Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Why are New Jersey Politicians Always Rich? An An...

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2009-10-08T08:06:41.936-04:00

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2009-09-11T01:51:13.207-04:00

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2009-03-11T05:48:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-12T22:54:00.000-05:00

Actually, there is one network based in NJ: WMGM 4...

2008-10-28T11:28:00.000-04:00

Actually, there is one network based in NJ: WMGM 40, an NBC affiliate based in Atlantic City. However, the entire area that WMGM covers is served by the Philadelphia market. I don't think anyone actually watches WMGM (except sometimes for local news). Most people just watch the Philadelphia NBC station, which ironically often has better reception (even at the Shore).

It's funny... for those who live in the middle of both the NY and Philly media markets, cable companies often broadcast network affiliates from both markets but block parallel programming on the affiliates that don't actually serve the town according to FCC regulation. Yet, many people in South Jersey have the option of two redundant NBC networks.

The discussion of major and minor television marke...

2008-07-07T19:04:00.000-04:00

The discussion of major and minor television markets is more germane for Congressional races than for any other form of federal election. A House race in a major television market (NYC-LA-Chicago and so on) is prohibitively expensive when it comes to advertising on broadcast television, since a candidate is wasting money on eyeballs in dozens of other CDs. At Tyndall Report we ran an analysis of the swing districts in the Republican landslide of 1994 that demonstrated the efficiency of buying advertising outside the major television markets. These were the statistics:

30% of the population lives in the Top Ten television markets yet only 14% of the House seats that switched from Dem to GOP were in the Top Ten.

Obviously there were factors back then that were extraneous to TV advertising -- demography, for example, may make it easier to gerrymander safe seats in large metropolitan areas than in minor markets -- yet it is worth considering that the enormous impact that the NRA's TV ad buy had in that election was helped by the efficiency of the buy in minor markets, where gun rights have more salience as a swing issue.

At the time we did some reporting on the possibility of bringing Top Ten House seats into play by bypassing broadcast advertising and using targeted cable buys. At that time, political operatives told us that broadcasters were much more flexible in accepting last minute changes than cable companies, who wanted a spot finalized two weeks in advance. Rapid reaction ads, therefore, were not feasible on cable TV back in 1994. That may or may not have changed since then.

Regards

Andrew Tyndall
Tyndall Report

the best map of media markets i've seen - very int...

2008-07-07T13:03:00.000-04:00

the best map of media markets i've seen - very interactive - is here.

As a New York City dweller, I know the New Jersey ...

2008-07-07T11:46:00.000-04:00

As a New York City dweller, I know the New Jersey effect all too well. CT has to be another horrible state to deal with, between having to buy in NYC and probably to a lesser extent in Mass. Not sure how many stations are Hartford or New Haven based.

As a Delawarean (from Sussex County) I am fairly c...

2008-07-07T09:09:00.000-04:00

As a Delawarean (from Sussex County) I am fairly confident that DE will go for Obama. Sussex County is extremely rural and somewhat evangelical, but the coastal communities there have had a recent population boom of retirees from the wealthy Democratic D.C. suburbs. Sussex went for Hillary in the primaries. I wasn't surprised - its isolation makes it a lot like Appalachia.

Kent boasts Dover AFB and a "big" military vote, but the county's population is miniscule compared to the state total.

New Castle County DE has 5/8 of the state's population, including the city of Wilmington which is basically Philadelphia's little brother. It typically goes Democratic (although Reagan and Bush I both won the state), which is why Delaware's elected officials all have a (D) after their name.

Your state similarity model should fix any perception that Delaware is a swing state -- consider it an easy three-pointer for Obama, please.

Ad-supported cable makes up about 50% of total TV ...

2008-07-06T23:50:00.000-04:00

Ad-supported cable makes up about 50% of total TV viewing, and got 46% of all prime-time viewers in 2006. Broadcast got only 44% that year.

