Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: About that McCain +4

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2009-09-11T07:11:05.418-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:19:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:19:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-15T02:57:00.000-05:00

For all of you whiners claiming that this site is ...

2008-08-07T16:17:00.000-04:00

For all of you whiners claiming that this site is biased toward Obama: pop on over to www.electionprojection.com. That site is run by an unabashedly conservative Republican...and he consistently has Obama thrashing McCain soundly, even as he sounds more disappointed with every post he makes.

I don't quite understand why people bother to come...

2008-07-29T21:20:00.000-04:00

I don't quite understand why people bother to come to this website if they are going to simply ignore the mathematical analysis and accuse the analysts of "bias".

Bad polling practices should be exposed, not judged solely upon whether the result favors a particular candidate.

test

2008-07-29T17:28:00.000-04:00

test

Likely voter models are useless. It's much better ...

2008-07-29T15:02:00.000-04:00

Likely voter models are useless. It's much better to just include options "other candidate", "won't vote" and "undecided" to the option "Obama" and "McCain".

higglytown - You are exactly right. Gallup is a 3...

2008-07-29T13:27:00.000-04:00

higglytown -

You are exactly right. Gallup is a 3 day rolling average, just like Rasmussen. That is why I expect Obama's Gallup numbers to erode today and tomorrow.

His Friday Gallup number was HUGE (probably +13 or so). Sunday was a little bit back to Earth. Yesterday will likely look about the same.

Once those massive Friday numbers fall out, Gallup will settle at around +3-4 for Obama.

Why were those Friday numbers so MASSIVE? Well, every loyal Democrat was at home to watch the speech, right? That means you are home to answer your phone. Do you think those guys are not going to participate?

I think Rasmussen is going to be tied tomorrow...just a hunch. All signs point to McCain winning or tied in the last 2 days of polling on Rasmussen.

This poll is likely an outlier, but is part of the...

2008-07-29T13:17:00.000-04:00

This poll is likely an outlier, but is part of the 5 day trend that say Obama peak on Thursday while enter a free fall that has continued through yesterday.

If you look at Rasmussen, the most reliable of the tracking polls, he has eroded from +6 to +5, +3, to +1.

If you back out the likely daily totals, the trend is even more ominous, where Obama was probably +8 on Thursday eroding to -1 yesterday. This is an approximation, but the trend has got to be correct.

Gallup has shown some slight erosion as well, though less dramatic. Let's see what today looks like. My prediction is that Obama will slide another 2 points.

Final point...I tend to view the Sunday polls as the most accurate. This is the time when most people are home and the participation rates tend to be much higher. Any other time of the week introduces a lot of bias because some people work.

The USA Today Poll was largely taken on Sunday, and the Rasmussen Sunday numbers showed a steep dropoff for Obama as did Gallup.

...this may be overstated, but the trend is real.

What time does Gallup release its daily tracker? T...

2008-07-29T11:31:00.000-04:00

What time does Gallup release its daily tracker? Today would be artificially high because of the weekends huge bounce up, but then after Wednesday we should have 3 days to balance out that one really high day for the Gallup tracker. Am I right it takes 3 days to completely correct one bad way off polling day on the tracker? In other words day one the bounce happens, the bounce disappears three days later right?

Maybe Gallup is right, Obama's lead appears to be ...

2008-07-29T11:23:00.000-04:00

Maybe Gallup is right, Obama's lead appears to be in the African American and under 30 crowd. Maybe these crowds are 8 times more likely not to vote than the McCain demographics of older established white working and upper class.

I think it is too early to truly assess the impact...

2008-07-29T09:04:00.000-04:00

I think it is too early to truly assess the impact of Obama’s trip on the polls. Most of the recent spate of polls were taken during the trip and reflect the warm glow engendered by the pictures and the spectacular crowd Obama attracted in Germany.

As I have argued in a number of other blogs, Obama I think missed his trajectory on the trip, playing to the left wing establishment that supports the sort of one-world rhetoric that was the underpinning of his largely underwhelming speech in Berlin. I truly believe that the working class swing voters that Obama has been trying to woo since the Ohio primary were actually turned off by that montage or perhaps initially taken aback and will soon begin to feel that something about the whole thing just sticks in their craw.

Still, Obama scored points (and not just the treys he shot with the troops), though he lost some too: taking hits on the Surge and his failure to visit with the injured soldiers in Germany.

There are important policy debates to be had over the future of Iraq and Afghanistan and who is better suited to further US interests. Also, the energy issue continues to loom as the wedge issue of the campaign, along with issues regarding the economy along with taxes and spending.

Given how fresh the trip is, it is ludicrous to think that any poll is properly measuring the longer term reaction, particularly where the horizon stretches for nearly 100 days.

This election will either be a McCain blow out as voters come to reject the inexperienced and flip flopping African American candidate over the trusted yet maverick, long experienced White Senator with the personally courageous history; or it will be a narrow win for Obama, as voters decide to take the chance on the fresh face and the different approach because they have had enough of the status quo and they identify it with failed Republican polices and lump McCain in with it and them. Obama, I am sorry to tell you, has too high a set of negatives to ever really achieve the kind of landslide that the Democrat partisans are swooning for.

How’s that for banal analyses?

A month ago I saw this race as a narrow win for Obama, but now I am not so sure.

Still, McCain is running out of inflection points: the VP picks, the conventions, the debates. It is shame Obama never agreed to those 10 town hall meetings. If you had any doubt about his shrewdness, put it aside when you think of that!

