Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Road to 270: Maryland

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You know what I just noticed. Under Sociological ...

2008-10-15T20:59:00.000-04:00

You know what I just noticed. Under Sociological there is the Starbucks to Walmart Ratio. It would be neat to see these ratios for each state laid out side by side with the polling. I'm thinking that there is a trend, but I don't want to write it until I look at more of them.

Fatti maschi, parole femine, bitches! We're in the...

2008-10-15T19:44:00.000-04:00

Fatti maschi, parole femine, bitches! We're in the tank for Obama, and lovin' it!

Yup, this article looks pretty factual from this M...

2008-10-15T19:03:00.000-04:00

Yup, this article looks pretty factual from this Marylander! The entry way into my 1200 home community is lined on both side without one missing for the whole mile with Obama signs. and no its not a coincidence, its been like that for maybe 2 weeks now. hmm kodak moment? i think thats what I'll do.

I'll bet $500 that Arkansas goes McCain by at leas...

2008-10-15T18:40:00.000-04:00

I'll bet $500 that Arkansas goes McCain by at least +10.

Who is Nate kidding having the Natural State as just a +2.3 lean with?

I'd take that bet. Email me for working out details.

Lugar and Obama clearly get along well. He's my f...

2008-10-15T18:37:00.000-04:00

Lugar and Obama clearly get along well. He's my first choice for Secretary of Defense. I'd say State, but Richardson belongs there. Regardless, a prominent Republican in the cabinet would be a good symbolic gesture.

The polling thread, it's a' comingThe polling thre...

2008-10-15T18:26:00.000-04:00

The polling thread, it's a' coming

The polling thread, it's a' coming

Those without McCain's age
Will refresh the page

Because the polling thread, it's a' coming!

It's here

"McCain is in a huge pit of his own digging. If h...

2008-10-15T18:24:00.001-04:00

"McCain is in a huge pit of his own digging. If he attacks, he makes his base happy, and loses even more Independents. If he doesn't attack, the rabid Palinites stay home."

This "Who is Barack Obama really?" business and the stressing of ACORN (poor black people registering other poor black people to vote) was a simple tactic designed to black-ify Obama by making moderates and independents view him as the candidate of poor black folks, and not the candidate of middle class white folks (as Obama has so ably positioned himself). It has totally backfired however, by turning his own campaign events into epithet screaming McKlan rallies and turning off the people that the tactic was meant to persuade. Not many people like thinking of themselves as racist. Lost in this is how McCain has totally lost control of his own running mate, who now believes that she's got nothing to lose in all of this and that she's the star of the ticket and possibly really even the actual candidate.

It will come out later that Palin is off the reservation at her own events and subtly (or not so subtly) undermining McCain.

I'm absolutely puzzled, and almost agitated, by Na...

2008-10-15T18:24:00.000-04:00

I'm absolutely puzzled, and almost agitated, by Nate's assessment of Arkansas.

I've been playing nice for a while, and overall I've come to appreciate his model much more than before and believe that he is mostly on the money across the board; however, he's flat out using hocus pocus and making up junk to have Arkansas that close.

Absolutely, positively no way.

Trout Chevy Pike Palin said... http://news.yahoo.c...

2008-10-15T18:20:00.001-04:00

Trout Chevy Pike Palin said...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/cq/20081015/pl_cq_politics/politics2975236_4

Dick Lugar endorsed Obama.

did not endorse. agrees with on one policy. if lugar flat-out endorsed Obama it would've been all over the news. there won't be a defector this campaign. lieberman doesn't count, since he's a pariah and indy.

Nate must be factoring a bit of a "spillover" or "...

2008-10-15T18:20:00.000-04:00

Nate must be factoring a bit of a "spillover" or "neighbor" effect on Arkansas from Missouri.

Sorry to break the news to him, but Arkansas will more closely follow OK, LA, MS, and AL than MO.

It's not very cosmopolitan. Trust me.

I lived in Baltimore County until I went away to c...

2008-10-15T18:19:00.000-04:00

I lived in Baltimore County until I went away to college, and I can echo the comments from other Marylanders who say we get offended if people call us southern or consider ours a southern state. Mason-Dixon line-wise: yes. =But DC is entirely to the south of Maryland and I don't think anyone would call it southern or part of The South. Still, there are parts of Maryland which feel very southern, they're just not the parts most Dems (or most people) are. But no one from the South has ever thought of me as anything but a Yank.

mpr said Baltimore is "a place with northern charm and southern efficiency." Comedy troupe The State saw it differently in their book State by State with the State, writing (I believe) "Baltimore combines the industrial decline of the north with the casual racism of the south."

About today's map, Indiana in pink seem reasonable...

2008-10-15T18:18:00.000-04:00

About today's map, Indiana in pink seem reasonable. It's being stubborn.

The polling thread, it's a' comingThe polling thre...

2008-10-15T18:17:00.002-04:00

The polling thread, it's a' coming

The polling thread, it's a' coming

Those without McCain's age
Will refresh the page

Because the polling thread, it's a' coming!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/cq/20081015/pl_cq_politics...

2008-10-15T18:17:00.001-04:00

http://news.yahoo.com/s/cq/20081015/pl_cq_politics/politics2975236_4

Dick Lugar endorsed Obama.

I'll grant the obvious. If Obama wins any of thes...

2008-10-15T18:17:00.000-04:00

I'll grant the obvious. If Obama wins any of these, he's likely to win, but give me an either or guess. Do you think Obama is more likely to win:

Virginia
or
Colorado

Ohio
or
Florida

North Carolina
or
Missouri

Indiana
or
West Virginia

Montana
or
North Dakota

Nevada
or
NO

I'll bet $500 that Arkansas goes McCain by at leas...

2008-10-15T18:16:00.000-04:00

I'll bet $500 that Arkansas goes McCain by at least +10.

Who is Nate kidding having the Natural State as just a +2.3 lean with?

Give me a break.

OK, I'm not sure if anyone posted this yesterday b...

2008-10-15T18:14:00.000-04:00

OK, I'm not sure if anyone posted this yesterday because I haven't been keeping track as much. But I think this is just FASCINATING:

McCain Transition Chief Aided Saddam In Lobbying Effort
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/14/mccain-transition-chief-a_n_134595.html

DCM - Nate's, silly. Right there on the right sid...

2008-10-15T18:12:00.002-04:00

DCM - Nate's, silly. Right there on the right side of the page. Though I'm starting to wonder if it's a bug rather than today's real new numbers - NE-2's flipped to solid red, which doesn't seem right, and I don't know that Arkansas turning pale feels right either...

intrade:McCain 17.7

2008-10-15T18:12:00.001-04:00

intrade:

McCain 17.7

dcm, 538

2008-10-15T18:12:00.000-04:00

dcm, 538

Does Florida start early voting tomorrow or the 20...

2008-10-15T18:10:00.000-04:00

Does Florida start early voting tomorrow or the 20th? Also, anyone know what district that moron Dem House Rep from Florida is in. I saw 16th, but where is that? I wonder if that will hurt Obama a lot?

THENEwhose chart are you referencing ?

2008-10-15T18:08:00.000-04:00

THENE

whose chart are you referencing ?

Polling update :)

2008-10-15T18:07:00.000-04:00

Polling update :)