Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Franken May Be Ceding Ground on Absentee Ballots

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2009-10-02T04:50:19.705-04:00

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2009-06-26T09:35:14.562-04:00

与本级人民政府统计机构统计调查取得的统计数据不一致的，再次同声传译提请全国人惠州翻译公司。大常委会商务口译审议的统计法修订草案明确规定：深圳翻译公司，国家广州翻译公司统计数据以同声传译设备租赁国家统计局公布的数据为准俄语翻译，
政府有关部门统计调查取得的统计数据，与本级人民政府统计机构统计调查取得的统计数据不一致的，县级深圳翻译以上地方深圳同声传译人民政府设立广州翻译公司独立的统计机构翻译公司，，乡、法语翻译
上海翻译公司镇人民政府设置统计工作岗位上海翻译公司
英语翻译，配备专职或者兼职同传设备
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会议设备租赁统计人员应当具备与其从事的统计工作相适应的专业知识和业务能力。

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2009-04-16T01:45:00.000-04:00

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2009-01-16T04:51:00.000-05:00

I have been working against Norm Coleman since he ...

2009-01-02T13:08:00.000-05:00

I have been working against Norm Coleman since he ran for Mayor of St Paul in 1993. He is perpetually unprincipled and insincere.

And Nate is brilliant and has been right about almost everything this year.

But the point of this analysis is quite possibly wrong. The point of this post as I understand it is that we should assume wronglfully rejected absentee ballot voters are the same as the regular voters in a given precinct. So if Coleman won a precinct 46-40-14, then we assume that that's how the wrongfully rejected ballots will come out.

But my sense is that wrongfully rejected absentees are seen as relatively pro-Franken, partly because of the places where the bulk of them come from, but also because like the hand-recounted ballots, the absentee and early voters were more democratic.

If that's so, and I don't know that it is, but I'm hoping that the army of smart lawyers helping Franken do, then Franken can let Coleman deny a few more than they deny and still come out ahead.

Also to give the latest examples, in Ramsey County (the 2nd largest with St Paul) 71 of the pile of 133 were agreed to by the campaigns, with the Coleman camp rejecting 21 and the Franken camp rejecting 33! In Wright County, a conservative area southwest of Minneapolis, the campaigns agreed to send 17 of 29, Franken's camp nixed 11 while Coleman rejected 1.

So it looks like Franken's people are protecting his flank.

I am delighted by the Coleman camp's desperate attempt to blow up the process that they agreed to last week. It clearly suggests that they don't see it likely that they will prevail with the 425 of the 800 ballots that are likely going to the state, that they need to win. Woo hoo!

Coleman's current request is all about the 654 cherry-picked ballots that were rightfully excluded. I can't see how the Supreme Court would agree (as stupid as their original move was) since they would then have to allow Franken to add whatever pile he would like to as well.

The rules are very clear about what a correct absentee ballot is and the rules are applied consistently across the state (that's what the first four piles are).

Green Libertarian -Yes, I mostly agree with your p...

2009-01-01T22:16:00.000-05:00

Green Libertarian -
Yes, I mostly agree with your procedure recommendations. The Minnesota Supreme Court should charge the SOS and some Board Judges to lay out exactly how to treat questionable issues of date, addrsss, etc. Then all 12,000 should be gone through again and sorted into three piles. 1. Rightly rejected absentee ballots, 2. Wrongly rejected absentee ballots, 3. Challenged ballots. Pile 2 would be sent to be counted. Pile 3. would go to the CBoard for final, final determination.
And of course the campaigns can challenge again during counting.
The Supreme Court really blew this one. What are the chances that Coleman can get an injuction to prevent the ballots from being counted on Friday?
Sure is fun to watch.

(2) Coleman is trying to expand the universe of pr...

2009-01-01T12:19:00.000-05:00

(2) Coleman is trying to expand the universe of previously rejected absentee ballots beyond the 1342 previously accepted.

