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2009-02-15T22:09:00.000-05:00

Read the Steve Huntley in today’s Chicago Sun Time...

2008-08-12T20:42:31.574-04:00

Read the Steve Huntley in today’s Chicago Sun Times Very good statement of the state of play re Georgia. http://www.suntimes.com/news/huntley/1102552,CST-EDT-hunt12.article Pick it up off Real Clear Politics.

On the Georgian War, Obama showed no leadership. He basically followed the lead of the President Bush and John McCain.

McCain in particular showed leadership on this. While Bush seemed to squander the opportunity to confront Putin in Beijing, McCain got out in front and condemned the Russians for their naked act of aggression against our democratic ally and vowed to make them pay, a sentiment echoed at the Bush administration. And a couple of days later by the Obama campaign.

Obama was lead by McCain on this.

He got himself schooled.

Ready to lead?

I disagree with ClarkJeffrey regarding the likelih...

2008-08-12T09:18:13.607-04:00

I disagree with ClarkJeffrey regarding the likelihood that the October surprise will be worse for McCain than Obama.

The stuff that the Clinton's had on Obama, if it existed (the drug use, the homosexual liasons, the whitey tape) were all such bombshells that throwing them would have been as destructive on Clinton as Obama and would have served to destroy the party.

The Republicans, if these allegations are true, will have no such compunction. October 23 would look like a good release date.

Oh and the Hillary sponsored coup at the DNC story...

2008-08-11T20:35:50.046-04:00

Oh and the Hillary sponsored coup at the DNC storyline is so absurd, I can't believe some people take it seriously.

Oh and the Hillary sponsored coup at the DNC story...

2008-08-11T20:35:23.902-04:00

Oh and the Hillary sponsored coup at the DNC storyline is so absurd, I can't believe some people take it seriously.

I was just reading the earlier posts about the pos...

2008-08-11T20:34:30.693-04:00

I was just reading the earlier posts about the possibility of an October Surprise.

\The Republicans on this board seem to be convinced that McCain is holding good oppo research in his back pocket and will have a great Oct Surprise while simultaneously saying "if Obama had anything on McCain, he would have used it already"

I don't quite get the logic behind this. I think there is a reasonable chance of an October surprise coming out on either of the candidates. I do think its slightly higher something will come out on McCain than Obama. The logic behind this is if any primary opponent found it, they would have used it. Hillary had considerably more money to do research than Romney and Huckabee. She also had more time and less opponents. If Romney had to do oppo on Huck, Rudy, Fred and McCain. The only real point he had to release it was pre-Super Tuesday, but if he did release it, it might have benefited Huck more than him. Hillary had plenty of money. She had plenty of time to dig something up and she had plenty of opportunities for releases.

Altogether, something could come out on either but I don't think it will.

Wolfson's assertion strikes me as absurd. Especia...

2008-08-11T20:33:42.489-04:00

Wolfson's assertion strikes me as absurd. Especially early in the primary season when Hillary was thought to be inevitable, many of the votes for both Obama and Edwards were probably, at least in part, votes for "not Clinton." And Edwards and Obama did in fact appeal to many of the same voters. (Even before the Edwards scandal, I doubted that Edwards would be all that strong a VP candidate for Obama because they appeared to be too much alike -- the same strengths and the same weaknesses.)

Early on in the primaries, I was torn between Edwards and Obama, preferring both of them to Clinton. And I know of several other people who felt the same way.

Wolfson's remarks strike me as, at best, an effort to cast blame on someone else for his candidate's loss, and at worst, an effort to re-open primary divisions right before the convention. Very sad either way. I remember during the primaries, when my blood pressure would start rising at something Wolfson had just said, I'd take a breath and remind myself: "He's a Democrat too -- we'll be on the same side soon enough." How unfortunate that that appears not to be true.

Hmm...2nd choice.... well, for all those other nom...

2008-08-11T20:08:46.322-04:00

Hmm...2nd choice.... well, for all those other nomination contenders Obama was the 2nd choice (Edwards, Richardson, Dodd, and Kucinich suggested his caucus people to vote for Obama but made no official endorsement - oh and Biden thought Obama was articulate and clean). Oh, and the statistical evidence from Nate is great, as always.
Howard Wolfson is one of those people who believe in their own invincibility, their own position of power in the shadows and that if reality doesnt agree with their opinion it´s reality that has to change.

The Virginia poll is now the 3rd SUSA poll in a row slightly weighted against Obama´s subgroups. I really respected them for their primary polls - I learned the hard way that they had their numbers right - in West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico. But honestly, I can´t believe that a campaign that is aimed and THIS efficient at turnout increase will lead to smaller turnout in especially those subgroups that their candidate is most appealing to.

I have concluded that this is all part of an elabo...

2008-08-11T19:25:13.181-04:00

I have concluded that this is all part of an elaborate game being played by the Clintons. They are fighting perhaps for the Vice Presidency, but more significantly, I think they believe they can wrest the nomination away from Obama.

I strongly believed, as did many others, that Obama would pick his VEEP last week. That he did not is evidence to me that he is still holding it out as a bargaining chip in a very high stakes game.

Obama is said to have played poker with lobbyists back in Illinois. Those are freindly games where he was allowed to win. Bill and Hill will not be so easy to best.

Believe I commented at the time that the fact Edwa...

2008-08-11T18:07:00.898-04:00

Believe I commented at the time that the fact Edwards was not effectively eliminated in Iowa was a god-send for Clinton. Everybody who wanted Clinton had already migrated toward her in the primary. She was the presumptive favorite; the rest of the vote was to some degree not-Clinton. Her best chance of winning the primary early was to keep the not-Clinton vote split for as long as possible. Therefore the biggest danger to her was an early collapse of Edwards' candidacy.

