Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: In Minnesota, End of the Beginning Starts Today

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2009-03-28T05:19:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-12T22:47:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T22:47:00.000-04:00

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2009-01-16T04:45:00.000-05:00

As you might expect Franken campaign expects to cl...

2009-01-03T19:23:00.000-05:00

As you might expect Franken campaign expects to claim victory and the Coleman lawyers are saying they will contest the results.

About to hold a conference. Expected to call the r...

2009-01-03T19:00:00.000-05:00

About to hold a conference. Expected to call the results...

The whole net swing from the unofficial election n...

2009-01-03T18:55:00.000-05:00

The whole net swing from the unofficial election night report until right now was about 1000 votes out of 2.3 million, or about 0.04%. That's a tiny swing. Some changes went one way, some the other, and the net was about 1000.

It went Franken's way, but it was going to go one way or the other (it was very unlikely to stay exactly the same.) There's nothing strange to explain. It was just an incredibly close election with a tiny adjustment at the end.

Great news!! Up by 223 based on judge's voice call...

2009-01-03T18:52:00.000-05:00

Great news!! Up by 223 based on judge's voice call!

oops, yeah the count did end apparently with Al +2...

2009-01-03T18:50:00.000-05:00

oops, yeah the count did end apparently with Al +223 [+/1]...

my 164 missing ballots were either DQ/undervotes or went to Barkley which makes sense

the 788 cumulative votes went to Franken & Colmean totals...

interesting spreadsheet:http://spreadsheets.google...

2009-01-03T18:47:00.000-05:00

interesting spreadsheet:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=ps4WhWhMtWl0dvl90V0FUDQ&output=html&gid=0

they're now saying after counting the new lead is 223 (which includes the previous lead of 49)

@Alex S."Is there a single clear reason why Colema...

2009-01-03T18:46:00.000-05:00

@Alex S.

"Is there a single clear reason why Coleman was ahead before and Franken is ahead after the recount? Legal decisions, counting mistakes, democratic advantage among first-time voters, or just chance?"

Margin of Error also plays a role here. If you were able to do the recount multiple times, the probability of getting the exact same total number of ballots each time is slim. But you would likely get a more accurate idea of who got the most votes. For ex. if you conducted 10 recounts, Franken may have gotten higher totals in eight out of 10 recounts even though the final tally might be different each time due to computer or human error. It's one of the reasons 538 works so well is that Nate runs the simulations multiple times. And it seem as if we'll be going for best 2 out 3 in the MN race unless a court stops the madness. Or your tantrums over which ballots are valid are successful enough to massage the numbers in your favour. Usually the candidate who is doing that already knows the odds are unfavourable.

over now, and still at 223 gain for Al.

2009-01-03T18:45:00.000-05:00

over now, and still at 223 gain for Al.

looks like Franken is up by over 220 with all vote...

2009-01-03T18:44:00.000-05:00

looks like Franken is up by over 220 with all votes counted. Will Coleman concede?

FRANKEN ahead by 223with 788 of 952 absentee ballo...

2009-01-03T18:43:00.000-05:00

FRANKEN ahead by 223

with 788 of 952 absentee ballots already counted

with only 164 remaining, Norm cannot catch up by my calcs...

I'm watching it live, and Franken is running away ...

2009-01-03T18:23:00.000-05:00

I'm watching it live, and Franken is running away with it - now ahead by over 170 votes overall.

If this holds up, the rest may be moot.

The count has started (about 5 pm). Can be watche...

2009-01-03T18:10:00.000-05:00

The count has started (about 5 pm). Can be watched here: http://theuptake.com/

I would say that this election is decending into f...

2009-01-03T17:34:00.000-05:00

I would say that this election is decending into farce, but nobody spins out a joke this long, not even a pro like Franken.

Even a shaggy dog story would have setttled down & raised puppies by now.

WV sphati - A close relative of the custard pie this authentic Italian version of spagetti & meatballs is airodynamicaly designed for throwing.

As of 4:30 PM EST, they were opening and numbering...

2009-01-03T16:50:00.000-05:00

As of 4:30 PM EST, they were opening and numbering all the absentee ballots. They have been at it since 10:30 this morning. Hope they finish soon as they will NOT start actually counting till they finish.
For fellow obsessed watchers, there are copies of the briefs filed by the Franken campaign, the county election officials and Coleman that were sent to the Supreme Court. (Google it.)
Franken's brief is excellent per ususal. Coleman's doesn't even make sense.
Franken requests the Supreme Court reject the Coleman request because:1. One - it is too late. Coleman's request for considering 600+ additional ballots did not get to the SOS on Monday by 3:00 pm.
2. Coleman first agreed to the procedure used and now is contesting the procedure. Legally you cannot have it both ways -Estoppel.
3. The 600+ plus additional absentee ballots that Coleman wants added make no sense. They have already been reviewed and rejected at least twice. The few that were reviewed for a third time this week were rejected again.
4. The order from the Supreme Court was faithfully followed by all concerned.
5. I carefully read the procedures the counties were to use to evaluate the rejected absentees and the procedures were very exact and well thought out. Proof was required at every step of the way.
The only real argument would be that Franken wrongly rejected some ballots but that point was never raised!!
The Supremes are going to reject this motion and Franken is going to win.

