Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: More Bailout Thoughts

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2009-03-12T03:08:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T03:08:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-09T21:54:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-18T07:42:00.000-05:00

If the bailout bill doesn't get passed eventually,...

2008-09-30T07:46:00.000-04:00

If the bailout bill doesn't get passed eventually, what scares me is the loss in investor confidence. What happens if people start bailing out of mutual funds, thus forcing the funds to sell their shares, thus forcing the market downward, etc.... Maybe a 4000 drop isn't too far off the mark.

Once people start to worry about their money that would be a big deal, According to the Gallup poll people don't seem too concerned about their money yet...

Nate asked:what would a complete failure to pass t...

2008-09-30T02:48:00.000-04:00

Nate asked:
what would a complete failure to pass the bailout translate into? A 4000 point loss?

According to Jim Cramer, worst case is the Dow goes below 8400. That's about 3000 below where it was at the start of Monday.

I currently agree with the people saying this was ...

2008-09-30T02:07:00.000-04:00

I currently agree with the people saying this was a huge win for democracy. The grass-roots effort of tons of people to kill this monstrous bill was amazing to be a part of. Do some basic research online and you will find many reasons why this bill was flawed. I'm not opposed to something being done, but doing nothing is better than this bill.

Check out this blog as he was one of the guys supporting a fax / call campaign to get it killed:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

I'm a lifelong democrat but I loved the republicans today...

Thanks to Viktor and FreeThinker for their trencha...

2008-09-29T23:05:00.000-04:00

Thanks to Viktor and FreeThinker for their trenchant contributions to the discussion.

RE: Retiring Congresspersons as the "most neutral arbiters of the public good." -- I really must disagree.

Although I can see the appeal of treating this as a pure game theory question, but that "purity" is whitewashing. The assumption that each Representative is making an independent ethical decision is faulty.

If you look at the whole system, where the party leadership is bartering and bargaining with blocks of votes, it is clear that collectively it is in each party's interest to commit the retiring Reps -- who fear no reprisal either way, from taxpayers or alleged corporate overlords -- to vote YAY for a measure that is so intensely unpopular (rightly or wrongly) with the electorate.

In short, the retirees are FIRST in line to vote YES because they're leaving no matter what. This means that fewer of the party's rank-and-file (who might be up for reelection) have to support the unpopular measure in order to get it passed. All of this is assuming that the party leadership on both sides agree that passing the measure is the right thing to do despite voters' antipathy.

For my part, I think the failure is not in the vote, but in how badly thought-out the bailout is as it currently stands. Even with the bipartisan ammendments, it really is still just handing over 700,000,000,000 dollars to one man, with toothless oversight by a panel of the "experts" 3/5ths of whom at least helped create the crisis in the first place.

It is a MAJOR problem that they have not had any hearings from independent economists, not just on the specifics of the Bush plan, but on hearing alternatives. Big problem. Everyone involved in the plan now has a big stake in the outcome (financial and political), and few of them are expert economists.

People seem to be completely unaware of how the ex...

2008-09-29T21:57:00.000-04:00

People seem to be completely unaware of how the externalities of this will affect them. The plan isn't need just to save some fat-cats or investment houses. The entire banking system is teetering on the edge of failure. You have a seized up engine and the injection of funds from the government would be the oil to get it moving again. If this doesn't go through, you aren't talking about some bankruptcies, you are talking about the complete failure of our economy. I'm sure the comfort that you didn't "bail out Wall Street" will keep you warm at night when you lose your job because the business you work for couldn't get an intra-day credit loan because the money market mutual funds have frozen.

I disagree with the assessment that only people wo...

2008-09-29T20:43:00.000-04:00

I disagree with the assessment that only people worried about their seats voted against the bill. Nearly the entire Georgia delegation voted against it, both Republicans and Democrats, and many of them are not worried about their seats at all. Hank Johnson is running unopposed, and John Lewis could vote yes on a bill to give the Medal of Honor to Satan, and his constituents would vote him back in office. Whatever their reasons, it wasn't fear.

I personally am glad they balked. They were being rushed, and that didn't work so well the last time there was a horrible emergency declared by the Bush Administration and Congress got stampeded. I think the costs of taking a few days to sit down and come up with something better will be less in the long run than running off half-cocked based on guarantees from Bush that it's the best thing to do...again.

We give this inch to "save us" we give another inc...

2008-09-29T20:34:00.000-04:00

We give this inch to "save us" we give another inch to "SAVE US" Another inch "protects us" another inch later "insures us". The next inch "punishes". The next inch "repeals" . The next "un-encumbers".

No more inches. not one.

"An inch. It's small and it's fragile and it's the only thing in the world worth having. We must never lose it, or sell it, or give it away. We must never let them take it from us."
-Valerie . V for Vendetta.

I, for one, am a BIG liberal, totally against taxp...

2008-09-29T20:25:00.000-04:00

I, for one, am a BIG liberal, totally against taxpayers rescuing investment firms. Maybe we'll hurt... But maybe we need to feel it.

First time here.Anyone here ever crack open an ec...

2008-09-29T20:23:00.000-04:00

First time here.
Anyone here ever crack open an economics book? Or hell a philosophy book?

any book?

Some people lose everyone wins.
I suppose you would support sacrificing virgins if it kept john deer in business though. I don't see the moral difference.

Though I suppose connecting a to b is enough for most people. I like to connect all the way through to Z and after C The long term effects of this bill ain't pretty.

And yes they actually can be predicted to a degree.

