Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Begich Goes Into Lead by Three Votes

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2009-10-02T05:53:39.780-04:00

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2009-04-16T04:48:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T21:46:00.000-05:00

PeteKent: Much the same can be said about Obama's ...

2008-11-13T22:11:00.000-05:00

PeteKent: Much the same can be said about Obama's Birth Certificate. Why not release the long form.

That doesn't address the point. When a complaint is raised, it's not an answer to say "the other person did it too." That response simply doesn't address the complaint as a matter of simple logic.

Your comment was about Sullivan's criticism about Palin, which you claim was unfair. Your response is not relevant to that issue, and so Sullivan's question remains unanswered: why didn't she just release the records, as the campaign said they would and then didn't? And if they didn't do it, isn't Sullivan's skepticism justified, even if the allegation is eventually shown to be unfounded? How about answering the question at hand?

As for Obama's birth certificate, I haven't followed the issue. But apparently what was released is sufficient to show natural born citizenship. See http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/citizen.asp

"His point is that all these rumors could easily b...

2008-11-13T16:34:00.000-05:00

"His point is that all these rumors could easily be disproved if Palin's medical records were released, which is fairly standard procedure for major party candidates running for president and vice president"

Much the same can be said about Obama's Birth Certificate. Why not release the long form.

Ginny: google Occams razor.

PeteKentFor the sake of leaving a response should ...

2008-11-13T13:38:00.000-05:00

PeteKent

For the sake of leaving a response should anyone return to this thread.

Your comments are an excellent example of how closed minded people fail to recognize the advantage of listening to the viewpoints of people you have differences of opinion with. Sullivan comes up with many things I don't agree with - especially the idea that Bush's brand of conservatism is intellectually and politcally superior to anything.

The Trig controversy for me had a more important aspect that I thought was poorly covered. I'm an RN, in 3 decades I have done a lot of critical care nursing, including some in prenatal. As in women who are hospitalized to control their premature labor as long as possible. I worked with a lot of NICU nurses who had universally learned NICU is a poor answer to prematurity. The fact that Sarah took an airline flight TO Texas at that point of an at risk pregnancy (her age + multiple pregnancies +Trig's Downs Syndrome) was the first HUH?. To have ignored the possible leaking of amniotic fluid (It takes a very simple and quick test to verify it. PlusTrig could have been checked by fetal monitoring.) was unbelievably irresponsible. Then she flies back to Alaska. A lot of my critical care work is cardiovascular. That system is VERY pressure based and sensitive to the barometric changes in flight or changing altitude enough (we get a lot of flatlanders touring the CO Rockies who develop cardio-pulmonary problems above 7000 feet). Just to be sure you connect these dots: pregnancy places a significant burden on the heart and vascular system, the risks involved are a big reason that late term abortions do have a place in medical care to the mother. Then she drives PAST the hospital with the state's highest level NICU (I worked in that hospital from '84-92) 45 minutes to a local hospital that does not have any form of NICU so a premie needing such a facility would have needed to be medivaced back to Anchorage. That was my WHY would you do this unless... consideration. I didn't particularly care except for the example she set and was actually praised for getting on the plane in labor. I emailed the American Association of Obs and Gyns suggesting they might want to issue a statement on how risky this was.

As far as my being influenced by the MSM on that - I never read their stuff. I ran across the story at dKos and rebuked the investigation there. I get my news and information primarily from the internet - mostly because I can chase down anything I question immediately, either from the link or Google.

I also read a lot and the highly referenced books I choose are based as much as possible on recomendations from experts, and if political bias is possible, I look for recommendations from both sides.

I was raised in the Unitarian Church which does not indoctrinate, it teaches thinking and a responsible search for truth and meaning. My father, a PhD in physical chemistry worked R&D in building materials, developing 3 patented products during his career. R&D is not ivory tower, it's competitive. His brother, with an MS in Physics, was part of the Johns Hopkins' team that developed the Polaris, Poseiden and Trident missles for the nuclear subs. Used to fly all over the world to meet the subs when they came into port for troubleshooting. Growing up with these two imposing scientific evaluation on just about anything you uttered, not to mention having the incredible woman who raised them living in our house from age 4 to 9, I learned to question, search the facts, look for what is missing and not open my mouth without a lot of confidence in all of those. Oh, time for my standard warning: I have TWO degrees in BS.

