Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Democratic VP Buyer's Guide

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2009-10-08T05:46:35.562-04:00

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2009-09-22T02:03:49.591-04:00

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2009-03-12T00:09:00.000-04:00

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Obama: No Need For Foreign Policy Help From V.P."I...

2008-08-18T08:15:00.000-04:00

Obama: No Need For Foreign Policy Help From V.P.

"I think a lot of people assume that might be some sort of military thing to make me look more Commander-in-Chief-like. Ironically, this is an area--foreign policy is the area where I am probably most confident that I know more and understand the world better than Senator Clinton or Senator McCain."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mayhill-fowler/obama-says-no-to-foreign_b_95357.html

Obviously, everyone thinks Obama needs a veep with foreign policy gravitas except Obama.

Sell the $#!7 out of Biden, Nunn, Clark, etc. etc.

Buy as much Sebelius, Kaine and Rendell as you can get your hands on.

What? Nothing about Ann Veneman's chances? Now I'l...

2008-08-18T04:57:00.000-04:00

What? Nothing about Ann Veneman's chances?

Now I'll be serious. I don't think Hillary will be on the ticker for one simple reason: even a junior Senator has more clout than a Vice President. A VP's powers are, effectively, to chair the Senate & act as the President's surrogate when asked. And whatever duties the President will give to the VP; the situation Cheney & Al Gore found themselves in are unusual. (In past administrations, the VP was effectively treated like the crazy aunt locked in the attic.)

Hillary knows this from experience. She also knows that unless she were to subordinate herself to Obama's own plans, she'd find herself so far out of the loop she'd be asking Bill for the latest news. (Do you think she wants to consider *that* possibility?)

Her best shot would be a cabinet position. And if she's smart, that is what she is angling for.

Geoff

Clinton is not going to "unite the party." The wom...

2008-08-18T03:38:00.000-04:00

Clinton is not going to "unite the party." The women who would vote for Obama only if he picks Clinton belongs to an extremely small minority. The reason Obama isn't getting a lot of votes from a lot of Democrats is pure and simple. It's been a difficult conclusion, but it's a fact. Racism. End of story.

Forgot to mention that Biden voted for the war as ...

2008-08-18T00:45:00.000-04:00

Forgot to mention that Biden voted for the war as well. Reed did not; Graham did not, among those names being tossed about. Obama's strongest selling point, his distinguishing characteristic, was that he opposed the war from the outset. He has shown the foreign policy 'heft' of the past seven years to be folly. The heavy-hitters have managed to get everything wrong. Even the sainted Colin Powell led us astray. Why choose a VP who contradicts that point?

I still think Mike Bloomberg would be a great grea...

2008-08-18T00:31:00.000-04:00

I still think Mike Bloomberg would be a great great pick, if he was into it. Maybe I'm crazy though. Yeah, I could be crazy.

I don't see a lot of appeal in Biden - he's all Wa...

2008-08-18T00:24:00.000-04:00

I don't see a lot of appeal in Biden - he's all Washington, and his two campaigns have been pretty sad. Bayh ? How can you have a VP who voted for the war? Seems to undercut everything Obama's been saying about his great judgment. Kaine - Good guy, but he'd pretty much have to guarantee swinging VA for this to be worthwhile. I don't know if he would be able to do that.
How about Tim Wirth - present him as an energy policy guru and a native of the heartland. UN will drive the right wing nuts, but who cares about them?

I disagree entirely with Nate's assessment of Geph...

2008-08-18T00:05:00.000-04:00

I disagree entirely with Nate's assessment of Gephardt. With the exception of his current employment (admittedly a pretty big issue on team Obama), he makes more sense than any other prospective choice.

He's not only been vetted, like Biden he's been vetted twice. He passes the "could be President" test with flying colors, being well known to the general public. He has a demonstrated ability to connect with and attract support from white, blue-collar voters, making him particularly valuable in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. He could potentially put Missouri in play. And, he understands protocol and will not outshine the nominee.

All that being said, if I were in the betting markets I'd be buying Kaine - lots and lots of Kaine.

PeteKent - I'd wait for another poll out of Nevada...

2008-08-17T22:52:00.000-04:00

PeteKent - I'd wait for another poll out of Nevada. Obama has been hammering McCain on Yucca Mountain, in the Nevada press, pretty hard this week. While it's something I disagree with Obama on as policy, it's politically a very strong pander.

This, of course, gives us Kerry states + Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada. That is 269-269.

Far from unlikely.

We'll see if there's any extra convention bounce, one way or the other, in Colorada.

On Biden - it may seem trivial, but his 1988 plagi...

2008-08-17T22:47:00.000-04:00

On Biden - it may seem trivial, but his 1988 plagiarism flap would be an unwelcome reminder of Obama's own Deval Patrick plagiarism flap in February which fell off the radar pretty quickly. Plus past accusations of resume-padding and personal vanity could play into McCain's characterization of Obama as overly self-interested. Biden's foot-in-mouth disease, rivalled only by Rendell, could give Obama the kind of well-intended distractions Bill Clinton did to Hillary.

VC: Cantor would wear out his welcome too soon. ...

2008-08-17T22:36:00.000-04:00

VC: Cantor would wear out his welcome too soon. He sounds like a whiny southern nerd.

I am about to redo my map by a hair and most likel...

