Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Coleman Not in Giving Mood on Absentees

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2009-10-02T04:42:19.020-04:00

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2009-04-16T01:56:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-07T04:06:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-16T05:01:00.000-05:00

Utterly mystifying.I get that the need for recount...

2008-12-30T15:02:00.000-05:00

Utterly mystifying.
I get that the need for recounts is rare. and that the technical rules for what gets counted and what not are usually irrelevant.

But I also understand that the MN rules/laws are more precise and thorough than most other states'.

Someone, somewhere should be drafting the complete rules so that all states can adopt something at least coherent and complete. And I'm glad this time it's not FL nor OH and not the Presidential race.

In part, what appears to be going on is that Minne...

2008-12-30T12:02:00.000-05:00

In part, what appears to be going on is that Minnesota statutes and case law allows some of the issues which would otherwise belong in the post-certification election contest to be moved forward into the recount.

While the Court could have left it up to the local canvassing board to correct any errors, it opted instead to use a statute authorizing it to correct errors. By issuing its order, the Court got around local canvassing board being able to ignore a "request" to reconsider absentee ballots but created a different problem -- giving both campaigns a veto over the absentee ballots.

From the reports, it seems like the meetings around the states are part of the procedure agreed to by the counties and the campaigns. In theory, any campaign objecting to consideration of an absentee ballot will have to publicly explain their position. I guess the hope was that the bad pr from being unreasonable would force them to use a uniform and defensible standard. (I think everyone forgot that it will be six years until the next election and thus bad pr means nothing.)

If things break down completely, the parties could theoretically go back to the Minnesota Supremes and ask for a modification of the order (e.g. appoint a special master to resolve any disputes or authorize the canvassing board to resolve disputes).

The Minnesota Board and SOS met this morning and m...

2008-12-30T11:54:00.000-05:00

The Minnesota Board and SOS met this morning and made it official. The recount with the challenges awarded has Franken with a 50 vote lead. YEAH!!
Now it is up to counting of absentees.

According to the original decision of the MNSC, bo...

2008-12-30T10:07:00.000-05:00

According to the original decision of the MNSC, both sides had to agree as to procedure for counting the absentee ballots. So it was clear that Coleman would be unable to add more rejected absentee ballots to be counted, absent assent from Franken. Now, the question will be one of reduction, i.e., how much cherry-picking of the 1350 wrongly rejected absentee ballots both sides will engage in. I agree that Franken should take an "all-or-nothing" approach, since he currently leads. If Coleman's maneuvering results in "nothing" being counted, then the contest phase (post-certification) is the right time to count any absentee ballots. If events go in that direction, the courts should be willing to adjudicate the counting of absentee ballots during the contest phase, if necessary.

Here's clarification on a number of issues (via Mi...

2008-12-30T09:28:00.000-05:00

Here's clarification on a number of issues (via Minnesota Public Broadcasting) on a few things:
1. Coleman can't add additional absentee ballots.
2. The local officials are finalizing the list of wrongly rejected absentee ballots.

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/12/29/recount_update/

" Secretary of State Mark Ritchie said, under the procedure agreed to by both campaigns and approved by the Minnesota Supreme Court, any ballots beyond those identified by local officials could be considered only if both campaigns agreed to include them by yesterday afternoon.

Ritchie said because that didn't happen, only those roughly 1,350 rejected absentees currently on the table can be the subject of discussion as to whether they should be sent to his office, opened and added to the recount tally. Richie said there are 12 meetings scheduled around the state on Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday.

"At those meetings the representatives of both campaigns and the local election officials will be finalizing the list of the wrongly-rejected absentee ballots that will be forwarded to our office here in St. Paul by Friday," Richie said.

Under the process, Ritchie's office must count the wrongly-rejected absentees by Sunday. He said both campaigns will then have a chance early next week to challenge any ballot decisions his office makes before the State Canvassing Board.

"I'm guessing it will take both Monday and Tuesday to get through all of the challenges and all of the little details that still remain," Richie said. "But if we have to go past January sixth we're prepared to do that but I also believe we are near the end of this phase of the process."

Thanks - that actually clears things up, if it's p...

2008-12-30T04:45:00.000-05:00

Thanks - that actually clears things up, if it's possible to use the word "clear" with respect to such a muddled mess. I'm an attorney and I work in elections in Michigan, and I hope we'd never do anything like this.

I think there's only one feasible course for Franken, which is to object to ALL ballots that have been identified as incorrectly rejected, and then sue or offer to join a suit to have them ALL counted. I'm sure there's some reason under Minnesota law that won't work either.

Beyond following precedent, a court really needs to pay attention to the situation into which it's being drawn. Even if they only resolve the specific dispute that's before them - which of course is a principal maxim - it wouldn't have hurt anything to sketch out the process envisioned if the parties fail to agree.

Again, I'm a stranger to Minnesota law and procedure, but it seems clear to me that when this is all over, there won't be a stack of perfectly validly cast absentee ballots which remain uncounted because the courts couldn't figure out how to cut through their own red tape. For one thing, such a result would suggest that an election official can improperly reject ballots without any effective forum for review of that action. If Gore v. Bush meant anything - which it didn't - that would seem proscribed. One way or another, the ballots are eventually going to be reviewed and counted.

@ Mark Grebner So during the meetings the two camp...

