Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: The Virtue of Vetting

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2009-10-08T08:02:51.062-04:00

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2009-09-11T01:54:16.553-04:00

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2009-03-11T06:09:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-14T01:48:00.000-05:00

For electoral college purposes GHWB was from Texas...

2008-07-09T21:22:00.000-04:00

For electoral college purposes GHWB was from Texas.

JDK: "Except for the pick of Agnew (which should h...

2008-07-09T17:37:00.000-04:00

JDK: "Except for the pick of Agnew (which should have told us something!) has a President ever been elected (post 12th Amendment or in last hundred years) who didn't win both his own state as well as the state of the VP?"

I guess that all depends on which of the many states Daddy Bush (41) claimed as home: Texas, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts.

I'd like to suggest a simple proposition: a vice-p...

2008-07-09T17:12:00.000-04:00

I'd like to suggest a simple proposition: a vice-presidential pick isn't going to GAIN you votes. Nobody is going to vote for Obama because the running mate is from state X, charismatic, etc.

All the VP can do is LOSE you votes.

So both candidates should be picking the most boring, noncontroversial VP possible.
Period.

No drama queens. No polarizing figures like Hillary. No one even more inexperienced than Obama. (Bye-bye McCaskill...) No gaffe machines like Richardson and Biden.

Dick Gephardt perhaps?

Except for the pick of Agnew (which should have to...

2008-07-09T16:32:00.000-04:00

Except for the pick of Agnew (which should have told us something!) has a President ever been elected (post 12th Amendment or in last hundred years) who didn't win both his own state as well as the state of the VP?

Should that rule out some really bad idea "Southern" choices.

Jerry Brown for Veep. catholic, governor, mayor, AG, worked with Mother Theresa, called Democratic Party on corrupting influence of big money by resigned from chair of CA DEM Party, saw the environment as an important issue twenty years in advance, an attack dog to blast McCain, a great name for OH.

Regina @ 7:18 "Obama needs to pick Clinton. Or he ...

2008-07-08T19:16:00.000-04:00

Regina @ 7:18 "Obama needs to pick Clinton. Or he needs to pick someone where the answer to that question, 'Why wasn't it Clinton?' is non-controversial to both Clinton supporters and the media."

From the end of the Primary to now hasn't been very long, but if I was Sen. Obama and had decided to pick Sen. Clinton for VP, I would wait for some time before announcing it, that's for sure. Time to let the crowds on each side to settle down a bit.

Not saying this is happening, though it fits my "wait a month or two before announcing" theory. And hey, if he'd had someone in mind already (don't know why anyone wouldn't believe that to be true), why wouldn't he have announced right away?

Side note to Higglytown:

"each of the very brief parts of his political existence have had drastically different records and sets of beliefs upon which he campaigns."

You may want to recheck your postings, every word about the constant flip-flopping is right on the mark to be sure, but you've mistakenly written "Obama" instead of "McCain".

Don't worry though, from the descriptions, we know who you meant. ;-)

Is Chris Dodd out of the running? He seems like t...

2008-07-08T16:18:00.000-04:00

Is Chris Dodd out of the running? He seems like the best choice to me for broadening Obama's appeal, and he endorsed early after dropping his own bid for the WH.

Pete Kent:Thanks for your opinion, which is expres...

2008-07-08T14:47:00.000-04:00

Pete Kent:

Thanks for your opinion, which is expressed clearly. What I was addressing, though, was the current lack of data to support it -- or at least data available to me.

I am hoping that someone will be able to point us in the right direction and we will find out something relevant. For example, what demographics went strongly for and against Richardson when he was elected governor of New Mexico.

Without evidence, all the opinionating on earth isn't going to accomplish anything.

Higglytown:Obama isn't wrong for America. He's wro...

2008-07-08T13:59:00.000-04:00

Higglytown:

Obama isn't wrong for America. He's wrong for YOU and your Neanderthal ways.

I'm sick of right-wing Republicans thinking that their "values" represent those of America.

You're no more American than the rest of us. Or Obama.

One of the issues Obama has is that We know what h...

2008-07-08T13:28:00.000-04:00

One of the issues Obama has is that

We know what he claimed to believe while in the Illinois state house;

We know what he claimed to believe in his Year and half or so as a Senator;

We know what he claimed to believe back in February through early June when running for the Democratic nomination;

We know what he claims to believe today;

But we have no idea what he actually believes, or what he will believe come November 2008 or January 2009.

That is the scary part, each of the very brief parts of his political existence have had drastically different records and sets of beliefs upon which he campaigns.

Sibelius's biggest negatives are the fact that som...

2008-07-08T13:27:00.000-04:00

Sibelius's biggest negatives are the fact that some die-hard Clinton supporters may view her selection as a slap in the face because she's a woman (which in my opinion is an extension of the rigid gender ideology that drove me nuts during the primary) and that she needs a couple days of coaching on appearing less robotic reading off a teleprompter (see: SOTU) - but she does at least as well as Clinton or Edwards in front of crowds.

