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2009-01-19T09:09:00.000-05:00

mccaine is the 2008 person of herbert hoover and t...

2008-10-05T06:07:00.000-04:00

mccaine is the 2008 person of herbert hoover and the polls show it, even indiania is going to be blue, mac alredy gave up in wisconsin and its going to be pa very soon, history does indeed repeat itself.

Why does pollster.com have McCain ahead in the ele...

2008-09-26T05:24:00.000-04:00

Why does pollster.com have McCain ahead in the electoral college if votes were held today? Scary stuff.

http://theswitchintime.blogspot.com

Houston, we have a problem.

2008-09-19T18:02:00.000-04:00

Houston, we have a problem.

Jeff from Colorado, hope you see this.I went to Pu...

2008-09-19T02:01:00.000-04:00

Jeff from Colorado, hope you see this.

I went to Pueblo to see the Senator Obama's speech on Monday, MANY people from Colorado Springs. Pueblo is stromg democratic. Manitou Springs and the entire west side of the Springs is Obama territory. We see our trouble in the more eastern/southern parts of town where there are many vets.

FYI though. Colorado Springs is working our rears off to get him elected. Our 1 house district alone did 800 door knocks and 1000 phone calls in 1 weekend. Every district is pulling in high numbers. I have asked our field organizer to give me a city wide list of how we ar doing. the GREAT news is that on our polling with phone calls we are seeing more and more Obama or undecided. I didn't have 1 McCain supporter when I called tonite. YES! So I suppose we COULD pull off a miracle here in the 16th most republican county in the nation---sigh. Pat

Hmm... Financial crisis. Harvard Law or 3rd to las...

2008-09-19T00:29:00.000-04:00

Hmm... Financial crisis. Harvard Law or 3rd to last in his class McCain. Hmmmmm. I live in Ohio, Colorado, Indiana, and our economies are JUST ROCKIN' under Bush, maybe we could give the thugs just ONE MORE CHANCE! LOL

Well, this is a good illustration of the flaws in ...

2008-09-19T00:22:00.000-04:00

Well, this is a good illustration of the flaws in the model. It's plainly obvious the race hasn't fundamentally changed by ~15 points so quickly, just as it was obvious McCain didn't have a 2/3 chance of winning or whatever absurd number was up a couple weeks ago. I'd personally prefer it if there was a bit more work placed in demographic analysis than PIE, as polls not especially helpful right now.

Hahaha, I was wondering who that was! Hilarious.

2008-09-18T23:29:00.000-04:00

Hahaha, I was wondering who that was! Hilarious.

Whups, looks like the hotlinking caught up with yo...

2008-09-18T23:26:00.000-04:00

Whups, looks like the hotlinking caught up with you. Your siren pic got replaced by some dude's head.

Uh, fellas? You really shouldn't hotlink to an ima...

2008-09-18T23:24:00.000-04:00

Uh, fellas? You really shouldn't hotlink to an image from another site for the Drudge siren, because it's not the Drudge siren anymore...

http://www.nomaas.org/images/drudge_siren.gif

Won't this hurt Obama's chances if it becomes more...

2008-09-18T23:02:00.000-04:00

Won't this hurt Obama's chances if it becomes more of an issue?

2005 Federal Housing Regulatory Reform Acthttp://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=s109-190

John McCain - January 2005 "I join as a cosponsor of the Federal Housing Enterprise Regulatory Reform Act of 2005, S. 190, to underscore my support for quick passage of GSE regulatory reform legislation. If Congress does not act, American taxpayers will continue to be exposed to the enormous risk that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pose to the housing market, the overall financial system, and the economy as a whole.I urge my colleagues to support swift action on this GSE reform legislation."

Well this is one Northern Virginian Liberal who wi...

2008-09-18T21:52:00.000-04:00

Well this is one Northern Virginian Liberal who will sleep better tonight. Matthew, Colorado has flipped back (from a pale but ever-deepening pink) to a lovely sky blue. Ohio and VA have blanched to just about pure white (as has New Hampshire, sadly), and even Florida, Indian, Missour, and Montana are looking a little pale.

Please let this be the turning point...

The siren makes me LMAO. Hilarious.

2008-09-18T20:36:00.000-04:00

The siren makes me LMAO.

Hilarious.

Sully:I suppose you could compare the your initial...

2008-09-18T20:33:00.000-04:00

Sully:

I suppose you could compare the your initial posts and then your comments explaining them and say that you contradict yourself. Not that I care one Whit, man.

(Yes, I recognized the quotation)

is not socialism

2008-09-18T20:11:00.001-04:00

is not socialism

Vernon, you were trying so hard to sound reasonabl...

2008-09-18T20:11:00.000-04:00

Vernon, you were trying so hard to sound reasonable. Regulating rogue financial institutions (such as all the crooked mortgage brokers out there [I sent one to prison myself]) is socialism.

Observer-What you mean is the Dems hope to win the...

