Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: The Case for Hillary

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2009-02-16T22:51:00.000-05:00

The GOP base is already motivated. GOP's are part...

2008-08-22T08:38:00.000-04:00

The GOP base is already motivated. GOP's are party first nation second and there is no way any of them sit out. Look at Dobson and Limbaugh, they pretend to not like McSame but do you think they are going to vote for Obama or not vote?

The election is going to be decided by Colorado, w...

2008-08-22T08:35:00.000-04:00

The election is going to be decided by Colorado, who wins there will be prez.
Obama should pick Richardson or better yet Salazar.

Hillary's negatives would have great effect in the...

2008-08-22T03:50:00.000-04:00

Hillary's negatives would have great effect in the states that are too red to ever go for Obama, and also in the states that are so blue that their beleagered conservative minorities have always enjoyed Clinton-hatred as a consoling outlet for expressing collective frustration. Meanwhile, HRC's positive popularity cold waxes every other politician in either party in the Ohios and Floridas of the country.

With Clinton, on the other hand, voters naturally ...

2008-08-22T01:21:00.000-04:00

With Clinton, on the other hand, voters naturally want to come to her defense -- and overzealous attempts to whip the Republican base into a frenzy will be counteracted with outrage from significant numbers of older and working-class women.

Just exactly WHO wants to come to her defense?

YOu all have lost your natural mind.

We get the news that McCain will probably pick ROMNEY, which would further demoralize the GOP Base - let's cut to the chase: the Evangelicals ain't having NO PARTS of The Mormon.

And Obama would pick the ONE person that could MOTIVATE THE GOP BASE.

You all have lost it.

He's not a Muslim as far as I know.

2008-08-21T23:27:00.000-04:00

He's not a Muslim as far as I know.

The "Clinton = fired-up Republicans" meme was run ...

2008-08-21T19:25:00.000-04:00

The "Clinton = fired-up Republicans" meme was run into the ground during the primaries. In spite of the years and years and volumes upon volumes of trash hurled at the Clintons, Democratic strategists were completely convinced some vast Republican conspiracy was still holding onto some bit of dirt they were just dying to use at just the right moment.

When it came down to it, Republicans turned out to vote in Democratic primaries for Hillary. Democratic pundits, who are so famously poor at electoral strategy, claimed that they were voting for a weaker candidate against McCain. Exit polls showed they were voting simply because they really, really didn't like Obama. Clinton they could stomach. State-by-state polls at the same time gave Clinton a 60 elector advantage over Obama.

Innuendo, no matter how often it is repeated, does not make for a persuasive argument. Clinton and Obama may not have the basis of a working relationship, and maybe she would hurt his "brand." But no matter how many times the Nader 2000, Dean 2004 crowd denies it, a lot of people out there really are more interested in the things Hillary has to offer than marketing.

I can't understand why HRC is such a great pick. ...

2008-08-21T18:12:00.000-04:00

I can't understand why HRC is such a great pick. She ran one of the worst run campaigns of modern times. She clearly had the path to the nomination and she blew it. Additionally she has a husband that is uncontrollable and the direct opposite of Obama's brand. Adding the Clintons would be a disaster.

Scott919:A couple of points:(1) China doesn't have...

2008-08-21T16:55:00.000-04:00

Scott919:

A couple of points:

(1) China doesn't have to stop using dollars for foreign exchange in the near term to adversely impact our standard of living and financial independence. As an non-economist (and therefore, admittedly inexpert about the details), it strikes me that there are various intermediate steps China and other foreign investors in U.S. bonds/treasuries could take that would be harmful:

(a) They could could demand higher interest to prop up the U.S. Treasury unless certain policies were put into effect. Much as has been true of IMF Adjustment plans, this could result in policies that harm the (American) people.

(b) Alternatively, it could just create a run-up on interest rates and harm the American economy that way. (Inflation, foreclosures, bankruptcies.)

(2) It is hard to imagine a U.S. President who's so stupid that s/he'd launch a military attack on China. Iraq was attacked precisely BECAUSE they had no nukes. China has nukes and a huge military. A war with China, especially in several years, when their engineers have produced better weapons systems, would be suicidal.

