Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Warner Will Be Dems' Keynoter [UPDATED]

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2009-10-08T06:30:33.460-04:00

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2009-09-15T01:57:04.857-04:00

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2009-02-15T22:06:00.000-05:00

( Hagel also voted yes in Oct 2002 )If all of the ...

2008-08-13T20:16:00.000-04:00

( Hagel also voted yes in Oct 2002 )

If all of the announced speakers are in fact not going to be the vp pick, and if anyone who voted for the war is not going to be the vp pick, and IF all of the public denials by other vetted candidates ( Webb, Reed, etc. ) are true, the field of running mates is narrowed quite a bit.

The Dem Senators that are still in office and voted NO and aren't already speaking and haven't publicly declined are a thin list.

Of the Dem Governors who aren't speaking at the convention, and all the figures from the past ( Gore, Kerry, Nunn )

Gov Kaine?
Gov Richardson?
Sen Reed?
Gen Clark? ( "... Securing America’s Future,” which just also happens to be the name of Gen. Wesley Clark’s political action committee...." )

Either one of the speakers is going to be the pick, OR someone who has previously declined has been convinced to say Yes, OR the pick will be a complete surprise, a previously unsuspected candidate.

Powell quite possibly could have become president ...

2008-08-13T19:10:00.000-04:00

Powell quite possibly could have become president as a republican but he stepped aside like a butler for Bush. Powell embarrassed us all with that cock sure about bullshit UN presentation. Powell is old news, leave him dead and buried, (politically). And anyone that could raise a jackass like his son, no way never.

ALEX S, -I believe that it was announced that Chel...

2008-08-13T19:08:00.000-04:00

ALEX S, -

I believe that it was announced that Chelsea would be the intro speaker for Hillary.

Have Caroline Kennedy & Maria Shiver been announced yet for speaking slots ???

Those ladies are DEM royalty & should get Teddy's slot...

Barack,Please please please please go after Colin ...

2008-08-13T18:58:00.000-04:00

Barack,

Please please please please go after Colin Powell for VP. I beg you.

gliadrachan:Good point about Clinton and the dog a...

2008-08-13T18:46:00.000-04:00

gliadrachan:

Good point about Clinton and the dog and pony show. The other half of my mind, perhaps the better half, keeps coming back to that problem. Bayh should definitely be disqualified because he put on his own dog and pony in support of the war with McCain no less. Despite millions of us out in the streets against the war to let the dems know it would be okay to oppose the war they let themselves be bullied into it. Sad and bad when the leadership is so far behind the party. I like Biden a lot personally but as a party grey beard he blew his moment to stand with Byrd against the madness, and Byrd needed the help.
So can I say if O does pick a pro-war VP despite their failing us all, it should be Clinton? The "carpet bagging" junior senator from New York, a woman, with an eye on the presidency, thought she needed to be "tough" like Schumer, like the majority of the boys. Iraq had nothing to do with the Twin Towers but was it an extra political calculation for these two anyway? Anybody for an anti-war woman, Murry,( WA) or Stabenow,(MI)?

Well, they could always pull a bait-and-switch wit...

2008-08-13T18:32:00.000-04:00

Well, they could always pull a bait-and-switch with Sebelius or Schweitzer...fingers crossed...

Looks like the Top Three are Bayh, Clark, and Biden. (Meh.) I think it's funny that Al Gore doesn't have a speaking slot scheduled, though, does he?

I modulate my comment above - I believe that it co...

2008-08-13T18:11:00.000-04:00

I modulate my comment above - I believe that it could be Hillary. Either Hillary or a "moderate white male".

"That doesn't give them much credibility for being foreign policy or security experts since they believed Cheney's dog and pony show about Iraq."

Yes, but McCain is essentially running on the claim that he still believes the Cheney version.

The Magic Perfect Progressive Who Can Win Fairy isn't running this year.

There are two realistic choices. The Democrats or McCain. All actions that you can take effectively support one or the other.

Hilary voted for the war in Iraq, as did Bayh and ...

2008-08-13T18:01:00.000-04:00

Hilary voted for the war in Iraq, as did Bayh and Biden.

That doesn't give them much credibility for being foreign policy or security experts since they believed Cheney's dog and pony show about Iraq.

Robby:Thanks, its exciting, my first response.Abou...

2008-08-13T17:56:00.000-04:00

Robby:

Thanks, its exciting, my first response.
About waking up sleeping elephants, yes I agree that is a potential worry but on the other hand I say that side always show up in the end anyway, like those guys from “Night of the Living Dead” or those girls from “The Stepford Wives”.
About the argument insulting women, if so it’s not my insult, truly I am reporting what my women co-workers are telling me. To elaborate, they are sympathetic to the PUMA arguments although definitely too liberal to ever think about saying they might vote for McCain. They want Clinton to be recognized as the other powerbase in the party and they want her collaborated with, not put down. In a feminine spirit they say why not share? Obama lapped the field except remember Clinton was right there with him, almost as many votes, almost as many delegates. We have two women senators and a woman governor and those of us that elected them like the way women approach the job. It seemed that Obama approaches the job in the same way. So Obama, join up, take on the other super candidate, she paid her dues. I believe it is in that sense that they don’t want any woman other than Clinton, this time, not forever. For the reasons I put forth before, the VP needs to be a woman and that woman needs to be Clinton to keep the base enthused about the GOTV work we all need to do. .

