Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: On Likely Voters and the Long Tail

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2009-10-08T06:49:14.858-04:00

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2009-09-11T07:53:41.465-04:00

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2009-04-06T12:57:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:29:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:28:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-15T21:27:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-08T20:38:00.000-05:00

It would be useful to know exactly how each pollst...

2008-08-07T23:57:00.000-04:00

It would be useful to know exactly how each pollster attempts to define "likely voter." Some hints:

Gallup is forthcoming. http://www.gallup.com/poll/109135/Who-Likely-Voters-When-They-Matter.aspx
They throw out the lower 40% of the scores on their likely voter screen. That is right now a 3 item questionaire, and includes "how often do you vote?" Newer voters (young and/or newly involved such as many Hispanic voters) are overrepresented in that 40%. It will later be their traditional 7 item screen, as covered by Blumenthal: http://www.gallup.com/poll/109135/Who-Likely-Voters-When-They-Matter.aspx
This one includes three questions about past voting history. Following into Blumenthal's next installments you see that the likely voter screen introduces a fair amount of volatility which is less reflective of changes in opinion as in changes in who gets included as a likely voter.

Note: Rasmussen also uses past voting history as a likely voter screen but then weights by party ID. They are consequently less volatile.

In past elections actual turnout has been somewhat between the GOP leaning LV result and the Dem leaning RV result.

My proposition: Likely voter screens are likely to be the major bugaboo of this election cycle. They are unlikely to account well for changes in voter behavior already evident during the primary process - high involvement, high enthusiasm, and high turnout among newer voters - the young and many Hispanic voters. These effects will be amplified by organization on the ground (see the most recent entry here) and have their greatest effect in heavily Hispanic states. Pollsters would do us all a tremendous service by reporting their results both with and without their likely voter screens on.

Virginia Conservative: Clinton didn't keep taxes a...

2008-08-07T21:25:00.000-04:00

Virginia Conservative: Clinton didn't keep taxes at around 70% like Carter did, and he CUT the capital gains rate which helped strengthen the economy. Obama wants to raise it in the name of "fairness", even if it hurts the economy!

Obama's income tax proposals would not raise income taxes for anyone above where they were in the Clinton years. Nor (I believe) would capital gains taxes be any higher. Consequently, if the Clinton-era tax rates were not high enough to deter economic growth, neither would an Obama tax code.

One could argue that 1990s growth would have been even better without the Clinton tax hikes. Or one could argue that because those rates helped balance the budget, they reduced interest rates, generated a strong dollar, and further boosted growth. Since we can't play the 90s over again to do a test, why believe on story over the other? (By contrast, one could say that the recession we're in would be even worse without the Bush tax cuts, or one could say they've sapped the governments ability to provide further stimulus, diverted revenues to debt service, weakened the dollar, and helped create high gas prices.)

But we do know that the tax cut crowd said in the early 90s that any tax hikes would kill the delicate economic recovery, and that clearly did not happen. I just find it hard to believe that the economy would be so sensitive regarding whether the top tax bracket is 35% or 39.6%. I didn't see anyone deterred from getting into the top bracket because of the higher rate.

Oh, another canard: tax cutters like to point out that when taxes are cut, revenue goes up. But that's true when taxes go up as well. The truth is that the tax cuts are usually outweighed by population growth, economic growth, and inflation. Tinkering around with income tax rates by a few percentage points is usually easily overcome by these other factors, so saying revenues went up doesn't say much about the economic efficacy of tax cuts.

In case anyone is wondering how to respond to some...

2008-08-07T21:06:00.000-04:00

In case anyone is wondering how to respond to some of the Republicans on this website (the Republicans that state opinion is fact), Adam is a fine example. Kill them with facts until they have nothing useful left to say. Nicely done Adam. For a while you had 3-4 of them dancing at the same time.

Oh, and Matt J.H., I think you need to step away from the computer for a good week or two. I think you'll feel better.

God, why can't there be any non-ignorant republica...

