Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Road to 270: Texas

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2009-09-25T07:42:14.258-04:00

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2009-01-18T04:12:00.000-05:00

The cities account for about 30% of the population...

2008-10-12T11:28:00.000-04:00

The cities account for about 30% of the population in Texas.

Dallas-Fort Worth
Houston
San Antonio
Austin

They are light blue about 55-45 Dem.

The suburbs around those cities are light pink and account for about 20% of Texas 55-45 Pub.

Pockets of other areas of Blue like the Valley and a few towns like Laredo, Corpus, El Paso, and East with P.A. Beau, etc. account for 10% and are about 60-40 Dem as they are very minority heavy.

The challenge for the Dems of course is the other 40% of the state, where the population denisty is not all that low. Little towns throughout the state, the lower part of the Bible Belt. Yes, it's Bush country, but it's also Red as Oklahoma or Utah. 65-35 Republican. Perhaps without Bush it's closer to 60-40%.

In order for a Dem to win all of the parts of the state need to be about 5% bluer. At this stage, this can only happen in a landslide. Over time, perhaps we'll beblue again, but for now, it's a stretch.

First, I think a lot of the self-righteousness fro...

2008-10-12T07:36:00.000-04:00

First, I think a lot of the self-righteousness from folks in Austin who proclaim (erroneously) that they are the only blue dot in a red sea explains in part why Texas remains red as an entirety. There is a divisive attitude in the state that has not helped, particularly in bringing the message to poorer voters about why the Democratic party might benefit them. Because there isn't a strong tradition of unions in Texas and because so many of the rural areas have become suburban so quickly (and thus have lost the connection to the government infrastructure efforts that they needed 40 years ago), the Democratic party has really become viewed as a bastion for distant, wealthy elites and transplants, rather than a party that can effectively deal with poverty and values issues. I strongly this is a Democratic brand and attitude problem, as much as it is a result of the supposedly "ignorant" people in the rural populations. (Don't forget that many of those low education numbers reflect deeply impoverished communities along the border, which have only recently gotten attention from the national party structure.)

As others have mentioned, the intensely damaging redistricting efforts here really sought-and largely succeed--to destroy Democratic momentum in the urban areas and in the valley. This was through no fault at all of the people (and actually in spite of their will).

Third, some of the Latino voters in Texas were won over by Bush's combination of socially conservative policies and relatively conciliatory immigration positions, but as the Republican Party has distanced itself from connecting with Latino voters, I expect these voters' affiliation to remain in flux here for awhile.

Most importantly, the DNC does virtually nothing here, and I speak as a volunteer in my local party office in one of these supposedly "blood red" counties. We have a lot of momentum, but it is all built on volunteer efforts and with very little money. It's hard to connect with a state so large if you rely only on this. This is most damaging, in my opinion, in terms of the Cornyn race, because I think he is somewhat easy pickings, but the DNC has appeared unwilling or unable to help the Noriega campaign much, which has virtually a nonexistent presence in my area, despite significant local interest in him. My guess is that the state is so large geographically that in fact it has no real correlary to other states. It is also a border state--in the East, it is much like the rural South, but as you move West, it has much more in common with the sunbelt states. It is just very, very hard to work this state (as a whole state) in a grassroots kind of way. Politically mobilizing the valley, the urban areas, and the growing suburbs (which maybe in Dallas are getting redder, but I don't think that's true across the state) will take a massive coordination effort and a lot of money. I think the party just feels like Texas is too much of a headache and expense to deal with, when there are smaller flippable states out there (like Virginia, which I think after living in both places is rather unlike Texas in many ways). So we are left basically to work it on our own, and prep the state over the next two or three election cycles in the hopes that the DNC will believe that it is finally worth its resources.

It's a chicken or the egg game, if you ask me.

The State of Texas is a ripe opportunity for Democ...

2008-10-11T23:19:00.000-04:00

The State of Texas is a ripe opportunity for Democrats to crack wide-open the Republican stranglehold on 'Middle-America,' the South, and West - and to dramatically redefine the electoral map.

As a Texan who hopes to figure in this seemingly dramatic transformation, let me say it is well within reach.

However, very little is being done to take advantage of the opportunities presented in this election cycle!

Consider that for all the excitement in the state, including the 'on paper' possibility of retaking the State House, and the emergence of strong personalities, such as U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards, and of course, sweeping enthusiasm for Sen. Obama - the Democratic Party for the entire State of Texas sought to raise a mere pittance, only $10,000 to support statewide candidates.

And what about the 500,000 to 1,000,000 life-long Democratic voters in South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley? They are largely uninvolved in state and national elections (with the odd exception of this year, due largely to Sen. Hillary Clinton), and candidates seem perfectly fine with that.

(Note: My hometown is in rural South Texas)

Perhaps it's because candidates who come down here looking for support are quickly surrounded by self-interested local politicos.

