Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Senate Rankings, April 2009 Edition

The survey found that consumer 3G wholesale china ...

2009-10-15T02:34:13.429-04:00

The survey found that consumer 3G wholesale china from the crowd of view, the buyer 25 to 40 years old mainly white-collar workers, accounting for about 40%, followed by consumer groups of students, accounting for about three into. According to statistics, 3G wholesale products in sales, compared with a 2G mobile phone sales are still a wide gap between, but since June has been, 3G mobile phones increase in the average monthly buy products for more than 50%, "11" period due to holiday business, the increase of more than 150%. Pk that the "11" after the peak sales of 3G handsets likely to usher in more stable growth.

By comparing the traditional Internet users, Inter...

2009-10-15T02:33:30.065-04:00

By comparing the traditional Internet users, Internet users to iResearch found that the traditional white-collar-based, cell phones wholesale, corporate general staff accounted for 18.9%, higher than the 5.6% of the wholesale cell phones users accounting; and discount cell phones users in the years students and blue-collar workers accounted for significantly more than the traditional Internet users, respectively, accounting for 19.5% and 18.9%, higher than the traditional Internet users Students and blue-collar workers accounted for 7.8% and 5.1% respectively.

From cell phones users to see the specific situati...

2009-10-15T02:32:57.997-04:00

From cell phones users to see the specific situation of occupational segmentation in 2009, accounting for 19.5% of students dropped 21.2 percent over last year, other types of occupations than those last year, the proportion of Internet users cheap cell phones increase. White collar crowd from last year's 29.2% increase to 38.9% this year, accounting for 9.7 percentage points up to replace the student groups cellphone users as one of the biggest occupational hierarchy; blue-collar crowd from last year's 13.9% to 18.9% this year, accounting for rose by 5.0 percentage points, showing that mobile phones users by a group of students to the occupational groups a significant trend in the development. Ereli advice that, cheap cell phones and mobile phone users Internet users monthly income distribution of age, education, occupational distribution has strong correlation with high spending capacity of white-collar workers and some students in the crowd will be a huge cell phone china online potential consumer groups.

BTW, Bennet (D) Colorado, is spelled with one "t",...

2009-05-02T00:32:00.000-04:00

BTW, Bennet (D) Colorado, is spelled with one "t", not two.

Bennet, CO, has raised over $1.5 million in 3 mont...

2009-05-02T00:30:00.000-04:00

Bennet, CO, has raised over $1.5 million in 3 months and is methodically covering every county in the State winning over his party, the Unaffiliated (majority) and conservatives. Any Democrat seeking statewide office doesn't have a prayer of getting elected unless they are moderate and independent of liberal ideology. Bennet will have no serious primary or general election opponent. He will win his Senate seat by a comfortable margin in 2010.

Due to Specter-PA party switch and Bunning retirem...

2009-04-30T20:19:00.000-04:00

Due to Specter-PA party switch and Bunning retirement. Crist running in FL, Cooper running in NC,Castle running in DE, Kirk running in IL.

1)NH(OPEN-Gregg-R)
2)MO(OPEN-Bond-R)
3)OH(OPEN-Voinovich-R)
4)KY(OPEN-Bunning-R)
5)NC(Burr-R)
6)CT(Dodd-D)
7)CO(Bennett-D)
8)DE(OPEN-Kaufman-D)
9)IL(OPEN-Burris-D)
10)NY(Gillibrand-D)
11)FL(OPEN-Martinez-R)
12)KS(OPEN-Brownback-R)
13)AR(Lincoln-D)
14)LA(Vitter-R)
15)NV(Reid-D)
16)GA(Isakson-R)
17)WI(Feingold-D)
18)OK(Coburn-R)
19)WA(Murray-D)
20)SC(DeMint-R)
21)CA(Boxer-D)
22)AK(Murkowski-R)
23)SD(Thune-R)
24)ND(Dorgan-D)
25)IN(Bayh-D)
26)AZ(McCain-R)
27)IA(Grassley-R)
28)HI(Inouye-D)
29)VT(Leahy-D)
30)PA(Specter-D)
31)MD(Mikulski-D)
32)AL(Shelby-R)
33)OR(Wyden-D)
34)UT(Bennett-R)
35)NY(Schumer-D)
36)ID(Crapo-R)