The original MNSC allowed either side to expand the universe, of course, with veto power by the other side, or, I believe, elections officials.

Coleman is claiming that some county officials denied outright any ability for the campaigns to ask for consideration of AE's that the campaigns identified. Coleman is also alleging that some counties would not provide the necessary documentation such as absentee ballot applications, so that the campaigns could conduct their own signature match procedure.

Coleman is asking that the SC order the counties to provide all relevant info for evaluating the accept/reject decision made, allow either side to add additional AEs not identified by the counties put in the pile, and then all these relevant docs be sent to the SOS for evaluation by the SOS and representatives of the parties.
(sorry, I can't cut and paste out of a pdf right now, or I'd give you the exact language Coleman asked for.

I don't think that's clear enough as to a procedure to actually make the decision, doesn't say how any dispute would be resolved.

The first part of Coleman's approach seems sound, and would result, it would seem, with some subset of the 12,000 rejected AEs being evaluated for inclusion in pile 5 or not.

But as I said before, an EXACTING criteria must first be established on how to evaluate such info.

The first thing I would suggest is that the date issue be completed ignored, as it's simply irrelevant. You have a voter who's signature matches, a valid witness (registered, address matches) saying they saw the voter mark the ballot, who the hell cares what dates they put down.

Speaking of addresses, there's another area of minutia one could get into, and we've seen some of that already.

Some counties rejected AEs outright if the voter, and I presume, the witness, didn't write their city name down. Other counties, hell maybe other precincts within counties, just ignored that issue, if the street address matched their existing records.
Disparate treatment again.

Should somebody's vote get binned because they or their witness didn't write their city down? Seems absurd.

Another example was where the voter's address as written down was slightly different than existing records, like 17895 E. Broadway Ct., #117, and county records had it as 17895 E. Broadway Ct. #171.
Minor transposition error most likely? Should that get the voter's ballot tossed?

By the way, if anyone has any links to images or pdfs of actual absentee ballot envelopes (blank or not), instuctions for "certifying" such, or related info, please let us know.

why would Franken's requested additional ballots b...

2008-12-31T23:09:00.000-05:00

why would Franken's requested additional ballots be much smaller than Coleman's. Is there any reason to believe that red counties applied a more restrictive criteria than blue counties?

Coleman's latest action of appealing the absentee ...

2008-12-31T23:05:00.001-05:00

Coleman's latest action of appealing the absentee ballot procedure to the MNSC looks to have two motivations:

(1) Coleman is trying to cover his tracks in counties (as reported in Duluth, St. Louis Co.) where his forces forced the rejection of a large proportion of improperly rejected absentee ballots.

(2) Coleman is trying to expand the universe of previously rejected absentee ballots beyond the 1342 previously accepted.

I predict that he will be successful in achieving point (1), not so much with point (2).

Oh, and speaking of disparate treatment, SOME vote...

2008-12-31T23:05:00.000-05:00

Oh, and speaking of disparate treatment, SOME voters in SOME counties who sent in their AE early enough, and such AE had a flaw, were contacted by their county officials to come in or mail in that necessary to cure the defect. SOME of the time.

I've said all along Coleman has a point about this...

2008-12-31T23:02:00.000-05:00

I've said all along Coleman has a point about this, with Franken reluctantly agreeing in that he came up with a (much smaller) list of Pile 1-4 AE's he wanted reexamined for inclusion in Pile 5.

There is already evidence of disparate treatment of AEs, not surprising, with what, at least 8000 different people (on election night) examining and making a decision about them. (4000 precincts with a least 2 Election Judges examining.)

Minnesotans don't register their party preference,...

2008-12-31T22:54:00.000-05:00

Minnesotans don't register their party preference, else it would be REALLY easy cherry pick this from either side.

Coleman has a point, and Franken has basically said the same thing.

We don't KNOW that county officials have handled Absentee Ballot Envelopes in a consistent way.