First time here.Anyone here ever crack open an ec...

2008-09-29T20:20:00.000-04:00

And I think many of the readers are missing the po...

2008-09-29T20:13:00.000-04:00

And I think many of the readers are missing the point- what good is cheap credit if my household bills (housing costs, food, gas) go thrugh the roof because of the inflation and malinvestment caused by the government?

Great, I have credit moving through the market- I'll need a new credit card to pay for my $5/gallon gas.

Look at oil today- tanking- bravo to deflation. Hooray for rational behavior and responsibility.

Now I can afford a house next year instead of having to take out a 50 year mortgage to pay $550,000k for some piece of crap bungalow.

Kill the debtor society- kill the debtor society.....

The bailout failure is great news for all American...

2008-09-29T20:09:00.000-04:00

The bailout failure is great news for all Americans. This belief that banks will stop lending to one another is absurd. The reason they are doing so to some extent and assets aren't being liquidated as they should is the uncertainty of the government's actions. Why, if I am a company, should I sell my assets at 20 cents on the dollar (what the market will bear) when I have some morons (Bush, Bernake, Pelosi, Frank and Paulson) willing to spend tax payer dollars to buy them at 50 or 80 cents on the dollar? If I am in charge of the company I wait for the bailout, then piss and moan because I'm not getting a few dozen billion dollars.

The Dow is not an indicator of whether this is a good or bad bailout- if someone promised me $700 billion and then withdrew the offer, I might change my behavior too.

This entire mess needs to be liquidated- let them fail- let the bad debts get disposed of in bankruptcy, let the good assets get bought up by health companies.

This is not a depression, this is a correction. Bravo to hose like Rep. Paul who voted against this bill.

I just want to say, I watch the vote. The first th...

2008-09-29T20:02:00.000-04:00

I just want to say, I watch the vote. The first thing they did was do a yea/nay shout out. Literally. It was obvious listening the yeas had it and in fact the woman with the gavel SAID the yeas had it.

But before she pounded the gavel, someone demanded they record the vote. We all know how that worked.

Some people need to grow a pair.

Might a slight drying up of credit actually be a g...

2008-09-29T20:01:00.000-04:00

Might a slight drying up of credit actually be a good thing? I know I often regret how much student loan I took out; perhaps tuitions (like housing prices) would go down if colleges had a harder time finding students that could afford to attend.

Student loans and business loans are one thing, but car loans? The surfeit of credit in this country just encourages people to spend money on things they don't really need — or even want badly enough to save up for.

Obviously we need some amount of credit liquidity to keep small businesses going, etc., but I don't see a reduction of available credit as a universally terrible thing.

The Atalntic South (NC, VA) is moving slowly to Ob...

2008-09-29T19:43:00.000-04:00

The Atalntic South (NC, VA) is moving slowly to Obama.

Matt,You make take joy in this not passing as only...

2008-09-29T19:42:00.000-04:00

Matt,

You make take joy in this not passing as only helping Wallstreet. But, the credit markets are freezing up. People that need a car loan, student loan, home loan have been having increasing difficulty getting them even with good credit. 1/3rd of student loans companies have pulled out of the market for students in the last 6 months and those providng them are jacking up interest rates though prime hasn't changed since april and adding fees. Banks are reducing small business lines of credit or not providing new accounts. This will start hitting more of main street soon.

Thank you for the comment on the schadenfreude, Na...

2008-09-29T19:40:00.000-04:00

Thank you for the comment on the schadenfreude, Nate. I’ve been wanting to yell “get off my side” whenever I see that sort of thing. This crisis is already hurting a lot of perfectly responsible main street people. For example, my roommate's pastor has just found out that their church’s $600,000 in CDs are not FDIC insured. At all. Not even the first $100,000. If that financial group goes down, which looks more likely by the day, they'll be wiped out.

PeteKent's ramblings are hilarious. He can't possi...

2008-09-29T19:38:00.000-04:00

PeteKent's ramblings are hilarious. He can't possibly believe that BS, can he? It's like reading NoQuarterUSA.NET, it's hard to believe anyone is THAT crazy.

An Obama Minute: DONATE TO OBAMA on 10/6/08.

InkStain, could you point me toward some of these ...

2008-09-29T19:32:00.001-04:00

InkStain, could you point me toward some of these independent economists? The ones I've seen are largely against the bail-out, saying that it would do much more harm than good.

From my current perspective, the Republicans look like heroes. They thwarted (however temporarily) the financial equivalent of the 2002 AUMF.

and also...playing this politically either way...r...

2008-09-29T19:32:00.000-04:00

and also...playing this politically either way...rep or dem is disgusting. if mccain did one thing for the american people, and no i'm not voting for him, he scuttled this piece of shit.

this is a joke of a post, nate. the joy of libera...

2008-09-29T19:31:00.000-04:00

this is a joke of a post, nate. the joy of liberals at this bailout tanking is well deserved. the bailout is a worthless. acting like we NEED to pass this to pay off people that don't deserve...which is what it does. don't act like it doesnt. is the purest joke of all. don't talk about democracy failing when something for rich people doesn't pass. this doesn't really help "us" or "we" or specifically "me". the golden parachute addition was a farce, the equity thing in it was a farce as well. i understand that something needs to happen but it completely let them and the broken system they made walk. BUT WE NEED IT? no we don't need to pay for these scumbags vacations. they're all fine without the 700 billion, nate..it's us that are screwed and there was nothing punitive towards them in the bill. i dont know how many times i need to reiterate that in one post til it sinks in