So I repeat, if you buy only broadcast TV, you will miss half or more of all TV viewers.

"counsellorben said... The problem with cable buys is [you] will reach much smaller audiences." But the exact opposite is true.

Repubs have actually been far ahead of us in using cable TV. Why am I not surprised.

NATE:Have you seen this: http://www.zogby.com/news...

2008-07-06T23:05:00.000-04:00

NATE:

Have you seen this: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1523 ... You will find it interesting

Nate,I'd like to alert you to the existence of a t...

2008-07-06T22:45:00.000-04:00

Nate,

I'd like to alert you to the existence of a theory of optimal campaign expenditure by poltical scientist Steven Brams in his book the Presidential Election Game. He says that, all other factors being equal, the cost of campaigning is proportional to the 3/2 power of the Electoral vote a state possesses. For example say Obama seeks two states, one with 4 electoral votes and the other with 16 electoral votes. Brams says that Obama should spend not 4 times as much in the larger state, but

(16/4)^(3/2) = 8 times more.

Alaska runs right up against the Soviet Union. HA....

2008-07-06T20:14:00.000-04:00

Alaska runs right up against the Soviet Union. HA. Best post of da year!

Oh and I'd love to see McCain try to expand the ma...

2008-07-06T16:05:00.000-04:00

Oh and I'd love to see McCain try to expand the map into NJ and CA. That would be unbelieveably stupid.

Its funny. I read a post on RCP by McCain's ex-de...

2008-07-06T16:03:00.000-04:00

Its funny. I read a post on RCP by McCain's ex-deputy campaign manager attacking Obama for foolishly wasting money targeting Bush states he couldn't win...and then used Texas as an example. Are these people even looking at the facts? I think this post really shows why the expand the map strategy is a good one. Yes, he will probably lose AK, MT and ND. But he's got a shot if McCain doesn't match, it sends a really good signal to the whole country and it doesn't cost nearly as much as people think.

Maybe, McCain's staff will get really confused and think they need to spend money defending Texas. Better run to Houston John.

Hey Nate!Thanks for this! I've always been curiou...

2008-07-06T13:53:00.000-04:00

Hey Nate!

Thanks for this! I've always been curious where I could find this info.

The funny thing about a "50 state strategy" is that the efficiency number would be "10"--if you follow my logic.

Practically speakig: It seems obvious, but worth noting, the cost/geography favors Obama to cast his seeds broadly, while McCain can't. You mention NJ, but shortlived talk about a McCain play in CA is silly. So many markets, and such a high cost. The "18 states + Omaha" plan makes a lot of sense based on this info. (Why not ads on 3 stations in Alaska or 2 in ND!?!?!?) I can only think of TX as a state where Obama might have wanted to advertise, but looked at the cost and number of markets and said "no thanks."

I'm glad you are considering media markets, as I w...

2008-07-06T12:45:00.000-04:00

I'm glad you are considering media markets, as I was the one who initially castigated Sean for not considering media markets in his VP discussion.

But are you considering geography or population in the 'bleeding' over state lines? Some of the ones you mention bleed to other states in terms of geography, but not still reach 80-90% of the targeted population. You should also consider the cost of the market for efficiency too. Toledo may be more efficient than Pittsburgh from a cost/overlap combination perspective.

Anon at 10:08 yesterday makes an excellent point, ...

2008-07-06T12:18:00.000-04:00

Anon at 10:08 yesterday makes an excellent point, particularly as it applies to NJ. You can buy cable markets here that are probably bigger than broadcast markets in other states, and I bet the prices are quite favorable.
25 years ago NJ advertising had to be sick expensive, but if you're willing to do a little work, I'm sure it's not prohibitively expensive now.
Ed sanders

Just a small comment about NW Indiana and Chicago....

2008-07-06T11:07:00.000-04:00

Just a small comment about NW Indiana and Chicago. The day before the Indiana Democratic primary, Obama did run a rather long ad targeted specifically to Indiana on WLS (the local ABC channel in Chicago).