Awww... good bye Sebelius AND Schweitzer... damn, ...

2008-08-13T17:38:00.000-04:00

Awww... good bye Sebelius AND Schweitzer... damn, I hope it´s not Bayh or Kaine, but Bayh has to be regarded as the favorite now. It makes sense if Hagel, Clark and Biden speak on Wednesday, but Bayh´s strength would have been the economy.

borderparkI'm kinda sick of the "it can't be a wom...

2008-08-13T16:49:00.000-04:00

borderpark

I'm kinda sick of the "it can't be a woman if it's not Hillary" logic, mainly because it's a little insulting to women.

Hillary Clinton worked all her life to break glass ceilings for women, only to construct a brand new one right underneath her? I'm sorry, I just don't buy it.

On a strategic side, putting Clinton ticket takes away our biggest advantage this cycle: depressed GOP morale.

We can now rule out these people as Obama's runnin...

2008-08-13T16:48:00.001-04:00

We can now rule out these people as Obama's running mate- http://thepage.time.com/2008/08/13/tuesday-in-denver-comes-into-focus/
IT WONT BE SEBELIUS OR SCHWEITZER.

Sebelius is now a speaker - and scheduled. But r...

2008-08-13T16:48:00.000-04:00

Sebelius is now a speaker - and scheduled.

But really? How hard would it be to simply move the day.

The dems should get someone to really trumpet the ...

2008-08-13T16:38:00.000-04:00

The dems should get someone to really trumpet the new stance they are making in the new abortion platform. It is going from safe, legal, and rare - to fast, legal, and free. Slate has a great article on this abortion issue and the Dems taking back the issue.

I like Obama/Clinton very much because I want to w...

2008-08-13T16:20:00.000-04:00

I like Obama/Clinton very much because I want to win and I don’t want to take any chances about winning. After 8 years of Bush, with Supreme Court nominations surely coming up, after the next 5 months where Bush with administrative rulings and executive orders shreds vast amounts of progress we cannot let Old John take over. If we have another Republican administration, say goodbye to progress, health care, and the middle class and watch the immigration problem disappear as our entry wages fall to near par with Mexico.
No to Sebelius, it would be madness. I work with a women’s concern as their accountant and these 16 women and my wife were mostly Obama supporters in the caucuses here in Washington State. They are definitely not PUMA’s; but, and you better believe this antidotal evidence, they get very angry at the idea of a woman other than Clinton getting the spot. They believe she has earned it and Obama better remember which sex is his base. They don’t want to anoint a conservative from a dinky red state. The wind would be out of the liberal’s sails and Obama better also remember that he is running a campaign based on GOTV, the ground game, and self funding.
Naturally McCain will pick his VP second. Republicans do not give away advantages. If Obama picks a white guy, McCain will pick a woman, (almost immediately), and have his own instant change pitch. The race will be a dead heat and the republicans will be close enough to get away dragging him into the mud.
I know Obama is a smart guy and one of the things that means is that he has better polling then we see. Naturally, he has a little, or probably a lot of dislike for Clinton after her behavior in the delegate race, not to mention her current catharsis. I have believed all along he has been looking at those polls and saying can I win for sure without Clinton. I say we know now the answer is no, not for sure, and I say he needs to suck it up and pick her for the good of the country and the party. On the bright side, raising money, holding blue states, and flipping Ohio, and/or New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, and/or Florida gets much easier. OC in 08, we need to turn this turkey of a government around!

Hillary isn´t out on Tuesday, she will speak, too,...

2008-08-13T15:50:00.000-04:00

Hillary isn´t out on Tuesday, she will speak, too, before Mark Warner. By now, I also wonder if this combination of hers and Warner is an implicit threat: If the Clintons try to spoil the race for Obama it´s not going to be Hillary in 2012...it´ll be Warner.

I also wonder why Gore doesn´t have a slot yet - and, just to test a hypothesis of mine, I wonder if Chelsea Clinton is going to speak (on a less prominent slot). Richardson is also missing, Clark, too, but I guess he will speak as "chairman" of the Veteran/military agenda.

Well, if he was going to pick Clinton, of course h...

2008-08-13T15:36:00.000-04:00

Well, if he was going to pick Clinton, of course he'd do it once the talking heads convinced themselves it'd be someone else.

But I concur: Clinton is a baaaad VP pick, for several reasons. I hope you're wrong about this, David.

I think everyone is missing what is going on here....

2008-08-13T14:55:00.000-04:00

I think everyone is missing what is going on here. Someone above made the point and it occured to me this morning as well. Hillary is out on Tuesday night because Wednesday night is hers. She's the VP pick. It kind of makes sense in the context of the vp/text thing. The campaign did something similar when it decided to opt out of federal funds...it e-mailed and texted the supporters first with their explanation spelled out before the talking heads could define it. I'm not 100% sure, but I think that is what they are doing. I really hate Hillary, but the more I think about this, the more it makes sense when it comes to places like Florida and possibly Michigan. It brings some of the enthusiasm back in places where they were in danger of losing old people. The more I think about this, the more I see it. Like it or not...Obama/Clinton '08

"S. Michael said... What are the chances it's K...

2008-08-13T14:47:00.000-04:00

"S. Michael said...

What are the chances it's Kerry for VP?"

Um... zero?