But, particularly in this election, individuals and families have shown a willingness to invest in a type of campaign unlike anything they're used to seeing locally.

So if South Texas Democrats reach out to connect with statewide and national candidates, who pay attention to their concerns, and give them some time and attention, as well as the traditional base of urban and working-class Democrats, there could be a new coalition that decides the outcome of elections in Texas.

It may be a moderate, more socially-conservative, pro-religion Democrat that takes the helm in Texas, but it'll be blue nonetheless.

If not now - next time.

-Michael Barnes

Hey Sean,Is there any concern (regarding Obama's g...

2008-10-11T22:51:00.000-04:00

Hey Sean,
Is there any concern (regarding Obama's ground game) with the fact that so few voters registered and voted in that one week window in Ohio where people could register and vote at the same time?

Thanks for your great posts.

Hook em Horns! O-Who?I'm an Obamite and a Texas Ex...

2008-10-11T22:40:00.000-04:00

Hook em Horns! O-Who?

I'm an Obamite and a Texas Ex. Is that a contradiction? I hope not.

Sean, has Noriega been selling you some cheap crac...

2008-10-11T20:44:00.000-04:00

Sean, has Noriega been selling you some cheap crack? He’s NOT that credible; he’s a bland and relatively uninspiring speaker/campaigner, he ran too hard too long on his “I’m a war veteran” shtick, has been an indifferent fundraiser (Mikal Watts and his private war chest would have been a MUCH better choice.) And, it ‘s not just Noriega; can the Texas Dems as a party not raise money?

Hell, he just barely avoided a primary runoff against a teacher (halfway legitimate opponent), a security guard and the “other” Gene Kelly.

As for “winners,” by her not acting too bat crazy, I said Libertarian Yvonne Schick won the first Senate debate. Maybe Noriega would be more likely to win if liberal 527s would back-door Schick some money, especially (and, I’m not joking) if she could get a Kinky Friedman endorsement.

Note – I’m a Texas newspaper editor.

denstiny2-MuleRider has offended almost everyone o...

2008-10-11T17:43:00.000-04:00

denstiny2-

MuleRider has offended almost everyone on this board at on moment or another. He is an evangelical, God has given himthe right to judge everyone in the world. Isn't that Christian values? Hate first, ask questions later?

I leave in Collin County a Republican suburb north...

2008-10-11T16:45:00.000-04:00

I leave in Collin County a Republican suburb north of Dallas. The environment here appears different than 2004. I have yet to see any McCain yard signs posted in my neighborhood or surrounding areas. As far as bumper stickers, I see just as many Obama as I do McCain. Earlier this year, I was amazed to see so many people come out to vote democrat during the primary election. I am not sure if this is an indication of future things to come but I would not be surprised if on the night of the election, Texas turns blue.

One last comment I would like to make, I am rather offended by the blanket statement made about Blacks in an earlier post by Mule Rider. “Hispanics, by and large, are also not wooed or scared away by wedge issues like entitlment programs like the black community is”. Could you please elaborate and tell me what entitlement programs are you referring to? To my knowledge, the largest recipients of entitlement programs are corporations. Who are leaders of these corporations? Have it ever occurred to you the reason why a large portion of Blacks continue to vote Democrat and support the Democratic party is because this is the only party that treats us as human beings. Please do yourself a favor critical think before posting.

As a result, South Texas has the odd voting patter...

2008-10-11T16:40:00.000-04:00

As a result, South Texas has the odd voting pattern that the Democratic primary often has a higher voter turnout than the whole turnout for both parties in the general election.

This illustrates one possibility for Texas doing much better for Obama than might be expected. That requires all Democrates to vote and Republican to not vote.

Democrates here tend not to vote feeling that their vote does no good because of the Electoral College.

Some Republicans might not be willing to vote for Obama so will avoid the polls because of disgust with McCain and rationalize that the Electoral College will cover them not voting.

The real key is getting out the Democratic vote. Even if it doesn't win the state for Obama, a resurgance might bolster other Democrates, both candidates and base.

BTW, any other Fort Worth or Tarrant County reside...

2008-10-11T16:31:00.000-04:00

BTW, any other Fort Worth or Tarrant County residents visit 538?

I've spent more time on state rep Dan Barrett's campaign than Obama's. We really need to get a majority in the state House so that we can get fair redistricting in 2012.

Mule Rider:Excellent comments, althugh I don't agr...

2008-10-11T16:29:00.000-04:00

Mule Rider:

Excellent comments, althugh I don't agree with many of them. Political albatrosses like Bush tend of hang around the necks of the losers for a least a generation, fading slightly as time goes on, but leaving a long term footprint.
For a generation after the Civil War the Republicans destroyed the Democrats outsdie the South by "waving the bloody flag." Even after that was in the consciousness of most voters, it still helped shape the political alignment for a century.

Hoover, a far better man and president than either Harding or Coolidge, became the symbol that kept the Republican party a minority for 50 years, and still helps shape American politics today. FDR was the flip side of that same coin, for his impact lasts through today, even though few remember him.

