情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-02-11T22:41:00.000-05:00

Just looking briefly at the numbers, but it looks ...

2008-05-20T20:41:17.192-04:00

Just looking briefly at the numbers, but it looks like Obama may not meet the 15% threshold in CD-5

Before all the numbers apepar I'm in with Clinton ...

2008-05-20T19:09:45.857-04:00

Before all the numbers apepar I'm in with Clinton around 60. Those eastern spots aren't going to give Obama any respect. Because of his policies on the economy, right?

jp, I am certainly not Clinton biased, for I am an...

2008-05-20T14:17:37.648-04:00

jp, I am certainly not Clinton biased, for I am an Obama supporter.

Here are so many predictions posted, maybe you think of some wrong ones?

I did not post a West Virginia Prediction ( I was away the last 6 days before the primary ), my Indiana prediction of Obama +3,8 was 4,9 points off (but Obama biased, if any), my North Carolina prediction of Obama +14,6 was 0,2 points off and my Pennsylvania prediction of Clinton +9,6% was 0,3% off.

So I think my NC prediction is my best of late, and my IN prediction was with a difference of 5 points the worst I predicted.
I think that will change today in at least one of the states, but who knows.

Any chance you'll do a county by county prediction...

2008-05-20T14:15:30.459-04:00

Any chance you'll do a county by county prediction for either KY or OR? I realize that presents lots of room for error in any one county, but it was a fantastic aid for election night scorekeeping. Most of us have no way of knowing what the reults from any one county "should" look like and whether the return is good or bad news for our candidate.. Your projections gave me a pretty good rough guide.

Just to let you know, Rasmus, I think that that Or...

2008-05-20T13:58:16.784-04:00

Just to let you know, Rasmus, I think that that Oregon prediction is probably your best of late, but that isn't saying much. I think that your predictions have become Clinton biased.

My Predictions:
KY Clinton by 22,8
OR Obama by 15,7

Just to let you know, Rasmus, I think that that Or...

2008-05-20T13:58:14.658-04:00

Anyone wants to hear my KY and OR predictions?KY C...

2008-05-20T12:40:36.042-04:00

Anyone wants to hear my KY and OR predictions?
KY Clinton by 30,3%
OR Obama by 12,2%

PS: You need to take a look at the Win %- in some states it´s not the Win% (relative), but the absolute number in the moment.

Hope that the 6%-7% Edwards voters and 5% uncommit...

2008-05-20T12:27:34.265-04:00

Hope that the 6%-7% Edwards voters and 5% uncommitted voters keep the margin within 20-25 pts and also that overall turnout is low to blunt the Clinton so-called (bogus) 'popular-vote' argument.

In Oregon, I'd love to see 80% turnout, but it doesn't look like the numbers support it thus far.

@paul -I thought the same thing in early January f...

2008-05-20T12:14:11.735-04:00

@paul -

I thought the same thing in early January for Iowa - that students weren't back to school yet from Winter Break. Yet, Obama won Iowa. So, I wouldn't underestimate the college vote.

The one thing that differs about Kentucky compared...

2008-05-20T11:45:43.346-04:00

The one thing that differs about Kentucky compared to West Virginia is that it shares a border with southern Illinois. It wouldn't surprise me if KY1 does a bit better for Obama than expected due to spillover effects from positive media coverage of Obama from 2004-present. Paducah borders Illinois and we get a reasonable amount of Obama and Illinois coverage. Sort of like what happened in Indiana. I think Obama has appeared to blow off the state in the national media, but in reality will do a bit better because of home state borders, and impressive state organization (he has had offices, ads, etc. there for months now).

Joe,I do see that 1.6 million number now that I go...

2008-05-20T11:21:55.665-04:00

Joe,

I do see that 1.6 million number now that I googled it. On the other hand, Oregon has 943,000 Kerry voters to Kentucky's 713,000.

If registration numbers were standardized across different states, I would use those in some way -- and undoubtedly would have superior projections to show for it. Unfortunately they are not.

Perhaps the best comparison point is turnout in the 2004 primaries. Oregon had 369,000 voters to Kentucky 230,000.

