Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Specter's Switch More Insult Than Injury to GOP

Zoe Kentucky, Arlen Specter is pro choice, the pr...

2009-05-03T23:04:28.124-04:00

Zoe Kentucky,

Arlen Specter is pro choice, the primary reason he was always 'enemy #1 list' for the litmus test imposing organization known as The Club for Growth.

So your scenario instead using Tom Ridge would make it a democrat and republican pro-choice candidate running against each other, making it a lose-lose for anachronistic groups like TCFG, and another major blow against their relevance in modern day politics.

It's nice that they were slammed by Voinivich (not running for re-election) and Orin Hatch (so utterly safe as a republican in Utah) as the reason for the decline of the GOOPers. I'm sure this thought breached the minds of other senators as well that were too cowardly to make them known. But until they do, the death spiral shall continue to be a spectacle of mass entertainment.

I agree with an earlier post. Specter is now free ...

2009-04-29T06:25:19.833-04:00

I agree with an earlier post. Specter is now free from trying to prove anything to his party (or maybe has to prove things to his new party). That said, he will be less likely to hold out support on key legislation. He will vote Dem much more often than not -- especially if Obama is going to campaign for him. He is no Liberman, who continues to rankle and throw firebombs at his own party. I hope that, when the Dems pick up another 5-6 seats next election, that they finally kick Lieberman to the curb one and for all!

@Chris Just dropping all the way down here to say...

2009-04-28T23:37:40.950-04:00

@Chris

Just dropping all the way down here to say that, on behalf of all Virginians, we do not take responsibility for "that Virginia guy." He might have been born here, but he left when he was seven years old and we will not claim him. We spent a hell of a lot of time and money getting rid of George Allen, and I'll be damned if I'm going to let you pin Rick Santorum on us now. He's a Pennsylvania problem, and he stays in Pennsylvania.

Specter's defection may make Sens. Collins and Sno...

2009-04-28T22:31:45.826-04:00

Specter's defection may make Sens. Collins and Snowe feel a little more out-in-the-cold. If that prompts them to vote a bit closer to the party line, it might actually help the Republicans more than the loss of one seat hurt them. .

Collins and Snowe are too independent to toe the party line for mere politics.

There is one person who might be able to beat Toom...

2009-04-28T22:09:24.580-04:00

There is one person who might be able to beat Toomey and give Specter a run for his money--

Tom Ridge.

I heard him interviewed today on Specter's defection and thought "hey, now, he could change everything." A lot could happen in the next 1.5 years, not to mention that Specter is 79 and, sadly, his health isn't the greatest.

Just a random thought, IF Ridge were to run and win then PA would have a pro-life democrat and a pro-choice republican, two very rare species indeed.

At a pinch "Unmitigated win" might be construed to...

2009-04-28T22:02:47.427-04:00

At a pinch "Unmitigated win" might be construed to be correct, but the word is simply badly chosen. Mitigate means alleviate [negative] things. Cancelling out the double negatives we have "this is a mitigated win for the Ds" which is the equivalent of "this is an unalleviated win", which is strange. This is presumably due to the common use of unmitigated with the sense of "without any redeeming features"..

PK wrote: "Pedulums swing in politics. This one is...

2009-04-28T21:47:05.624-04:00

PK wrote:
"Pedulums swing in politics. This one is swinging faster than most."

The "pendulum" is not a guarantee.
The pendulum never swung for the Whigs, did it?

The pendulum swings because normally the party in the minority makes an effort to expand their base, improve GOTV efforts, or moderate. The GOP has actually shrunk their base, had a dismal GOTV effort in 2006 and 2008, and has moved even further from the centre. They are actively working against the pendulum.

It seems obvious that Parties can commit suicide, or at least dwindle to the point where the pendulum has no discernible effect.

Aside from that, the Republican Party is currently not an attractive option for those who may, in future, become disillusioned with Obama.
The GOP has become rabid, shrill, enveloped in a siege mentality, and quite comfortable with making strident demands for loyalty from the rank-and-file.
In short, it is closer to a religious cult than it is to a political organisation.

This does not appeal to independents, however disillusioned they may become if your predicted disaster comes to pass.

I also find your continued predictions of economic collapse to be in glaring contradiction to your assertions during the campaign that Republicans had a "positive spirit", which is why McCain would win.

Regarding Nate Silver's REPUBLICAN DEATH SPIRAL, h...