2008-12-30T02:53:00.000-05:00

@ Mark Grebner
So during the meetings the two campaigns will try to work out whcih ballots should be counted. If the can't agree then the ballot isn't counted and a law suit or election contest can be filed to try and get the ballot counted after the result has been certified.
The MNSC relied on case law (the case has been refered to as Anderson)and interpreted it to mean that a clear error, the term used in Anderson, only occurs when both parties agree that an error has occured.
I know the requirement that both campaigns agree seems really stupid, but it is what happens when cpurts only go as far as neccesary to resolve the problem and then later cases are decided based on that limited decision. The court could have said clearly the law was not followed and the counties should go back and make sure that the law was properly complied with. It would have gone beyond the previous case law, but is clearly an acceptable decision. The Coleman campaign would then be able to challenge the inclusion in an election contest.

Could very well be a circus tomorrow at those meet...

2008-12-30T02:52:00.000-05:00

Could very well be a circus tomorrow at those meetings, didn't need to be.

I wonder if Tremble can be arrested tomorrow for obstructing justice as they try to low ball the ballots.

~ Latte

One has to have to hope and dreams.

-taconite12

I'm with Mark.I have no concept as to what these m...

2008-12-30T02:35:00.000-05:00

I'm with Mark.

I have no concept as to what these meetings are all about? It all seems rather pointless to me if the campaign jostling is what really has to be resolved.

What is the actual purpose of these meetings? Do they even have any real validity or authority if BOTH campaigns aren't on board?

Thanks for the schedule, but what I meant to ask w...

2008-12-30T02:19:00.000-05:00

Thanks for the schedule, but what I meant to ask was: what is the agenda for these bodies exactly? Will they just sit and implore the two sides to "work something out, please?" Or is there some sort of adjudicatory function? Are they going to take up each ballot to whose inclusion there has been an objection, and then rule on the ballot's validity?

I'm not from Minnesota, so please forgive my failing to understand the local culture. But at some point, doesn't some neutral entity have to make a decision about whose votes to count? Is this search for cooperation between diametrically opposed parties a recurrent theme in Minnesota elections? If it is, how does anything ever end?

Harry Reid should announce that the Senate won't r...

2008-12-30T01:35:00.000-05:00

Harry Reid should announce that the Senate won't recognize Coleman as the winner unless he prevails on an inclusive count of the absentees. Let Norm know that the Senate won't ratify his cherry picking.

@ Mark Grebner asked about the Star Tribune's refe...

2008-12-30T00:58:00.000-05:00

@ Mark Grebner asked about the Star Tribune's reference to "a series of regional meetings ... scheduled to begin Tuesday for local election officials to sift through those rejected absentee ballots over which there is a lingering dispute."

A full listing for these dozen or so meetings is at http://tinyurl.com/9nthxz.

Franken will be sworn in when the Senate convenes ...

2008-12-30T00:43:00.000-05:00

Franken will be sworn in when the Senate convenes on 1/6.

@green_libertarian,a can of worms here, to be sure...

2008-12-30T00:33:00.000-05:00

@green_libertarian,
a can of worms here, to be sure. I will spare you my hard drive head breaking off and scouring the sectors story. Suffice it to say, that Vista shuts off and reboots itself whenever it feels like :(.

We should have a pool here on whether MN SC will have to intervene yet again prior to the certification. At the same time, imho, Coleman is running out of obfuscating tactics prior to the certification. And obfuscation is all he has left.

~ Latte

When they certify Franken as the winner, he should...

2008-12-30T00:29:00.000-05:00

When they certify Franken as the winner, he should ask Coleman to concede to save the state more money. ;)

If Franken were to block all pre-certification cou...

2008-12-30T00:18:00.000-05:00

If Franken were to block all pre-certification counting of the absentee ballots, this would force the SoS to certify the count with him in the lead by 47 votes. Franken could then contest any result favoring Coleman in the contest phase by by contesting the result based upon not counting the absentee ballots. Such a contest would land directly in the MNSC's lap, which could be problematic. Any such contest, however, could be accompanied by the history of Coleman's maneuvers during the attempt to count the absentee ballots in the pre-certification phase. Franken could be more successful in getting the absentee ballots equitably counted during the contest phase than during the current, pre-certification phase.

As others have noted, Coleman's behavior was exac...

2008-12-30T00:02:00.000-05:00

As others have noted, Coleman's behavior was exactly as we predicted, not following the rosy picture Nate and others hoped for. If Franken already had a big enough led to withstand any challenges re possible double-counting, there would be no problem, but he may not.

Coleman is obviously planning to try to game the meetings tomorrow, and no there is nothing about those meetings to stop him.

Here's the question: was the MNSC deliberately malicious in setting this up for Coleman, or were they just morons? I guess we'll soon find out.

Oh, and yeah, about 20% of the time when I try to ...

2008-12-29T23:49:00.000-05:00

Oh, and yeah, about 20% of the time when I try to post on the Strib's site, it crashes Firefox. Very frustrating.

-Latte, sorry to hear about the PC problems. As a...

2008-12-29T23:46:00.000-05:00

-Latte, sorry to hear about the PC problems. As a once computer tech, I have to ask, have you shut it off and restarted?
j/k
:)

I've not been able to keep up on the troll infested STrib blogs... plus it's confusing as the STrib changes the headlines, or they don't match in various places...

Altho I haven't seen his evidence, Coleman's digging into the various counties purportedly validly rejected piles doesn't surprise me, and as I said, I'm sure Franken's people have done the same thing, but aren't playing that card, yet.

Opus 132: for sure it will happen, there will be ...

2008-12-29T23:44:00.000-05:00

Opus 132: for sure it will happen, there will be challenges. But the Canvassing Board does the counting, I think, and will adjudicate challenges as they go along.