Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Guest Column: Will Bin Laden Strike Again?

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2009-05-18T11:17:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-12T04:04:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T04:04:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-09T02:49:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-18T04:16:00.000-05:00

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The Reagan "revolution" jumped the shark long befo...

2008-10-19T15:47:00.000-04:00

The Reagan "revolution" jumped the shark long before the man left office. After the 130+ investigations, indictments and convictions from the Reagan Administration, the only way either of the Bushes made it in was by appealing to the greed of low-info... aw hell, lets call idiots idiots. You and I could have prevented that by preventing the Dems from nominating dweebs.

Bin Laden's dead body being heralded on camera all...

2008-10-13T00:41:00.000-04:00

Bin Laden's dead body being heralded on camera all around the world is not likely to happen since the left leaning Obama mania media has a different agenda. UBL's capture or death would be carried by FOX and nobody else. Keith Overbite and the tingling leg guy Matthews from MSLSD would probably not even mention such a victory for the US Military if it were to happen. McCain/Palin are our only hope for the survival of this nation and the constitution.

Sarah Palin's place WILL be in the house-The White...

2008-10-11T14:43:00.000-04:00

Sarah Palin's place WILL be in the house-The White House-if she becomes VP. So there, bin Laden.

Brilliant piece, and I hope it reaches a lot of pe...

2008-10-11T13:16:00.000-04:00

Brilliant piece, and I hope it reaches a lot of people. The more American voters realise what Bin Laden wants, the less likely they are to give it him - which will be especially important in the horrible case of another attack.

Wow.I've been very happy to see the poll numbers o...

2008-10-11T12:06:00.000-04:00

Wow.

I've been very happy to see the poll numbers on this site getting steadily bluer over the last few weeks. But I always worried that the site was, like me, blue-slanted and maybe did not reflect reality because of that slant. How can you judge a pollster (or poll aggregator) until after the election, right? However, now that I have been made aware that Nate PREDICTED THE TAMPA BAY RAYS WOULD MAKE THE PLAYOFFS, those fears are utterly laid to rest. That is seriously pretty impressive. Here's hoping that's the only October surprise in store for us...

I think you're giving ObL too much credit. I don't...

2008-10-11T03:58:00.000-04:00

I think you're giving ObL too much credit. I don't think he follows the elections too closely, he's probably more focused on hiding and killing than following our horse race. And I think he is too blinded by his hate to see a distinction between the two parties. They have said before, they see no difference between the candidates.

Also, I think if we do catch Osama, under a Republican administration, they will not admit it, because it will put our minds at rest. They would rather have the "enemy" be unknown and ominous than found. Osama will probably only be pronounced dead once it is too long for him to be alive anymore.

If Bush were really waging a War on Terror, he would kill himself.

Hasn't anybody here ever watched West Wing, season...

2008-10-11T02:10:00.000-04:00

Hasn't anybody here ever watched West Wing, season 6?

Rany's argument is the classic Mommy v. Daddy problem. When the people are hurting in their wallets, they want a caring mommy to fix the mood. A Democrat. When a bully beats them up on the playground, they want a strong daddy to beat the s**t out of him. A Republican.

Great job Nate. I majored in math at Notre Dame, and your models are great. Although, I would add something to account for voter-turnout operations, though they are hard to quantify. Maybe there's some historical data on GOTV offices to correlate with election results in a county. Do that for the 5 or 10 biggest counties in a state (a lot of work), and maybe you increase your R2 a little more.

I don't see why a bin Laden video would be a negat...

2008-10-10T22:12:00.000-04:00

I don't see why a bin Laden video would be a negative for Obama.

Obama simply takes to the airwaves more or less 24/7, pointing out that the Republicans have bankrupted the country with two wars and this bastard is still alive and still making propaganda. Why??????????????

The Dems take the lead amongst the counter-terrorism crowd, and hold it for a generation. Good for another point or two on election day.

The one thing I disagree with Rany about is that s...

2008-10-10T20:59:00.000-04:00

The one thing I disagree with Rany about is that surely nobody really thought bin Laden was supporting Kerry. It was perfectly obvious that (a)it was in his best interests for Bush to carry on, and (b) that was why he needed to make it look as though he favoured Kerry. The neocons knew that perfectly well, but it was in their best interests to say 'look, he's supporting Kerry', knowing that it would turn the voters against the man bin Laden supported. And it's quite plausible that bin Laden, in unholy alliance with the neocons, turned 1% of the voters in Ohio and flipped the result of the election.

But wouldn't it a bit too predictable by his high standards of unpredictability to do the same again? And won't the Obama campaign seek to defuse it in advance?

