Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: On Making Mitch McConnell Wet His Pants

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2009-10-02T04:09:59.821-04:00

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2009-06-17T03:18:13.411-04:00

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2009-04-16T02:21:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-12T22:44:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-12T22:43:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-09T00:25:00.000-05:00

EV: For all those well left of center who are now ...

2008-12-16T23:56:00.000-05:00

EV: For all those well left of center who are now up in arms about GOP obstruction, please take a moment to step back and see what you were saying when the majority shoe was on the other foot.

Well, my position was the same regardless of who was in the majority.

Bipartisanship of the kind required by Rule XXII is the sole reason Social Security isn't privatized right now, and the sole reason we don't have drills in the ground in ANWR.

So be it. Let the majority take responsibility for what they pass. If what I want isn't the majority view, then I should be spending my time trying to shift people to my point of view, not using my minority status to block the will of the people.

And as I wrote above, you might see more moderation if both parties knew that what they proposed wouldn't be blocked by the minority party. Accountability can be a powerful moderating force. But the filibuster allows parties to not be held accountable for the positions they say they stand for because they know those positions stand no chance of becoming law.

@ Steve RothYou aren't seeing the Republicans read...

2008-12-16T21:35:00.000-05:00

@ Steve Roth

You aren't seeing the Republicans read the phone book because there's nothing, anywhere, in the Senate rules that Harry Reid or anyone else can use to make them do it. The extensive comments above explain why. The "reading the phonebook" filibuster is a thing of the movies and not reality.

The one exception to that reality in modern settings would only occur (1) once the majority had 60+ Senators ready to vote for cloture and (2) once a minority Senator decided, on his or her own, to try to monopolize the floor to prevent that 60+ vote coalition from actually invoking cloture. Since condition (1) occurs infrequently and condition (2) basically never occurs once (1) is satisfied [e.g. didn't happen even once in the 107th-109th Congresses], you never see people reading phone books in the Senate.

Oh and:"the Republicans are filibustering more and...

2008-12-16T19:21:00.000-05:00

Oh and:

"the Republicans are filibustering more and more often"

No they aren't. When was the last time you saw a filibuster?

"Harry Reid has been exceptionally ineffective as ...

2008-12-16T19:18:00.000-05:00

"Harry Reid has been exceptionally ineffective as the Democrats' majority leader"

Okay, fine.

But goshdarnit, Nate, that doesn't answer the question. Neither does the count of of clotures.

And, (thanks, B.R.) it's a question I and my friends have been utterly stumped by for years. Googled, followed blogs, still just plain stumped.

Try again: why doesn't Reid make them read the phone book?

The People's Business said: Simply put, it means t...

2008-12-16T19:12:00.000-05:00

The People's Business said: Simply put, it means that we can't make major structural changes without eliciting at least some support from both parties. Why is that a bad thing?

100% agreed. Senate Rule XXII is one of the most important structural features of our current federal government, and we should cherish, rather than object to its continued vitality. The Nuclear Option was a horrible idea that ran directly counter to the intentions of the Framers, it was rightly rejected (by R's and D's alike!) a few years ago, and it should be rejected if proposed once more.

For all those well left of center who are now up in arms about GOP obstruction, please take a moment to step back and see what you were saying when the majority shoe was on the other foot. Requiring some modicum of bipartisanship on major issues is a good thing in the long run, even if it means that EFCA doesn't pass as-is or whatever else you may prefer in the short run. Bipartisanship of the kind required by Rule XXII is the sole reason Social Security isn't privatized right now, and the sole reason we don't have drills in the ground in ANWR. It is the sole reason lots of bad ideas aren't law, in fact. Yes, it stops some good ideas from becoming law as well, but on the whole it seems that the rule gives us more than it takes away.

We're just NOW realizing that the filibuster can b...

2008-12-16T15:54:00.000-05:00

We're just NOW realizing that the filibuster can be used to impede progress? It was the Constitution's gift to America when Democrats were in the minority.

Now, it's just da#n inconvenient.

Simply put, it means that we can't make major structural changes without eliciting at least some support from both parties. Why is that a bad thing?

thx1200: I hated (and still hate) the so-called "N...

