Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Road to 270: Oklahoma

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2009-10-08T05:20:24.531-04:00

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2009-09-22T01:51:34.267-04:00

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2009-05-14T12:42:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-11T23:55:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-11T23:54:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-16T22:51:00.000-05:00

billy jack, it really is a testament to how amazin...

2008-08-21T17:56:00.000-04:00

billy jack, it really is a testament to how amazing this country is that we survived (even though we're in quite a few muddles), isn't it?

Man, Republicans are such an effing embarrassment....

2008-08-21T16:37:00.000-04:00

Man, Republicans are such an effing embarrassment. How we survived 8 years with a retarded President is a miracle. How any American can vote to return the Republic Party to the White House is an effin joke. The Republic Party has no incentive to correct their ways, as long as retards like "Pete Kent", "Jack Black", "Va Conservative", and other right-wing lunatics on this board keep voting for them.

Virginia Conservative,Obama himself was the ghost ...

2008-08-21T15:53:00.000-04:00

Virginia Conservative,

Obama himself was the ghost writer of Dreams of My Father.

On the Audacity of Hope, Obama was at least the head writer, if not the sole one.

On the other hand, McCain's books have been mostly written by Mark Salter. So McCain's books are more deserving of the phrase "ghostwritten."

To be fair to McCain, he was at the primary source for the material that Salter wrote. However, Obama also was the primary source for the material written for the Audacity of Hope (much of it written by himself) and Dreams of My Father (where he was the sole author).

VirCon: what law school did you go to? Nice to se...

2008-08-21T15:52:00.000-04:00

VirCon: what law school did you go to?

Nice to see some non-Razzy polling today. NV: Obama +1 (LV), and MN: Obama +10 (LV). Nate, if you're not some sort of shill for Razz's ridiculous manipulation, I expect you'll be modifying the numbers pronto?

Ooooooooooh, ouch ouch ouch, the HOUSES. Oh, man, that's a killer. And for those of you who indicated that it came from the Obama camp, McCone's "answer" was in response to a reporter's question. He must not have gotten THAT one in advance. Body blow! Damn! I also loved the response by the McClown camp: "frickin'"? Are you frickin' kidding me? Also, mention of arugula: check; mention of POW status: check.

[sound of poll numbers plummeting]

In VP news, it's Hillary or Al Gore.

Virginia Conservative,The ghost writer on Dreams o...

2008-08-21T15:43:00.000-04:00

Virginia Conservative,

The ghost writer on Dreams of My Father was Barack Obama himself.

As for the Audacity of Hope, it appears to Obama's staffers did some of the writing on the book, but most of the writing is Obama's. So Audacity of Hope was not really ghostwritten, but it has contributions from people other than Obama himself. Obama seems to have acted as the head writer on this book, rather than its sole author.

On the other hand, most of the writing on McCain's books was actually done by Mark Salter. So it appears McCain's books are more deserving of the description "ghostwritten".

To be fair to McCain, he was at least the primary source of the material that Salter actually typed out. However, the same can be said about Obama on the Audacity of Hope.

By the way, the explanation for Orange County, Cal...

2008-08-21T15:40:00.000-04:00

By the way, the explanation for Orange County, California, and the Central Valley of California, is the Okies who migrated there in the Dust Bowl years of the 1930s. Wherever Oklahoma goes, nastiness and ignorance follows.

lisalgreer-All politicians have their books ghostw...

2008-08-21T15:39:00.000-04:00

lisalgreer-

All politicians have their books ghostwritten.

President of the Harvard Law Review (or in any law school) is a POLITICAL not ACADEMIC position. Its how well you network more than how brilliant you are.

I can't see Rice winning this one unless Inhofe mu...

2008-08-21T15:38:00.000-04:00

I can't see Rice winning this one unless Inhofe murders a few children.

All he'd have to do is say they were gay children, and he'd get off. Now here's an idea: Obama's surrogates should play up McCain's adopted black children, just like Bush's surrogates did in 2000.

In racist states in the South, the argument would be that one way or the other there will be black people in the White House so you might as well vote on other issues.

Better yet, get some pictures of Cindy McCain with those black kids and pass them around. The "low information voters" that the Republican just loooooooove to exploit could draw their own conclusions.

Virginia, don't make me laugh. You are kidding, ri...

2008-08-21T15:23:00.000-04:00

Virginia, don't make me laugh. You are kidding, right? I don't think McCain was ever head of the Harvard Law Review. Yeesh.

If the colors of the bars are fixed based on the n...

2008-08-21T15:21:00.000-04:00

If the colors of the bars are fixed based on the nature of the issue (blue bars are "Obama issues"), and the size of the bar indicates how good/bad the issue is (short = bad news for, long = good), it would be much more intuitive for the bar to function as -/+ from a neutral midpoint and extend out to the left (negative) or right (positive) based on how the issue plays out in that that state.

BTW who was the ghostwriter of Obama's books? Was ...

2008-08-21T14:43:00.001-04:00

BTW who was the ghostwriter of Obama's books? Was it Axelrod?

Obama tip: It's NOT Joe Biden!"I try to surround m...

