Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Georgia Runoff Will Be Tough on Pollsters

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2009-04-16T04:47:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T21:45:00.000-05:00

i voted monday in DeKalb County, Georgia (predomin...

2008-11-17T23:44:00.000-05:00

i voted monday in DeKalb County, Georgia (predominantly Black county in metro Atlanta). Surprisingly, there were a large number of voters and reports were that our county had the highest number of voters on the first day of early voters (like during the general election).

the Obama campaign has geared back up and they are quite active in pushing voters to return to the polls for Jim Martin... i have a feeling that this is going to be a very close race (1 or 2 percentage points) since Martin did much better than Obama.

I have to say I think people are forgetting things...

2008-11-14T16:28:00.000-05:00

I have to say I think people are forgetting things while commenting. It is not just republican (conservative) vs. democrat (liberal). Some politicians are more conservative, liberal or moderate than others. Georgia is a really conservative place. Many democratic candidates for senate (and depending on which district... representatives) are moderately conservative, while the republican candidates tend to be really conservative.

For this reason Martin started off distancing himself from Obama. Earlier in the race Obama was not doing well in Georgia. He made gains near the end.

If elected Martin will be one of the more moderate/conservative democrats in the Senate. Chambliss will be one of the more conservative republicans in the senate.

Georgia is a conservative state and Martin has to appeal to conservative moderates to win. He needs to make claims or working with Obama, but he can't claim to be too much like Obama or he will lose. I would not underestimate both the conservative vote in Georgia.

Conservative-minded Georgians will be motivated to...

2008-11-14T12:18:00.000-05:00

Conservative-minded Georgians will be motivated to make sure they prevent the 60th seat from going to the Left. The balance of power will be extremely important to many Republicans and moderates in the state, and they will turn out to make their voices heard. If there had to be a state to take a stand, Georgia is the one. Conservative values still matter here, and Georgians aren't embarrassed or intimidated to call themselves conservatives. They have insight into the bigger picture of what is likely to happen in America, and they have the faith, brains and determination to deliver a power check. Go to: GOPTrust.com

It was established more than 40 years ago that sel...

2008-11-14T03:46:00.000-05:00

It was established more than 40 years ago that self-reported voting rates are higher than actual ones.

Roughly have of that difference at the national level has to do with sample self-selection. It's important to keep in mind that participating in political polls is itself sort of like participating in politics. Those who are more intrested in politics, who care more about the election, are more likely to agree to participate in a survey when they are contacted by a pollster.

The remaining half of the "extra" self-reported voting turnout is a result of exaggeration: non voters who say they plan to vote. (In post-election surveys: actual nonvoters who say they actually voted.)

I wouldn't call these folks liars. They are typically just politically committed folks who feel that they ought to vote and who want to look good to the interviewers. They are the kinds of people who are in fact more likely to vote than those who say prior to an election that they don't intend to vote -- but some of those folks just aren't going to show up on election day.

(There's a large body of research on this question.)

In Georgia, the Senate race could have been decide...

2008-11-14T03:09:00.000-05:00

In Georgia, the Senate race could have been decided without a runoff had Jim Martin gotten on board with Barack Obama early in the race. So I place the blame directly at the feet of his campaign staff. African Americans turned out in record numbers for Georgia’s early voting, and at that time Martin’s commercials did not even mention Obama. I know many first time voters who did not even vote for the Senate seat at all because they saw it as a choice between two white guys with no connection to Obama. The Martin camp tried to distance itself from Obama in an effort to get the white racist vote… and it backfired. Now all of Martin’s new commercials for the runoff include Obama’s victory speech, but it’s too late. Many AA voters are seeing right through this attempt to gain AA support now, and we equate it to the white Southern strategies of the past.

Ed: I do not believe that Nate has any scientific ...

2008-11-13T20:45:00.000-05:00

Ed: I do not believe that Nate has any scientific answer to the ballot question. Nate was pointing out the confusion that could be caused by different ballot designs (and the fact that Minnesota seems to have the most confusing of possible ballots, per the sample I linked). The only answer to the question is which is the real design used by Minnesota.

Good luck, pk and chambliss- they will both need i...

2008-11-13T18:21:00.000-05:00

Good luck, pk and chambliss- they will both need it.

Chambliss will win in a walk. Now that Obama is n...

2008-11-13T16:23:00.000-05:00

Chambliss will win in a walk. Now that Obama is not running the people he brought to the polls will not care.

Recall he said it was all about "us". We will soon see that without "him" "us" don't come to the polls.

@ PA JohnYou're right, I'm getting my run-offs/rec...

2008-11-13T16:18:00.000-05:00

@ PA John

You're right, I'm getting my run-offs/recounts mixed up. lol.

There is an amazing amount of valuable stuff here....

2008-11-13T15:03:00.000-05:00

There is an amazing amount of valuable stuff here. Standout :soozle[10:14AM]

This would be a good time to link or repost ON THE ROAD's earlier coverage of GA (and to send them back!

The key will be early voting, but it is only a 3-day week due to Thanksgiving, and I would suggest the GOTV people offer to take voters to the poll and then give them a ride to the mall, grocery store, foodbank—if that’s legal. Funding should go to finding people who need their hand held and taking them to vote early. Election day many polling stations will be scary places, especially if your “papers are not in order.”

A lot of your posters remarks are fairly contemptuous of these voters. Who does that help? We’ve just had an amazing (if scientifically trivial) victory for optimism.

Nate, isn't it possible that the voter rolls are f...