I developed my opinion of Sarah's suitability for office by listening to her answer questions and speak. My parents were politically involved and I became very active in AK. I know a lot of the political forces there and the mindset of the Palin type fundies.

In the health care field, you learn to assess the competence of a professional by how quickly, easily, thoroughly and correctly they talk about symptoms, diagnostic testing, diseases and treatments. It works quite as well in politics. People who can take just about any question and answer it well - even if you don't agree with the conclusions- show the breadth and depth of their knowledge base plus their intellectual ability to process the information, come to conclusions and reasonable action plans, are viable candidates for office.

All Sarah could do was talk around the questions - the same way AK GOP candidates usually do, and plenty of others in the lower 48 as well. One of my senators, the GOP one, has been rated among the five worst. No surprise. That potential was clearer than crystal during the campaign I was here for.

Her ability to speak rationally, concisely, and substantively is so poor, it is an embarassment to listen to her.

If you still think I am biased and easily swayed by the mainstream media, I would suggest you check your own perceptual grid. Might also want to read "Lapdogs".

get motivatiehttp://www.genuinedreams.do.am

2008-11-13T10:37:00.000-05:00

get motivatie

http://www.genuinedreams.do.am

What completely soured me on him was his spreading...

2008-11-13T09:02:00.000-05:00

What completely soured me on him was his spreading of the rumors that Trig was actually Bristol's baby that first weekend of Palin's selection. That sort of rumor-mongering has no place in hgiher echelons of poltical discourse and was particularly shocking coming from the Editor of The Atlantic.

First he's not "the Editor." He's one of many "Senior Editors."
http://www.theatlantic.com/a/masthead.mhtml

Second, his point (at least these days) is not about "who is the mommy?" His point is that all these rumors could easily be disproved if Palin's medical records were released, which is fairly standard procedure for major party candidates running for president and vice president. And that her campaign said records would be released weeks ago. And that they haven't been (even though Palin seems to assert that they have).

At this point, the issue not about rumor-mongering. It's about basic information about our public officials running for our highest national offices. Palin could have and still can dispel the rumors and expose Sullivan for a fraud with a snap of the fingers. Since she could do so, I can understand Sullivan wondering why she doesn't.

" PeteKent said... Ginny,Palin is a dolt."PeteKent...

2008-11-13T07:11:00.000-05:00

" PeteKent said...
Ginny,
Palin is a dolt."

PeteKent, I agree with you.
Palin is a dolt.
Thank you.
Sherwick.

Ginny,I used to have a dose of respect for Sulliva...

2008-11-13T05:55:00.000-05:00

Ginny,

I used to have a dose of respect for Sullivan when he came out for Bush and was willing to embrace the intellectual and political superiority of conservatism. it showed a apacity for something oither than relfexive thought.

What completely soured me on him was his spreading of the rumors that Trig was actually Bristol's baby that first weekend of Palin's selection. That sort of rumor-mongering has no place in hgiher echelons of poltical discourse and was particularly shocking coming from the Editor of The Atlantic.

That the story was picked up and run by MSNBC, CNN, the NYTs and other maintream outlets was in fact "the worst part" of "media complicity in the farce". That you were left with the impression that Palin is a dolt is testament to the lengths that they went to to destory her.

That you would be willing to swallow it whole simply betrays your bias.

1sunnyday,I think that is a darn good idea. Anothe...

2008-11-13T01:40:00.000-05:00

1sunnyday,

I think that is a darn good idea. Another thought came to me while reading your comments. Sarah wouldn't care about being at the bottom of the Senate totem pole. She could do very little except bills that won't go anywhere to show the base she will fight for them, talk show appearances, and sit by while a ghost writer does her book.

