Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: On the Road: Battleground States of America

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2009-03-12T01:51:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T01:51:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-09T05:54:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-19T10:03:00.000-05:00

Excellent post. I live in Vienna, Austria. Next we...

2008-09-13T07:12:00.000-04:00

Excellent post.

I live in Vienna, Austria. Next week I'm heading to my hometown in Northern California to join Obama volunteers travelling to Nevada. That's about 6,000 miles I'm going, or thereabouts. Hope to run in to some of you out there.

I will pass on any observations relevant to your project. I, too, am wondering what effect these supporters will have on the Nevada margin, and look forward to getting a feel for the facts on the ground.

Great post!!!

2008-09-12T23:35:00.000-04:00

Great post!!!

@ MichaelIndiana does not charge for non-driver ID...

2008-09-12T15:35:00.000-04:00

@ Michael

Indiana does not charge for non-driver ID's, which is why the Supreme Court upheld the law.

What they don't tell you is that they require a birth certificate to get the ID, something many people simply cannot afford to do.

I was actually interested in Obama when he first c...

2008-09-12T15:13:00.000-04:00

I was actually interested in Obama when he first came out. WHY -- He is going to be post-racial. He is going to be post partisan. He is going to reach out to moderates, independents, republicans. He is going to reach across the aisle. He agreed to take federal campaign funding if his republican opponent agreed the same. He will run a clean campaign and be a different kind of politician.
I thought it meant that when he attacks lobbyists, in addition to big business, oil, and financial institutions, he would also attack the unions and the lawyers.
I thought it meant that he would change his policies and go to the middle ground on hot button issues like energy, abortion, taxes, supreme court justices, healthcare, etc. How can Obama attract Republicans if he does not get off his most liberal positions. On Supreme court judges, he could commit in no uncertain terms not to nominate anyone who could not get the votes of 25% of Republican Senators.
I thought that he would speak to power against late night comedians like Jimmy Kimmel and Bill Maher, hollywood elites, DailyKos. What would it cost him to condemn the nasty fringes of his own party?

There is a lot more I would want from a truly great candidate. Truly, I would like far more from John McCain on these line BUT McCain did not promise to be post partisan. Obama did.

@Mason,I accept the base fact -- So did the author...

2008-09-12T14:57:00.000-04:00

@Mason,
I accept the base fact -- So did the author of the link I provided, which is link from RCP. There is a McCain side and an Obama side , I read both.

Mason,I;d be overwhelmed with relief if it were so...

2008-09-12T14:54:00.000-04:00

Mason,

I;d be overwhelmed with relief if it were so, but I suspect the Republican Convention didn't do that much for the base, Palin did. It's a Palin surge, not so discernible in the intial VP choice polls as she was an unknown then and pollsters got a tepid response from people who did not know her then.

Elsewhere, it's really helpful to hear from the Republicans who are leaning Democrat this election, like Floridagop.

And it *is* a bitter life-or-death struggle...too bad that more people aren't seeing it that way. I'm not crazy about Obama, I loathe some of his supporters, but I'll do my part to end this past 8 years of continuous nightmare.

FlagopI will try to end here. This topic is like k...

2008-09-12T14:42:00.000-04:00

Flagop
I will try to end here. This topic is like kryptonite for Obama -- do not touch it -- ignore it. Moderates, Independents, and Republican are incensed about school boards and legislators who know better what to teach their kids.

You can't magnimoniusly choose to end the debate when you aren't even listening in the first place. The IL legislature gave parents the choice to say, "I know better than you do." If you don't accept that base fact, than there's really nothing more to say. :-/

Dems don't indulge in juvenile taunting and triump...

2008-09-12T14:41:00.000-04:00

Dems don't indulge in juvenile taunting and triumphalism as much as Reps do.

Of course, that could be because they lose so often and are grimly focused on winning this time.

I get the impression (if one can make such a huge generalization) that righties view this election as a chess match or a sporting contest. Lefties look on it as a bitter life-or-death struggle.

However, pouring government money into renewables ...

2008-09-12T14:38:00.001-04:00

However, pouring government money into renewables might take the space of the private sector. Indeed, with oil prices above 100 and likely to stay up above 80, the MARKET is responding with renewables companies booming. Dumping a ton of government money won't necessarily spur any faster development and might alter the trajectory of the market negatively.

Geoff, I have to disagree with this. There is no way that research grants, consumer tax breaks, or corporate tax breaks for renewable energy will crowd out the market. Most reseach grants in the sciences already come from the government and the second and the third items will only expand the number of players in the market. You are correct that the market is responding, but money, even government money, is a fine catalyst for any market's growth.

@Mason, >>>>>That's why the ad was so egregious. T...

2008-09-12T14:38:00.000-04:00

@Mason,
>>>>>That's why the ad was so egregious. There was parental choice in the matter. The state of IL said, "We're going to do this, but if you don't want your kid to be a part, that's cool."
I mean... it's like a set of parents getting bent out of shape because all the other kids are going on a field trip, and they refused to sign the permission slip for their kid.<<<<<

I will try to end here. This topic is like kryptonite for Obama -- do not touch it -- ignore it. Moderates, Independents, and Republican are incensed about school boards and legislators who know better what to teach their kids.

