Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/3

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2009-03-12T01:41:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T01:41:00.000-04:00

Not sure why the comments are missing on the conve...

2008-09-03T23:28:00.000-04:00

Not sure why the comments are missing on the convention blog but OMG Palin, Rudy and Huck each it smashing home runs. No need for a clean up hitter with this team. Now off to tomorrow and McCains pre victory speech.

James: You claim to be a "smart conservative," but...

2008-09-03T22:02:00.000-04:00

James:

You claim to be a "smart conservative," but your post raises questions about your judgment and, as a Harvard Alumnus (Mid 60's , magna cum laude), I am a bit embarassed by the lack of evidence behind your speculations and the hint of racial prejudice that wanders through it.

You have cited no evidence to support your speculations about grade inflation at Columbia. It is possible there was affirmative action behind the admission, but we don't know.

As for the law school there is no evidence other than the fact that affirmative action exists to support your speculation, and no evidence about the Law Review. When I was in law school (not Harvard) your grades had to be high enough even to try out and I bellieve Harvard, like most law schools, uses blind grading systems. This is so the professor will not know who wrote the exam being graded.

All this speculation about Affirmative action without any specific evidence behind it compels the belief that there is a tinge of bias there, possibly racial, possibly blind partisanship, possibly both.

Somebody said they wanted a smart conservative on ...

2008-09-03T20:07:00.000-04:00

Somebody said they wanted a smart conservative on this blog, and I agree you desperately need one, so I'm going to jump in and hope.

I offer two overview ideas.

The first is I think from Castiglione, but maybe Machiavelli, and says basically that if men of letters think they're going to judge men of arms, then they better be ready to be judged by them. My hunch is that the demographic of bloggers here is pretty homogeneous.

Second is to try to wipe a little of the stardust out of your eyes. I'm very suspect of the people here who think BHO has an IQ of 200. NY Sun had an article about Obama and Columbia U. yesterday, in which it pointed out that he won't release his transcript, and they won't either. But, he graduated without honors.

In the Ivies, a colossal percentage of people graduate with honors. When I was at Harvard, I think it was well nigh 70%, since there's a lot of grade inflation. So he's almost surely in the bottom half of his class, and we know he got a fair number of C's in high school.

But he gets into Harvard Law.

Right.

You have here the first Affirmative Action candidate -- Harvard clearly took him on race (would never happen otherwise) and probably put him on the Law Review to be able to brag they had an A.-A. in that position. What he does to get honors in law school isn't so clear, but it does seem odd that suddenly, for the first time in his life, he manages this.

The guy's a corrupt Chicago pol, whose idea of running a race there was to challenge the petition signatures of all his opponents until he was running unopposed! Not exactly new politics.

But rather than look at the dark side, you guys are full of how Palin (gasp!) goes to church, has five children, etc.

I wish you did more research into exactly what BHO is likely to do if elected, which in my opinion is very scary. Total, tedious, 60's left-wing clone. I was there.

Are things that desperately bad in the US that we need collectively to throw that kind of Hail Mary?? Really? Samuelson's article today makes it clear that the economy isn't bad, despite all the efforts of the media to pump up the "wrong path" statistic; the war's winding down, and positively at that; there have been no further terror attacks here since 9/11 and AlQaeda seems to be switching tactics because they can't win by violence. Nice!

Only people of a pretty hard-left philosophy would feel such a desperate need to "change" - and Palin makes ordinary people (see above) feel good about themselves even when the media is telling them they are trash.

I think the extreme reaction to her by the Left is caused by the fact that they sense this, and are afraid, and want to kill her NOW. They won't, I don't think, although we'll see later tonight. She can maybe traipse through PA, OH, MI, IN, MO, MN, CO, NV and do McCain an awful lot of good - and who do you think won in 2004, if not the GOTV and ground game of the evangelicals.

McCain could easily win this, and I hope he pulls it off. Would serve the blind Left right (sorry!).

Thanks Redshift,Just that Id read it and got worri...

2008-09-03T19:57:00.000-04:00

Thanks Redshift,

Just that Id read it and got worried, hey were talking about how Obama has a huge waste of people resources on the ground whilst they can target their voters for GOTV with new phone technology. I just don't want people getting overconfident.
I think Obamas organising effort will make a huge difference esp in VA, OH, NC, MO,FL but the Repubs surprised in 04 esp in Ohio.