PS PS - I'v had personal run ins professionally wi...

2008-08-21T16:20:00.000-04:00

PS PS - I'v had personal run ins professionally with Richardson's sleazy New Mexico government. Its as bad as Arkansas under the Rose Law Firm and Billy. So Richardson is toast. Selebius has been excommunicated by her bishop over radical abortion positions. Kaine is the last one standing.

PS Bayh who sits on Senate Banking (arguably the m...

2008-08-21T16:15:00.000-04:00

PS Bayh who sits on Senate Banking (arguably the most corrupt institution in the nation) is poison too.

The October surprise of 2008 isn;t going to come f...

2008-08-21T16:13:00.000-04:00

The October surprise of 2008 isn;t going to come from any candidate ... it will be the nationalization and $600 billion bailout of fannie mae and freddie mac. These two whores are the ultimate in DC sleaze and corruption and why all of us (Dems, Indies, Repubs) should be in the streets in DC demanding all their heads. On balance McCain is more exposed than Obama when these two cesspools of corruption implode. Hillary (a favorite dumping ground of fannie and freddie $) tips the scale to even.

The chief reason I'm even supporting Obama is beca...

2008-08-21T16:01:00.000-04:00

The chief reason I'm even supporting Obama is because he is not Clinton. Otherwise I'd be supporting the republican except I've had it with Bush.

This is why we are in the trouble we're in -- so many Americans are utterly clueless about politics and about the nature of the political parties.

I see FILISTRO is still stirring the pot. I guess...

2008-08-21T15:46:00.000-04:00

I see FILISTRO is still stirring the pot. I guess tommorrow McCain will have a tony resko as out.

I don't thing Odumbo wants to go down this road; Nobody has ever won the Presidency by taking the populist route.

How many of us have had a convicted felon buy property next door and then sell it to you at half the cost so your house value rises. I'm waiting.

Of course all of this happened while Odumbo and his bitchy wife were attending meeting with a terrorist. Now, how many people out there have had the lot next door bought by a convicted felon, sold back to you at a reduced cost, all while eating arugula and attending a meeting with a terrorist. I know I haven't.

I guess I am one of those people who clings to his bible becasue I don't have a friend who is a felon and who will buy the lot next door. Oh well.

The latest Fox News poll has been released with Ob...

2008-08-21T15:27:00.000-04:00

The latest Fox News poll has been released with Obama up +3. More interesting are its questions about the Democrats VP choice.

Respondents generally and both Democrats and Independents specifically report that they would be less likely to vote for Obama if Biden, Bayh or Kaine were his running mate. 56% of democrats say Clinton would be the best choice but only 41% of Independents and 28% of Republicans.

Scott919: The currency in which oil is denominate...

2008-08-21T15:21:00.000-04:00

Scott919: The currency in which oil is denominated is not so important as the currency in which reserves are held. Consider Italy, which has euros and wants oil. They sell euros for dollars, give the dollars to OPEC for oil, and OPEC holds the dollars. Because OPEC is willing to accept AND HOLD dollars, the value of the dollar is supported. Actually, rather then hold them, they loan the dollars back to us to fund our chronic deficits in exchange for the promise of even more future dollars, i.e. Treasuries. Hence, because OPEC is willing to hold Treasuries, we get modest financing costs for our debt. Now suppose OPEC continued to require dollars for oil sales, but wanted their accumulating reserves to be denominated in Euros. Easy. Italy sells Euros for dollars, gives dollars to OPEC for oil, OPEC sells dollars for euros, and holds the euros or buys euro-denominated debt. The oil transaction is still denominated in dollars, but because the reserves are held in euros, there's no support for the dollar or for Treasuries. The story is the same in Asia except the export is plastic junk, electronics and apparel rather than oil.

On topic: If Obama were going to pick Hillary, I would expect major operations in AR and WV, states that would likely become competitive. I haven't seen evidence of that.

And, Obama attacking McCain: I think the overall thrust should be that McCain used to be a maverick and a straight-talker, but after 2000 he sold his soul to the rightwing fringe in order to get the nomination this time around. That includes kissing up to Bush and vowing to continue his failed policies, but it also cuts deeper, challenging McCain's core brand.