I started this thread when Scott indicated that he could not see how any McCain supporter could support this Ad. That is my job on this blog!!!! I have learned much about the sensitivity about community organizer or the gaffe of Bush Doctrine because my life experience is not progressive. Whenever an Obama supporter want to know how a topic is viewed in the moderate republican world, I and others can contribute.

Having said that, I do not particularly like Sarah Palin, She is too socially conservative for my taste. That does not mean that I do not understand what attracts voters to her.

I didn't mean stupid as in it cost him a ton of vo...

2008-09-12T14:37:00.000-04:00

I didn't mean stupid as in it cost him a ton of votes, I just think it's tacky and nothing good could have come from it.

I'm all for drilling but we all know it's a drop i...

2008-09-12T14:36:00.000-04:00

I'm all for drilling but we all know it's a drop in the bucket at this point.

I think there will be a a period of 5-10 years where we are going to be hurting over energy prices. Sucks to be us but we just didn't have the forethought to do anything about it earlier. (Sigh, sometimes I dream of the utopia Gore would have brought us).

Switching all our semis and public transportation to CNG could help in a big way, I just wonder if Congress can have the balls to make that into law.

China will just normalize aggressive euthanasia ta...

2008-09-12T14:32:00.000-04:00

China will just normalize aggressive euthanasia tactics and save trillions. What will the US do?

Wasn't the shoe on the other foot right up till th...

2008-09-12T14:31:00.000-04:00

Wasn't the shoe on the other foot right up till the realization that McCain's gains cannot be explained away as a Convention bounce?

You can't make that call until the week between the 15th and the 21st. Once we get to that point, we'll begin to know where we are. Until then, we MAY still be in convention-bounce-land.

That presidential seal was a disasterously stupid ...

2008-09-12T14:29:00.001-04:00

That presidential seal was a disasterously stupid idea.

Nah... It's didn't move numbers much, if at all, and it was in the middle of the summer.

OTOH- I can now mute JSM's Tiergarten ad within two seconds of it coming on.

"This race is not over. Everyone I know thinks it ...

2008-09-12T14:29:00.000-04:00

"This race is not over. Everyone I know thinks it is, but I don't buy it. Mr. Obama just suffered a catastrophe, his first. Mr. McCain just enjoyed a triumph, maybe not his last. GOP strategists are experiencing premature triumphalism; they're puffing up like blowfish, emitting great bubbles of self-regard. Democrats, be encouraged by this! They make mistakes when they're winning. They always start to think they're the reason."

Wasn't the shoe on the other foot right up till the realization that McCain's gains cannot be explained away as a Convention bounce?

Does anyone know of a good book on the future of t...

2008-09-12T14:28:00.002-04:00

Does anyone know of a good book on the future of the US health care system?

Geoff,1) Pre convention Obama lead in CO in 13 of ...

2008-09-12T14:28:00.001-04:00

Geoff,

1) Pre convention Obama lead in CO in 13 of 17 polls.

2)PA has 1,1110,000 Dem voter registration advantage up from 580,000 in 2004. Those new registered voters aren't in the LV polls. If even 25% show up McCain loses the state by more than Bush. Even without them Obama would win the state

MI was Obama +4 (Rasmussen since that's the Repubs favorite and has a house effect for them) and is +5 Ras afterwards. Zero movement towards McCain.

I agree with that Chun, from a centrist point of v...

2008-09-12T14:28:00.000-04:00

I agree with that Chun, from a centrist point of view it is disasterous that we aren't doing something now that both parties presently support.

Here's the rub: The Dems are loading their bill with poison pills that will stall drilling for years and years to placate the environmentalists. Conversely, McCain can't get anyone else in the GOP hardly to support anything more than tax breaks for renewables, and even that is tough going.

However, pouring government money into renewables might take the space of the private sector. Indeed, with oil prices above 100 and likely to stay up above 80, the MARKET is responding with renewables companies booming. Dumping a ton of government money won't necessarily spur any faster development and might alter the trajectory of the market negatively.

Further, taxing "windfall profits" at a 100% rate (Obama's plan) of oil companies (who also are the major suppliers of natural gas) would surely retard the production market strongly, offsetting any even negligible benefit from the limited Dem drilling plan.

So where are you then? Dumping money into renewables while oil keeps going up with no end in sight. Unless oil is stabilized for 10-15 years, the economy will eventually collapse under high energy prices when those prices truly filter into the economy with significantly higher inflation.

That presidential seal was a disasterously stupid ...

2008-09-12T14:24:00.001-04:00

That presidential seal was a disasterously stupid idea. WTF.

You know what's odd? both candidates have nearly i...

2008-09-12T14:24:00.000-04:00

You know what's odd? both candidates have nearly identical energy policies. One emphasizes drilling and talks vaguely about renewable energy and the other emphasizes renewable energy over drilling, but in the end the goal and the method of energy independence is the same.

The only reason this is an issue is because Dems want to make oil industries look like the devil (not that I am saying they aren't) and the Repubs want to make the Dems look like cowards about drilling (at this point I think environmentalists should take a back seat for a few more years).

Isn't it sad that we all have a plan that we can agree with but no one wants to celebrate that fact?

Personally, I feel that Obama will better educate and motivate Americans about driving plug-in hybrids and uniting together to be free of foreign oil but I'm sure someone out there will tell me why I am mistaken.