but the word "error" in the singular was doggone-it misleading, as I commented here.

And would you know whom best to e-mail to at the Star Tribune over mathematical deficiencies in how they're serving those ballots? I tried e-mailing Kevin Duchschere on Tuesday, but no reply, and after this truly poor story today (for reasons several commenters point out), I think I'll try elsewhere. (One commenter there does ask, why did envelope "1/5" hold only 133 ballots while the others held 400-odd?)

Tomorrow I predict: another punt---but hopefully it will clarify the propriety of the SoS asking/requiring all counties to sort their improperly-rejected ballots. Meanwhile, have other voters besides the one in Ramsey pressed this grievance privately? My feeling is, as an ultimate factor, the equal-protection logic of Bush v. Gore and others has to kick in---as soon as it looks like a bunch of private cases will succeed...

@mediapost,I am not sure if you already posted thi...

2008-12-11T20:50:00.000-05:00

@mediapost,
I am not sure if you already posted this, and I missed it: how are you dealing with the multitude of the Brooklyn Park ballots that are not scanned in the pdf format and refuse to load up?

Thanks to you and KWR for the count/analysis, btw.

From the FWIW files, btw, Ritchie mentioned yesterday on air (MPR and during the forum he attended yesterday, that MPR rebroadcast today at lunch) that the number of the 5th pile ballots is now over 170 in Hennepin alone, around 200 in a few other counties plus about 25 from some other county I cannot recall. All this is with Ramsey refusing to separate/count their 5th pile and the sorting/counting still ongoing.

In short, Ritchie cited a number between 8 and 9 percent for the total improperly rejected absentees. I recall there was a poster in one of the Franken threads here arguing that the improperly rejected number is way lower, around 3-4%, and that the powers that be pretty much admitted that long ago. Now comes the word from the horse's mouth itself (SOS) that the number is indeed very close to 10%.

~ Latte

@KWRegan, Thanks for the info on Becker. Thing...

2008-12-11T20:26:00.000-05:00

@KWRegan,

Thanks for the info on Becker. Things would be looking very good for Al right now if it wasn't for those extra votes. Last night I noticed that STrib published challenges from Dakota and Wright counties. It was nice because those were the only 2 counties in the mix and I got some pretty good numbers. In Wright Franken had 12 challenges to undervotes vs Coleman's 8. In Dakota Franken had 23 challenges to undervotes vs Coleman's 21. The Dakota numbers may be off by a little because I counted 781 challenged ballots in Dakota but there are only 742 challenged ballots reported in Dakota. I think STrib has some duplicates. The Wright numbers were within 1 or 2 and I'm sure that is due to my errors. One other note, I think the decision on how to handle the 2 ovals with one Xd out is going to be a major factor in who wins. Dakota considered these types of votes to be overvotes, Wright split, some precincts considered them overvotes while others considered them votes for the non-X person. If the canvassing board rules in favor of counting these as votes then Franken would win 7 challenges in Dakota and Wright vs 2 challenge wins for Coleman. I just noticed that Ramsey and Sherburne are out there now so I'm going to check them out.

Can someone please tell me what happens in the eve...

2008-12-10T12:18:00.000-05:00

Can someone please tell me what happens in the event of an exact vote-for-vote tie? Does it go to the state legislature, the US Senate, the Gov, or a coin toss or a runoff or what?
Lumberjacking contest?
-Jeff

You are right: where there are numbers, there's pr...

2008-12-09T22:35:00.000-05:00

You are right: where there are numbers, there's probably a story. I found this:

-------
Recount frenzy in Becker County
Jason Adkins DL-Online
Published Wednesday, November 26, 2008

It was an eventful recount process in Becker County Monday and Tuesday, with more than 120 ballot challenges issued, dozens of ballots missing — and then located in precinct ballot boxes — and 61 previously uncounted ballots thrown into the mix.

A 46-vote discrepancy between the number of ballots cast on Election Day and those recounted during Day 2 was resolved Tuesday afternoon.

The ballots in question came from the Lake Eunice and Spruce Grove townships. Both sets of ballots came in to the courthouse around 1 p.m.