Despite the crushing defeat the movement conservatives and the religious right will suffer this year, their overall impact will have shaped this country for another generation, unless major events intervene.

I've heard Dallas is now Democratic (I grew up in ...

2008-10-11T16:28:00.000-04:00

I've heard Dallas is now Democratic (I grew up in the suburbs there.) If Austin is clearly blue and I'm imagining that urban Houston is too, do the Republicans run up the big numbers in rural areas?

Dallas just turned blue and is not nearly as Dem as big cities elsewhere. Harris County (Houston) still generally elects Republicans to office. Austin (liberal college town), South Texas and San Antonio (Hispanic majority) and east Texas oil towns (labor) are Democratic strongholds. Republicans win rural areas. But, they really run up the numbers in all the suburbs around DFW and Houston.

The key to Texas ever turning blue will be Hispanics. They are not registered as much as their numbers. And, even registered Hispanic voters do not vote nearly as often as other voters. As that changes and their numbers increase, Texas will turn blue unless the Republican party somehow rehabilitates its image among minorities.

I forgot to add:I'm concerned about the Alaskan po...

2008-10-11T16:25:00.000-04:00

I forgot to add:
I'm concerned about the Alaskan polls. Mainly: What can they be thinking? The Palin model doesn't work elsewhere: Large parts of the country actually earn money by say inventing things rather than happen to sit on top of valuable liquids. Large parts of the country (CA) actually pay a lot more federal taxes than they take in and haven't (yet) started some huffy secessionist movement. Without the heavy economic and military subsidies, Alaska would largely depopulate except directly around the extraction industries that are increasingly automated anyhow.

Mule Rider,When I close my eyes and imagine that 9...

2008-10-11T16:24:00.000-04:00

Mule Rider,

When I close my eyes and imagine that 9/11 never happened... I still imagine Bush taking us into Iraq.

W. wanted to get Saddam long before he wanted to get bin Laden...

On an unrelated and more general note: while the Hispanic population in Texas might be more homogenous, it's disingenuous to talk about Hispanics as a monolithic voting bloc. Political attitudes amongst first-generation versus second-generation Hispanics are very different, and of course, country of origin also impacts voting patterns -- Cubans, to cite the obvious example (obvious both because it's so distinctive, and because it's handy within my own background), vote very differently than other Hispanics (although there again, second-generation Cubans such as myself are significantly more likely to vote Democrat than our parents/grandparents).

For most of the second-generation Hispanics I know (which is a good number, but of course, by no means is it fully representative of the entire demographic), Democratic party identification has less to do with immigration policy and more to do with distancing oneself from the xenophobia and racism of the right-wing base -- you know, the kinds of people making themselves known at all the McCain/Palin rallies lately.

Oh, and zenu, it doesn't matter if that article to which you linked is true or not -- holding up anti-war posters, and even calling somebody a liar, is a far cry from shouting "Kill him!" That the article even attempts to equate the two is mind-boggling relativism (wait, isn't that what the right always likes to accuse other people of?).

HOOK 'EM HORNS!!!

2008-10-11T16:20:00.000-04:00

HOOK 'EM HORNS!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4US7L6ypRk4&feature...

2008-10-11T16:19:00.001-04:00

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4US7L6ypRk4&feature=related

> BUSH IS NOT A TRUE CHRISTIAN!What about Palin? ...

2008-10-11T16:19:00.000-04:00

> BUSH IS NOT A TRUE CHRISTIAN!
What about Palin? These people have become the mythical Pharisees that they deplore in Sunday school.

In fact, Obama is much more of a Christian ideal -- teacher, community organizer etc.

But, I think I've had my fill of religion and government. Like our founders warned -- religion in government does harm to both.

If O loses Texas in the single digits (9-11 points...

2008-10-11T16:18:00.000-04:00

If O loses Texas in the single digits (9-11 points MAXIMUM) He will win the state in 4 years, I put money on that one.

I'm going to make a prognostication. I might be to...

2008-10-11T16:15:00.000-04:00

I'm going to make a prognostication. I might be totally wrong, though. I predict that the Republican party will target and win over large amounts of Hispanics in the coming years.

I think this would be the smart thing to do. But, it is going to be incredibly difficult for them because such a large part of the party is strongly anti-immigrant. Demographics are against the Republican party. Sooner or later they will have to remake themselves or else be a permanent minority. I think a reconstruction will occur, but they'll probably need to lose a couple of elections and have an intraparty bloodbath before it happens. I predict things will get worse for the party before it will get better.

Bush Movie coming outThe film will be released on ...

2008-10-11T16:11:00.000-04:00

Bush Movie coming out

The film will be released on October 17, 2008

The film's producers are reportedly planning to run TV spots for the film opposite John McCain's ads this fall.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1175491/

official site:
http://www.wthefilm.com