Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 6/24

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2009-10-08T08:40:14.087-04:00

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2009-02-12T22:07:00.000-05:00

Indiana may have a very rural/conservative sector ...

2008-06-26T10:23:00.000-04:00

Indiana may have a very rural/conservative sector in the southern portion of the State (more akin to Kentucky/West Virginia), but it also the least populated. Plus, Bloomington (very liberal) and portions of the metro areas of both Cincinnati and Louisville extend into southern Indiana. My point is that although the rural areas will go McCain, the cities may not. Add this to the rest of central and northern Indiana (where they are much more inline with Illinois, Ohio and Michigan) and Obama has a great opportunity to shade Indiana blue.
I also agree with the poster who stated that if Indiana is within 6points between the two, Obama will have the race wrapped up. Indiana will be a real litmus test for the entire nation as our polls close first and will be the first state with results.

@Paul Angelone:If South Dakota is in the Midwest t...

2008-06-25T22:14:00.000-04:00

@Paul Angelone:
If South Dakota is in the Midwest than Louisiana should be as well! We need to address what actually is the Midwest.

As someone who was raised in Minnesota, I tend to think similar thoughts about Ohio and Missouri, myself. So I'm with you that the term "Midwest" is awfully vague, and it means different things to different people.

But I imagine the same can be said about almost every geographic group outside of New England. Does the Pacific Northwest include San Francisco? Does the South include Oklahoma? Delaware? And how about Texas: is it Southern or Southwestern? And since these categories are tied up with identity, these are as much moral and political questions as cartographic ones. So, you know, they're not very easy.

The upshot of all of this, however, is that, like you, I appreciate the 538 system, because it avoids the traditional categories and the normative pitfalls contained therein.

The reason undecideds are much higher right now th...

2008-06-25T18:38:00.000-04:00

The reason undecideds are much higher right now than June 04 seems pretty obvious--in 04 there was an incumbent whose first term generated strong responses from the electorate. The D was fairly generic, so it was a litmus test on Bush, whom everyone had strong opinions about. As much as many of us would like to (more or less accurately) brand McCain as Bush's third term, he's not actually George Bush, and Obama is a candidate with a host strengths and weaknesses (from an electoral perspective) that I'm not surprised to see a high number of undecideds.

I wonder how many of the current undecideds are (historically) R-leaning independents who've historically liked McCain's 'maverick' reputation, who are finding themselves forced to reconsider their normal electoral tendencies in light of the embarrassing, unmitigated disaster that is Republican rule in the 21st century.

Today McCain and Obama are tied in the Gallup trac...

2008-06-25T16:58:00.000-04:00

Today McCain and Obama are tied in the Gallup tracking poll, first time any poll has shown Obama not in the lead since the primaries ended. Rassmussen daily tracking has Obama +4, which makes today's tracking average of Obama +2, the worst for Obama since the primaries ended.

Interestingly, altho McCain consistently did better in the Rasmussen track than Gallup track during the primary season, that has now flipped- throughout this month McCain has consistently done 2-3 points better in Gallup. Not sure why (and Rasmussen's state numbers have seemed more consistent with the smaller Obama lead in Gallup).

While I think IN could swing blue given the wretch...

2008-06-25T15:27:00.000-04:00

While I think IN could swing blue given the wretched state of the economy, living in Southern IN makes me hesitate. Indiana is still the only state to be overtly controlled by the Klan, (elected an out Klan leader governor in the 20s) and while the Klan is quieter now, the sentiments are still very strong.

Here's a question: I have noticed there hasn't bee...

2008-06-25T15:14:00.000-04:00

Here's a question: I have noticed there hasn't been much comment on the large number of undecideds in many of these polls where Obama is in the lead. Often, the number of undecideds is larger than the spread between Obama and McCain. Is this unusual for June before a presidential election? I did a quick Google search and it seemed that about 4% of respondents were undecided in June '04 polls. I've become a regular reader of this blog, although, admittedly, I don't understand all of the statistics. Would appreciate if Nate or some other stats guru could address this ongoing "undecided" factor. Is it unusually high? What might it mean? Thanks!

