Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Road to 270: Delaware

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2009-10-03T04:35:38.530-04:00

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2009-02-09T00:57:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-17T05:07:00.000-05:00

Speaking as a native Delawarean (and the people ma...

2008-10-28T21:09:00.000-04:00

Speaking as a native Delawarean (and the people making smart-assed remarks can kiss it), yeah Biden's seat is most definitely safe. People are used to Biden in the same way people are used to Castle. We know them, for the younger citizens we grew up with them in office and they represent the norm.

I would love to see Beau run and replace his dad.

Also...yes, Delaware is definitely going blue this year. =D

Heh...this installment really makes me hope you're...

2008-10-28T16:05:00.000-04:00

Heh...this installment really makes me hope you're going to go beyond the promised 50 states and include a "Road to 270" for DC (hey, we might not have representation, but we've got 3 electoral votes, dadgumit!). Because I literally think McCain has even less going for him here in DC than he does in Delaware. Literally.

In the last five or so elections, the Republican candidate got exactly 8% in DC. Literally. The Democrat got anywhere from 85 to 90. It's the corest of core, um, electoral divisions? And it's the reason there's so many "fake" Virginians ruining their good state. DCers moving further out and into VA.

Actually, Delaware was a slave state (literally!!)...

2008-10-28T15:58:00.000-04:00

Actually, Delaware was a slave state (literally!!).

PorridgeGun said... Gallup are really starting to ...

2008-10-28T15:34:00.000-04:00

PorridgeGun said...
Gallup are really starting to get on my tits, likewise the other daily trackers. But it does confirm, as I said yesterday, that Obama has had a significant drop-off across the board. The question is, WHY??? The Republican ticket is imploding, morale is low, yet nationally it's tightening. Nate is surely scaratching his head, slso. How McCain gets any bounce at this point is beyond me. I mean, 3%. WTF???

My guess is the fear of a democratic controlled house/senate/whitehouse...the notion that there will not be balanced control I think has 'scared' some independents back toward McCain even though they might not fully support him.

It's the reason I can come up with considering how pitiful his campaign has been.

Actually, let me amend that:Pessimistic: 291-247Re...

2008-10-28T15:29:00.001-04:00

Actually, let me amend that:

Pessimistic: 291-247
Realistic: 311-227
Optimistic: 364-174
Landslide optimistic: 393-145

Crist extends early voting to 12 hour shifts until...

2008-10-28T15:29:00.000-04:00

Crist extends early voting to 12 hour shifts until sunday.

He must be really unhappy with McCain.

"The polling history as a whole clearly shows that...

2008-10-28T15:28:00.000-04:00

"The polling history as a whole clearly shows that the 42% figure represents the impenetrable bottom of McCain's base, and Obama gained a full 3 points over his previous high figure. For the last two weeks, the tracks have been roughly parallel with today's graph showing an eight point spread and 6.5 spread of undecided.

Dr. Sam Wang over at PEC has an interesting article about "undecided" voters often having a subthreshold or latent decision already made.

It strikes me that this is what we are seeing in the national graph, and, that could we measure the latent decision, there would actually be an 8% bias in the "undecided" pool toward Obama that will reflect in a final result of 55.7% Obama and 44.3 for McCain."

http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/27/the-undecided-brain/

"Is that a joke? Care to elaborate?"It's an unconf...

2008-10-28T15:25:00.001-04:00

"Is that a joke? Care to elaborate?"

It's an unconfirmed rumor, but there are some legs to it.

Limbaugh fits the profile of a closeted gay man, he had a "mentor" in his early career who was openly gay and largely responsible for his career. He was fired in 1973 from a local Pittsburgh radio station, and there have been several accounts that the rumor around town was that he had been arrested in a known gay pickup spot for "pandering."

It could all just be urban legend, but the rumors have been around forever.

Some good stuff on 'undecides'...http://www.pollst...

2008-10-28T15:25:00.000-04:00

Some good stuff on 'undecides'...

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/late_deciders_in_recent_presid.php

Prediction:Popular vote:Obama 52.1McCain 46.2EV:Ob...