2008-09-18T20:06:00.000-04:00

Observer-
What you mean is the Dems hope to win the presidency and larger margins in Congress so they can socialize everything. That makes sense. Let's give the Obama-Reid-Pelosi Triumvirate a mandate so they can impose their solutions on us for our own good!

Stocks soar most in six years? California home sa...

2008-09-18T20:05:00.000-04:00

Stocks soar most in six years? California home sales surge as prices plummet? Unemployment at 6.1 % (compared to 30% during the Great Depression)? Biden calls higher taxes a patriotic act?

Do you get the feeling that this election could go in any direction still? The polls out today continue to surprise me in how close they are. I thought Obama would leap ahead in most of the battleground states. The media may hate Palin and McCain for selecting her but clearly despite the Kos-financed polling on her negatives she's still a force to be reckoned with. This will be the most interesting election of our time (even over 2000).
Vern/Vanessa 2012
The Best Candidates in the History of Planet Earth!

@Sullydog ---Yeah, I see what you're saying, and I...

2008-09-18T19:58:00.000-04:00

@Sullydog ---

Yeah, I see what you're saying, and I agree Obama needs to be wary of that kind of stuff. As a red state resident myself, I know how powerful those images and gimmicks can be. I'm more optimistic than you are though --- the Bradley Effect isn't nearly as strong as it used to be, and I think Palin may turn out to be the final nail in the McCain campaign coffin. We shall see.

Speaking of Palin, have fun with that poster! ;-)

It seems like there are a lot of people who don't ...

2008-09-18T19:51:00.000-04:00

It seems like there are a lot of people who don't understand how Nate's model works. I didn't understand in fully at first myself. The Colorado poll is not the reason for the shift in results today. The model curbs the impact of an outlier such as that. It's the national polls that have changed the results the model is producing.

Dario pointed out yesterday that McCain had a 99%-1% win average in TX while Obama has something like 86%-14% in CA and 94%-6% in NY. Look at the numbers today: TX is 99%-2% (?) chance for McCain while CA is 99%-1% and NY is 100%-0% for Obama.

A rising tide lifts all boats. Obama's national numbers have gone up, which changes the trend as seen by the model. After a few days of seeing McCain's national numbers decline and Obama's go up, the model has changed it's mind about the direction of the race. The model is no longer forecasting a McCain trend, but is now seeing a slight Obama trend. It adjusts all states accordingly, which gives Obama more EVs on average, and increases his overall chances of winning the election.

Anyone who thinks that one state poll has more weight than all the other hundreds of state polls that the model takes into account is ignorant of what this site is about.

Vernon: In the time frame that we have, governmen...

2008-09-18T19:48:00.001-04:00

Vernon: In the time frame that we have, government role in the economic crisis has to be handled by the Fed and Treasury. Congress will need to tackle all of this in depth next year, with a major overhaul of the regulatory framework for important sectors of the financial markets.

Dick Morris is a good analyst but he seems a bit o...

2008-09-18T19:48:00.000-04:00

Dick Morris is a good analyst but he seems a bit off giving McCain 290 electoral votes unless he knows something about the internals that we don't. Perhaps he's referencing the University of Illinois statistical projections of a certain McCain win. I think they're both full of it. This is a tight race and Obama has a legitimate chance to pull it off depending on the reality of the Bradley Effect.
Go Vern! Go Vanessa!
Vern/Vanessa 2012
A Two-Party Solution to the Two-Party Problem!

cag, do you not get that obama's the one making fu...

2008-09-18T19:46:00.000-04:00

cag, do you not get that obama's the one making fun of mccain?

saying he cant use a computer, and doesnt know how to use some of the new tech stuff we have now? so it's basicly mccain's the hare, and mccain's the tortoise.

what ever happend to all that hope and change stuff obama alway's talked about in the begining anyways? where's the new candidate like we'v never had before? did he die or somthing?

this is going to be a close election coming down to only about 4 state's and everyone knew this except for well, obama and the idiot who ever thought about a 50 state stratige........

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Obama Pulls Ahead in Electoral College Projection

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情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

mccaine is the 2008 person of herbert hoover and t...

Why does pollster.com have McCain ahead in the ele...

Houston, we have a problem.

Jeff from Colorado, hope you see this.I went to Pu...

Hmm... Financial crisis. Harvard Law or 3rd to las...

Well, this is a good illustration of the flaws in ...

Hahaha, I was wondering who that was! Hilarious.

Whups, looks like the hotlinking caught up with yo...

Uh, fellas? You really shouldn't hotlink to an ima...

Won't this hurt Obama's chances if it becomes more...

Well this is one Northern Virginian Liberal who wi...

The siren makes me LMAO. Hilarious.

Sully:I suppose you could compare the your initial...

is not socialism

Vernon, you were trying so hard to sound reasonabl...

Observer-What you mean is the Dems hope to win the...

Stocks soar most in six years? California home sa...

@Sullydog ---Yeah, I see what you're saying, and I...

It seems like there are a lot of people who don't ...

Vernon: In the time frame that we have, governmen...

Dick Morris is a good analyst but he seems a bit o...

cag, do you not get that obama's the one making fu...