Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: On the Road: Grand Junction, Colorado

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2009-03-12T02:35:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T02:35:00.000-04:00

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2009-01-19T08:24:00.000-05:00

axmxz found that the NH +2 McCain poll had interna...

2008-09-24T14:37:00.000-04:00

axmxz found that the NH +2 McCain poll had internals of Dem. 24%, Rep. 31% and Ind. 41%.

That can be corrected to the actual registration numbers on 8/18/08, per the NH Sec. of State's office:

Dem. 263,217 (30.5%)
Rep. 268,108 (31.0%)
Ind. 332,217 (38.5%)
Tot. 863,542 (100.0%)

Republicans have a 0.5% party ID advantage, not 7%.

What were the internals again?

Sorry for the double post but I want visibility.Th...

2008-09-23T15:29:00.000-04:00

Sorry for the double post but I want visibility.

This hasn't made any sense to me.

Instead of complaining about people who only come in to buy yard signs, why not use the yard signs as a fundraising tool? Double the price. The demand curve is so steep that it'll hardly make a difference, plus there's a shortage now. Charge ten or fifteen dollars for a sign that cost one dollar to print.

At least that way the volunteers who actually want to contribute to the cause -- those knocking on doors -- get all the support they can get.

Also -- that silly 12-1 statistic. Please. That's for local elections where name recognition is like 25%. Name recognition is 100% in this election and most people have formed opinions. That 12 knocks sends another voter to the polls statistic is like 15, maybe 18, at the least in this election.

Groupthink sucks. Don't give into it.

I just read the whole study and I have a question....

2008-09-22T19:45:00.000-04:00

I just read the whole study and I have a question. Doesn't it show that you increase the propensity of the voter to vote for ALL voters, not just the one you support? So if you knock on Republican and Democrat doors as I did yesterday, you're not having any overall impact.

Jack Black, if that ad is real I hope the guy gets...

2008-09-22T19:02:00.000-04:00

Jack Black, if that ad is real I hope the guy gets an attorney cause he's gonna get sued for libel.

I'm reassured because it means VA is a tossup inst...

2008-09-22T19:00:00.000-04:00

I'm reassured because it means VA is a tossup instead of lean Obama. If Ras had Obama up, even +1, in addition to those two other polls, it would have meant it became lean Obama.

"Now the media is all [Wolf Blitzer Monotone]IT AA...

2008-09-22T18:35:00.000-04:00

"Now the media is all [Wolf Blitzer Monotone]IT AAAAAAALLLL COMES DOWNNN TO PENNNNNNNSYYYYYYLVANIA![/Wolf Blitzer Monotone]"

Are they really? Man, they're more clueless than I thought... I mean, not Colorado, not Ohio, not Florida, not Michigan, but Pennsylvania? But I guess it isn't a story if it's the same states all the time...

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2008_...

2008-09-22T18:31:00.001-04:00

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2008_fall_nhpres92208.pdf

University of New Hampshire interviewed 513 people over an 8 day period. I wonder if 1 teacher's assistant called all day and that was their poll. Anyway, it's got McCain up 2. Interesting. Colorado-NH= tie 269-269 right?

"I'm feeling better about VA now."That's because y...

2008-09-22T18:31:00.000-04:00

"I'm feeling better about VA now."

That's because you're an idiot. LOL.

Hello,Two polls came out in Vriginia today that ha...

2008-09-22T18:28:00.000-04:00

Hello,

Two polls came out in Vriginia today that have Obama up 6 and 3 points and you're reassured by a
+2M Ras poll? Virginia is probably about in line with the rest of the country right now, Obama +3-4. Tim Kaine's voters + more AA.

jack black said...Tito,Right you keep believing th...

2008-09-22T18:27:00.001-04:00

jack black said...

Tito,

Right you keep believing that there is a Rep. lean to Rasmussen...

It's not a matter of believe. It's a proven fact by how he constantly re-weights his polls to lean Republican when Obama's pulling ahead. He's in the tank for McCain because he doesn't want to give up his sweet high-profile Fox deal.

New thread.

2008-09-22T18:27:00.000-04:00

New thread.

I actually think Frankin is gonna win handily, and...

2008-09-22T18:26:00.002-04:00

I actually think Frankin is gonna win handily, and all the polls are gonna be way off. Lots of stoners would love a comedian senator.

Agreed. You have to be careful...but a little seep...

2008-09-22T18:26:00.001-04:00

Agreed. You have to be careful...but a little seepage is not a full-blown wad. I'll take my chances.

Yikes. Not me. Two generations of multiple planned one-shot, one-kills, and the lady was born long after her mother should have been barren. Better living through chemistry.

Minnesota elected Jesse "the Body", why not Al Fra...

2008-09-22T18:26:00.000-04:00

Minnesota elected Jesse "the Body", why not Al Franken?

"I'm going to try to move the debate somewhere els...

2008-09-22T18:24:00.003-04:00

"I'm going to try to move the debate somewhere else. Did I also see at Rasmussen that Al Franken is 1 point behind Coleman, 48-47? Maybe I have been watching "Trading Places" too much recently, but, seriously. Norm Coleman is a hell of a successful politician, especially given MN's slight leftward leaning state. And he can't put away Al Franken? Seriously..."

Um...Coleman is only a senator today because his competition 6 years ago died in an airplace crash????!!! Oh yeah, thats correct.

Tito,Right you keep believing that there is a Rep....

2008-09-22T18:24:00.002-04:00

Tito,

Right you keep believing that there is a Rep. lean to Rasmussen; do you want me to quote what you left wing nuts said about SUSA when it had McCain up 20 in NC.

Ras. had VA tied last time, now McCain is up 2, but he is up!

By the way, I did post RAs's numbers today.

I precum like an elephant in a nature videoWhoa......

2008-09-22T18:24:00.001-04:00

I precum like an elephant in a nature video

Whoa...now there's an unpleasant image etched onto my retina.

@ Vanessa - Didn't see that about PA. Do you have...

2008-09-22T18:24:00.000-04:00

@ Vanessa - Didn't see that about PA. Do you have a link?

"This post contains sexual contetnt. Reader discre...

2008-09-22T18:23:00.001-04:00

"This post contains sexual contetnt. Reader discresion is advised.

Precum, Mule. It's all about the precum."

I precum like an elephant in a nature video, I swear to god. Hmm, forget I said that everyone.

So I hear no one talking about the New Hampshire +...

2008-09-22T18:23:00.000-04:00

So I hear no one talking about the New Hampshire +2 M poll. I checked out its internals. Here's what I found:

Out of 550 randomly sampled adults, the subsample of 523 likely November voters broke down as follows:

REGISTERED DEMOCRAT 24%
REGISTERED INDEPENDENT 41%
REGISTERED REPUBLICAN 31%

A +7 Republican party advantage is used, and McCain was only up by 2? Nice.

Mason,Agreed. You have to be careful...but a littl...

2008-09-22T18:22:00.001-04:00

Mason,

Agreed. You have to be careful...but a little seepage is not a full-blown wad. I'll take my chances.

New ad out now in Virginia, Ohio and Penn.The anno...

2008-09-22T18:22:00.000-04:00

New ad out now in Virginia, Ohio and Penn.

The announcer's name is Jack Smith:

My name is Jack Smith and I was born and raised in Bristol. VA. I have been hunting and fishing and worshiping my whole life in these parts.

Barack Obama accused me of clinging to my bible because I am bitter; what Christian would accuse another Christian of clinging to his bible.

Who is Barack Hussein Obama and is he really a Christian?

I'm Jack Black and I approve of this message.