I can see at least 5 different standards that were used for simply the date issue:
1. Completely ignored.
2. Voter dated, witness didn't, some officials accept, some don't.
3. Witness dated, voter didn't, some officials accept, some don't.
4. Voter and witness dates match, AE accepted.
5. Voter date is after witness date, some officials accept, some don't.
6. Voter date is before witness date, some officials accept, some don't.

What if a voter and their witness put down 11/06/09, supposedly AFTER election day, but the AE without question arrived before the deadline, which I think is 3 pm. on election day? Reject the AE because the voter and witness are confused about the date?

If there were erroneously ACCEPTED ballot envelopes, I don't think you can do anything about that. The envelope was preserved, if I read correctly, but the envelope was opened and ballot separated and counted, and could not be matched back, even if it's an (counted) AB pile.

The universe of possibly erroneously rejected AE's is not 1350, it's the total amount of them, some 12,000, I think.

The fairest and most accurate thing to do would be to have the CB or some other body, judicially ordered perhaps, to define EXACTING criteria, and go thru ALL 12,000 rejected AEs using the exacting criteria. At 1000 a day, that's 12 days.

THEN, you'd have to go thru the actual hand count of these, and then the challenge process.

Yep, tedious, menial, and ugly, but it's the only fair thing to do. The logistics will be difficult.

The MSC ordered the campaigns, the SoS, and the co...

2008-12-31T22:29:00.000-05:00

The MSC ordered the campaigns, the SoS, and the counties to come up with a process in which 1) the counties would identify the "fifth-pile" ballots, and 2) for the subset of those ballots where both campaigns agreed, they would be opened and counted. Coleman claims in response to the MSC, a process was agreed by all parties where the candidates could suggest additional ballots beyond the 1342 already identified. Some counties accepted the suggestions, others did not.

On first principles, Coleman has a point. It is not proper for different counties to have applied different standards in creating their "fifth-pile" ballots, either before or after considering the campaigns' suggested additions. So, to the extent that the additional suggestions are attempting to apply a uniform standard, that would now be centrally judged, that's defensible. And as ABowers pointed out, a central judge makes it easier for Franken to insure Coleman isn't getting away with rejecting ballots only in blue counties.

On the other hand, if Coleman's additional ballots are cherry-picked, and it would be up to Franken to find his corresponding cherry-picked additional ballots, we are back to Coleman's selective-county game, and that should be rejected.

If the Court feels there is enough time, they could request all rejected ballots be sent up for a fresh look by a central authority applying a consistent standard.

Coleman asks Minn. court to change absentee ruling...

2008-12-31T22:16:00.000-05:00

Coleman asks Minn. court to change absentee ruling

the latest from Minnesota,50 minuters ago:

http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/senate/36953744.html?elr=KArks8c7PaP3E77K_3c::D3aDhUec7PaP3E77K_0c::D3aDhUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiU

wv:surli What Coleman is making me,

He wants to add to that pile the 650+ cherry-pick...

2008-12-31T21:52:00.000-05:00

He wants to add to that pile the 650+ cherry-picked ballots his campaign selected specifically from counties friendly to his campaign

Didn't the MSC reject this the other day? Or am I dreaming?

Question:What was the last date approved by the MS...

2008-12-31T21:47:00.000-05:00

Question:

What was the last date approved by the MSC for the completion of the counting of the absentee ballots? Wasn't it Jan 2?

wv; frankler Horefully,this is a good sign for Al.

Do you realize, ABowers, that you are leaving out ...

2008-12-31T21:40:00.000-05:00

Do you realize, ABowers, that you are leaving out one critical piece of information in your explanation.

Coleman does not want JUST the wrongly rejected 5th pile sent up to the state for review. He wants to add to that pile the 650+ cherry-picked ballots his campaign selected specifically from counties friendly to his campaign - including ones from reports I've read that are CLEARLY not acceptable ballots (missing signatures on the envelope entirely, etc). We're talking about ballots which have now been rejected TWICE by those counties as being clearly not acceptable.