Regarding the Illinios US Senate Race. Madigan,Giannoulias or Schakowsky is favored to defeat Kirk. Madigan is the front runner in the US Senate race and the Governors race. Every Statewide Elected Official in IL (Quinn,Madigan,Hynes,and Giannoulias)are ambitious in running for higher Statewide Office. Pat Quinn- the current Governor will run for a first full term as Governor and should be the Democratic Nominee for the 2010 IL Governor's Race. Lisa Madigan-the current IL Attorney General should run for the US Senate in 2010. Dan Hynes the current IL Comptroller should run for IL Attorney General in 2010. Giannoulias the current Treasurer runs for Lt Governor. Hynes and Giannoulias can use their position as a stepping stone to run for US Senate in 2014 or 2020 when Durbin decides to retire or Governor in 2018 when Quinn leaves office. If Durbin retires in 2014- Hynes runs for the US Senate gets elected. Giannoulias runs for Governor in 2018. or Madigan runs for Governor in 2018 and appoints Giannoulias to her US Senate Seat.
If Durbin retires in 2020. Madigan runs for Governor in 2018. She appoints Giannoulias to her US Senate Seat who will have to run in a special Election in 2020 and full first term in 2022. Hynes runs for the Durbin seat.

Another way of getting rid of Bayh(IN)is convince ...

2009-04-22T00:59:00.000-04:00

Another way of getting rid of Bayh(IN)is convince him to run for Governor of Indiana in 2012 when Mitch Daniels-R is term limited.

To Simon on April 10 - It is WELL worth challengin...

2009-04-21T21:52:00.000-04:00

To Simon on April 10 - It is WELL worth challenging Bayh in the primary. If someone gets close enough that he fears losing the primary, he's likely to pay more attention to, ahem, Democrats than he has done...

See John Cornyn's appalling comments re Bayh on BlueIndiana.net

http://www.blueindiana.net/showDiary.do?diaryId=3801

US Senate Race where Statewide Elected officials(L...

2009-04-20T22:30:00.000-04:00

US Senate Race where Statewide Elected officials(Lt Governor,Attorney General,Secretary of State,Treasurer)are running.
DE(OPEN-Kaufman-D)- Democratic Nominee- Beau Biden-D - State AG and son of VP and former US Senator Joe Biden.
IL(OPEN-Burris-D)- Democratic Nominee- Alexi Giannoulias-D- State Treasurer and protege of US President and former US Senator Barack Obama.
KY(Bunning-R)- Democratic candidates- Lt Governor Dan Mongiardo and Attorney General Jack Conway. either of those candidates are favored to defeat Bunning.
MO(OPEN-Bond-R)- Democratic nominee- Secretary of State Robin Carnahan- Daughter of late Governor Mel Carnahan and former US Senator Jean Carnahan.
NC(Burr-R)- Democratic candidate- Attorney General Roy Cooper is favored to unseat Burr should he decide to run.
OH(OPEN-Voinovich-R)- Democratic candidate- Lt Governor Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner- either of those candidate are favored to defeat GOP nominee Robert Portman.

Looking at the 2010 US Senate Races. US Senate Ra...

2009-04-20T22:08:00.000-04:00

Looking at the 2010 US Senate Races.
US Senate Races- Governors or Former Governors are potential candidates.
Term limited Governors.
Schwarzenneger-(R-CA) decided not to run against Boxer(D-CA). Would have been a clear underdog had he ran.
Lingle(R-HI)- The only scenario of Lingle running for the US Senate is if Inouye retires or gets indicted and convicted-(Ted Stevens AK). Lingle is still underdog W/O Inouye.
Henry(D-OK)- Henry-D is a popular Governor. Coburn-R is a polarizing Incumbent US Senator. A Henry vs Coburn matchup can be a tossup.
Rendell(D-PA) The only scenario of Rendell running for the US Senate is if Specter retires.
Specter is likely to lose in the GOP Primary to Pat Toomey- who will lose in the general election to a second tier Democratic candidate- Philidelphia Area US Reps Schwartz,Sestak or Murphy. and Joe Torsella- the National Constitution Center CEO. If Specter is the GOP nominee- 2010 PA US Senate race can be a pure tossup. This is identical to the 2008 Oregon US Senate race. Democrats nominated a third tier candidate Jeff Merkly to challenge Gordon Smith. Smith lost narrowly to Merkley. If Toomey is the Republican Nominee. The 2010 PA US Senate Race will be identical to the 2008 CO US Senate Race. Republican nominated an unelectable candidate- a rightwing conservative former US Congressman. Democrats nominated a mainstream US Congressman from Boulder.

RCP is reporting that Tom Coburn isn't sure whethe...

