Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Intrade Betting is Suspicious

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2009-07-22T03:46:22.795-04:00

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2009-05-26T09:30:03.033-04:00

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2009-05-23T07:03:43.722-04:00

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2009-05-22T13:08:23.437-04:00

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2009-05-12T09:53:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-09T21:03:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-19T08:13:00.000-05:00

KUDOS!!Turns out you were right. Hope you are just...

2008-10-17T15:04:00.000-04:00

KUDOS!!

Turns out you were right. Hope you are just as right about the election!

You were right, Nate, and I heard it here first.-a...

2008-10-17T13:49:00.000-04:00

You were right, Nate, and I heard it here first.

-a longtime lurker

Someone WAS manipulating the market.http://www.cqp...

2008-10-17T13:46:00.000-04:00

Someone WAS manipulating the market.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002976265&referrer=js

Well, looks like you were right after all Nate:htt...

2008-10-17T12:49:00.000-04:00

Well, looks like you were right after all Nate:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Gaming_Intrade.html?showall

Great job!

Actually... If you take a look at Intrade lately, ...

2008-10-08T06:35:00.000-04:00

Actually... If you take a look at Intrade lately, I suspect you are correct. The race is close, the electoral race is closer than the polls with tossups and within the margins of error would have you believe.

Today Intrade has Obama with a 71% chance. I think that is patently absurd. The secret service has no jurisdiction over intrade since this is not a United States offering since internet gambling is illegal here.

So I would like to know which Soros backed or Mortgage giant backed trader is pumping money into Obama.

Just to speculate on the conspiracy theory a bit. ...

2008-10-01T18:26:00.000-04:00

Just to speculate on the conspiracy theory a bit. If Obana were physically taken out..
1) Dems would turn to his strongest competitor Hilary and not to Biden, and
2) she would win in a landslide as people reacted to the tragedy
Doesn't it make sense that either a gambler or some people with inside knowledge would bet on this? And don't tell me there aren't plenty of white supemicist whackos out there thinking about it.

On a side note: the comparison of the out-of-line ...

2008-09-27T13:56:00.000-04:00

On a side note: the comparison of the out-of-line markets to a middle on the point spread is incorrect. If you were to buy Obama for 50 on Intrade and sell him at 60 on Betfair, you would lock in 10 ticks (times however many contract-dollars) regardless of outcome. No middling is necessary. (What would a middle even be?--these are percentages, not adders.)

Everyone probably knew this already, of course,...

My theory: a group of republicans are trying to ma...

2008-09-27T11:40:00.000-04:00

My theory: a group of republicans are trying to manipulate prices so the media reports that Obama is not ahead by much so voters move that direction. It's a classic case of price fraud, which many on Wall Street understand, e.g., inflated dot com values, inflated CDOs, etc. This manipulation will cost far less than $700 billion in CASH but far more if it helps McCain win.

I believe this is a repub driven manipulation vs. ...

2008-09-26T18:34:00.000-04:00

I believe this is a repub driven manipulation vs. something far more repugnant, depressing and, unfortunately, not out of the realm of possibility.

And if this is the case, the silver (gold?) lining is that one can make more money when Obama wins.

Sorry to be make a political joke, but Intrade should list a contract on whether Palin will utter a coherent sentence during the debate.

Has anyone mentioned that the Iowa Exchange contra...

2008-09-26T12:50:00.000-04:00

Has anyone mentioned that the Iowa Exchange contract is on the popular vote winner, not the electoral vote winner, whereas Intrade is the electoral vote winner? In this case the traded item is not the same so there is no reason why we should expect the prices to be close to each other...

that's the obama campaign hedging itself.

2008-09-26T12:47:00.000-04:00

that's the obama campaign hedging itself.

Here is a graph of the discrepancy between Intrade...

2008-09-25T23:47:00.000-04:00

Here is a graph of the discrepancy between Intrade and IEM over time. There's been an unusually large difference in prices lately.

There is no mention of the campaign being suspende...

2008-09-25T09:06:00.000-04:00

There is no mention of the campaign being suspended on McCain's campaign website.

This is such a gimmick. I heard David Gergen still giving McCain the benefit of the doubt on this. Until some poll says otherwise, the media is not going to call it for what it is.

I reply here.