@jdk: I gave an example of a "binary" form of Benf...

2009-01-03T16:46:00.000-05:00

@jdk: I gave an example of a "binary" form of Benford's Law in an earlier thread here. See also the next-last pgh of this.

Regarding John Lott, I posted a summary of his academic misdeeds in a friend's blog here. And "lovable liberal" analyzed Coleman's 16 re-review challenges in detail: part1, part2, part3. Has anyone else done a similar review? More to my point, when I wrote that there was "considerable overlap" between Lott's and Coleman's lists, I wondered whether they might essentially coincide. Checking this would need seeing if the STrib links I found (newly?) broken when I posted have been fixed, chasing down ballots and rulings, and other legwork I may not have time for and wonder if anyone's done.

Just back from a great long holiday vac, seems like I haven't missed a single vote being counted, so far not even today! (@Opus 132: no tabulation yet, nada.) My quick take on recent posts and comments is that Coleman's rational strategy is (*) to keep Franken's edge below the margin of "reasonable doubt" over double-counting, which I've seen pegged at upwards of 150. This doubt might prevent the Senate from seating Franken even with certification, and the ultimate goal is a re-vote, as happened in the NH precedent. Apparently, Coleman's gaming (especially in St. Louis county) forced Franken to abandon a lily-white count-all-legal-votes-now policy, which also helps muddy waters for the contest phase. Clarity and resolution are simply not in his interests, and haven't been since the first day of the recount when it was clear Franken would gain.

WV "conse": now we have to wait for the quences.

I just find it sad that democracy was so unappeali...

2009-01-03T16:27:00.000-05:00

I just find it sad that democracy was so unappealing to at least one of the major parties in this election that this recount has become a battle of wits between lawyers.

If the pattern of Coleman's lawyers presenting worse legal arguments holds, Al Franken is the junior senator for the state of Minnesota.

Isn't there a running count of today's AE tabulati...

2009-01-03T14:50:00.000-05:00

Isn't there a running count of today's AE tabulation?

No votes were "found in the backseat of a car." S...

2009-01-03T14:44:00.000-05:00

No votes were "found in the backseat of a car." Some absentee ballots could not be delivered to some precincts on time to be counted before the polls closed. They were taken back to an elections office and stored in a secure room.

For the record, Coleman isn't doing anything close...

2009-01-03T14:39:00.000-05:00

For the record, Coleman isn't doing anything close to micro-targeting with his vetos. The election judge who got some notoriety this week for being rejected by the Coleman campaign has said that she voted for Coleman

Time for Nate or someone to subject counts to Benf...

2009-01-03T13:19:00.000-05:00

Time for Nate or someone to subject counts to Benford's Law.

Based on what we just heard on "The Uptake," it lo...

2009-01-03T13:06:00.000-05:00

Based on what we just heard on "The Uptake," it looks like the counting of absentee ballots won't finish and a count reported by the Canvassing Board til Sunday. That count would be submitted and likely certified by the Secretary of State on Monday or Tuesday, but would not take effect for at least 8 days, in order to allow 7 days for any challenge or contestation by either party to be adjudicated.

This is all independent of whatever the MN SC might decide in the meantime. But I agree with the previous comment that the MN SC is unlikely to allow a change in the rules of the game at this stage based on the Coleman challenge.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: In Minnesota, End of the Beginning Starts Today

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^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

As you might expect Franken campaign expects to cl...

About to hold a conference. Expected to call the r...

The whole net swing from the unofficial election n...

Great news!! Up by 223 based on judge's voice call...

oops, yeah the count did end apparently with Al +2...

interesting spreadsheet:http://spreadsheets.google...

@Alex S."Is there a single clear reason why Colema...

over now, and still at 223 gain for Al.

looks like Franken is up by over 220 with all vote...

FRANKEN ahead by 223with 788 of 952 absentee ballo...

I'm watching it live, and Franken is running away ...

The count has started (about 5 pm). Can be watche...

I would say that this election is decending into f...

As of 4:30 PM EST, they were opening and numbering...

@jdk: I gave an example of a "binary" form of Benf...

I just find it sad that democracy was so unappeali...

Isn't there a running count of today's AE tabulati...

No votes were "found in the backseat of a car." S...

For the record, Coleman isn't doing anything close...

Time for Nate or someone to subject counts to Benf...

Based on what we just heard on "The Uptake," it lo...

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