2008-10-28T15:24:00.000-04:00

Prediction:

Popular vote:

Obama 52.1
McCain 46.2

EV:

Obama wins.

Pessimistic: 291-247
Realistic: 311-227
Optimistic: 353-185
Landslide optimistic: 382-156

Sarah Palin calling for Sen. Stevens to resign.you...

2008-10-28T15:23:00.000-04:00

Sarah Palin calling for Sen. Stevens to resign.

you gotta watch out for 'biting the hand that feeds you'

palin was director of his 527, Ted Stevens Excellence in Public Service, Inc.;

and you all prob already know that
Stevens had been helpful to Palin during her run for governor, swooping in with a last moment endorsement. And the two filmed a campaign commercial together to highlight Stevens's endorsement of Palin during the 2006 race.

Shortly after Palin was announced as McCain's vice presidential pick, the ad was removed from her gubernatorial campaign web site. It remains available on YouTube.

prowerse

InkStain said... "Is there really a gay guy who li...

2008-10-28T15:19:00.000-04:00

InkStain said...
"Is there really a gay guy who like Limbaugh. Isn't that an oxymoron or, maybe ironic?"

Limbaugh himself is a closeted homosexual. There were some funny stories from his Pittsburgh DJ days.

Is that a joke? Care to elaborate?

@ericI'm even with you on Pennsylvania.Bonus predi...

2008-10-28T15:17:00.001-04:00

@eric

I'm even with you on Pennsylvania.

Bonus prediction: Obama will come closer to winning TX than McCain will come to winning PA.

Yes, jnorthrop. What's amazing is he's still with...

2008-10-28T15:17:00.000-04:00

Yes, jnorthrop. What's amazing is he's still with me since he's a hardcore practicing catholic and I'm an unapolagetic atheist. Actually, it's more surprising that I'm still with him, given my intense disdain for religion -- especially with my politics

Some folks in Ohio say the Joe The Plumber stuff h...

2008-10-28T15:16:00.004-04:00

Some folks in Ohio say the Joe The Plumber stuff has backfired in the state.

Be interesting to see what the polls are in a few days after the latest from Joe.

Joey said... PS... Stevens will collect $122,000 ...

2008-10-28T15:16:00.003-04:00

Joey said...
PS... Stevens will collect $122,000 a year in pension.

Not for very long. Dude's old. He snowmachined on some of the ice that's breaking off of Alaskan glaciers' ablation zones back when it was snow at the accumulation zones.

PeteKunt said...John McCain has connected with the...

2008-10-28T15:16:00.002-04:00

PeteKunt said...
John McCain has connected with the masses! She is a natural in those places where there are crap tables!

Spot on,

I sai hey babe take a walk on the wild side! McCain's had a sex op! October surpriseQ

I wasn't going to post anything (there is nothing ...

2008-10-28T15:16:00.001-04:00

I wasn't going to post anything (there is nothing more to say!) but my word verifier is "photedge."

Prediction:PV: Obama 51 McCain 48 Other 1EC: Obama...

2008-10-28T15:16:00.000-04:00

Prediction:

PV: Obama 51 McCain 48 Other 1

EC: Obama 306 McCain 232

new thread

2008-10-28T15:14:00.003-04:00

new thread

GAME CHANGER ALERT!!JOE THE PLUMBER ENDORSES MCCAI...

2008-10-28T15:14:00.002-04:00

GAME CHANGER ALERT!!

JOE THE PLUMBER ENDORSES MCCAIN!

Wow...that's shocking and really influential to voters.

Damn, and I already voted for Obama. Had I only known JTP, I'd have followed you to the gates of Hell.

'Cuz I'm a (word verification:) "reffecon."

Jeff NYC Dem said... "Unfortunately. He "will neve...

2008-10-28T15:14:00.001-04:00

Jeff NYC Dem said... "Unfortunately. He "will never vote for a national Democrat because your party hates our country and blames America first!". Also, he says he's a republican because he's not a single issue voter, whatever. That's what I'm up against. No nuance to his positions whatsoever. In other words he's like nearly every other Republican I know."

Too funny. I guess the country really is diverse.