Personally I think Andrew Sullivan has a better perspective on Palin than Paglia. It became quite obvious early on that whatever her IQ, she hadn't used it enough to become VP, let alone POTUS. I could have discussed foreign policy, economics, health care and the economy better than she did. (I could have cited all the papers I read regularly on line, the three books I'm reading and at least a half dozen I've read in the past 6 months) And there is no way I am qualified to be even a Congress person. Doesn't have time to read because of all the Kids?. Wow, what a concept.

As Sullivan points out, the worst part was the media complicity in the farce. Not that we are shocked or anything.

Put up a date time we'll meet at the Loon in downt...

2008-11-13T00:35:00.000-05:00

Put up a date time we'll meet at the Loon in downtown Minneapolis, I'll even buy the 3 of you each a beer!

Begich needs to increas his 814 vote lead by about...

2008-11-13T00:26:00.000-05:00

Begich needs to increas his 814 vote lead by about 600-700 to avoid a recount if 0.5% is the trigger under Alaska law for an automatic recount.

Alaska (7:33pm update)Begich: 132196 (46.81%)Stevn...

2008-11-13T00:23:00.001-05:00

Alaska (7:33pm update)

Begich: 132196 (46.81%)
Stevns: 131382 (46.53%)
Total counted: 282383
Margin: Begich +814 (0.28%)

NEW NUMBERS:Begich 132196Stevens 131382Begich is u...

2008-11-13T00:23:00.000-05:00

NEW NUMBERS:

Begich 132196
Stevens 131382

Begich is up 814 votes!!!

@Larry: Yup---the official update was posted 5 min...

2008-11-13T00:22:00.000-05:00

@Larry: Yup---the official update was posted 5 minutes after midnight ET, and shows

Begich 132,196
Stevens 131,382

difference 814.

If () this was from about half the remaining votes, and () the uncounted half are from areas favoring Begich even more, then the difference may grow by another 4,000+ and thus pass 5,000, for about a 2% margin of victory. That would start to get in the ballpark of the polls---especially if the weather depressed turnout in the outlying non-GOP-stronghold areas.

WV "jambac"---goes a little with my Marley "I-Rasta" above, and quite the opposite weather!

Alaska (7:33pm update)Begich: 132196Stevns: 131382...

2008-11-13T00:18:00.000-05:00

Alaska (7:33pm update)

Begich: 132196
Stevns: 131382
Total counted: 282383

@PhilOops, thanks! Consider him an exemplar; I kn...

2008-11-13T00:16:00.000-05:00

@Phil

Oops, thanks! Consider him an exemplar; I know there are a few out there. I stand by my argument nonetheless. Accepting incompetence or corruption for the sake of a majority is a slippery slope and we've had too much of it with DeLay, Grover Norquist, et al. Imitation would be flattery; let's not go there.

I know I'll sound stupid for saying this, but Stev...

2008-11-13T00:06:00.000-05:00

I know I'll sound stupid for saying this, but Stevens isn't dead yet. He still has his appeal and from what I've read, he has a pretty firm case for getting evidence thrown out for gov. misconduct. Stevens is a good guy I think and I hope he gets reelected

Shannyn Moore at Huff Post reports that the DOE is...

2008-11-13T00:05:00.000-05:00

Shannyn Moore at Huff Post reports that the DOE is done for the day and Begich is 836 votes ahead. She's done the best reporting I've seen on the Alaska situation, so I believe she's probably right.

"This might be a good time to mention to readers t...

2008-11-13T00:01:00.000-05:00

"This might be a good time to mention to readers that FiveThirtyEight will be on the ground in Minnesota and Georgia in the coming weeks to cover the recount/runoff."

Why not Alaska???

@Dennis580I think it is absurd to suggest that Nat...

2008-11-12T23:58:00.002-05:00

@Dennis580

I think it is absurd to suggest that Nate would end up with egg on his face if the people of Alaska voted for a FELON!
There would have been culpability to give to the pollsters, who obviously had trouble sampling the state (don't blame Nate, he works with what he gets) And there would have been a lot of egg on the faces of Alaskan voters.
Nate absolutely rocked on the way is model used raw data to make predictions so just go away with your pety little 100% complaints.