This is the polar opposite of what La Noonan just ...

2008-09-03T18:29:00.000-04:00

This is the polar opposite of what La Noonan just wrote on WSJ oped page.

And now the rank and file rightwingers get to know what the GOP elite really thinks. This is the ultimate crime - Peggy has harshly violated the innocence of GOP foot soldiers. She has the smoothest BS operation in business - announcing that Palin is super star in Wall Street Journal and then hissing "It's over" over a hot mike.

LOL - the timing could hardly be more delicious. The veil has been ripped away just hours before Caribou Barbie debuts.

Carlos, a couple minor quibbles. Jews may be only...

2008-09-03T18:22:00.000-04:00

Carlos, a couple minor quibbles. Jews may be only 3% of Florida population, but per CNN Senate exit polls in 2004 and 2006, Jews were 6% and 4% of the electorate, respectively. I think you're probably about a little high on your estimated Obama support among Florida Jews pre-Palin, but not too far off. Perhaps this is wishful thinking, but if the Biden-Palin 1-2 punch increases Obama's support by 10 points and Jews are 5% of the electorate, that's worth a 0.5% increase for Obama and 0.5% decrease for McCain--enough to make a difference in close elections. No doubt Hispanics will be a major factor in Florida however, as you note.

anothermike: Oh, I was so hoping he'd pick Lieberm...

2008-09-03T18:18:00.000-04:00

anothermike: Oh, I was so hoping he'd pick Lieberman!

Cathal:If that's their secret weapon, they're trul...

2008-09-03T18:16:00.001-04:00

Cathal:
If that's their secret weapon, they're truly whistling past the graveyard. The number of people who don't answer calls because caller ID says its out of state must be tiny compared to ones who let the answering machine get it if they don't know the number, or who (like me) don't have caller ID and screen all their calls through the answering machine.

Face-to-face contact is many times more effective than telephone or direct mail; there's no telephone-based strategy (automated or otherwise) that will match the Obama campaign's army of volunteers. (The one thing that could is the religious right.)

redshift, I totally agree about Huck. I can't hel...

2008-09-03T18:16:00.000-04:00

redshift, I totally agree about Huck. I can't help myself but to like the guy. He's also a fantastic campaigner. Maybe this is overinfluenced by being in Texas, but friends and family here all have a very positive view of him. After Snowe and maybe Hutchison, he's the VP candidate I feared most. The Club for Growth and Limbaugh wing of the party might have had a fit, but they want to win more than anything else and they would not have abandoned McCain over Huck. Lieberman on the other hand . . . .

Look, Florida is only 3% Jewish. Of that three pe...

2008-09-03T18:10:00.000-04:00

Look, Florida is only 3% Jewish. Of that three percent, two are probably already voting for Obama. Because of their small numbers the "Jewish vote" has little power to move an election one way or another. Florida's electoral outcome will depend far more upon the choices of Hispanics.

VA Con:That and his fiscal conservative bona-fides...

2008-09-03T18:08:00.000-04:00

VA Con:
That and his fiscal conservative bona-fides are shaky.

Yeah, I've heard discussion that the real reason he was never considered for VP is that the corporate wing of the party can't stand him because of that.

Something I havn't seen mentioned is what the RNC ...

2008-09-03T18:06:00.000-04:00

Something I havn't seen mentioned is what the RNC turnout machine will be like, there was a mention on the TNR blog by a reporter who wandered into a private session where officials were tutoring activists on its GOTV effort involving new telephone technology and a system that allows ou to dial in from out of state but have the number show up as a local one on caller id

I think Murphy saying this is an even bigger blow ...

2008-09-03T18:05:00.000-04:00

I think Murphy saying this is an even bigger blow than Noonan. Murphy has been all over the media as an attack dog for the GOP, pushing back on anything negative. Now every time he does that, everyone will be reminded of this candid moment.

Gaffes become big, when they do, not because someone said something dumb, but because they unintentionally reveal the speaker's true beliefs, and even more, when they reveal something that lots of media figures already know to be true, but they can't bring up on their own without a "story" to hang it on.

