Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 6/18

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2009-10-09T03:06:32.788-04:00

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2009-03-11T05:28:00.001-04:00

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2009-02-12T22:29:00.000-05:00

Um, as for the unity bounce, have you guys seen Sc...

2008-06-19T16:29:00.000-04:00

Um, as for the unity bounce, have you guys seen Scott Rasmussen's latest numbers on Florida and Ohio? They're quite different from what Quinnipiac released and I don't think we have a really compelling reason to believe Q.

But I tend to believe that people like to vote for...

2008-06-19T07:39:00.000-04:00

But I tend to believe that people like to vote for the winner, so if McCain falls early, it'll help dems not hurt them.

Apparently you "tend to believe" rather ridiculous things based on no fact or reason.

My recollection is that after the dust up in 1980 ...

2008-06-19T07:28:00.000-04:00

My recollection is that after the dust up in 1980 over early calls of states for Reagan, Congress passed legislation to prohibit calling any states until the polls close in all the West Coast states.

Perhaps if you knew anything about the founding principles and laws of the country you live in, you wouldn't "recollect" such absurd things.

Any analysis that turns Florida blue based on a si...

2008-06-19T07:23:00.000-04:00

Any analysis that turns Florida blue based on a single poll and declares McCain is doomed based on this "watershed" event is laughably partisan. If the analyst had combined his statistical skills with a passion for McCain instead of Obama, I have no doubt this site would be showing Florida in solid red and McCain with 300 EV.

That's because you're a laughably partisan and dishonest fool. Your mischaracterizations and denials won't make your candidate any better off.

What the networkds do is not project a state until...

2008-06-19T07:16:00.000-04:00

What the networkds do is not project a state until all the polls have lcosed in that state. (A productof the 2000 debacle in Florida).

What's their position on a cousin of a candidate making the call?

Here's the thing: I've been burned before.Welcome ...

2008-06-19T07:08:00.000-04:00

Here's the thing: I've been burned before.

Welcome to life.

I would prefer a system that I can be happily surprised was too low over a system that I will be disappointed was too high.

How bizarre. What I would prefer is the best, most accurate information available, but you want the data to be shaped according to the psychology of your expectations. Have you ever considered the possibility that you're rather self-centered and a bit dim?

With respect to the issue of the impact of early b...

2008-06-19T01:11:00.000-04:00

With respect to the issue of the impact of early broadcast of projections, I have the following anecdotal information, based on the 1980 election. I was managing a campaign in a western state, and the projections (and Carter's concession) came before the closing of the polls. Our own poll, taken about 3 weeks before the election, projected a 60-40 margin for the incumbent (my candidate). In the then leading public poll, taken roughly 10 days before the election, we had a 57-43lead. The absentee ballots, when tablulated, had us down 53-47, and the average gap between absentee and regular balloting was about 10%. In the end, we lost 51-49. A quick and dirty post-election analysis showed a significant correlation between change in turn-out from four years earlier and the the "republicanness" of precincts. A Republican friend of mine, who upset an incumbent Democratic State Senator by 500 votes, told me that he estimated, by looking at turnout, that the early projections cost his opponent almost 700 votes.

BTW, there is no law prohibiting projections before all polls have closed - it was talked about but would clearly have been unconstitutional. What the networkds do is not project a state until all the polls have lcosed in that state. (A productof the 2000 debacle in Florida).

In the absence of a Democratic landslide, it is likely (but not certain) that it the vote count will not permit a projection until the polls in California are about to close. Look how long it took to count the votes in Virginia last year in the Webb Senate race.

If Obama is up enough in Virginia that the state can be called relatively early, then a "premature" projection won't make any difference.

To anonymous at 10:53, it's bovious that you eithe...

2008-06-19T00:52:00.000-04:00

To anonymous at 10:53, it's bovious that you either didn't read the methodological explanations or, if you did so, failed to understand them.

The analysis did not declare McCain "doomed." (Although some posters may have) The model still shows a 25% chance for him to win. It is also clear that changes in public attitudes could swing things back in his direction, and this is made clear in the the explanations. As Bob Dylan sang, "Don't criticize what you can't understand."

Any analysis that turns Florida blue based on a si...

2008-06-18T23:53:00.000-04:00

HHliberal wrote: "What's the 538 dependent variabl...

2008-06-18T22:58:00.000-04:00

HHliberal wrote: "What's the 538 dependent variable? I believe the dependent variable in the regression equation is just the percentage margin for Obama (+values showing as +Obama, - values showing as +McCain)."

Yes, that's pretty obvious, but what's not clear is what his unit of analysis is and what data he uses for this purpose? All state polls, aggregated (combined, weighted) state polls, the latest state polls, or what?

Anon & Another Mike - as to calling the election b...

2008-06-18T19:15:00.000-04:00

Anon & Another Mike - as to calling the election before polls close on the West Coast. My recollection is that after the dust up in 1980 over early calls of states for Reagan, Congress passed legislation to prohibit calling any states until the polls close in all the West Coast states. So unless you find something current from an authoritative source that says otherwise, don't worry about projected winners in East Coast states affecting the voting behavior of voters on the West Coast.

Juris & Another Mike - as to the 538 regression. I'm another lay person like the two of you, but my understanding is different.

What's in the 538 regression as independent variables?
The factors listed in the FAQ, with a few adjustments. Nate explained in a post at some point which of the factors he includes now as independent variables, but that explanation has not yet made it into a revised FAQ explanation.

What's the 538 dependent variable?
I believe the dependent variable in the regression equation is just the percentage margin for Obama (+values showing as +Obama, - values showing as +McCain).