2009-04-20T20:34:00.000-04:00

RCP is reporting that Tom Coburn isn't sure whether he will run again.

IF Coburn doesn't run and IF Democratic Governor Brad Henry (who won 70% in his re-election bid in 2006) were persuaded to run for the Senate (two big ifs, to be sure) then Oklahoma would suddenly look like a pretty good pickup opportunity for the Democrats.

2010 US Senate Rankings. Likely Takeover 1)NH(OPEN...

2009-04-20T19:43:00.000-04:00

2010 US Senate Rankings.
Likely Takeover
1)NH(OPEN-Gregg-R)
Blue State. Strong DEM Barring Sununu- Weak GOP.
2)MO-(OPEN-Bond-R)
Purple State. Strong DEM Weak GOP.
Lean Takeover
3)NC-(Burr-R)
Purple State. Strong DEM challenger. Weak GOP incumbent.
4)KY-(Bunning-R)
Red State- Strong DEM Challenger. Weak GOP incumbent.
5)PA(OPEN-Specter-R)
Blue State Weak GOP.
6)OH(OPEN-Voinovich-R)
Purple State. Weak GOP.
Tossup.
7)FL(OPEN-Martinez-R)
Purple State. Barring Crist Weak GOP.
Lean Retention.
8)CT(Dodd-D)
9)NV(Reid-D)
10)LA(Vitter-R)
Likely Retention.
11)CO(Bennett-D)
12)NY-B(Gillibrand-D)
13)IL(OPEN-Burris-D)
Safe Retention.
14)DE(OPEN-Kaufman-D)
15)KS-(OPEN-Brownback-R)
16)AZ(McCain-R)
17)CA(Boxer-D)
18)WA(Murray-D)
19)WI(Feingold-D)
20)AR(Lincoln-D)
21)OK(Coburn-R)
22)AK(Murkowski-R)
23)SC(DeMint-R)
24)SD(Thune-R)
25)GA(Isakson-R)
26)HI(Inouye-D)
27)VT(Leahy-D)
28)IA(Grassley-R)
29)MD(Mikulski-D)
30)AL(Shelby-R)
31)ND(Dorgan-D)
32)UT(Bennett-R)
33)OR(Wyden-D)
34)IN(Bayh-D)
35)NY-A(Schumer-D)
36)ID-(Crapo-R)

2010 US Senate Race Likely Takeover 1)NH-(OPEN-Gre...

2009-04-20T15:52:00.000-04:00

2010 US Senate Race
Likely Takeover
1)NH-(OPEN-Gregg-R)-(Hodes-D)
2)PA-(OPEN-Specter-R)-(Torsella-D)
3)MO-(OPEN-Bond-R)-(Carnahan-D)
Lean Takeover
4)OH-(OPEN-Voinovich-R)-(Fisher-D)
5)KY-(Bunning-R)-(Conway-D)
6)NC-(Burr-R)-(Cooper-D)
Tossup.
7)FL-(OPEN-Martinez-R)
Lean Retention
8)LA-(Vitter-R)
9)CT-(Dodd-D)
10)NV-(Reid-D)
11)CO-(Bennett-D)
Likely Retention
12)IL-(OPEN-Burris-D)(Giannoulias-D)
13)TX-(Special(OPEN-Hutchison-R)
14)NY-Special(Gillibrand-D)
15)DE-Special-OPEN-Kaufman-D)(Biden-D)
16)KS-(OPEN-Brownback-R)-(Moran-R)
17)OK-(Coburn-R)
18)AR-(Lincoln-D)
19)CA-(Boxer-D)
20)WA-(Murray-D)
21)WI-(Feingold-D)
22)AZ-(McCain-R)
Safe Incumbent
23)GA-(Isakson-R)
24)SC-(DeMint-R)
25)AK-(Murkowski-R)
26)SD-(Thune-R)
27)IA-(Grassley-R)
28)ND-(Dorgan-D)
29)IN-(Bayh-D)
30)HI-(Inouye-D)
31)VT-(Leahy-D)
32)AL-(Shelby-R)
33)MD-(Mikulski-D)
34)UT-(Bennett-R)
35)OR-(Wyden-D)
36)NY-(Schumer-D)
37)ID-(Crapo-R)