I agree that he'll do something, but not the same again. But what will the surprise be this time?

Sad but true analysis of OBL motives. Hope he is g...

2008-10-10T18:42:00.000-04:00

Sad but true analysis of OBL motives. Hope he is gone from our lives.

My pal Real Joe states ...Real Joe said... AP:Cand...

2008-10-10T18:15:00.000-04:00

My pal Real Joe states ...

Real Joe said...

AP:

Candidates meet 'natural-born' test despite rumors

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gcwFmRs78Gz6-31o50qhACm-Y24AD93NRJE00

Here's the story wrought with errors and typical AP non-interest in investigating anything re Obama:

Candidates meet 'natural-born' test despite rumors
By ANN SANNER – 1 hour ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — As John McCain and Barack Obama vie to become president, certain fevered voices persist in saying they should not even be allowed to try.

In an argument popular on the Internet and taken seriously practically nowhere else, critics of the candidates argue that each does not qualify to run for the White House because he's not a "natural-born citizen" as the Constitution requires.

Obama plainly is, because he was born in the U.S.

McCain qualifies, too, although the circumstances of his birth — on a U.S. naval base in the Panama Canal Zone in 1936 — were unusual enough to merit a review.

In California, U.S. District Judge William Alsup threw out a lawsuit seeking to remove McCain from the state's ballot because of his birthplace.

Alsup ruled in September that McCain was essentially a qualifying citizen two times over — first, because both his parents were U.S. citizens, which satisfied eligibility rules of the time; and because a law passed a year after his birth retroactively recognizing people born in the zone as natural-born Americans.

McCain's father was stationed in the Panama Canal Zone with the U.S. Navy.

The Constitution requires that only "natural-born" citizens hold the presidency. But the Founding Fathers did not elaborate on the term, so bloggers and others have had a field day.

Theories abound that Obama actually was born abroad and that his birth certificate, proving he was born in Hawaii, is a fake.

(My note: the document linked below is a Certificate of Live Birth. It is not a long form original birth certificate. It is missing an official seal and is therefore NOT a legal document under Hawaii law. The missing seal is very curious. And is of course blown off by AP which dismisses it by saying essentially ...dispite the fact that the image of the document has no visible seal ... a third party says it does have one).

It was not mailed since it has no folds and must have been picked up by Obama himself on June 5, 2007 ... this date is seen inking through from the reverse side and is right below the area on the form where every known example of a authentic Hawaii COLB would have an official seal ... or some 3rd party authorized by law to receive on Obama's behalf an official document. Examples of Certificates of Live Birth issued around this time have been found on the internet - search geneologies. This document is produced from computer records and is printed out by laser printer on the offical paper stock form. In other words it is a computer generated document which extracts data from a database and prints it though a template. The spacing error in the Date Filed by Registrar then should be seen on other COLB issued by Hawaii before and after June 5, 2007. All other example documents found on the internet, DO NOT contain this error.)

Obama was born in Honolulu in 1961, two years after Hawaii became a state. He is the son of a Kenyan father and a mother from Kansas, who met and married in Hawaii. After the marriage failed, a 6-year-old Obama left Hawaii to spend four years in Indonesia with his mother and Indonesian stepfather. In 1971, when he was 10, Obama's mother sent him back to Honolulu to stay with his maternal grandparents.

In response to the allegations, Obama's campaign in June posted the Illinois senator's birth certificate on his campaign Web site,

http://fightthesmears.com/articles/5/birthcertificate.

(The AP completely and conveniently ignores an entire second line of argumentation in the PA lawsuit. That Obama was adopted by his step father and became an Indonesian citizen at age 6 allowing him to attend school in Indonesia)

The nonpartisan Web site Factcheck.org examined the original document and said it does have a raised seal and the usual evidence of a genuine document.

(factcheck.org is funded by Annenberg and given Obama and Ayres links to it can not be considered an unbiased source. All other sealed COLB show a seal when scanned and uploaded on the Internet. There is no evidence of a seal on this document.)

Even so, a lawsuit challenging Obama's candidacy was filed in August in a U.S. District Court in Pennsylvania and is still pending.

(Note The main stream media including the AP has reported extensively on Palin's actions to slow down the process in the legal fight over her role in troopergate. Curious that AP makes no mention of the DNC and Obama actions to block discovery in the PA case.

AP never investigates what exactly is a Certificate of Live Birth as presented by the Obama campaign and how it is distinct from an original long form birth certificate.

http://obamacrimes.com/attachments/030_ObamaBergOpposProtecOrder100808.pdf

This link has a copy of the recent order denying the Obama and DNCs attempt to block discovery ... Obama must produce requested documents by Oct 15.