Her personal positives are that she has an excellent managerial track record (I would trust her to hammer out a path out of our current budget debacle after her success in Kansas), sky-high favorables among constituents of all parties, emphasizes Obama's change/outsider/post-partisan message as he is trying to move to the center, has proven herself to be a tireless campaigner, and is charismatic and reassuring in person. On a more shallow note, I think the white hair is a nice counterbalance to Obama's youthful appearance without her appearing frumpy like Biden or Napolitano, and she might help a bit with MO and OH due to her ties. Obama seems to praise her effusively every time he gets the chance.

One more point, and it's the same logic I used to settle on Obama almost eighteen months ago. I think you put the most talented, telegenic, and (subtly) tough person in the slot and let them grow into the job and I believe that person to be Sibelius.

Plus her family goes to Jazzfest every year. How cool is that?

I think the big advantage for Bayh is his 'checkma...

2008-07-08T13:00:00.000-04:00

I think the big advantage for Bayh is his 'checkmarks'. Governor? Check. Helps 'bring home a red state'? Check.

I don't think he really helps the ticket, but he has absolutely nothing that hurts the ticket. I can't imagine anybody, anywhere, voting against Obama because he picked Bayh as his veep (unless they were always going to vote against Obama unless he picked their personal favorite for veep, such as Hillary). If Obama thinks he has it in the bag unless he does something stupid, then Bayh is obvious. He just screams "safe choice".

A guy like Richardson is a risky choice. He could be enormously helpful- having a guy who's been a cabinet member, senator, and governor, who's negotiated POW releases, has the most foreign policy experience of anybody short of Condeleeza Rice, and Hispanic. He could also be enormously harmful- womanizer, sometimes puts his foot in his mouth (though not as bad as Biden), and Hispanic, though his English name, face, and accent means that lots of people wouldn't even know it.

So my vote is:

Risky (need Veep to win it): Richardson.
Center (want small boost): Sebelius
Safe (just don't hurt the ticket): Bayh

So in many ways, I don't consider the veep pick just a pick of the next possible Vice President, but also how confident Obama is of winning the campaign.

As a social conservative right leaning independant...

2008-07-08T12:50:00.000-04:00

As a social conservative right leaning independant, I would consider voting for Evan Bayh, too bad Obama would still be on top of the ticket. I like him and find him genuine. His stance on abortion is rational, although pro-choice leaning. He has shown he understands economics of government and can balance a budget. I still would never vote for Obama, but there are probably a lot of people in the middle of Indiana with similar views to mine, that would if Bayh was on the ticket.

Would never consider Clinton or Richardson, I agree there is too much baggage. Bob Graham has its upside and downside. His age would both clearly show Obama is not "attacking" McCain on age, but having many years of the wrong type of experience. However, it also diminishes the impact of BO's age and desire to change, when you bring someone on just as old and with as much inside experience as JM.

Overall very interesting discussions. Obama is wrong for America, which makes finding a similar person to join him all the harder to do. If holding Obama's extreme views and lack of experience is required I cannot think of a single person who would fit the bill. Every person you have mentioned has lots more experience than good ole BO, with the exception maybe of a couple unknown governors.

i love what sg said: "I don't think there's anyone...

2008-07-08T12:39:00.000-04:00

i love what sg said: "I don't think there's anyone in the Democratic Party who seriously believes that Bayh would use a VP slot to push a pro-life agenda. And if anyone in the party DOES believe such a thing, then they're so stupid that they really ought to be Republicans."

well done. i think something we don't think about much is how this ticket will look. the ideal to me was clinton/gore - they looked dynamic, young, good looking and ready to take on the world. the generational change from bush 1 and bob dole was unmistakable and a plus. bush/cheney looked more like a punk with his grumpy uncle.

the list of venerable foreign policy men - clark, nunn, biden, graham may have a little of that odd couple look as well. i don't think its a big deal but it is something. i think biden is in the top 5 and he should be.

i've come around to thinking that bayh is the guy. indiana is one of two tossup states right now (VA is the other) and obama is expending energy/$ there. his combo of exec and foreign policy experience is superb. he has tremendeous campaign experience. he is beloved by his state. and let's be honest: they would look like a perfect team - especially compared to mccain and whoever he chooses.

i don't discount clinton or sebelius, but their experience doesn't seem quite the perfect fit. clinton as vp might be the best surrogate a campaign ever had, though.

SG:I appologize, I mistyped and did not mean to lu...

2008-07-08T12:00:00.000-04:00

SG:

I appologize, I mistyped and did not mean to lump in NRLC with Obama's endorsements. He'd never get that.

I don't think that Bayh would be allowed to puruse a pro-life agenda. I just think the party will seek much more a purist on the issue. He has a reputation as being weak on abortion rights. The way I handicap the VEEPstakes that's a deficiency for him.