Democratic Pick ups
NH- Blue State,Open Seat,Top Tier Democratic Candidate- US Rep Paul Hodes, Weak GOP opposition-
PA- Blue State- Open Seat due to Specter's defeat in GOP primary. Likely Democratic Nominee-Joe Torsella is second tier candidate behind Philadelphia Burbs US Reps (Schwartz,Sestak,and Murphy-D)-Whoever the DEM nominee is benifits from the divisive GOP primary. The Specter Republicans will support Torsella over Toomey.
MO- Purple State-OPEN Seat. Democrats have a top tier candidate- Robin Carnahan-D. Likely Republican nominee US Rep Roy Blunt is very unpopular due to ties with Tom Delay.
OH-Purple State-OPEN-Seat. Republican Nominee- Robert Portman is unpopular due to ties with Bush 43. Democratic Nominee- Lee Fisher has backing of popular DEM Governor Ted Strickland.
KY- Weak,Controversial,and Senile Republican opponent-Jim Bunning. Democratic Nominee Jack Conway is a popular statewide Elected Official.
NC- weak and controversial Republican opponent-Richard Burr. Democratic Nominee- Roy Cooper is a popular Statewide elected official.
Tossup or Lean Retention
FL- (OPEN Seat and Purple State). If Crist runs and wins the GOP nomination. FL stays Republican. If Crist runs and loses the GOP nomination. Democratic Pickup.
If Crist does not run- Tossup.
Lean Retention due to weak Incumbent and Lack of Top Tier opposition.
LA(Vitter-R)-
CT(Dodd-D)
CO(Bennett-D)
NV(Reid-D)

Nate, I think it's likely that as Burris becomes...

2009-04-16T21:38:00.000-04:00

Nate,

I think it's likely that as Burris becomes less controversial and Blagogate anger subsides, the seat becomes more likely to switch hands in 2010. If Burris is seen as a credible candidate independent of the Blagovich scandals, he increases his chances of winning a narrow plurality among Democratic voters in the crowded 2010 primary. Should this happen, the Republicans' odds of taking the seat become vastly more realistic. Burris's slow acceptance as a legitimate legislator may in the long run endanger the seat. I think you yourself may have expressed similar feelings in other posts. Just a thought, keep up the good work.

OH and KY are two states which two ambitious Democ...

2009-04-13T02:53:00.000-04:00

OH and KY are two states which two ambitious Democratic Statewide elected officials are running for the US Senate- Lt Governors Lee Fisher(OH) and Dan Mongiardo(KY) have the endorsements from their former runningmates- Ted Strickland and Steve Beshear. Fisher(OH) and Mongiardo(KY) are being challenged in the primary by Sect of State Jennifer Brunner(OH) and Mongiardo(KY) is being challenged by Attorney General Jack Conway(KY).

Fisher(OH) is the only person who has been a candidate who won Statewide Office more than once.

Fisher was narrowly elected OH Attorney General in 1990 against a State Senator who made an unsucessful run for US Senate and Governor in the 1980's- 1990 was The year Republicans in Ohio were popular- Voinovich/DeWine were elected Governor/Lt Governor. Taft elected Secretary of State unseating Sherrod Brown. Fisher lost re-election as Attorney General in 1994 against Betty Montgomery- a State Senator from the Toledo Area. 1994 was a pro GOP year in OHIO and nationally. Fisher runs for Governor in 1998- narrowly loses to Bob Taft- who was then a sitting Secretary of State. In 2006 Fisher was elected Lt Governor alongside with Governor Ted Strickland.

Jennifer Brunner only won one Statewide Election. S.O.S position in 2006 against a Clerk from the Hamilton County Court. 2006 was a pro Democratic year in Ohio and at the national level.

Dan Mongiardo then a state Senator narrowly lost a US Senate race in 2004 to Jim Bunning. In 2007- Mongiardo was elected Lt Governor alongside Steve Beshear.

Jack Conway was elected Attorney General in 2007 against the Minority Whip of the KY state house.

The 2010 OH US Senate race is do or die for Lee Fisher. If Fisher loses the Democratic nomination- his carreer in statewide politics is over. Jennifer Brunner-if she loses in the Democratic primary can make a comeback in 2014 by running for Governor along with Richard Cordray or Tim Ryan.

Regarding the 2010 KY US Senate Race- who ever loses the Democratic nomination is the frontrunner to run for the other KY US Senate seat in 2014 against Mitch McConnell. or Governor in 2015.

Looking which US Senator loses re-election in 2010...

2009-04-12T23:15:00.000-04:00

Looking which US Senator loses re-election in 2010.

Specter(PA) loses in the Republican primary.
The General Election matchup between Joe Torsella(D)vs Pat Toomey(R) is a tossup. I would give the edge to Torsella.