2009-04-28T21:29:15.570-04:00

Regarding Nate Silver's REPUBLICAN DEATH SPIRAL, here is Nobel economist Paul Krugman in today's New York Times:

"(W)e have a party that seems to be in a death spiral: the smaller it gets, the more it’s dominated by the hard right, which makes it even smaller."

Read it here: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/28/the-specter-of-republican-marginalization/

You go, Nate!

Regarding Nate Silver's REPUBLICAN DEATH SPIRAL, h...

2009-04-28T21:28:08.483-04:00

Regarding Nate Silver's REPUBLICAN DEATH SPIRAL, here is Nobel economist Paul Krugman in today's New York Times:
"(W)e have a party that seems to be in a death spiral: the smaller it gets, the more it’s dominated by the hard right, which makes it even smaller."Read it here: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/28/the-specter-of-republican-marginalization/
You go, Nate!

Isn't this a perfect opening for the netroots ? W...

2009-04-28T20:34:09.851-04:00

Isn't this a perfect opening for the netroots ?

With no establishment support for a primary...... couldn't a vocal campaign by the netroots that "we'd supply the cash for a primary" be utilised to push Specter on a key point ?

Perhaps the netroots and Specter could do their own deal on the nod-nod-wink-wink, similar to the Democratic parties "no primary funds" deal.

Tell Specter........Vote your conscience, but always give an up-and-down vote for everyone else to vote their consciences too. If you carry on opposing cloture, we'll start gathering funds for your primary.

It could be done like the "Dollar a day to make norm go away". We all contribute $20 every time Specter votes the wrong side of a fillibuster. As he votes against cloture, he'll see his primary challengers resources jump every time.

With his "primary" problem being, well, the primary...... wouldn't that be one hell of an incentive ?

Oh........ And can I patent this idea ? This is, as far as I know, the first record of this idea in print.

If it turns out it is.......... I demand 0.1c on every $ donated as my rightful Galtian reward. Capitalism baby ! The guy who dies with the most toys at the end wins.

Look upon my might ye mortals and despair !

Yours,

TGP

Gallup has Obama's approval at 63/31. Someone's...

2009-04-28T20:06:07.484-04:00

Gallup has Obama's approval at 63/31.

Someone's been cooking up another batch of meth, or looking at single day samples.. which is basically the same thing.

I think Democrats will support him to win in Penns...

2009-04-28T19:47:04.452-04:00

I think Democrats will support him to win in Pennsylvania even if his record isn't liberal.

Some years ago NY Congressman Michael Forbes switch parties to Democrat and Democrats failed to vigorously support him against another Republican the next year. Forbes lost. That stands in sharp contrast to Democrats who switched to the GOP and were paraded in front of the media as some kind of a 'trend' (and helped reinforce the Republicans' desire to be seen as the party in ascendancy.)

So I think that the psychological effect of Specter winning nomination as a Democrat and then beating a Republican is strong enough that even Democrats who might not be thrilled with him, will now support him.

There are still a few more apples left to pluck on the tree, after all.

Nice piece here. Of course, it ignores the fact th...

2009-04-28T19:05:40.573-04:00

Nice piece here. Of course, it ignores the fact that many of the Republican threats to filibuster the Dems were for things they probably shouldn't be filibustering (as if there is anything that should be filibustered), for example the threat to filibuster Sebulius' nomination, which passed by a massive margin today. Who are these people kidding with these idle threats?

Specter is not an idiot, and probably won't side with Republicans on idiotic threats to filibuster. So, once Franken is seated (all but a foregone conclusion) the Dems will have what they need to demolish the threat (or action) of the inane filibuster. Just my thoughts.

What the dems have is another sure vote against fi...

2009-04-28T18:56:18.659-04:00

What the dems have is another sure vote against filibuster 100% of the time going forward. Whether he votes for the bill in question is irrelevant since the dems have enough bodies to overcome defections.Especially when MN new Senator takes his place.

What this does is kill the ability of the Senate Republicans to cause any real trouble, other than cry a lot.The repiglicans will not be able to stop anything, much less threaten with a straight face.

Frankly, I am shocked since Specter was foolishly defending torture just last week.

Disagree, Pragmatus. I don't think Kaine overdid i...