The Wolfson debate is a hypothetical wrapped in a ...

2008-08-11T16:57:54.116-04:00

The Wolfson debate is a hypothetical wrapped in a maybe wrapped in a possibility.

The data presented are silent on how the second choice preferences of Edwards' voters broke out between Clinton and Obama, so we can speculate that the overall breakout showing HRC third would hold but we can't know. We also can never know what the dynamic of the race without Edwards would have been. Would Clinton indeed have gone for an early knockout of Obama instead of holding back? We can't know. Did Edwards drive up Hillary's negatives to Obama's advantage? Maybe, but to what extent and effect? We can't know.

My take away from this dialogue is that Wolfson should have kept his mouth shut but that the data don't allow us to draw any conclusions one way or the other. The political takeaway, as a matter of opinion and not of fact, is that Edwards didn't do the process any favors by entering the race under false pretenses that would have eliminated him had they been exposed in a more timely manner.

Dario-He's too loose with facts that are consequen...

2008-08-11T16:15:18.261-04:00

Dario-
He's too loose with facts that are consequential to the discourse and that are easily refuted/confirmed. Unlike Judas_priest, I don't know what kind of poster that is, but "good" it ain't. It's a f(r)ee country, however, so he can do whatever he wants.

Nataraj: You are right. Thank you, My apologies ...

2008-08-11T16:09:11.671-04:00

Nataraj: You are right. Thank you, My apologies to everyone. I should not be feeding the trolls as this makes me a troll myself I suppose. I will keep future posts to the topic or shut up.

CNN is conpletely lost. MSNBC was killing it in el...

2008-08-11T16:04:28.225-04:00

CNN is conpletely lost. MSNBC was killing it in election coverage under Russert (still is) and its coverage lacks depth. It is little better than the nightly newscast.

Oh, and quit laying off experienced people CNN, you need them!

CNN's Election Center is leading with this sensati...

2008-08-11T15:59:51.346-04:00

CNN's Election Center is leading with this sensationalized debate tonight. Ridiculous. Campbell Brown will actually be debating whether someone else could be in the lead if the Edwards affair had been public earlier. No doubt she'll play Howard Wolfson's clip and then invite a pundit with a useless opinion on either side of the debate. Then she'll end with some faux wisdom-- "Well I guess everyone's a little bit right."

The other CNN previewed discussions tonight were Nancy Pelosi on Larry King about why she's not calling back Congress (a better topic, but Larry will mess it up), and then Anderson Cooper looking into the details of the Edwards affair.

Maybe it's only in comparison to the Olympics which I find both more newsworthy and positive, but-- come on CNN, this is shit.

Why?. VA Cons is a good poster.

2008-08-11T15:50:42.775-04:00

Why?. VA Cons is a good poster.

VC said, "I love you too, Judas!"Then let him go. ...

2008-08-11T15:45:03.748-04:00

VC said, "I love you too, Judas!"

Then let him go. Let all of us go. Let us be free of you. Please?

I love you too, Judas!

2008-08-11T15:42:59.673-04:00

I love you too, Judas!

VC:That comment of his was not an attack on blue c...

2008-08-11T15:39:59.283-04:00

VC:

That comment of his was not an attack on blue collar workers - it was an attack on you. If you didn't understand the subtext, let me make it clearer. He said that you spend your days dealing with shit. Unfortuntaely, you have taken to dumping far too much of it here.

Nate,Can you delete troll comments i.e. any commen...

2008-08-11T15:39:43.761-04:00

Nate,

Can you delete troll comments i.e. any comment not talking about the post.

It was a pleasure reading the comments before the trolls invaded 538 ...

McCain is up by negative 5 in today's Gallup.Looks...

2008-08-11T15:35:26.471-04:00

McCain is up by negative 5 in today's Gallup.

Looks like McCain has successfully labeled Obama as a secret Muslim terrorist celebrity.

Interesting dates from the PPP´s poll in Colorado....

2008-08-11T15:33:58.692-04:00

Interesting dates from the PPP´s poll in Colorado.
Obama leads 48-44, 37% of voters are democratic and 38% republican.
In white voters are tied and Obama leads easily the black and hispanic vote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Colorado_811.pdf

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Why Howard Wolfson is Out of a Job

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情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

Read the Steve Huntley in today’s Chicago Sun Time...

I disagree with ClarkJeffrey regarding the likelih...

Oh and the Hillary sponsored coup at the DNC story...

Oh and the Hillary sponsored coup at the DNC story...

I was just reading the earlier posts about the pos...

Wolfson's assertion strikes me as absurd. Especia...

Hmm...2nd choice.... well, for all those other nom...

I have concluded that this is all part of an elabo...

Believe I commented at the time that the fact Edwa...

The Wolfson debate is a hypothetical wrapped in a ...

Dario-He's too loose with facts that are consequen...

Nataraj: You are right. Thank you, My apologies ...

CNN is conpletely lost. MSNBC was killing it in el...

CNN's Election Center is leading with this sensati...

Why?. VA Cons is a good poster.

VC said, "I love you too, Judas!"Then let him go. ...

I love you too, Judas!

VC:That comment of his was not an attack on blue c...

Nate,Can you delete troll comments i.e. any commen...

McCain is up by negative 5 in today's Gallup.Looks...

Interesting dates from the PPP´s poll in Colorado....