Although it is true that eastern Nevada is thinly ...

2008-07-06T10:13:00.000-04:00

Although it is true that eastern Nevada is thinly populated, we have to keep in mind that Nevada elections have been close.
Kerry lost Nevada by two points. In 1998, Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by 401 votes.
Therefore, it is essential to go into Elko and Humboldt counties to pursue the votes of ranchers, farmers, truckers, and miners. If we can narrow the margins and continue to carry Las Vegas, we will carry the state. Barack Obama's primary strategy demonstrated that his team understands that.
Of course, there might be other ways to reach eastern Nevada voters than TV. I don't think that mailers would work with those voters. AM radio would be great. And there is cable, of course.
Although the Obama campaign has to carefully avoid a backlash against Jim Matheson, the lone Utah Democrat in Congress, I would run ads in the Salt Lake market. Three electoral votes in Nevada are worth it.

above Anonymous here:I meant to use the Tipping Po...

2008-07-06T07:00:00.000-04:00

above Anonymous here:

I meant to use the Tipping Point percentage instead of the electoral votes, so I guess use E = Tipping Point percentage in my ROI estimates.

Well, it seems you now have the data you need to d...

2008-07-06T06:57:00.000-04:00

Well, it seems you now have the data you need to do a real ROI estimate:

Let C be the minimal cost of making at least one advertising impression on each person in the state (or each television owner). You can calculate this by adding together the minimal cost of 100% reach in each market (so for an ad that reaches 10% of a market at $10,000 you would need $100,000) that covers a state, with possible adjustments to geographic coverage as is reflected in reality.

Let A be the average minimal cost of making at least one advertising impression on one person in the US (this is like C for the whole country divided by the population of the country).

Let R be the typical proportion of the campaign done through television advertising when a presidential campaign focuses on a state.

Let P be the population of the state.

Let E be the electoral votes in the state.

Then ROI could be pretty well estimated by E/(A*P+R*(C-A*P)) where R*(C-A*P) is effectively the correction term to your current method (you assume cost per person is uniformly A, but for ads to have the same effect in a state that costs C/P more than A per person, you will need to spend (C/P-A) more per person over the entire population, but this only affects R of your campaign, so R*P*(C/P-A)) or R*(C-A*P). Equivalently, you could look at it as E/(P+R*(C/A-P)) where C/A measures the equivalent average number of americans you have to advertise to in a given state by cost, so C/A-P are the effectively "lost" people that you are paying to advertize to whether they are outside your target or don't even exist, but they only affect the proportion R of your campaign because mailers, phone calls, etc. aren't affected by tv ad rates.)

Dear Anon at 8:14,I'll acknowledge the existence o...

2008-07-06T06:21:00.000-04:00

Dear Anon at 8:14,

I'll acknowledge the existence of Delaware, if forced by the article, but I'm ready to lay down the line on Canada. Enough is enough.

If we use this data to look exclusively at the Presidential election, "inefficient" media markets are only truly inefficient for your candidate if (a) you're either tied or battling from behind and trying to flip a state; and (b) the media markets bleed into neighboring states that can't be flipped. From that we can take Indiana, because Obama wouldn't need to advertise in the Chicago-land metro, and MI, and Ohio are also in play.

Problem states look like as follows for both parties:
PA (Surrounded by states, with the exception of OH, which won't be flipped.)

For Republicans:
NH (would require advertising in Boston and Portland)
NJ (would require advertising in NY)

For Democrats:
VA (would require advertising in DC, Appalachia and NC)

I think (it's been a while) that some of the Flori...

2008-07-06T02:11:00.000-04:00

I think (it's been a while) that some of the Florida panhandle also gets at least some of its coverage from the Dothan, AL market. Alabama is one of the least in-play states by your rankings, but Dothan TV should be cheap.