If South Dakota is in the Midwest than Louisiana s...

2008-06-25T13:07:00.000-04:00

If South Dakota is in the Midwest than Louisiana should be as well! We need to address what actually is the Midwest. I like how 538 has labled the countries many regions and does not just lable the middle of the country -- the Middlewest.

I think Indiana is absolutely in play. Obviously p...

2008-06-25T11:55:00.000-04:00

I think Indiana is absolutely in play. Obviously past elections show that it is slightly more conservative than Ohio and it's a state that Clinton never won but demographics change.

The reason it is closer is firstly Obama's unique appeal to people who are not overtly political and also the fact that Illinois borders Northern Indiana. You also can't ignore the fact that Indiana has had a Democratic governor and now a senator in Evan Bayh so it is not a state that automatically rejects Democratic candidates.

More to the point though. If Indiana is even remotely in play (ie if Obama is within 6 points) then it's over anyway. Obama only needs to hold the Kerry states and gain 18 electoral votes and if Obama is close in Indiana, he wins in Ohio (and Iowa) which gives him plenty.

I've said this before but if Obama gets a further bounce from his joint appearances with Hillary this week and McCain is unable to turn the tide of bad news stories (Charlie Black, the psychological benefits of offshore drilling) the polls are only going to get worse for him and the GOP will start to turn on him. This could be a blow out.

Obama could easily carry Indiana. I have defended...

2008-06-25T11:09:00.000-04:00

Obama could easily carry Indiana. I have defended this State for years now concerning it's nack for being a "red state." Indiana is very purple, affected by the same issues facing the entire midwest and as noted and apparent by the Primary, a winable state for the Dems if time and money are spent here.

Indiana democrats, myself included, have felt very disenfranchised by the electoral system. If Indiana would at least allow our electorits to split for Pres, it would be better. However, all or nothing has left many democrats at home on election day. I have a feeling that the democrats this cycle smell blood and will come out in huge numbers, which would spell doom for "McBush."

Also, in 1992 Dan Quayle was on the ticket and he ...

2008-06-25T09:52:00.000-04:00

Also, in 1992 Dan Quayle was on the ticket and he was from Indiana. Anyways, I can't imagine that the reason Indiana has never been close is simply bc Democrats never competed there. John Kerry lost by 27 points! I don't know what it is, but Indiana does seem more conservative than the rest of the midwest.

Another nice piece of analysis. After 20 years of...

2008-06-25T09:40:00.000-04:00

Another nice piece of analysis.
After 20 years of the south dominating American politics, could this be the Midwest rising? Could it be Ted Strickland in '16 (or Sebelius, or Granholm - I know, I know, Canadian - or Franken or ???)

Houston: "39/22 D/R? Yeah. Right."In much of the c...

2008-06-25T05:25:00.000-04:00

Houston: "39/22 D/R? Yeah. Right."

In much of the country D/R is running between 2:1 and 3:2.

You really can't blame the pollsters for that, you'll have to blame Bush instead.

.

To the person who said that this site is biased to...

2008-06-25T04:33:00.000-04:00

To the person who said that this site is biased towards Obama, I completely disagree - I think that if anything this is one of the most unbiased sites with regard to reporting the figures.

During the Primaries the numbers were better for Clinton vs McCain than for Obama. Right around the time Clinton dropped out, they were better for McCain in the Obama/Mccain comparison.

This is actually one of the more conservative sites because most of the other sites are just reporting poll figures without a true breakdown - but they too show Obama is ahead - DEAL WITH IT.

Rasmussen is pro-R in their own political opinions...

2008-06-25T03:58:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen is pro-R in their own political opinions, but I don't think their methodology necessarily is.

