Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: What a Convention Bounce Looks Like

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2009-10-08T05:57:17.542-04:00

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2009-09-15T01:50:52.073-04:00

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キャッシングインプラント

2009-07-22T04:06:08.235-04:00

キャッシング
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2009-03-11T23:11:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T23:11:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-15T21:48:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-09T06:37:00.000-05:00

"Along with Nebraska, Maine is one of two states t...

2008-08-18T12:38:00.000-04:00

"Along with Nebraska, Maine is one of two states to divide its electoral votes proportionally, with the winner of each congressional district getting one EV and the statewide winner getting two."

That is NOT proportional. It is still winner take all, but at the CD level (and two statewide).

Consider the 1992 result in Maine:

Popular vote
38.7% Clinton
30.4% Perot
30.3% Bush

Electoral vote
4 Clinton
0 Perot
0 Bush

100% of electors on 38.7% of votes is not proportional by any definition I would recognize.

With Perot narrowly missing the plurality in one district, the allocation was almost 3-1. Obviously, a proportional allocation would have been 2-1-1, and the winning candidate would never have swept all of them in either state under their current rules.

I'm curious about how the conventions will play ou...

2008-08-15T17:23:00.000-04:00

I'm curious about how the conventions will play out.

The Dem convention will clearly be a much bigger deal but I do acknowledge the possibility that some swing voters won't love the visuals of the football stadium. McCain's will be a much more subdued affair. Will people see that as humble or inferior? Its hard to tell.

I'm also really curious about the effect of putting them right next to each other. I think people might be really sick of politics by the end.

There are a lot of variables that aren't normally there.

I guess we're in uncharted waters.

My own guess is that the two bounces will completely even themselves out and we'll be roughly where we are right now in a couple weeks. Obama will benefit from higher ratings. McCain will benefit from going last. The two benefits will cancel each other out.

Nate- This picture of the post-convention bounce i...

2008-08-15T17:07:00.000-04:00

Nate- This picture of the post-convention bounce is extremely uncertain. Look at the crappy data! If you're going to make the correction you described, you'll also have to temporarily increase the predictive error bars by a few percent. Barring something weird, you should then get about 50% win percent until the second bounce (and its very rough correction) settles.

Let me sum up the 2 campaigns arguments:Obama:The ...

2008-08-15T16:57:00.000-04:00

Let me sum up the 2 campaigns arguments:

Obama:

The last 8 years have been a disaster. Our foreign policy has really weakened us by alienating our traditional allies and getting us caught up in a quagmire in Iraq. Our domestic policy has led to a really bad economy, considerable deficits, a housing crash and all sorts of other problems. My opponent would continue those policies. I wouldn't.

McCain:

Yes, I'd continue those policies, but you are missing the point. He is really popular. Popular like Brittany Spears. Brittany Spears is bad...he must be too. Plus, Taco Bell sells out during his rallies. Do you really think his rallies should be encouraging the sale of tacos? Oh and I heard he used a nickname as a kid. Can you really trust a guy that goes by Barry one day and Barack the next? You might not like me or my policies, but can you really trust this country to somebody that is so associated with tacos, Brittany and nicknames?

Obama is making this campaign about real issues and McCain is making it about one triviality after the next.

I love how people mention "Barry Soetoro" as if it...

2008-08-15T16:44:00.000-04:00

I love how people mention "Barry Soetoro" as if its some sort of revelation and proves something.

Did you that Bill Clinton's actual name is William?

Barry is a common nickname for Barack.

Occasionally when a child's mother remarries, people incorrectly refer to the child by the stepfather's last name. Hence, during his childhood, some people incorrectly called him "Soetoro". When I was a kid, I knew several people this happened to. Sometimes they corrected them. Sometimes they didn't.

What exactly is your point?

Occasionally he used a nickname as a kid and that some people thought he had the same last name as his mother...

And this is relevant, how...