2009-04-28T18:35:55.655-04:00

Disagree, Pragmatus. I don't think Kaine overdid it on the gloating, if at all. Besides, it's party chairman's duty to rub salt in the enemies wounds and gloat a little, especially in light of Steele's constant trash talking. Big difference is what you have to back it up with. Kaine has Murphy, Franken and now Specter joining the Democratic ranks. Steele, in comparison, has precisely DICK to gloat about, yet he was at it again today with the trash talking.

Also, Kaine isn't even on the DNC job full-time.

I'm just impressed that Specter actually admitted ...

2009-04-28T18:27:48.368-04:00

I'm just impressed that Specter actually admitted that he did it for his personal political gain.

Now that Specter is not part of the Senate GOOPer ...

2009-04-28T18:26:48.339-04:00

Now that Specter is not part of the Senate GOOPer caucus, he won't have the constant pressure from the GOOPer leadership pushing and threatening him. He will be pushed by the Democratic leadership, but with the carrot - "you support this bill, we'll make a couple of changes on that bill."

The stick that the Democratic leadership has is to tell Specter that if he doesn't at least appear to be playing ball, then he very well COULD be facing a primary opponent in 2010. Even if that drives Specter back into the GOOPer fold, his future at that point is sealed and doomed.

Specter either starts to consistently vote more in line with the Democrats in the Senate, or his fate is determined.

Short term, it's a psychological disaster for the GOOPers, modest gain for the Democrats. Intermediate, it's a disaster for the GOOPers, and, if Specter votes more in line with the Democrats, its a gain.

Long term, Toomey has very little probability of winning. If Specter runs unopposed in the primary, he should easily win the general - are disaffected Democrats going to vote for a third party candidate in the general? No - they'll vote for the candidate with the 'D' behind the name.

Another factor - if the Dems don't run a primary candidate, they save that money, and have more money to help other Democratic challengers and/or endangered incumbents.

And if Toomey runs without Specter in the primary, it could open up the primary to another GOOPer challenger. Since Toomey will get major funding from the Club for Growth, they will spend like crazy (Toomey was the former head of TCFG). Even if Toomey wins the primary, it will be expensive for him to run in the general. More TCFG funding required. The outcome of the MD-1 Congressional race was a blow to TCFG, along with several other recent elections TCFG has been involved in. Eventually, people will start to see a Club for Growth-backed candidate, and be turned off to that candidate, decreasing any future influence TCFG has in electoral politics.

Also, we know that people like Lush Rimbaugh, Manthrax Coulter, Bill O'Lielly, et. al., will come out big for Toomey. When he goes down to defeat, their influence will be further isolated to the extreme right of politics, and thus marginalized even further.

My summary: Short and mid-term, Specter's party switch isn't a big gain for the Democrats right now, but has big up potential. For the GOOPers, it is psychologically devastating - how many people will realize the GOOPer claim of being a 'big tent party' isn't true?

Long term - The Democrats will not need to pour as much money and resources into Pennsylvania to keep a Dem in the seat, and can use those now unneeded funds and resources into other races, thus potentially picking up several more currently GOOPer held seats, such as New Hampshire, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio and North Carolina, AND have additional funds to protect current possibly endangered Dems, such as Arkansas, Delaware and Nevada.

Mike in Maryland

My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965

CNN's Dana Bash is such a fucking GOP hack. Totall...

2009-04-28T18:22:29.618-04:00

CNN's Dana Bash is such a fucking GOP hack. Totally playing down the significance of a moderate abandoning the party, obediently taking the Cornhole line. In fact, the capper on her report left the impression that it's the Dems who have problems with "moderate" senators in their own party. Could you imagine how these so-called "reporters" would be framing it if Ben Nelson had switched parties? Apparently, John King's ugly bint reckons a minority of 38 wingnuts united is more powerful than a filibuster proof majority.

Secor314… I would guess that Toomey has already ...

2009-04-28T18:16:36.216-04:00

Secor314…

I would guess that Toomey has already lined up considerable support in the far-right reaches of the GOP, so if there are other, more moderate candidates interested in jumping into the race it will likely create a lot of friction. Infighting is not in the GOP’s best interests, but since they seem unable to keep from shooting themselves in the foot when presented with the opportunity perhaps a big ideological brawl is awaiting them in PA in 2010.