Most of the missing ballots came from Lake Eunice Township, where 32 ballots were missing.

Becker County Auditor-Treasurer Ryan Tangen sent a member of his staff to the locked room where election supplies are stored to see if the ballots were there.

The ballots were not found, though.

Tangen then went through a series of measures to determine where the missing ballots were, including interviewing election night workers.

Fourteen ballots were missing from Spruce Grove’s totals.

Spruce Grove election judge Dale Huwe said that he found the ballots inside the box at the Spruce Grove Township offices.

“I got a call about it and when I looked in I said, ‘uh-oh’,” Huwe said.

Huwe said that the ballots must have jiggled out from where they were stuck inside the box when it was moved to a storage area after election night.

He was instructed by Tangen’s office to get a second election judge help transport the ballots to the courthouse.

Tangen said such mishaps can happen, especially with a 90 percent turnout in the county keeping election workers busy.

“We do it once every two years,” Tangen said.
---------------

There's a *lot* more in that article---I'll leave you and the crew to draw more conclusions.

As for your questions about projecting, the general answer is that one needs to weight by (a) the original vote in the precinct/town/county, and (b) the "ditzy Dem" factor. If (a) adds up pretty even, and (b) your large sample has a good balance of city and rural areas, then you can project straight on.

If not, though, then one needs rolling weights for (a) and (b). If (b) really is an urban factor---note the references to "stress" in the above article---then you probably need to treat it like mass in general relativity. Call it the Urbanization "Tenser". The Black Hole of Dinkytown. No fooling---I actually had to use line-element integration for my chess application, as I described here :-).

Physics jokes aside, I/we really appreciate the work. It very much fits the narrative of: good gains for Franken in St. Louis & Ramsey Counties the first day+, then a stall, then revved up again once Hennepin got going. And a final Coleman pullback in Wright & Scott---that the final "X" is 4 has been confirmed now.

Does anyone know what went on in Becker? I noticed...

2008-12-08T23:10:00.000-05:00

Does anyone know what went on in Becker? I noticed 2 precincts that have about 200 total votes where Coleman stands to gain 24 votes (0030 - CALLAWAY TWP and 0240 - WOLF LAKE TWP). Did they find some extra ballots there? It would be nice to hear what happened and dispell some of the claims from the Coleman camp that all the gains are for Franken and there is a consipracy afoot.

Hi all,I have some good news and some bad news. Fi...

2008-12-08T22:53:00.000-05:00

Hi all,
I have some good news and some bad news. First, the good news. I continued going through the ballots and got up to 2484 reviewed (from 2220). The challenged undervote margin went from +40 for Franken (132 - 92) to +58 for Franken (153 - 95). However, now for the bad news. The last 200+ ballots that I reviewed were mostly from Hennepin. I'm not sure why I didn't realize this before but I now realize that the ballots are not being served up randomly on the STrib site (not to mention that 4000 ballots aren't even on the site!) and therefore I can't extrapolate my findings to the final total. When I was 33% of the way through (2220 ballot reviews) the 40 vote margin extrapolated to a 120 vote gain and a 23 vote win for Franken. Now, I'm 37% in (2484 balloot reviews) and a 58 vote margin extrapolates to a 155 vote gain and a 58 vote win. I haven't proven anything other than Al is going to do well in Hennepin... That said, I still think Coleman's 499 'excess' challenges (challenges > opponents votes taken away) in Hennepin, Ramsey and St Louis indicate that the local officials have found a lot of new Franken votes.

PS Additional bad news. I'm stuck at 2484 on the STrib web site. It keeps serving up the same ballot and I can't read it or skip over it. I've got a request in to them to fix it.

Boy, William Land, you are talking to the wrong gu...

2008-12-08T18:30:00.000-05:00

Boy, William Land, you are talking to the wrong guy. I'm a johnnie-come-lately to 538, only got here late in the primaries. I've seen folks get the scoop here from theuptake.org (they seem to be young, small and agile) and mnprogressiveproject.com and sometimes even dailykos. I tend to scan all these at night because I never seem to have any time at work. And by that time it doesn't really matter :). Huffington post, politico all seem to pick up their MN stories from the sources above.