2008-08-21T14:43:00.000-04:00

Obama tip: It's NOT Joe Biden!

"I try to surround myself with people who are about getting the job done, and who are not about ego, self—aggrandizement, getting their names in the press..."

That pretty much eliminates Joe Biden right there. He's as much about getting his name in the press as Mitt "did you catch my good side?" Romney.

Looks like by process of elimination, Evan Bayh. Blah. Color me not impressed at all.

http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/
08/obamas_vp_the_candidate_drops.html

"Okay, so the first qualification he mentions is someone who won't be all that interested in getting his or her name in the media. That would seem a high bar for the famously voluble Joe Biden to clear.

I think people will see that I'm not afraid to have folks around me who complement my strengths...

Obama is both gifted and precise in the way he uses language. Here, interestingly, the word he chooses is "complement," not "supplement" or "augment." This would suggest that this choice will be someone who has experience or expertise that Obama himself lacks, rather than a pick--such as Bill Clinton's of Al Gore in 1992--that reinforces his message. My guess here is that is not good news for either Governor Kathleen Sebelius or Tim Kaine. Though both have executive experience that he doesn't, their chief political assets are much the same as Obama's, in that they bring an ability to blur party lines.

I'm not a believer in a government of yes—men. I think one of the failures of the early Bush Administration was being surrounded by people who were unwilling to deliver bad news, or who were prone to simply feed the president information that confirmed his own preconceptions.

This may well be the most telling part of his answer. It sounds as though he is offering a rationale for picking someone who has disagreed with him in the past on something big, and the Iraq War immediately leaps to mind.

All that put together, if I were to guess who it would be based strictly on what Obama himself has said, I would say the pick is either Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana (low profile, both executive and foreign policy experience, but a supporter of the Iraq War), or a surprise whose name has not been circulating on the pundits' short lists."

I think we can safely eliminate all the dark horses (except possibly Reed) because they provide nothing. That's WHY they are dark horses.

yiannis-Ask Obama how many states there are in the...

2008-08-21T14:42:00.000-04:00

yiannis-

Ask Obama how many states there are in the Union.

McCain made millions from his books, the same way Obama did. Independently of his wife.

John said, "Obama actually earned his money" He p...

2008-08-21T14:41:00.000-04:00

John said, "Obama actually earned his money" He put out two, basically ghost written, ecocentric why I am savior of the world, biographies for which he recieves millions in royalties. Explain to me how this is him having actually earned his money.

VA Cons. With liberal love from me to you:1) I don...

2008-08-21T14:40:00.000-04:00

VA Cons.

With liberal love from me to you:

1) I don't remember how many houses I have

2) i don't remember how I voted on female contraception

3) I don't remember that Iran trains Shiite not Sunni (3x)

4) I don't remember that tax cuts in a time of war offended my conscience

5) I don't remember that I don't know much about the economy

6) I don't remember saying that Americans are better off than they were during the Clinton administration

Its not happening today.Its not Hillary.

2008-08-21T14:28:00.001-04:00

Its not happening today.

Its not Hillary.

We're all just waiting for the VP selections, and ...

2008-08-21T14:28:00.000-04:00

We're all just waiting for the VP selections, and there's no point commenting on Oklahoma. It will be the last state to catch up to the 20th century, sometime around 2030.

As for the VP pick, I laid out the exact same case for Hillary as Nate did several days ago: viz: all the negatives about Hillary unifying Republicans are out the door now. They're unified in total denial that they were in any way responsible for all the failure and misery of the Bush era by voting for him twice.

But, there are all the unknown Bill scandals waiting to explode like an uncleared minefield. That's why Obama will NEVER pick Hillary. There's just too much ordinance out there waiting to go off and no way to predict when you're going to step on a mine.

"McCain will follow every policy that Bush did. Therefore, McCain = Bush,

But, McCain will just do everything better. So McCain does NOT equal Bush."

That's Republican logic for you.

QED.

I wanted to get my Hillary argument in before Obama picks somebody OTHER than Hillary later today or tomorrow.

Oh SNAP. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Axelro...

2008-08-21T14:13:00.001-04:00

Oh SNAP.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Axelrod_(political_consultant)

Note---this is the gentleman behind the Obama phenomenon, and...well...he's not a Gentile. Sorry McCainiacs. :(

Game over, Obama wins. It's all about surrounding yourself with the Chosen People.

Could someone spare a couple of minutes to answer ...

2008-08-21T14:13:00.000-04:00

Could someone spare a couple of minutes to answer my questions?

One. Is the only measure of a presidential poll the final result. I can do that by averaging the final polls.

Two.Does not the MOE of error make every poll reasonably accurate?

Three. Does this blog owner work for Rasmussen, as several have suggested. Is not Rasmussen a far right ideologue?

Four. About three weeks ago Rasmussen had McCain ahead in Ohio by ten points. Now he has it less and says McCain is gaining. Am I missing something?

Five. As an Oklahoma resident let me assure all that Obama has about as much chance to win here as I do, at 76, to win the Olympic gymnastics. Jack M. H. To distinquish from other "Jacks".