2008-08-17T22:35:00.000-04:00

I am about to redo my map by a hair and most likely will give NV to McC if I see one more poll in his corner.

I think the western boomlet for Obama has faded and the reliably Repub states will revert to form, MT for instance.

Right now I give CO and NM to BO. I have him winning WI, MN and IA, along with NH. McCain win VA, FL and OH. McCain would need both NV and NH to win or just MI. CO plus NV would do it too. Drilling/fear of high home heating prices could tip MN plus WI, but then you have the makings of a landslide.

My current map gives BO 278 EVs, but sees him wobbling in a few key states.

I am about to redo my map by a hair and most likely will give NV to McC if I see one more poll in his corner.

I think the western boomlet for Obama has faded and the reliably Repub states will revert to form, MT for instance.

Right now I give CO and NM to BO. I have him winning WI, MN and IA, along with NH. McCain win VA, FL and OH. McCain would need both NV and NH to win or just MI. CO plus NV would do it too. Drilling/fear of high home heating prices could tip MN plus WI, but then you have the makings of a landslide.

My current map gives BO 278 EVs, but sees him wobbling in a few key states.

Screw Rob Portman, pick Eric Cantor.Just putting i...

2008-08-17T22:17:00.000-04:00

Screw Rob Portman, pick Eric Cantor.

Just putting in another good word for my Congressman and Virginia's favorite son VP pick for the GOP.

All this democrat navel gazing: What are they say...

2008-08-17T22:15:00.000-04:00

All this democrat navel gazing: What are they saying about McCain's pick? I am hoping he picks the youthful former Congressman from Cincinnati, Rob Portman. Portman is a former US Trade rep and Director of the OMB. While associated with the Bush admin he is widely popular and respected for his command of economic facts and geo-global realities. I think he would add gravitas on important non-foreign policy issues while burnishing the ticket’s appeal to values based voters. Did I mention he is from Ohio? The SE corner where all those Appalachians live.

Fillistro--Please don't let it be Hillary. We real...

2008-08-17T22:14:00.000-04:00

Fillistro--

Please don't let it be Hillary. We really don't want that. It would make Obama win in a landslide! Please don't!

Also, please don't throw me into the bramble bush.

On a casual read-through of this thread, it looks ...

2008-08-17T22:13:00.000-04:00

On a casual read-through of this thread, it looks to me like every single one of our reliable conservative voices has expressed opposition to Hillary as VP pick.

Now, why is that?

Hmmmm.....

Clark is being too heavily discounted. With the R...

2008-08-17T22:09:00.000-04:00

Clark is being too heavily discounted. With the Russian bear on the rise and Iranian provocation and Israeli response bubbling the pot, he alone among the choices would fit the bill.

Biden is an unpredictable show horse.

Bayh is boring and dull. Perhaps the best thing you can say about him is that he won't upstage Obama and brings the real chance of turning a red state blue.

Given the intrade odd, I'd buy Bayh and Clinton. Bayh is the safe bet and I'd pick up Clinton for her low odds but long legs. She alone can help Obama shake up a race that has been in the doldrums. Help him penetrate the voting blocks that continue to resist him. The unknown is that she may repel as many as she attracts.

$2 E box: Bayh, Clark and Clinton. It's worth a bet.

Adam,Completely agree that the Dems need to be les...

2008-08-17T22:02:00.000-04:00

Adam,

Completely agree that the Dems need to be less condescending.

It's a bit of a dilemma though, as to how to do it. Take Kerry for example. What was he supposed to say to win on the issues?
"Don't vote for Bush, he killed thousands of Americans and more than a hundred thousand Iraqi civilians in a war, for absolutely no good reason whatsoever"?

"Don't vote for Bush, he lowers taxes for people much wealthier than you, while running up a ridiculous deficit"?

"Don't vote for Bush, he tortures innocent people in a completely and categorically disproven belief that torture is an effective method of interrogation"?

"Don't vote for Bush, he authorized illegal spying in direct violation of the 4th amendment"?

etc.

The problem with all of this is it implicitly ALSO says the following:

"You guys are fucking idiots for voting for this guy in the first place"

And that, as you pointed out, doesn't sit well with voters, no matter how good the logic is.

Obama is going through an even worse problem: McCain is not Bush (though he supports many of the same policies, such as the aforementioned tax cuts), so he'll have to wait for the body count to rise in (what I expect to be) the McCain administration to say "hey! I told you so!" which will once again sound condescending, and the whole thing starts all over again.

Oh, and by the way, let me be a condescending liberal here for a moment: off-shore drilling will, optimistically, lower gas prices by a nickel in four years. Obama fell into the liberal trap of going with the facts instead of what people believe, but politicians can't afford to do that.

One other major reason to Sell on Hillary is fun...

2008-08-17T22:00:00.000-04:00

One other *major* reason to Sell on Hillary is fundraising.

If Obama had stuck to public financing, it wouldn't be a big deal. But, he continues to need donors to the end.

Hillary's individual (non-lobbyist, non PAC) donor support proved to be pathetic. If he maintained his strict "no lobbyist and no PAC money" stance, he'd even have to return a great deal of Hillary's general cash, leaving her (i.e., them) further in the hole. There are few untapped Clinton donors left and she's still in deep debt. Obama's anti-war grassroots dollars would dry up FAST.