2008-08-07T19:55:00.000-04:00

God, why can't there be any non-ignorant republicans commenting on this site? This is getting ridiculus.

"Anyway you slice it, Obama will top out at 48-49%...

2008-08-07T19:47:00.000-04:00

"Anyway you slice it, Obama will top out at 48-49% of the vote."

Assuming that Barr and Nader gets less that 3%, it might work.

However, every 4-way poll that I have seen shows McCain loses.

"Can we ban Jack Black already?"Please NO! He's ke...

2008-08-07T19:38:00.000-04:00

"Can we ban Jack Black already?"

Please NO! He's keeping me informed of who's gonna win the 2004 election.

Maybe Kerry can pull it out this time.

This election comes down to 1 thing. If it's about...

2008-08-07T19:24:00.000-04:00

This election comes down to 1 thing. If it's about McCain and Bush, Obama wins in a landslide. If its about Obama, it's a toss/up, with a slight edge to Obama.

Right now, its all about Obama.

"Why isn't he further ahead?"
"People don't trust him"
"Has he got the experience?"
"He's not like us"
"Who is he"
"He's only a celebrity"
"He's an empty suit"
"Can he lead"

John Kerry who is a legitimate war hero allowed a draft dodging coward who's daddy protected him, turn Kerry into an American hating communist. - When your opponent questions your manhood in front of the entire country, and you do not respond, then the voters are left to believe you are a coward.

Barack Obama who rose from nothing, with a Mom on welfare, and poor grandparents in Kansas, getting dragged all over the world with no father to look up. Who just finished paying off his student loans after working his way through Harvard, who is beloved by many across the world who respect his leadership -

has let the son of admirals who finished near last in his navy class, who has 8 homes , a billionaire heiress wife , with servants galore, who spends $500,000 a month on cloths, who couldn't get 100 people to show up to a rally, and has the leadership skills of a turnip, turn Obama into an elite celebrity who is as vacuous as Paris Hilton, and Paris Hilton responded better than the man hoping to be president.

You don't see the problem?

realistxxx,Obama said that America is no longer "w...

2008-08-07T19:21:00.000-04:00

realistxxx,

Obama said that America is no longer "what it once was."

The "disparaging America" is the Rush Limbaugh/dittohead spin on it.

Does anyone know where I can get the history of th...

2008-08-07T19:10:00.000-04:00

Does anyone know where I can get the history of the Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll for 2004? Something like http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history . but instead for 2004.

NJ_Moderate said...I agree Matthew, Obama seems to...

2008-08-07T19:08:00.000-04:00

NJ_Moderate said...

I agree Matthew, Obama seems to making more egregious gaffes each day. His comment disparaging the United States (in Indiana of all places) pretty much will kiss this state goodbye. In addition, this comment will be played over and over again in the fall. Is it too late to re-consider and nominate Hillary? At least she wouldn't make W look like a coherent, smooth-talking individual by comparison.

-----------------

Umm... do you have a link or quote on this outrageous comment or are you just trolling (again).

I just searched LexisNexis and found nothing in the news about this earth shattering quote that will replayed again and again.

I agree Matthew, Obama seems to making more egregi...

2008-08-07T18:55:00.000-04:00

I agree Matthew, Obama seems to making more egregious gaffes each day. His comment disparaging the United States (in Indiana of all places) pretty much will kiss this state goodbye. In addition, this comment will be played over and over again in the fall. Is it too late to re-consider and nominate Hillary? At least she wouldn't make W look like a coherent, smooth-talking individual by comparison.

The state of the race today is Obama 46%, McCain 44%. The CBS and AP/Ispos polls were too skewed towards Democrats (Dem affiliation will be 5 - 7% higher not 12-14%) so the Gallup/Rasmussen polls are a good barometer. About 2% of the voters will not vote for either candidate so it leaves about 8% of the populace remaining. Most of these people will tilt to the Republican side in the fall but are upset with McCain's moderate and pragmatic record (i.e. he is not a 'true' conservative) or are Hillary voters who despise Obama but can't bring themselves to vote for McCain. Anyway you slice it, Obama will top out at 48-49% of the vote.