I think Tim Kaine’s remarks were good up until he got to this point—

“Coming on the heels of Democrat Scott Murphy's victory in a Republican leaning congressional district in New York state, Senator Specter's decision is additional proof that the Republican Party is in serious trouble because it has lost touch with the American people and their desire for change which was so on display in November.”

This is either salt-rubbing or gloating, and it doesn’t further the cause. By all means welcome Specter into the Democratic Party, but the reasons for his switch (e.g. the complete moral bankruptcy of the GOP) are self-evident. No need to strut about it. It makes you look bad.

Zig Zag Zell Miller responds to Specter becoming a...

2009-04-28T18:09:57.428-04:00

Zig Zag Zell Miller responds to Specter becoming a Democrat:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/4/28/725473/-Hey-Zell...

Indeed.

@ Vince While I tend to agree with you that Spect...

2009-04-28T18:06:41.344-04:00

@ Vince

While I tend to agree with you that Specter's defection doesn't help the progressive agenda in the long term, isn't there value in having 60 for the next 1.5 years, when much of the inaugural outlines of the Obama agenda are to be laid out?

If that's the case, the tradeoff is really a short term increase in the ability to get the progressive agenda moved forward -- but that then the Dems will need to concentrate more on other races to push the majority beyond 60 in the 2010 election - by going after NH, MO, and Bunning.

Isn't that a good thing for Dems, or at the very worst, a good short term thing for Dems and a punt on 2010 strategy?

Absolutely right!

@ enodo

If something is already calm, soft or smooth, mitigating it makes it more so, not less.

So,"it's an unmitigated pleasure to meet you " is less complimentary than "it's a mitigated pleasure to meet you"? Not at all.

The primary meaning of "mitigate" is to lessen, regardless whether the object is of a negative or positive nature.

With Norm Coleman gone and Arlen Specter becoming ...

2009-04-28T18:06:10.785-04:00

With Norm Coleman gone and Arlen Specter becoming a Democrat, the only Republican among the 45 or so Jewish members of Congress is Eric Cantor of Virginia. While it is true that my people have always found the Democratic party a better fit, there had long been a small but significant contingent of Jewish voices in the moderate wing of the Republican party. Now, it appears, the party of Jacob Javitz and Warren Rudman is all but dead. Olav ha-shalom.

GROG said: "@Apotropaios: I am truly an idiot." ...

2009-04-28T18:03:21.539-04:00

GROG said: "@Apotropaios:

I am truly an idiot."

Now I am 100% confidnet that GROG is neither PeteKent, nor Jack-be-nimble

Reportedly, Vice President Biden was "deeply invol...

2009-04-28T18:02:14.565-04:00

Reportedly, Vice President Biden was "deeply involved" in the talks with Specter to make the switch.

DNC Chairman Tim Kaine's statement:

I am pleased to offer Senator Specter my sincere congratulations on his decision to join the Democratic Party and I welcome him with open arms. Over nearly three decades in the United States Senate, Senator Specter has represented the people of Pennsylvania with honor, conviction, and an allegiance to deeply held principles that I know will continue to inform his decisions as a member of the Democratic caucus. Senator Specter courageously supported the President's economic recovery package while most Republicans played politics with our nation's economy. The Senator's willingness to set politics aside and be part of finding solutions to our nation's problems will find a welcome reception in the Democratic Party. Coming on the heels of Democrat Scott Murphy's victory in a Republican leaning congressional district in New York state, Senator Specter's decision is additional proof that the Republican Party is in serious trouble because it has lost touch with the American people and their desire for change which was so on display in November.

As Senator Specter noted, the Republican Party has drifted far to the right and seems more interested in ideology, conflict and obstruction than in working constructively to address the nation's problems, and no longer appeals to moderates, including Senator Specter. I commend Senator Specter on his decision to work with President Obama and Senate Democrats to help turn our economy around, create jobs and put the country back on the right track. We are thrilled to welcome Senator Specter into the Democratic fold and he can count on our full support.,

Jack-be-dim… Funny, but most polls have Obama’s ...

2009-04-28T18:01:35.627-04:00

Jack-be-dim…

Funny, but most polls have Obama’s approval rating in the high 60s.

Sounds like you have a bone to pick with reality. That’s a job for a shrink, not a comment forum.

You guys lost in November. You are losing as we speak. You will continue to lose far into the future because the GOP is bankrupt of morals, ideals, policies and concern for human beings.

Go share your gripes with PeteKent. You can follow him on Twitter!!