This is the last hope for McCain ... as Nate clearly spells out the election is otherwise over.

Cheers

Your post assumes that there are only three entiti...

2008-10-10T18:01:00.000-04:00

Your post assumes that there are only three entities that could launch a November surprise, the McCain campaign, the Obama campaign, and OBL.

You've forgotten a very significant group of people: wingnuts. It is much more likely that some group of wingnuts,or other 527 type not directly tied to or controlled by McCain could be sitting on some November surprise. Remember, the 2000 November surprise about W's DUI? That wasnt propagated by the Gore campaign, it was the result of some New England Dems that sat on the info, until they could release it to maximum effect.

Perhaps Bin Laden (if alive) or Zawahiri will purc...

2008-10-10T17:40:00.000-04:00

Perhaps Bin Laden (if alive) or Zawahiri will purchase half an hour of network primetime for their latest video! :p

I think Al Qaeda's worst nightmare is being left out of the "national conversation".

They want to be relevant. They've got to show results to their donor base.

So an attack or short of that a video, should be expected. If neither materialises before Nov 4, they're really on their last heels.
But all the reports indicate that's not the case, so I do expect to hear from those bastards.

As for the general thesis of the article, sure, Al Qaeda wants and needs the Clash of Civilisations. They want the US President to help exacerbate tensions with the Muslim world. I think any terrorism expert will agree on that.

The war on terrorism is to a considerable degree a battle over hearts and minds. Nothing could be worse for Al Qaeda than Obama T-shirts outselling Osama ones in the Islamic World.

Alas, too many numbskulls just don't understand the nature of the war on terrorism. Nor do they understand Al Qaeda or the Islamic World.

Given that Bush won the popular vote in 2004, there are plenty of numbskull US voters out there, who might just react in the same manner as in 2004. I'm cautiously optimistic that it won't be enough to give McCain the election, but I dare say we'll just have to see how it goes.

In any case, I'd be surprised if we don't "hear" from Al Qaeda in late October...

The right-wing, linear-thinking, checkers-playing,...

2008-10-10T17:36:00.000-04:00

The right-wing, linear-thinking, checkers-playing, insular, parochial bumpkins above are no match for the multi-dimensional-thinking, chess-playing, "inscrutable foreigners."

If you can't figure out that that linear, emotion-laden, easily-reached conclusion is bait for a trap, then you deserve what you get when the trap functions.

Hopefully, at this point in history, we Americans can recognize reverse psychology when it's being used on us, and appropriately restrain ourselves from hot-headed reactions.

If not, then we really are collectively embodied in Forrest Gump - slow, simple, child-like, dim-witted so much so as to be the unwitting witness to, and participant of real history-in-the-making, and whose perennial "dumb luck" may have then just run out.

I can't believe that Obama won't be prepared for O...

2008-10-10T17:24:00.000-04:00

I can't believe that Obama won't be prepared for Osama.

I bet that Barack already has a response ready should bin Laden emerge. He'd say that bin Laden's appearance is further proof of Bush-McCain's folly of diverting resources away from Afghanistan to Iraq.

I've taken the view in other places for some time ...

2008-10-10T17:23:00.000-04:00

I've taken the view in other places for some time that the last thing that the Islamic extremists want is for America to present to the world as its leader the face of a black man, born a Muslim (Islam passes by paternity), who pronounces Taliban, Iran and Pakistan with the proper accent (Not "Eye-ran" but "Eee-rahn") and who can credibly say to Europe, Asia and the Arab/Persian world that he wants to unite with them against a common, irrational enemy in the form of Islamic Terrorists.

I honestly and sincerely believe that these terrorists would prefer to deal with an American President who can be portrayed as an imperialistic, neo-con, Christian Right bogey-man than they would want to deal with a leader who is very tough, but credible to the rest of the world (If you don't think that Obama will be very tough on terrorism, you don't understand that the ego of the man. He is, I assure you, already thinking about his legacy. He doesn't want it to be as the president who conceded the fight to terrorism, but as the man who won it. His role model is JFK, possibly the greatest Hawk of his generation).

"William Ayers" NOT "William Ayres" (the former wa...

2008-10-10T17:09:00.000-04:00

"William Ayers" NOT "William Ayres" (the former was a WU member, the latter a state representative to the Ohio house).

Great post, by the way.

So I guess this is over; I won't be checking for m...

2008-10-10T17:04:00.000-04:00

So I guess this is over; I won't be checking for more responses. Thanks again for the intelligent remarks.

I have one final point. I am shocked-- shocked-- to learn that Angelina Jolie endorsed Barack Obama.

new thread

2008-10-10T17:02:00.000-04:00

new thread