So are you saying you agree with that as well? And don't you find it the least bit suspect that this is not what Coleman wanted just two days ago, or two days before that, or when he filed his initial suit?

Coleman is clearly dancing and writhing and weaving any way he can to turn the tide in his favor. The fact that he happens to stumble into one (half-way) logical argument hardly makes him a candidate for sainthood for free and fair elections or a hero of disenfranchised voters.

Could it be that Franken is letting Coleman pick a...

2008-12-31T21:15:00.000-05:00

Could it be that Franken is letting Coleman pick and choose certain ballots in blue counties to exclude, then using examples of such same type ballots in red counties NOT rejected by Coleman to set up the court case?

I think maybe I agree with Norm Coleman for the fi...

2008-12-31T20:42:00.000-05:00

I think maybe I agree with Norm Coleman for the first time ever. He is now petitioning the Minnesota Supreme Court on the absentee ballot issue. He complains that there is no statewide standard for deciding that an absentee ballot was WRONGLY rejected. He wants ballots sent to the SOS for a determination.
The Minnesota Supreme Court's decision to allow political campaigns to reject valid ballots was crazy from the start. The local boards should send any wrongly rejected ballot to a central site, with the accompanying documentation, for a final review. The central site can set uniform standards. For example, do the witness's date and the voter's date have to match? Yes or No, it would be the same for everyone statewide. If someone was rejected as not registered, they could sent a copy of the voter's registration, etc.
This was always the only fair way. And it will prevent Norm Coleman from cherry picking which ballots to reject which was threatening Al Franken's count - as Nate pointed out. So it drags on a little longer. Lets do it right.
Obsessed Observer.

Looks like Norm Coleman's team is tossing one back...

2008-12-31T19:33:00.000-05:00

Looks like Norm Coleman's team is tossing one back to the MSC. Wanting to make sure that all those ballots the MSC ruled must be decided on by the counties and the campaigns are instead kicked up to the state level. (Oh, and of course adding the 650_ cherry-picked ones they want considered as well).

Here's hoping the MSC just kicks them in the nuts.

The fact that the games are still being played is the best sign I've seen all day that the Coleman team is convinced they are headed for a loss.

What an embarrassing spectacle.

We should remember that the MNSC ruling called for...

2008-12-31T18:38:00.000-05:00

We should remember that the MNSC ruling called for sanctions against either party if they were found to be gaming the absentee ballot selection procedure. A number of people pooh-poohed this as a weak reed, but I see Franken as filing suit under that provision before Monday rolls around. It shouldn't be difficult for his forces to produce a statewide summary of the handling of the improperly rejected absentee ballots, with counts of the rejections relative to the original totals. In fact, a decision by Franken to issue minimal challenges to improperly rejected absentee ballots would make it easier in this regard, since his lawyers could then pin most of the rejections on Coleman, making their argument clearer.

Occam's Razor suggests that it may be as simple as...

2008-12-31T17:27:00.000-05:00

Occam's Razor suggests that it may be as simple as Franken suffering from terminal Good Guy syndrome.

Moondancer- I agree that it's highly unlikely the ...

2008-12-31T17:16:00.000-05:00

Moondancer-

I agree that it's highly unlikely the Franken camp just lost all their sanity. On the face of it though, the Franken camp's decisions regarding the absentee ballots makes absolutely no sense at all.

The MN SC gave Franken clear authority to reject any or all of the fifth pile ballots. Why then is he risking his lead by allowing Coleman to cherry pick ballots? It just doesn't make sense.

I suspect the reason these decisions make no sense to us is that the Franken camp has some key bits of information that we don't have.

In my post above I guessed as to what that information might be, but it could be something else entirely. Or, yes it could be that Franken's camp has make a massive miscalculation. Although I do share your doubts that this has occurred.