2008-09-25T00:49:00.000-04:00

I reply here.

Has anyone considered:Intrade is mentioned here, o...

2008-09-24T21:17:00.000-04:00

Has anyone considered:

Intrade is mentioned here, on RCP, on Rasmussen, and many other sites pertaining to polling and elections. Betfair's presidential market has never been mentioned on any of those (until now).

US political junkies, most likely interested in POTUS markets, see Intrade all over the place on election junkie sites. They want to put a few bucks on. Most being partisan, they mostly bet on their favorite candidate. Remarkably, they do this in a 52-48 ratio, similar to national polling.

Betfair et al, mostly unknown to most Americans except sports bettors and poker players like me and a lot of you, are getting more action on Obama. That trendline is consistent with world opinion/desire in the POTUS race.

If Betfair was more of a true free market, it would not be unreasonable to see a line there similar to tracking polls. As it stands, the barrier to entry to the Betfair market is quite high for the average US citizen.

Nothing nefarious here.

Markets exist to be manipulated.That being said, I...

2008-09-24T20:51:00.000-04:00

Markets exist to be manipulated.

That being said, I think Intrade is more accurate because of the "Bradley Effect". Europeans are probably not aware of it, or may discount it. It is the one HUGE unknown in the election, much more so than the margin of error in a poll. Essentially, it makes the polls useless. You need to add 3% to 6% to McCain -- exactly how much per state unknown, to get a feel for how close the race is going to be.

Before you completely dismiss this as unlikely ... let's get real. Some very viseral issues, like gay marriage, bilingual education, and affirmative action, have been overwhelmingly rejected when put to a popular vote. Despite the best efforts of the media and politicians to spin them as the next step to a utopian world.

Race and kicking Hillary off the ticket are REALLY viseral issues. If you don't think women won't take everyone down with them when they are wronged, check out divorce court.

Obama has made it clear he doesn't like uneducated whites that cling to their bibles and guns. That is, of course, the group he needs to connect with to win.

The NRA, Rev. Wright, and making fun of Palin are not helping with this demographic. Along with Pelosi and Biden citing incorrect Catholic theology.

McCain is doing his best to stay out of the election and let it be an up or down vote on Obama.

61% is absurd. It's a 50-50 race right now.However...

2008-09-24T20:40:00.000-04:00

61% is absurd. It's a 50-50 race right now.

However, someone needs to make money on the arbitrage opportunity

It's just some McCain campaign aides shorting Obam...

2008-09-24T20:05:00.000-04:00

It's just some McCain campaign aides shorting Obama shares to keep his price low, and the idea is to stir up panic among Obama supporters.

However, this only works if other Obama shareholders see the drop and then sell their own shares, which drives down the price even further.

Also, the McCain aides have to slowly buy Obama stock back up in order to resell it again. That explains the gradual climb between each sell off, but traders could buy up more Obama shares when they see the gradual increase, which drives up Obama's share price further.

However, I bet the uncertainty caused by these constant intentional fluctuations are scaring away enough potential Obama buyers to keep the price at a high of 51 to 52% instead of 60+%. Oddly enough, however, that may end up being Obama's popular vote percentage.

McCain's campaign people think they are so smart, because they think they have thought of everything and because many of them have the Bush victories under their belt. That kind of arrogance doesn't do anybody any good, though, and it certainly turns me off.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Intrade Betting is Suspicious

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KUDOS!!Turns out you were right. Hope you are just...

You were right, Nate, and I heard it here first.-a...

Someone WAS manipulating the market.http://www.cqp...

Well, looks like you were right after all Nate:htt...

Actually... If you take a look at Intrade lately, ...

Just to speculate on the conspiracy theory a bit. ...

On a side note: the comparison of the out-of-line ...

My theory: a group of republicans are trying to ma...

I believe this is a repub driven manipulation vs. ...

Has anyone mentioned that the Iowa Exchange contra...

that's the obama campaign hedging itself.

Here is a graph of the discrepancy between Intrade...

There is no mention of the campaign being suspende...

I reply here.

Has anyone considered:Intrade is mentioned here, o...

Markets exist to be manipulated.That being said, I...

61% is absurd. It's a 50-50 race right now.However...

It's just some McCain campaign aides shorting Obam...

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