Burris(IL) loses in the Democratic primary to Alexi Giannoulias(IL). Giannoulias is strongly favored to in the general election.

Bunning(KY) loses in the general election to Democratic challenger Jack Conway.

Burr(NC) loses in the general election to Democratic challenger Roy Cooper.

Looking at the OPEN Seats.
Beau Biden(DE) wins by a landslide margin against Christine O'Donnell.

OPEN-FL seat is too close to call between Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek vs Republican nominee Marco Rubio.

Jerry Moran(KS) wins the Republican primary and the General election by a landslide margin.

Robin Carnahan(MO) wins against her Repubican Opponent Roy Blunt by a 57-42 percent margin.

Paul Hodes(NH)wins by a landslide margin against an unknown GOP candidate- Ovide Lamontagne. ex US Senator John Sununu and ex US Congressman Charlie Bass run for their old US House seats.

Lee Fisher(OH)wins the Democratic primary and defeats his Republican opponent Robert Portman in the general election by a 52-47 percent margin.

@dsimon:I agree with you; a year is an eternity in...

2009-04-12T22:31:00.000-04:00

@dsimon:

I agree with you; a year is an eternity in politics. It is entirely possible that Dodd was thrown under the bus for temporary convenience, but nine months from now, if it looks like he needs help, the Obama admin will bend over backward to keep a Democratic Senator seated.

Same thing with the Democratically led Senate. This is the game; you get humiliated this quarter and take one for the team, but not one member of the majority in the Senate and not one staffer in the White House wants Dodd to lose his seat, and it will be worth millions to them and whatever it takes to boost his profile when needed.

At the moment he is a convenient whipping boy. They know it. He knows it. He needs to take a few bullets for the chief, but count on a Dodd redemption and reward down the road. They'll make him a hero when it counts.

Matt: Dodd will lose.Don't mean to address this to...

2009-04-12T22:15:00.000-04:00

Matt: Dodd will lose.

Don't mean to address this to Matt specifically, but isn't it a tad early to be making such predictions with what looks like certainty? We're over 18 months away from the general election, folks; that's several lifetimes in politics. I can envision many scenarios where in a year the economy is into recovery and most people don't know or don't remember about Dodd's "scandals" (some possibly deserved but some not).

A little humility when facing the unknown is never a bad idea.

Opus 132Toomey loses if the 2010 US Senate Electio...

2009-04-12T21:53:00.000-04:00

Opus 132
Toomey loses if the 2010 US Senate Election cycle is a neutral cycle like in 1998.

In the 2010 US Senate election cycle is like 1994- when the Republicans took over the US Senate and House (Gingrich Revolution)- then Toomey wins.

I was mentioning that if Obama is unpopular like Bill Clinton was in 1994- then Toomey wins- just like Santorum did in 1994 against Harris Wofford.

Had 1994 been a neutral year
Bob Carr(D)would have defeated Spence Abraham(R) in MI.
Ann Wynia(D)would have defeated Rod Grams(R) in MN.
Harris Wofford(D)would have defeated Rick Santorum(R) in PA.

@ nkpolitics1279What changed between 5:40 PM (Toom...

2009-04-12T21:38:00.000-04:00

@ nkpolitics1279

What changed between 5:40 PM (Toomey loses) and 8:59 PM (Toomey wins)?

Or does it stay a tossup due to Mike Castle's popu...

2009-04-12T20:59:00.000-04:00

Or does it stay a tossup due to Mike Castle's popularity? Who is this Castle guy, and why hasn't he declared running for Senate yet if he's got such a good chance to win it, even against the Biden dynasty?

Mike Castle is the current At Large US House Member from DE- He has served in the US House of Representatives since 1992- Before that he served two terms as Governor of DE(1984-1992) and two terms as Lt Governor of DE(1976-1984). He is a popular statewide elected official of DE for more than 30 years. Had the late Bill Roth- decided to retire from the US Senate in 2000- Castle would have ran for the US Senate against Tom Carper- who then was completing his second term as Governor.

During the 1970's DE US Senate Seat was held by Bill Roth(R)and Joe Biden(D).
Roth(R)was elected in 1970,re-elected in 1976,1982,1988,and 1994.
Biden(D)was elected in 1972,1978,1984,1990,1996,2002,and 2008.
Mike Castle was elected Lt Governor 1980. Elected Governor 1984,re-elected Governor in 1988. In 1992- Castle ran for the at Large DE US House seat vacated by Tom Carper who was elected Governor of DE in 1992.
Tom Carper- elected DE Treasurer 1976, re-elected 1978 and 1980. Elected to US House in 1982,re-elected in 1984,1986,1988,and 1990. Elected Governor in 1992 and 1996.Elected to US Senate in 2000 re-elected in 2006.