If Obama has a higher supporter enthusiasm number ...

2008-07-29T02:14:00.000-04:00

If Obama has a higher supporter enthusiasm number how could he also have a higher percentage of likely voters who don't show up for him than McCain?

Hi, I'm new to this board and have a statistical q...

2008-07-29T02:08:00.000-04:00

Hi, I'm new to this board and have a statistical question. Is it true that to be considered a "likely voter" you have to have voted in previous elections, 2004, 2006 etc. If so, many people that are enthusiastic Obama folk will not be considered "likely voters" because they may be newly registered. One of the most porominent organizing campaigns of the Obama people os to register new voters who may be considered by the polsters to new to be "Likely voters". Is this possible or am I wrong.

Just an outlier it seems. Obama is ahead in every ...

2008-07-29T02:02:00.000-04:00

Just an outlier it seems. Obama is ahead in every other poll.

Brian Dell:Just wanted to point out some significa...

2008-07-29T02:01:00.000-04:00

Brian Dell:

Just wanted to point out some significant quibbles about your post.

1. The vote was 11 years ago. It says little about how he would vote today should he be put into a situation where it was relevant.

2. He did not vote to support rent control, only to leave it as a local option.

3. Given his district in the State Senate, he was probably voting their wishes.

That being said, rent control reminds me of Menkens's comment that for every complex issue there is a simple, attractice answer - that is wrong.

Now that registration is required, here's hoping t...

2008-07-29T01:49:00.000-04:00

Now that registration is required, here's hoping this is the last set of comments one has to wade through troll posts. Since I haven't, apologies if the following has been already been noted.

I think Gallup is in serious danger of losing credibility unless Frank Newport takes the presentation of their results more seriously.

The Gallup daily tracking poll does not use a likely voter screen, presumably in order to save time and because as Newport points out in his comments about the USA Today/Gallup poll, LV estimates 100 days out from an election are error-prone, at best. And no more so than this year.

So why on earth do they both use and report such results in their USA Today poll, especially when the results are so screwy?

Newport's blanket explanation of "statistical noise" simply doesn't cut it. He may well be right, of course, but it's a label, not an explanation.

There are clear differences between the daily tracking polls (both Gallup and Rasmussen) and the national media polls run on a monthly basis. And as Abramowitz has demonstrated, there is no obvious reason for the differences. (Call backs is one possible explanation that can't yet be disconfirmed.)

Considering the impact of the daily tracking polls on "averages," Gallup (and Rasmussen who does use a Likely Voter screen) owe everyone a better explanation of their methodologies than they are supplying.

The fact is that Obama is going to grind McCain up...

2008-07-29T01:31:00.000-04:00

The fact is that Obama is going to grind McCain up and sprinkle him over some breakfast cereal.

This is going to be a clear win, despite all the racist assholes in this country who would be voting their interests if it were not for Obama being black.

I guess that tribal loyalty thing comes first for some crackers.

xxx

2008-07-29T00:14:00.001-04:00

xxx

Obama's got a backstory almost everyone, including...

2008-07-29T00:14:00.000-04:00

Obama's got a backstory almost everyone, including myself, would love to vote for, but he's just wrong on policy. He supports rent control, for example, which even Krugman calls "economic stupidity". Well over 90% of economists think rent controls are bad policy. I could also mention the broad support of economists for free trade, something McCain has been far more stalwart on.

"So if nothing else these two polls show that more...

2008-07-28T23:31:00.000-04:00

"So if nothing else these two polls show that more Obama supporters fail the LV screen than last month, which may indicate a significant softening in his support or a decline in enthusiasm and commitment to voting."

Without knowing the exact questions used to screen, this is all just speculation, but one of the screens cited in the USA Today article was "how much thought they had given to the election", which actually could lead to the exact opposite result.

If somebody isn't a political junkie (i.e., isn't hanging out here) and has already made up their mind about who to vote for, it could be that such people aren't currently giving any thought at all to the election, because what's to think about? In other words, it could be that the candidate with LESS enthusiastic support could have supporters who are actually thinking more about the election, because they're still not sure who they're going to vote for.

This could be especially true last week. It could be that soft McCain supporters were particularly interested in seeing how Obama's world tour went.

But I freely admit that I'm just bullshitting off the top of my head here.

Very good analysis like usual. I for one am happy...

2008-07-28T23:27:00.000-04:00

Very good analysis like usual. I for one am happy you have gone to a sign in account. Unfortunately too many people abuse blogs for their own personal agendas.

tomthress, moondancer - Quoting an opinion, even F...

2008-07-28T23:23:00.000-04:00

tomthress, moondancer -

Quoting an opinion, even Frank Newsome's, reinforces that any analysis of the LV model is subjective until actual voting occurs.

Interestingly, the same USAToday/Gallup LV poll in June had Obama +6 vs. -4 in July. So if nothing else these two polls show that more Obama supporters fail the LV screen than last month, which may indicate a significant softening in his support or a decline in enthusiasm and commitment to voting.

Tom: I think the 60% turnout is out of all adults...

2008-07-28T23:07:00.000-04:00

Tom: I think the 60% turnout is out of all adults (or eligible voters, a slightly smaller subset). So they probably reached 1325 adults (if I've done my math right), of whom 900 were RVs. And they kept the 1325*0.6 = 791 who scored highest on their "likelihood" measure, as the LVs. I'm not sure what all goes into that likelihood measure...