2008-11-13T14:32:00.000-05:00

Nate, isn't it possible that the voter rolls are full of people who have died or moved away, largely accounting for the discrepancy between 87% of those polled intending to vote and 67% of those registered voting? Every time I go to vote, I see Uma Thurman's name on the electoral register next to mine... but she hasn't lived in my precinct for years!

dawolf, In fact, just think about it - it typicall...

2008-11-13T14:22:00.000-05:00

dawolf,

In fact, just think about it - it typically takes about 10 seconds (that's a rough estimate based on having a ballot with a lot of info to make it more confusing - in the uk its much faster, maybe 3 seconds a ballot) to hand count a ballot per item. So unless the hand counters are being paid $360 an hour, it won't cost a dollar an item. A more reasonable price is a factor of 10 smaller than your estimate, and possible as low as a fator of 30 smaller.

I just double-checked, and this site gives an estimate of $1.2 million to hand count 2 million votes in 2004 for a single race, so I may be off by a factor of 2 at most.

http://www.aaas.org/spp/sfrl/projects/evoting/gilbert.shtml

When hand-counting ballots, it's not just one person doing the counting. There are 4 people at a minimum (two counters, and two or more observers) at each recount location or precinct. Plus, they usually have to rent the space to host the recount(s), which costs additional money above and beyond just paying the salaries. Plus, they often have to pay extra security to guard the ballots during the process. Plus a dozen other things that I'm not thinking of at the moment...

My understanding of Georgia election law is that o...

2008-11-13T14:18:00.000-05:00

My understanding of Georgia election law is that one may vote in a Runnoff Election ONLY if one voted in the General Election that caused the runoff. Thus, the universe of possible voters on Decembbr 2nd is already established and it remains only to be seen who will actually turn out a SECOND time.

correction: R2K poll actually 49-46 Chambliss. I...

2008-11-13T14:10:00.000-05:00

correction: R2K poll actually 49-46 Chambliss. IMO, this is a tough race for Martin because the AA turnout will be less than November 4. Also, on the economy, Martin (in a pre 11/4 poll) only had a 2% edge on the economy.

For 2009, it would be really cool if Nate could pu...

2008-11-13T14:03:00.000-05:00

For 2009, it would be really cool if Nate could put together a 538 Regression function for congressional incumbents (maybe do House and Senate separately). This would be a tremendous undertaking, but very useful in monitoring congressional voting trends.

The 538 Regression for GA was 50.6/47.4 for the GOP, which is probably a decent proxy for political leanings. As an earlier poster said, its a winnable election for Martin, but it's going to be an uphill battle.

It seems to me that a big part of runoff elections is that there aren't very many undecideds. That would seem to disadvantage the challenger since undecideds tend to break against the incumbent all other things being equal.

According to Rasmussen 10-31-08, here are the favorable/unfavorable for Chambliss:
-Very Favorable: 32%
-Somewhat Favorable: 26%
-Somewhat Unfavorable: 17%
-Very Unfavorable: 23%
-Unsure: 1%

And for Martin:
-Very Favorable: 22%
-Somewhat Favorable: 26%
-Somewhat Unfavorable: 16%
-Very Unfavorable: 31%
-Unsure: 5%

N=500, M/E +/- 4.5

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/georgia/election_2008_georgia_senate

What's interesting is that despite a aggregate 58% approval rating (versus Martin's 48%), Chambliss failed to get 50% of the vote. Conversely, Chambliss has a 40% unapproval rating to Martin's 47%.

What remains missing is the voters' relative enthusiasm for the third party candidate--my gut tells me that a lot of those who voted for a third-party last Tuesday stay home next month.

@mclever2. It's very expensive. Using a machine to...

2008-11-13T13:49:00.000-05:00

@mclever

2. It's very expensive. Using a machine to count costs about $100,000 to count a million ballots on all 30 election items. To hand-count the votes, costs about a dollar per vote per item. So, if there are 30 items on the ballot, and you hand-count everything, it could cost $30,000,000 to hand count all of the ballots, compared to $100,000 to machine scan them all. That's why they only want to hand-count the races that are extremely close, potentially saving the state millions of dollars.

I live in the uk. It doesn't cost anywhere near that much.

In fact, just think about it - it typically takes about 10 seconds (that's a rough estimate based on having a ballot with a lot of info to make it more confusing - in the uk its much faster, maybe 3 seconds a ballot) to hand count a ballot per item. So unless the hand counters are being paid $360 an hour, it won't cost a dollar an item. A more reasonable price is a factor of 10 smaller than your estimate, and possible as low as a fator of 30 smaller.

Of course, in the uk it's much simpler as it's a rare election where you have to vote for more than one or two people. Our elections simply don't cost much compared to the US model with so many things on the ballot and different ballots in different states.

It's also IMO much harder to rig a uk general election but that's a different matter....

R2K poll:Chambliss 49Martin 47Unfavorables up s...

2008-11-13T13:25:00.000-05:00

R2K poll:

Chambliss 49
Martin 47

Unfavorables up slightly for both. Obama is reportedly sending his Ohio field staff into Georgia.

Well, the part about why they don't hand count eve...

2008-11-13T13:22:00.000-05:00

Well, the part about why they don't hand count everything is pretty obvious when you note that Minnesota doesn't expect their recount to be done before December.

Most of the time the machine+unintentional error rate is lower than the margin of victory, so there's no sense in being 'perfect'. A fast imperfect count is infinitely better than a slow accurate one, since the result isn't changed.

It will be interesting to see whether that remains true if more states abandon the winner-take-all electoral method.