Can we ban Jack Black already? We already know wha...

2008-08-07T18:54:00.000-04:00

Can we ban Jack Black already? We already know what he's going to say every time, and contributes absolutely nothing.

""I believe that this "undecided vote" will break ...

2008-08-07T18:41:00.000-04:00

""I believe that this "undecided vote" will break heavily for McCain.

If you are not with Obama yet you will still not be with him in November. He's peaked, he's never closed the deal, he's got nothing left to sell you on.""

Obama doesn't have to sell people on anything. If a random voter walks into the booth not even knowing who is running, they're about 11% more likely to pick the 'generic Democrat' than the 'generic Republican'. You can look it up.

It's McCain that's got to do the selling job, either selling himself as good or Obama as evil. There's a significant percentage of the population that still thinks of the election as "that old guy" versus "that black guy", and they probably aren't too sure which one is the Democrat. Another, even larger segment of the populations still thinks that Obama's a Muslim.

If you think undecideds are going to break for McCain because they see your pom-poms, you're going to be sorely dissappointed. A lot of them are Clinton supporters, and they'll break for Obama no matter what happens in the future. The rest will wait until the debates to make a decision, and more power to them.

Adam:Thanks for saving me the work of responding t...

2008-08-07T18:15:00.000-04:00

Adam:

Thanks for saving me the work of responding to the troll.

Matt, it seems like Drew Western missed all of the...

2008-08-07T18:08:00.000-04:00

Matt, it seems like Drew Western missed all of the speaches where Obama defines McCain as just more of Bush. That means that Obama is covering two of the narratives mentioned: his narrative and what he is saying about his opponent. Perhaps there are better ways to fight this campaign, but Drew Western is ignoring what Obama has been trying to do.

I have been called twice by national pollsters. Bo...

2008-08-07T18:03:00.000-04:00

I have been called twice by national pollsters. Both times the calls were with a live pollster.

Both times I was asked if I was a registered voter (yes). I was asked to select a percent chance I would vote (90-100%). I was asked to select race (white), income range and education level. I was asked gender (female).

Both times when I selected my age group, immediately the person conducting the call said, "Oh! I reached my quota for your group. I can't ask you any more questions."

My attitude? Beware purported demographic breakdowns. This old white woman voted Republican most of her life. This old white woman and all of her female friends, spread across 10 states, are adamant Obama supporters. In addition, within our individual circles of friends, are even more Obamacans. There is no spin available to McCain or the GOP that will change our votes in November.

Nate - this is a fantastic site. I have been a consistent reader for months.

Matt JH is a classic concern troll in the worst se...

2008-08-07T17:54:00.000-04:00

Matt JH is a classic concern troll in the worst sense of the term.

So the talking point now moves from Obama is all message and no substance... Hope, change but just words... to Obama has no message?

The articles linked say nothing to this new "problem".

Ummmm, OK, Matt, whatever you say.

Oh brother ... It's one of those poor pitiful me m...

2008-08-07T17:47:00.001-04:00

Oh brother ... It's one of those poor pitiful me me me's...versus the whole damn world.

DarienCrow said @ 1:29 PM

"I was around when Carter was in office with his dem controlled congress and it was the worst time in my lifetime. If the Fed rate goes up into high double digits like it did under him I will lose everything. You will only lose bragging rights. So yes I am worried."

I too was around. Here in California I hedged my investments heavily in the then newly developing environmental based energy saving industries. Not only have the investments made me a tidy lifetime income, they have also positively effected the energy savings for the entire country that is still trying to catch up.

You reap what you sow. If you plant ice you're gonna harvest wind. And I make a tidy income from your wind, too.

And as DarienCrow also posted @ 2:03 PM

"I truly believe we could do a better job than all these people we have elected to do it for us."

Visit my little site and you'll see I don't disagree, although maybe my realization came a little earlier in life, like 1966...

Jean Q. Publique @ Silly as it Seems