Pete:I don't think there's anyone in the Democrati...

2008-07-08T11:46:00.000-04:00

Pete:

I don't think there's anyone in the Democratic Party who seriously believes that Bayh would use a VP slot to push a pro-life agenda. And if anyone in the party DOES believe such a thing, then they're so stupid that they really ought to be Republicans.

There's a big difference between someone who is personally pro-life and has reservations about late-term abotions and someone who would like to take away abortion rights altogether (eg. McCain).

I'm somewhat confused by your statement...you say Obama wants the endorsement of NARAL *and* Right To Life? What?

PSmithI think McCain can get away with changing hi...

2008-07-08T11:45:00.000-04:00

PSmith

I think McCain can get away with changing his positions better than Obama can b/c he is much more a known quantity and his reputaion as a moderate conservative is more established than Obama's as a centrist.

With Obama you must examine his admittedly scant record and life history to get a true impression of what his core values are. Much of that seems antithetical to this rightward tilt of late and exposes him to charges of being a chameleon, driven only by ambition to be President.

As far as Bayh goes, I agree than in the abstract he offers balance to the ticket, but given that he fails on one of the litmos tests of party fidelity among national Democrats his nomnination as VEEP would be problematical. Especially given that so much of the left wing establishment is already up in arms over his recent tacking to the right.

P Kent - I'm not entirely sure what your point is ...

2008-07-08T11:34:00.000-04:00

P Kent - I'm not entirely sure what your point is on this though I agreed with much of your original post as to why other candidates would not be chosen. Whether you believe Obama or not about his desire to unite left and right, my point is that he will want to appear to do so in making his choice for VP. You mentioned Bayh's pro life slant and I simply pointed out that that offered balance to the ticket.

As for your implicit criticism of Obama's policy changes, you can't have it both ways. If he does nothing, some will call him the most liberal senator since Lenin and beholden to Soros/MoveOn and if he modifies his position he is an unprincipled flip flopper. To any objective observer, both candidates have modified their positions though there is still plenty of difference between them for this election to be meaningful.

Personally I think all of this media driven froth about flip flopping and nuance misses the point completely. On any representation of the candidates' words, there are stark differences between the two candidates; on Iraq, on tax cuts, on health, on the environment etc. It's a shame that the media spend so little time examining the substance of those differences rather than playing to the tit for tat drivel that both campaign's attack dogs spew out at their daily conference calls.

Anonymous at 7:25 said:Something that's been buggi...

2008-07-08T11:17:00.000-04:00

Anonymous at 7:25 said:

Something that's been bugging me a while is Richardson's so-called reputation as a womanizer. It seems to me we didn't hear much about this until after he dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Obama. I don't mean to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but I can't help but wonder if these rumors, which I've never seen substantiated in any concrete way at all, were just started by vindictive Clinton staffers who didn't want "Judas" to collect his 30 pieces of silver.

My spouse has worked in politics for almost thirty years. Believe me, those rumors about Richardson are nothing new. Don't blame the Clintons for this one.

SG said... "Bayh is not pro-life, he is simply a n...

2008-07-08T11:16:00.000-04:00

SG said...
"Bayh is not pro-life, he is simply a not pro-choice purist"

In fact the National Right to Life Committee gave him only a 25% rating.

Isn't Obama actively seeking (or has already received) the NARAL and NRLC endorsements? I think Bayh's selection would outrage the Democratic party faithful especially in its already disenchanted feminist wing.

To P Smith's point, Obama must first prove that he is a man of principle and all this moving to the right to make himself more electable cannot continue to be disguised as "new politics" or "not playing the game".

Very powerful influences have annointed Obama (George Soros, MoveOn.Org) and they together with the opinion leaders in the liberal blogosphere which is the keeper of the message may be hungry for a victory, but they want vindication of liberalism along with it.

Thier embrace of Bill Clinton did nothing to advance the progressive cause. They will not let Obama off his leash lightly.

As I said above I agree entirely that Obama-Bayh w...

2008-07-08T11:06:00.000-04:00

As I said above I agree entirely that Obama-Bayh would be one of the best options. The whole point of Obama's appeal is that he does not play the game of "you're either with us or against us" and it would send all the right signals to have someone with a more conservative view on social issues on the ticket. He was also an early supporter of Clinton so his nomination would be warmly received by her supporters and also by independent voters and soft Republicans.

My apologies for calling him 'young'. I was trying to express what the media criticism of the joint ticket might be. Personally I think he would be an excellent choice for VP.

Note, I have not sought to argue that his selection puts Indiana in play. While it would undoubtedly help to put Indiana in play, Obama will have won in a landslide already if Indiana is even close. The selection of VP should be based on a broader strategy not putting individual states in play. After all, Edwards couldn't deliver North Carolina and as President, Gore couldn't deliver Tennessee.