I used to think so based on the fact that their Bush Approval was so much higher than everyone else's. However, the reason is that they break approval and disapproval into "strongly" and "somewhat" categories, which I've grown to like. There are still only 49% who STRONGLY disapprove. that's the highest it's ever been and I think 50+ would represent a major tipping point and be extremely bad news for McCain.

@judas_priest"Rusmussen's methodology problem has ...

2008-06-25T03:31:00.000-04:00

@judas_priest

"Rusmussen's methodology problem has a sligh pro R tilt this season. Those more familiar with Rasmussen's methodology may be able to confirm, alter or rebut my analysis".

I agree with you, I have been following Rasmussen polling and its methodology for a while, its tilted pro R.

What's Interesting About the LA Times/Bloomberg Po...

2008-06-24T23:45:00.000-04:00

What's Interesting About the LA Times/Bloomberg Poll:

The partisan ID for this poll was:

38% Democrats
22% Republicans
32% Independents*

If you use Nate's "World's Simplest Election Projection" (the Excel Spreadsheet from this site: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/06/worlds-simplest-election-projection.html ) and adjust the Voter ID to exactly what Nate's estimate is, based on all the national polling and his best estimate, here's what you come up with:

Nate's Voter ID:38.2% Democrat (instead of 39% In the LA Times Poll), 28.9% Republican, (instead of 22% in the LA Poll), and 33.2% Indpendent, (instead of 27% independent + 10% DK/didn't answer = 37%).

Here's what you find: Obama +8.1%

That's a lot more in line with other polls and is a lot more reasonable. But, it's still a HUGE lead for Obama. If he can hold that size lead through November, we could expect him to win close to 390 electoral votes, which, while not a landslide like '64, '72, '80, or '84, is still a big win by historical standards.

Obama's lead is very unlikely to be 15% unless Democrats simply SWAMP Republicans at the polls in November to skew partisan voter ID by 17%. That is certainly possible, given what Gallup found about voter enthusiasm, with Conservative Republicans not very enthusiastic about voting for McCain, while Democrats are much more excited by Obama's candidacy.

Republicans could just decide to stay home on election day. But, it's still very unlikely that partisan ID on election day will favor Democrats by 17%.

*(I'm including Other Party ID/No answer/Don't know as Independents, LA Times breakdown is actually 22% Independents, which leaves 10% undefined. It doesn't add up to 100% which screws things up! You have to add refused to answer, don't know, or other party ID to the independents column. This actually helps McCain a little bit since he's winning Independents 36%-33% over Obama in this poll, but it doesn't change the overall result of Obama +8.1 by much).

The exceptions have been already noted in the comm...

2008-06-24T22:56:00.000-04:00

The exceptions have been already noted in the comments, but the reason both parties have shied away from nominating Midwesterners is because they tend to be pragmatic and therefore have less appeal to their parties' ideological wings, and that's who votes in primaries and caucuses. Some recent Democratic failures include Harkin, Kerrey, Gephardt and Paul Simon; they were beaten by guys from the South and Northeast. Bob Dole finally got nominated by the GOP when they had no chance of winning.

The more I think about it the more I think Evan Ba...

2008-06-24T22:47:00.000-04:00

The more I think about it the more I think Evan Bayh should be Obama's VP candidate. He is and ex-governor and current Senator which gives him executive and foreign policy bona fides. He can turn a red state Blue. He can balance out change with experience while not being too much of a Democratic establishment candidate to spoil Obama's message. Also I think McBush is going to pick Pawlenty, which could put MN in play so this would make McBush defend IN.

Nate,Can you do a post about which poll methodolog...

2008-06-24T22:45:00.000-04:00

Nate,

Can you do a post about which poll methodology statistically is better: changing the party identification to the current poll's party identification or using older/more stable party indentifications.

This seems to cause most of the big differences between polls and I was wondering if you had any data on which is more accurate.