Do you really think that swing voters are looking at this and saying "I agree with him on Iraq and the economy, but he used a nickname as a kid so..."?

This is the problem with Republicans.

They are in such a hurry to attack, attack attack on anything that they occasionally don't stop and think about how stupid they sound.

Oh and his birth certificate is online at http:\\www.fightthesmears.com

Clarkejeffrey I agree with your conclusions on Go...

2008-08-15T16:43:00.000-04:00

Clarkejeffrey

I agree with your conclusions on Gore. There are things that have to be done even for one that hopes for a brokered convention. There is no indication of Gore doing anything in that line.

Mark said "Ben, if Obama picks Harry Reid as his r...

2008-08-15T16:38:00.000-04:00

Mark said "Ben, if Obama picks Harry Reid as his running mate, I'll be watching out for the McCain landslide victory."

Mark,

"What we have here is a failure to communicate."

I would never suggest Obama is picking Reid, as I agree that it would be a suicide pick. When I said a "feint," I meant it as in Reid would not be addressing the convention on Obama's energy plan.

I agree with your sentiment that next week needs to get in gear and arrive.

I believe that Gore thought the nomination would e...

2008-08-15T16:29:00.000-04:00

I believe that Gore thought the nomination would end up in a floor fight at the convention - and that they would turn to him.

I never really bought into this theory. Somebody was going to win and the superdelegates were going to break one way or the other. Maybe if there was an exact tie on popular vote and an exact tie on pledged delegates... The odds of that were astronomical. A close win is still a win and somebody was going to win.

Also, remember when Gore decided not to run. It was early in the season. Campaigns get started almost a year before the first primary. Gore had no way of knowing that the primary would come down to a virtual tie. He had to think to himself in January 2007: Either I want to be president or I don't. Either I think the pain in the ass of politics is worth it or I don't. I think he made his decision and feels happy with it.

I really don't see him making that decision when he had a reasonably good chance of getting elected president and then deciding to be VP.

ClarkJeffry,Given your lucid writing style i must ...

2008-08-15T16:24:00.000-04:00

ClarkJeffry,

Given your lucid writing style i must admit you seem to have a brain. I conlcude you are very young or very naive or both.

How you can rhapsodize about the Clinton Convention is beyond me. it is going to be a disaster. EVERYONE is saying so. Get with the meme, please!

As far Barry Soetero's (I hear that is his real name, btw -- has anyone seen his birth cert?), VEEP pick, I would love it if he picked Gore.

What a set up that would be. Green is the new drab this year, my friends, it is the new drab. No one wants to be assoicated with enviro-wackoism with gas at $4.00/gal still fresh in people's minds.

That ticket would sink like a lead ballon.

I also find some of this Clinton talk by Republica...

2008-08-15T16:22:00.001-04:00

I also find some of this Clinton talk by Republicans funny.

Just for argument sake:

Obama doesn't give her a roll call vote.

Is there any doubt what the Rep reaction would be?

Omigod!! She won 18 million votes. It was a really close race. You can't spare 5 minutes of time for some empty symbolism to acknowledge the great race she ran. Are you that insecure in your victory? What would it cost you? Its obvious that you don't respect Hillary Clinton or women in general.

It would be just like the military hospital thing where McCain prepared two ads and was prepared to criticize him for going if he went and not going if he didn't.

I think this is typical of the politics as usual attitude of the GOP and I think the voters can see through it.

clarke,I believe that Gore thought the nomination ...

2008-08-15T16:22:00.000-04:00

clarke,

I believe that Gore thought the nomination would end up in a floor fight at the convention - and that they would turn to him.

look how close that scenario came to playing out ! Clinton & Obama basically tied & required the Supers to break it.

Man, in his dreams Gore got the deadlock. But Obamas
's team long strategy paid off - just barely enough [we assume at least since Hillary will now be placed in nomination].