2008-12-16T15:45:00.000-05:00

thx1200: I hated (and still hate) the so-called "Nuclear Option" since I feel that fillibustering is an important procedural aspect of the U.S. Senate.

Well, there's something to be said for making political parties take their stances seriously. Presently, the majority party can take stances its members may not really believe because they know the minority will block the legislation. When Republicans are in the majority, they can propose big tax cuts or vouchers for DC schools knowing the won't get through. And the same goes for Democrats.

But what if the majority really did rule? Would Republicans still advocate hugely irresponsible tax cuts (more irresponsible than the ones we got) if they actually might pass? Would all of them support vouchers if they knew they would be held accountable for the results? Would they still have pushed so hard for privatizing Social Security, or establishing a flat tax? I doubt it.

The threat of real accountability might lead to less posturing and more moderation on both sides. And that's where the nation's business gets done, even if it's not where I happen to be.

I've gotten much of this argument from Timothy Noah's article at Slate: http://www.slate.com/id/2117015/

So the presiding officer would recognize Sen. Reid...

2008-12-16T14:56:00.000-05:00

So the presiding officer would recognize Sen. Reid assuming nobody else already had the floor. Once recognized, then Reid would make a motion to proceed to S. 1 -- i.e. to start debate on S. 1. Prior to that motion, no bill or matter is technically before the Senate. Reid's motion would take the following form: "I ask unanimous consent that the Senate proceed to S. 1, the CHANGE Act of 2009."

Assuming that a Republican objects to Reid's UC (e.g. his motion to proceed), the presiding officer would state that "objection is heard." At that point, the pending question before the Senate is WHETHER TO BEGIN DEBATE ON S.1. The Senate isn't actually on S. 1 yet. It is on the motion to proceed to S. 1. That's an important distinction that most people don't understand.

Why has a motion to proceed to have unanimous consent? This would mean that every single Senator could block all motions to whatever by dissenting unless he doesn't leave. And two of them could block such a motion undefinately.

BTW: Thank's to ya'll. This was one of the most informative discussions I've seen in a long time. Easily worth of 20 CP.

It's about time we started hanging our politicians...

2008-12-16T14:25:00.000-05:00

It's about time we started hanging our politicians from street lamps, like they do in 3rd world nations.

Since we now have a 3rd world economy, what the fuck are we waiting for?

Pelosi first, then Reid, then on with the rest.

@Michael:Bob X wrote: "Huey Long was once reduced ...

2008-12-16T13:31:00.000-05:00

@Michael:
Bob X wrote: "Huey Long was once reduced to reading Cajun recipes from a helpful cookbook (I don't remember what bill that was about, probably something noxious like letting darkies votes)."
I doubt it. Huey Long was a populist (albeit also a demagogue and corrupt), and because of all he did for the poor of all colors in Louisiana, he was popular with whites and blacks alike. Don't get me wrong: I'm not saying that he was a radical civil rights fighter or anything, but for a Southern governor, he was pretty damn good in terms of how he treated his black citizens. I will happily accept correction if the documentaries and oral testimonies I've witnessed gave a grossly incomplete picture.

Mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa. Indeed, Huey's filibusters were against bills that he considered to be class-warfare against the poor; I had his filibusters confused with Strom Thurmond's, an insult to Huey's memory which he did not deserve.

I hated (and still hate) the so-called "Nuclear Op...

2008-12-16T12:56:00.000-05:00

I hated (and still hate) the so-called "Nuclear Option" since I feel that fillibustering is an important procedural aspect of the U.S. Senate. It's just about the only power a minority party can weild and I think that's a good thing, even when Republicans hold that power.

However, I echo several other commenters when I say WHAT THE HECK HAPPENED TO IT?! It was all the rage to threaten it just a few years ago and now it's a distant memory in beltway past.

Harry Reid needs to be replaced. I was never crazy about him, but the standing ovation for Ted Stevens was the last straw. A true "Senator of the people" with the slogan "give 'em hell, Harry" would have pounded the gabble and yelled, "What the hell is wrong with you people?! This man is a convicted criminal! ...And an asshole to boot! Get back to work!"

wow. evidence that "ignorant Republican" is redund...