But on the 12 overseas ballots found in the warehouse MN Public Radio actually got the scoop. So, call me Sarah Palin, but I cannot really shed any more light on what I read for the recount news.
~Latte

wv - sessabi: existential wasabi for the soul. Also see: c'estsabi

Hi Latte,Thanks for your response.Looks like not a...

2008-12-08T17:58:00.000-05:00

Hi Latte,
Thanks for your response.
Looks like not all of the precincts are willing to
separate out the possibly incorrectly rejected absentee ballots. Have you heard about this?
Also, other than this website, what do you think is the best source for recount news? MPR? Star Tribune? Other?
Still way too anxious!

Does anyone know when are we going to see the chal...

2008-12-08T17:12:00.000-05:00

Does anyone know when are we going to see the challenges removed from STrib and SOS totals?

@William Land et al:SOS is not going to decide on ...

2008-12-08T16:36:00.000-05:00

@William Land et al:

SOS is not going to decide on the missing ballots. The search has been called off today. He is kicking it to the Canvassing Board to decide:

http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/senate/35728824.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUnciaec8O7EyUsr

The Board will also rule on the 5th pile of the absentees. They start meeting "for real" on the 16th, though they keep meeting on procedural issues on and off.

Hope this info helps, but I know it does nothing for the anxiety, at least in my case.

~ Latte

Actually your title is still off. Shouldn't it rea...

2008-12-08T14:44:00.000-05:00

Actually your title is still off. Shouldn't it read: "Minnesota May Beheading Toward Resolution"

I AGREE with william land- it seems way too hard t...

2008-12-08T13:54:00.000-05:00

I AGREE with william land- it seems way too hard to quit MN cold turkey. i did hear that Franken has dropped more challenged ballots.
didnt hear anything else even theuptake has left...

What's the next step in this brutal, anxiety-provo...

2008-12-08T13:08:00.000-05:00

What's the next step in this brutal, anxiety-provoking process?
When will the SOS decide about the 133 "missing" ballots?
What about the absentee ballots?
Help!

You live and breathe statistics, you would pick *s...

2008-12-08T05:07:00.000-05:00

You live and breathe statistics, you would pick *some* winner, on the 50-50 odds you'll be right, rather than guarantee a shooting. ;-)

Bernard,I am sorry, but I just don't get it. I mea...

2008-12-07T23:33:00.000-05:00

Bernard,
I am sorry, but I just don't get it. I mean, I understand people saying that sort of thing in the Strib commentary, but one would think this is a bit of a more thoughtful forum... Guess one would think wrong.

Could you please explain to me how this would save you (or someone close to you) money at this point? The counting is mandated by law. If you wanted to avoid the recount, the only way then is to sue. And lose. Costing even more money.

At this point courts look inevitable. But how is that going to cost you money? One campaign or the other is going to sue, paying court costs, lawyers, etc.. The judge is already salaried and so is everyone else involved from the government side. I see no taxpayer money of any significance being involved at this point.

Unless, of course, this election is not properly resolved and winds up being settled by the US Senate. Then we are talking some serious dinero for the Senators' time wasted. So let's settle this thing locally on the cheap.

I am serious about where you see an expensive joke. Donald Trump's hairpiece is an expensive joke. The recount is nowhere near as funny.

~ Latte

wv - sixas: 666. I would not be at all surprised to find sixas on the back of Michele Bachmann's head.

I'm with the coin flippers. All this counting and ...

2008-12-07T23:17:00.000-05:00

I'm with the coin flippers. All this counting and suing and recounting is an expensive joke.

It's a tie. Flip a coin and be done with it.

@Michael (mbw):If Coleman has been able to spin th...

2008-12-07T21:14:00.000-05:00

@Michael (mbw):
If Coleman has been able to spin that "all this ruckus is Franken's fault" then all Franken needs to say is, "Can anyone imagine Coleman trailing the initial count by 215 votes and conceding the election?"
If Franken can't make a simple argument like this stick, then perhaps he deserves to lose (although I hope not).

wv: ouslyr: poll result lacking in credibility.