Pete & friends think Hill will still steal the nomination. Never gonna happen, but Gore would have loved a floor fight looming to rally around him [IMO].

DCM,I didn't look at it that way. Gore supporting ...

2008-08-15T16:15:00.000-04:00

DCM,

I didn't look at it that way. Gore supporting drilling could be a "Nixon goes to China" kind of a moment.

That is true. I do think that Gore holds a unique ability in being very acceptable to both the left and the center.

I don't think it will happen though. He seems happy in retirement. If he wanted back in the game, I think he would have run for president.

The Clintons have destablized Obama and made him t...

2008-08-15T16:12:00.000-04:00

The Clintons have destablized Obama and made him to look foolish. That it was in fact a brilliantly calculated move by his apotheosis of a campaign is meaningless if the press drums in to the peopless heads that he was pussy whipped into doing it.

As usual, I couldn't disagree with you more. If anything, the Clinton's large presence at the convention will underline the central fact of the primary. He beat her. Its like the Olympics where the silver and bronze medalists are standing on the podium. Yes, they ran a good race. Yes, they deserve credit and a consolation prize. But there is no doubt who the star of the show is. Standing in the middle on a higher level podium just reminds everybody who won the race.

I read some columnist say that what Obama gave them is "unprecedented".

WTF?

Former presidents always speak at their party convention. The runner up always speaks at the convention.

The fact is that all of this is being done to increase the drama and get people to tune in.

I'm all in favor of that because once they do tune in, they'll get a week full of two messages.

Obama won the primary.

Obama is a better candidate than McCain in November.

clarkejeffrey I agree completely with your post on...

2008-08-15T16:11:00.001-04:00

clarkejeffrey

I agree completely with your post on Gore. He is not going to be Veep but would be the safest choice. Obama will probably go long instead.

Still IF Obama on energy & economy needs to do a compromise or flip, then who better than Gore to assist him ? It would provide the best cover IF the enviro-guy is the front man on it [IMO].

I think the safe pro's would greatly outweigh the cons in the dash to the election at least.

As for governing, well Obama could delegate much to Gore - who but the wingnuts would object ?

I was once told you need an 11th grade education t...

2008-08-15T16:11:00.000-04:00

I was once told you need an 11th grade education to understand my writing. You, DCM, have apaprently never graduated HS and are a very dense person.

Now get the hell offa my lawn!

PETE actually said:"And that, my friends, is what ...

2008-08-15T16:06:00.000-04:00

PETE actually said:

"And that, my friends, is what they are doing. They are doing it, my friends and it is working."

'my friends' we have John McCain himself apparently... I can see his grin now.

that explains his nonsense posts !

Al Gore would be a really interesting choice. I d...

2008-08-15T16:04:00.001-04:00

Al Gore would be a really interesting choice. I don't think he wants it, but what do I know.

He would remind people of the Clinton administration, without making it look like he is pandering to Bill and Hillary personally.

He'd also remind people of the 2000election and George W Bush. I'm convinced that quite a few people that voted for Bush feel they made a mistake, while the Gore voters are still Gore voters.

Gore also has the experience without the looming shadow.

For all the talk of the future, people often look to the past when voting and reminding people of the differences between the Clinton and Bush administrations is a good thing.

The problem with Gore:

Drilling.

Obama needs to compromise and give in. Its a flipflop but its not that big a deal. For one thing, McCain changed recently. For another, the American people changed recently. I think the typical swing voter realizes the tradeoffs and says "I wouldn't want drilling when gas is $1.50 a gallon but I need it at $4". They can understand the flexibility both candidates have on the issue.

However, Gore is now known primarily for the environment. He would look really strange agreeing to drilling and we'd open ourselves up to a lot of unnecessary criticism if he signed on to an Obama drilling plan.

PETE the PARROT - ...did you actually say somethin...

2008-08-15T16:04:00.000-04:00

PETE the PARROT - ...

did you actually say something in all that screeching noise you made ???