2008-12-16T10:19:00.000-05:00

wow. evidence that "ignorant Republican" is redundant.

Why you gays gotta keep beating up on me? huh? Y'a...

2008-12-16T03:58:00.000-05:00

Why you gays gotta keep beating up on me? huh? Y'all make me wanna cry!

Tennessee posted certified numbers today and, in a...

2008-12-16T03:00:00.000-05:00

Tennessee posted certified numbers today and, in addition, some minor party and other numbers were revised over at wikipedia.org. Here are the current 538 projection-actual result differences ranging from those most off in Obama's favor to those most off in McCain's favor:

Arkansas -8.9%
Louisiana -8.7%
Alaska -7.3%
Wyoming -6.9%
North Dakota -5.9%
Oklahoma -5.7%
Idaho -4.8%
Arizona -3.6%
West Virginia -3.3%
Kentucky -2.6%
Utah -2.4%
Tennessee -2.2%
Iowa -2.2%
Mississippi -1.9%
Georgia -1.5%
Kansas -1.4%
Texas -1.0%
North Carolina -0.7%
Nebraska -0.5%
New Hampshire -0.2%
Missouri 0.1%
Minnesota 0.1%
South Dakota 0.3%
Montana 0.4%
Virginia 0.6%
South Carolina 0.7%
Alabama 0.7%
Delaware 0.9%
New Jersey 1.0%
Florida 1.1%
Ohio 1.1%
U.S. Total 1.2%
New York 1.3%
Oregon 1.6%
Pennsylvania 2.3%
Colorado 2.4%
Wisconsin 2.4%
Maryland 2.4%
Indiana 2.6%
Washington 2.8%
Maine 2.8%
Connecticut 2.9%
Illinois 3.3%
California 3.5%
Rhode Island 3.8%
Michigan 3.9%
New Mexico 5.4%
Massachusetts 5.9%
Nevada 7.7%
Vermont 12.4%
Hawaii 17.8%
District of Columbia 26.5%

The state numbers for Kentucky thru Illinois and also Rhode Island are within the MOE.

Massachusetts has yet to post certified numbers.

Nate,Sean,listen it's not certainly my business bu...

2008-12-16T02:47:00.000-05:00

Nate,Sean,
listen it's not certainly my business but,I wonder...this thing from A.I.R.-vs-538 is getting more personal day after day.
for your safety maybe it's time to hire someone to start investigation.

ok.
I said it.
bye.
;)

DCM in FL said... anyone else on the site remember...

2008-12-16T02:35:00.000-05:00

DCM in FL said...
anyone else on the site remember when just 8 months ago 538 wasz hosted by a mystery poster & threads were created by 'Poblano' ?

December 16, 2008 12:16 AM

##########
Yes I do remember.
Plus I do remember Sean&Brett "on the road" amazing reports.
And eventually I do remember you DCM ,daily telling about your canvassing in Florida(Volusia county...am I right ???? ) and many others bloggers doing the same.
Holy mackerel,
what a wonderful site.
ok.
time to stuck whit my job for me.
good night to you all.
:)

@DCMCollapsing posts works the same in Safari, too...

2008-12-16T02:27:00.000-05:00

@DCM

Collapsing posts works the same in Safari, too when you click on the Blogger symbol or in a ghost area in the upper right corner of the post. However I think they re-open when you refresh or reload the comment page.

wv: inate - what happens when 538 is bought by Apple

I've mentioned this before but wouldn't it be poss...

2008-12-16T02:18:00.000-05:00

I've mentioned this before but wouldn't it be possible to use a different service to host the site? Other places I post have really cool protections and features such as "post collapsed by the community", or rate a comment. Also, tracking features so that you can keep up with conversation threads you had in previous articles. Newsvine comes to mind; very user friendly.

All scoffed when Palin told a second grade class t...

2008-12-16T01:44:00.000-05:00

All scoffed when Palin told a second grade class that she would work with the Congress to pass legislation.

And yet Nat has Biden running up to Capitol Hill to do what Reid cannot.

Call Chris Matthews.