No, it was a demographic model 10:02 AM. He's bee...

2008-05-20T11:15:36.671-04:00

No, it was a demographic model 10:02 AM. He's been pretty dead on using the demographic model (except Indiana was a very poor prediction):

http://race42008.com/2008/04/01/no-really-hillary-has-a-decent-shot/
http://race42008.com/2008/04/22/res-ipsa-loquitor/

538/poblano,Are you sure about the registered Dems...

2008-05-20T11:13:13.433-04:00

538/poblano,

Are you sure about the registered Dems #? I read that Kentucky had 1.6 million registered Dems while Oregon had 800,000.

Houston - did those account for both Edwards and U...

2008-05-20T11:02:35.551-04:00

Houston - did those account for both Edwards and Uncmommitted appearing on the ballot? Add those to Clinton's sum and you get the margin you're predicting.

But they aren't for Clinton.

Dude, I love your analysis and all, but take a loo...

2008-05-20T10:53:04.309-04:00

Dude, I love your analysis and all, but take a look at the map Sean Oxendine from race42008 made a month or two ago and combine it with his and Jay Cost's analysis. There's no way Clinton wins Kentucky by less than 25 (and I'd bet on about 32% or so). However, if you're right about this and everyone else is wrong, you'll get pretty serious credibility.

Btw, hedgehog report had the Survey USA veep polls for New Mexico you were waiting for. Don't know if you grabbed them yet or not. How will those figure into your calculations?

Say, Poblano, what you may want to do is re-term y...

2008-05-20T10:52:26.806-04:00

Say, Poblano, what you may want to do is re-term your "predictions" to "projections." "Prediction" implies that it's ultimately your guess as to what the outcome is, taking into account whatever factors seem relevant.

"Projections" implies that it's a mathematical model and as such, is subject to unexpected occurrences that may not be reflected in the data.

I also wanted to make a comment about the RSS feed...

2008-05-20T10:51:47.834-04:00

I also wanted to make a comment about the RSS feed.

I really think 19% is wishful thinking. I say 30%, using the model I recently pulled out of my rectum. :)

Won't most of those college students have gone hom...

2008-05-20T10:46:52.321-04:00

Won't most of those college students have gone home by now? I'd expect the end of the academic calendar to depress student turnout.

If Obama can actually win Oregon by more popular v...

2008-05-20T10:37:52.627-04:00

If Obama can actually win Oregon by more popular votes than Clinton wins Kentucky by, and therefore actually accumulate more votes today than Hillary, he should be in good shape.

It's nice to see the "Uncommitted" option working against Clinton for a change!

Clinton will win Kentucky by 20-30 points in popul...

2008-05-20T10:37:38.888-04:00

Clinton will win Kentucky by 20-30 points in popular votes and Obama to win Oregon by 10-20 points in popular votes.

At the end of the day, Clinton will grab a couple more pledged delegates than Obama.

just wanted to say there seems to be a problem wit...

2008-05-20T10:36:18.922-04:00

just wanted to say there seems to be a problem with the RSS feed. Love the blog!

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Kentucky Projection: Clinton by 19

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

Just looking briefly at the numbers, but it looks ...

Before all the numbers apepar I'm in with Clinton ...

jp, I am certainly not Clinton biased, for I am an...

Any chance you'll do a county by county prediction...

Just to let you know, Rasmus, I think that that Or...

Just to let you know, Rasmus, I think that that Or...

Anyone wants to hear my KY and OR predictions?KY C...

Hope that the 6%-7% Edwards voters and 5% uncommit...

@paul -I thought the same thing in early January f...

The one thing that differs about Kentucky compared...

Joe,I do see that 1.6 million number now that I go...

No, it was a demographic model 10:02 AM. He's bee...

538/poblano,Are you sure about the registered Dems...

Houston - did those account for both Edwards and U...

Dude, I love your analysis and all, but take a loo...

Say, Poblano, what you may want to do is re-term y...

I also wanted to make a comment about the RSS feed...

Won't most of those college students have gone hom...

If Obama can actually win Oregon by more popular v...

Clinton will win Kentucky by 20-30 points in popul...

just wanted to say there seems to be a problem wit...