Castle,Carper,and Biden Sr are popular politicians from DE.

DE US Senate Race is only a tossup because of Mike Castle's personal popularity- Castle decision not to run for the US Senate has to do with with the fact he is too old to be in a competitive race. If Castle gets elected to the US Senate in 2010- He will be 71. Castle will have to run again in 2014 when he is 75.
Beau Biden-if he is elected to the US Senate in 2010 can serve in the US Senate for more than 30 years like his father.

The referendum on Barack Obama will occur in US Senate Races in
Arkansas(Lincoln-D will face a closer than expected race.)
Colorado-(Bennett-D will face a closer than expected race.)
Connecticut-(Dodd-D loses.)-Dodd lose has more to do with his own doing than Obama's popularity.
Florida-OPEN- Kendrick Meeks loses.
Nevada-(Reid-D will face a closer than expected race against Jon Porter if Porter runs.
Pat Toomey(PA)get elected to the US Senate.

Gillibrand(NY)will face a closer than expected race against Pataki or King.

Giannoulias(IL)gets elected to the US Senate by a 55-45 percent margin.

Hodes(NH),Carnahan(MO),Fisher/Brunner(OH),Mongiardo/Conway(KY)and perhaps Cooper(NC) are going to get elected- due to their high popularity in their home state and the weakness of their GOP opponent than Obama's popularity.

Thanks markymark... Would a "referendum"-type elec...

2009-04-12T18:58:00.000-04:00

Thanks markymark...

Would a "referendum"-type election apply in a place like Delaware though? I assumed that only happened in states that are tossups, not reliably blue states?

Or does it stay a tossup due to Mike Castle's popularity? Who is this Castle guy, and why hasn't he declared running for Senate yet if he's got such a good chance to win it, even against the Biden dynasty?

My 2010 US Senate Ranking.1)NH- Open Seat- Blue St...

2009-04-12T17:40:00.000-04:00

My 2010 US Senate Ranking.
1)NH- Open Seat- Blue State (Democrats are united behind US Rep Paul Hodes). No top tier Republican candidate- ex US Senator John Sununu,ex Governor Stephen Merrill or ex US Rep Charlie Bass has made any decision to enter. Hodes is favored to defeat either Sununu,Merrill or Bass.
2)MO- Open Seat- Purple State- (Democrats are united behind Secretary of State Robin Carnahan). Republican have a primary between (ex US House Minority Whip Roy Blunt and ex Treasurer Sarah Steelman).
3)OH- Open Seat- Purple State- (Democrats have a primary between Lt Governor Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner). who ever wins the Democratic primary is favored to defeat Republican nominee ex US Rep and OMB Director and US Trade Rep Rob Portman.
4)KY- (Bunning-R)- Bunning will run again and get the Republican nomination. Democrats have two top tier candidates- (Lt Governor Dan Mongiordo and Attorney General Jack Conway)-who ever wins the Democratic nomination is favored to unseat Bunning.
5)NC-(Burr-R)- Democratic Nominee-AG Roy Cooper. Cooper defeats Burr.
6)PA- (Specter-R)- loses in the GOP primary to ex US Rep Pat Toomey who will lose to likely Democratic Nominee Joe Torsella by a narrow margin.
7)FL-(OPEN-)- Crist decides against running for the US Senate- runs for re-election as Governor- The race becomes a tossup-
8)CT-(Dodd-D)- either going to lose by a narrow margin or survive by a narrow margin.

GROG - I felt the exact same way about the Nationa...

2009-04-12T17:39:00.000-04:00

GROG - I felt the exact same way about the National Enquirer when they were the only ones reporting on John Edwards purported affair. Now, I'm not so sure...

i gree with your rankings, nate. they make good s...

2009-04-12T16:21:00.000-04:00

i gree with your rankings, nate. they make good sense. a few points i'd like argue with from the posters:

1. "Running to the middle doesn't work in Colorado." Hmm, that would be besides Senator Salazar or Governor Ritter? They are both moderate. A serious primary challenge might happen, but I think is less likely. Bennet has to be considered a slight favorite.

The top 3 (NH, KY and PA) have to be considered slight advantages for the Dems, but if Grayson runs in KY for the GOP or Specter looks stronger in the primary, then they become tossups at best.