My problem with Huck is, again, he didn't seem to ...

2008-09-03T18:02:00.000-04:00

My problem with Huck is, again, he didn't seem to have a foreign policy at all. That and his fiscal conservative bona-fides are shaky.

VA Con: Huckabee was always the one I was most wor...

2008-09-03T17:57:00.000-04:00

VA Con: Huckabee was always the one I was most worried about. I disagree with almost everything he believes in politically, and I still find him very personable and fun to watch.

"Besides Palin can help in North Florida."Doesn't ...

2008-09-03T17:56:00.000-04:00

"Besides Palin can help in North Florida."

Doesn't matter; tiny population in the panhandle.

The areas that matter are the I-4 corridor ( St Pete - Tampa - Orlando - Daytona ), and the big southern counties ( Dade, Palm Beach ). Where the people are.

There are nearly 1 million people living in Pinellas County alone.
Pensacola has only 50-60,000 residents.

The panhandle counties are not the critical part of the state.

topshelf1205 said... Can someone explain to me why...

2008-09-03T17:34:00.000-04:00

topshelf1205 said...
Can someone explain to me why this is a big deal? Is anybody going to change their vote because Peggy Noonan said it's over? I feel like this is big within the ultra political crowd, like us here on 538, not so much with joe six pack from Ohio.

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Who knows? Joe or Jane six pack probably have an opinion on the Palin pick that is being shaped by the press. The R strategist say it's great, perfect etc. when in public, but behind the scenes they see it as loopy, cynical, superficial etc. too.

As some of us mentioned. Mine and many others' first reaction (pre-scandals) was exactly what Noonan (R) and Murphy (R) said today.

The McCain trolls here said we were full of shit.

I guess we weren't.

another devastating thing about that open mic thin...

2008-09-03T17:33:00.002-04:00

another devastating thing about that open mic thing--Noonan wrote a piece stating the opposite THIS morning. If she comes out praising her after this no one will really believe it. Even if she says 'when I confess in that candid moment has been erased by the speech', precisely because she said one thing in public and another in private and we will always assume it is the same thing over again.

That said---this is for the refs. The low info voter won't care but that these guys said it and now everyone who pays attention heard it means that the cat is out of the bag for the opinion makers.

By the way, current NH registration numbers (as of...

2008-09-03T17:33:00.001-04:00

By the way, current NH registration numbers (as of Aug. 18) are:

Dem 263,217
Rep 268,108
Ind 332,217

Chris Matthews is such an enigma. He'll have thes...

2008-09-03T17:33:00.000-04:00

Chris Matthews is such an enigma. He'll have these moments when he'll simply not let bullshit come out unchallenged on his show...but only on occasion.

"Can someone explain to me why this is a big deal?...

2008-09-03T17:32:00.000-04:00

"Can someone explain to me why this is a big deal?"

Media pundits caught in a rare moment of honesty is ALWAYS a big deal. LOL.

"Holy crap. Chris Mathews is tearing two GOP tools...

2008-09-03T17:30:00.001-04:00

"Holy crap. Chris Mathews is tearing two GOP tools a new ass on MSNBC right now! Can't wait to see this video on Youtube."

Maybe this really WILL be the year the scum gets flushed out of the GOP.

I'm really behind the curve and playing catch up o...

2008-09-03T17:30:00.000-04:00

I'm really behind the curve and playing catch up on comments but this one stuck out:

Virginia Conservative said...

We will see what happens in Florida when there is a poll. I think you guys are engaging in a lot of wishful thinking. Remember, there's more to Florida than the area Orland and southward.

Most of Florida is the area from Orlando and southward. Look at a population density map:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Florida_population_map.png

See, those bright red areas from the center of the state and southward would be the three largest Metropololitan Statistical Areas in Florida. Orlando (population 1.1 million), Tampa (population 2 million), and that huge one on the south-east coast is Miami-Fort Lauderdale MSA, which has a population of 5 million on it's own. The largest MSA north of Orlando is Jacksonville, with a population a little under 900,000.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urbanized_areas_in_Florida_(by_population)

I love wikipedia.