The more McCain is exposed to large audiences (lik...

2008-08-21T15:13:00.000-04:00

The more McCain is exposed to large audiences (like the debates), the more the country will see that he is losing his mental capacities. The only countries that elect leaders as old as McCain are the old eastern block communist countries and China.

There's a new McCain GAFFE, and this one is gettin...

2008-08-21T14:57:00.000-04:00

There's a new McCain GAFFE, and this one is getting MSM attention:

McCain was asked how many houses he owned. His response? He stammered for a bit and told the reporter that his staff would have to get back on that one. Later, the response was modified to say they "think, four." (BTW, I've heard the correct answer is nine. Nine.)

HOW CAN YOU NOT KNOW HOW MANY HOMES YOU OWN?? Are you so out of touch that you've lost count? I guess coming from a guy who thinks the threshold for rich is $5 million, this makes sense?!

McCain's comments hit pretty close to home, for me...

2008-08-21T14:43:00.000-04:00

McCain's comments hit pretty close to home, for me.

When I was very young, a strange old woman wandered into our house through the garage, while my whole family was home. She was confused, thinking that she was in her own house, and clearly wasn't thinking straight, but we tried to explain to her that she was not in her own home, and eventually had to call the police to help her find her way home.

It makes me feel all warm inside to know that, in America, somebody like the old woman from my childhood could one day be the President of our great country. It just goes to show that, even though you can't remember where you live because you're senile, you can still run for the highest office in the country. We, as a nation, have come a long way!!!

Matt-Ah, I'm very happy too. It's a perfect low b...

2008-08-21T14:38:00.000-04:00

Matt-

Ah, I'm very happy too. It's a perfect low brow issue to hammer, it's entertaining and memorable, and ties well into taxes/energy/housing stump speech. Out of curiosity i just flipped on CNN and it was playing Obama making fun of McCain's statement.

Let's get ready to rumble...

Matt-It could be holding off to let the media work...

2008-08-21T14:32:00.000-04:00

Matt-

It could be holding off to let the media work themselves up about it to a breaking point, plus waiting for the Olympics to take backseat. I figure it doesn't necessarily hurt to not put it out til right before the convention either.

MATT J. H. said... Can someone please tell me why ...

2008-08-21T14:30:00.000-04:00

MATT J. H. said...

Can someone please tell me why Obama has not picked his VP yet. The convention starts Monday, if he has indeed made up his mind, holding out further has no benefit. It feels as though he's still undecided but reporters claim they have sourced who say his mind is made up.

-------------

Don't trust the press. There have been no leaks from the people in the Obama campaign that know anything about it.

I think they want the announcement to flow directly into the convention to get the longest possible positive bounce out of both.

If it is not HRC the move to the convention may also deflate some of the dissatisfaction of her supporters. If it is her, the media will go batshit and that level of intensity will spring board into the convention and well after.

SalP7 said... The Dems need to keep throwing st...

2008-08-21T14:29:00.000-04:00

SalP7 said...
The Dems need to keep throwing stuff at McCain until something sticks. It won't be easy because McCain gets a pass from the MSM for his gaffes. They should have been doing this six weeks ago instead of taking the high road. They have to play by Rove's rules. I'd mention every day that McCain is for the draft.
Me, I'm for the draft, not because I was in the military 71-73, but so the rich will think twice about going to war if their kids will be drafted.

You are exactly right. If the united states want to implement a draft, it should be based on all age appropriate children not just those not in college. I think this country would explode if the rich folk didn't have to send they're kids. Its not the 70's no more.

Matt-Because hes getting cold feet and has no cour...

2008-08-21T14:25:00.001-04:00

Matt-

Because hes getting cold feet and has no courage?

I doubt we will know before Saturday. We definitely won't know today.

You mean to say the Obama campaign is actually goi...

2008-08-21T14:25:00.000-04:00

You mean to say the Obama campaign is actually going to start employing a coherent consistent media message with talking points? HALALUIA!

And he's finally going after McCain for being out of touch? well its about damn time. Welcome to the general election barack, we've been waiting for you. Better late than never.

P.S.-Obama's new AD, "Seven" is excellent.
Check it out