How is the national trend (plotted on the Supertracker graph) factored in?
If I understood Nate's explanation correctly, he computes a time adjustment factor (or factors) for each state by comparing the changes in voter preference in polls by the same pollster in that state.
Then he compares the state changes over time to the national trend changes over the same time period or periods as the changes computed for that state.
(That is, the Supertracker graph values for the dates when the two polls were taken in that state.)
I'm not sure that I understand how Nate uses the time lags to adjust in each state for the national trends. My brain was hurting too much by the time I got that far! But I do recall that Nate introduced the individual state adjustments to respond to comments on an earlier model: many of those comments asked him to find a rigorous way to adjust for the national trend by a unique per cent in each state rather than adjusting every state's figures by the same amount.

Overall, I think Nate computes a unique time/change factor for each state; then adjusts the margins in each poll in a state by the time lag factor for that state (also using the weights for each poll that are shown in the Poll Detail on the right of the webpage); then averages the poll margins (as adjusted for the time/change factor(s) for that state) with the result of the 538 regression. The average so computed becomes the margin shown as the "Projection" as the last colored line for each state.

Of the independent variables for the 538 regression, only two of the "political" factors appear to have any potential for fluctuating:
$_Obama - fundraising in the state compared to Kerry may change to a larger or smaller ratio each time that there is a campaign $ reporting date for the FEC. Same for $_McCain - comparing his fundraising to Bush's.
The values for each of the other independent variables appear to be defined by 2004 exit poll numbers, 2000 census data, or perhaps some updated census estimate.

Hope I've (1) got the explanation basically right and (2) explained the concepts clearly enough for all or most of the lay readers to understand. I'd guess one of the statistical wonks will correct me if I'm wrong.

Electoral vote distribution, and the graph.That sp...

2008-06-18T18:26:00.000-04:00

Electoral vote distribution, and the graph.

That spike at the right end is essentially the right-hand "tail" all bunched up in the case of a popvote swing to something like 10% or more. I get that.

But one effect that's having is that the mean EV, 333.9, is now significantly different from the median and mode EV's, which are about 360 and 390 respectively. In other words, since the distribution is no longer normal, the mean is no longer the best measure of central tendancy.

Therefore, I'd like to suggest that you begin to use both mean and median, or better yet, median only, as the central tendancy measure in the piecharts, and drop the mean.

Interesting. A lot of people claimed they'd vote ...

2008-06-18T18:17:00.000-04:00

Interesting. A lot of people claimed they'd vote for McCain if Clinton weren't the nominee, but 1/2 of them are voting Democrat. It's probably similar to the polls of the Obama supporters claiming they won't choose Obama any more if Clinton is VP. They'll mostly still choose Obama if it is Obama-Clinton.

Thanks for the clarification on the state colors, ...

2008-06-18T17:58:00.000-04:00

Thanks for the clarification on the state colors, Another Mike. Makes sense now.

Another Mike said... Anonymous said..."As a practi...

2008-06-18T17:24:00.000-04:00

Another Mike said...
Anonymous said...

"As a practical matter, it would be super-helpful to return to this theme of whether the election could be called before the polls close on the West Coast closer to the actual day, so that those who are trying to get Dems elected downticket in those states can plan for it."

I've always been curious about this issue: if an election looks to be a blowout based on polling or because it's called early, who benefits? Do more of the apparent winner's voters stay home, more of the apparent loser's, or proportionately equal numbers? In other words, does it change either candidate's share of the vote or just depress turnout without making any difference in the margin of victory?

I have heard, though never with much evidence, that the early calling of the 1980 election (combined with Carter's early concession) lead to Dems sitting home and the GOP picking up a lot of the senate seats out West. Would they have gotten them in a clsoe election? Remains to be seen?

But I tend to believe that people like to vote for the winner, so if McCain falls early, it'll help dems not hurt them.

Another Mike: You're right. My statement about th...

2008-06-18T15:43:00.000-04:00

Another Mike: You're right. My statement about the "538 regression" not using polling applies to the variables on the right side of the equation (the predictor variables -- which are demographic and historic vote outcome variables), not the dependent variable in the regression equation. If, as you note, the 538 regression changes over time, then I think the dependent variable in the 538 regression must be the (adjusted) state polls. The regression coefficients are then used to derive the 538 regression prediction for each state, based on the particular configuration of values on the predictor variables in that state.

If somebody sees this differently, please chime in. The FAQ still refers to Clinton and Obama and hasn't been updated; even there, Nate did not explicitly mention what the dependent variable is nor how it would be updated.

PPP has Obama up 2 in virginia. SUSA has him up 9 ...

2008-06-18T14:59:00.000-04:00

PPP has Obama up 2 in virginia. SUSA has him up 9 in Wisconsin.

Imperfections in the bell curve are due to the fac...

2008-06-18T14:46:00.000-04:00

Imperfections in the bell curve are due to the fact that there's an imposed floor and ceiling on the curve (i.e. you can't go lower than 0, higher than 538). That's why you get the bump at the extremes, because all the results that would show either candidate stronger than just being able to eke out that 50th state get clumped at the end. Plateaus and the sort are probably due to the fact that the data is not continuous (i.e. states are won in increments of 3 or more EVs, not by fractional number amounts like would be seen with the popular vote). Thus, you either win a state or lose it, and the EV outcome shifts in those chunks.

If you think the No Quarter crowd is nutzo, you sh...

2008-06-18T14:41:00.000-04:00

If you think the No Quarter crowd is nutzo, you should take a look at the Hillaryis44 bunch sometime. Lots of overlap between them, but I'd say the latter is even crazier than the former.

BTW, for those skeptical of Nate's Florida projection, there's another poll out today for Florida: Obama 49 - McCain 44. It is, however, from Nate's good friend Bennett, so take it for whatever it's worth. ARG is also out with a NH poll showing more good news: Obama 51 McCain 39. http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/