Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Popular Vote v Electoral Vote, Part II

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2009-02-09T01:45:00.000-05:00

Allen- You write: "That is clearly much more than ...

2008-07-10T16:54:00.000-04:00

Allen- You write: "That is clearly much more than "slippage toward an assumed 'mean' of a tie". The only way to get something like that is to factor in the possibility of huge shifts in public opinion that can only be caused by unpredictable events. Any attempt to assign probabilities to these kinds of events is essentially arbitrary."

That's exactly the issue. Based on a collection of previous elections Nate makes a crude estimate of about how much things typically change from early July to Nov. It's that spread of possibilities, plus the slippage back toward a tie, which give the extremes etc. which you noticed in the histograms.
Of course you're right that big things can happen (e.g. bombing Iran) which throw a wrench in any prediction. The old data at least give some idea of how often such big events occur, and that shows up in the projected probabilities.

To NKpolitics:You must be a fan of Jacqueline Susa...

2008-07-10T13:56:00.000-04:00

To NKpolitics:

You must be a fan of Jacqueline Susann (as in her novel, "Once Is Not Enough"). Repreating a post multiple times? Looks as though we'll need to summon the "Three Billygoats Gruff"

(For those who may not remember the story or were never exposed to it, it's a Scandanavian folk tale in which three billy goat brothers dispose of an evil troll.)

I see that there are a small number of scenarios w...

2008-07-10T13:15:00.000-04:00

I see that there are a small number of scenarios where there is a 269-269 tie.

there are several scenarios, but the most plausible have to do with NH going for McCain and and various splits of NV, CO and NM.

Obama can win the popular vote but lose the electo...

2008-07-10T12:46:00.004-04:00

Obama can win the popular vote but lose the electoral college.
The Obama states are
1)California
2)Connecticut
3)Delaware
4)District of Columbia
5)Hawaii
6)Illinios
7)Maine
8)Maryland
9)Massachusetts
10)Minnesota
11)New York
12)Rhode Island
13)Vermont
14)Washington
178.

The McCain states are
1)Alabama
2)Alaska
3)Arizona
4)Arkansas
5)Florida
6)Georgia
7)Idaho
8)Kansas
9)Kentucky
10)Louisiana
11)Mississippi
12)Missouri
13)Nebraska
14)Nevada
15)North Carolina
16)North Dakota
17)Oklahoma
18)South Carolina
19)South Dakota
20)Tennessee
21)Texas
22)Utah
24)West Virginia
25)Wyoming.
218.

Obama will do better than Kerry in a dozen of those Red States.
Alabama,Alaska,Georgia,Idaho,Kansas,Louisiana,Mississippi,Nebraska,
North Carolina,North Dakota,South Carolina,South Dakota,Texas,Utah,and Wyoming.
as well as Montana and Indiana. and purplesh red states such as Colorado and Virginia.
Obama will perform better than Kerry in purpleish blue states such as.
Iowa,New Hampshire,New Jersey,New Mexico,Oregon,Pennsylvania and
Wisconsin.

That leaves Colorado,Michigan,Ohio,and Virginia as the tossup states.
Lets give Obama-Colorado, McCain-Virginia and Ohio.
Michigan becomes the state that decides who wins the 2008 Presidential election.

Obama can win the popular vote but lose the electo...

2008-07-10T12:46:00.003-04:00

Obama can win the popular vote but lose the electo...

2008-07-10T12:46:00.002-04:00

Anon @ 1119.Thanks for the walk down memory lane!U...

2008-07-10T12:46:00.001-04:00

Anon @ 1119.

Thanks for the walk down memory lane!

Use the Name/URL Option and you can give yoursel and identity.

Obama can win the popular vote but lose the electo...

2008-07-10T12:46:00.000-04:00

Obama can win the popular vote but lose the electo...

2008-07-10T12:45:00.001-04:00

@Pete Kent:You are correct that the national popul...

2008-07-10T12:45:00.000-04:00

@Pete Kent:

You are correct that the national popular vote is meaningless in the election of the President. If it is meaningful in Nate's model, that is only because he has chosen to make it meaningful by linking or correlating it with the individual state outcomes. This correlation may not hold in this or any other election.

(I suppose I should get an account name to post he...

2008-07-10T12:19:00.000-04:00

(I suppose I should get an account name to post here.)

Pete Kent wrote:

"There was a "Bookshelf" game out in the 70s that I used to play on Presidential Politics that perfectly illustrated this theory."

Mr. President

(http://boardgamegeek.com/game/476)

I still have my copy :)

@MikeWLook at the electoral vote distribution. In...

2008-07-10T11:53:00.000-04:00

@MikeW

Look at the electoral vote distribution. In Nate's model, there is some probability that McCain could get all of the votes, or Obama could get all of the votes. That is clearly much more than "slippage toward an assumed 'mean' of a tie". The only way to get something like that is to factor in the possibility of huge shifts in public opinion that can only be caused by unpredictable events. Any attempt to assign probabilities to these kinds of events is essentially arbitrary.

As most pollster acknowledge, the polls can tell us who is ahead today but they can't tell us who is still going to be ahead on Nov. 4. No one knows what is going to happen during the course of the campaign and how this will change public sentiment between now and election day. Any attempt to assign probabilities to this is essentially arbitrary.

Nate: Is there any chance of showing a simple grap...

2008-07-10T11:40:00.000-04:00

Nate: Is there any chance of showing a simple graph showing the data points of past Presidential elections -- with the X axis number of electoral votes and the Y axis popular vote margin? That would be more informative than the current presentation.

P.S.: Will you people PLEASE stop feeding the troll!

Pete Kent keeps attacking Nate's methodology and yet he keeps coming back around because you refuse to ignore him!

As for his cracker-barrel wisdom and McCain talking points disguised as "analysis" this is a site that SHOULD be devoted to serious analysis. There's no point arguing with idiots who argue "you have your numbers, I have THE numbers." (like Rove October 2006).

Michael said... Try me, Pete. Most of what you giv...

2008-07-10T11:36:00.000-04:00

Michael said...
Try me, Pete. Most of what you give here are talking points, NOT statistics. Explain why McCain has a better chance at a landslide if he's up a few points than Obama does it he's up a few points

Imagine if you had 500 tokens to throw into any of the 50 states you chose. Imagine your opponent having the same. You throw all of your tokens into NY, CA and IL, assuring victory in those three states. Your opponent spreads his out among the other 47. He wins in an electoral landslide even though you both had the same number of votes.

There was a "Bookshelf" game out in the 70s that I used to play on Presidential Politics that perfectly illustrated this theory.

Do you understand now, Michael?

I am an old man! You must be patient with my failings!

Allen- That's not quite it. The projected 3.4% alr...

2008-07-10T11:23:00.000-04:00

Allen- That's not quite it. The projected 3.4% already includes some slippage toward an assumed 'mean' of a tie. The reason the win probability is much less than for simple 3.4% lead is that there are also large error bars in estimating the Nov. margin. Looking at the P(win) vs. popular margin curve, it shows major downward curvature in the right side. So increasing the error bars there decreases the average win %. To reiterate: the projection already includes both a regression toward 0% margin and a large range of future margins, much bigger than random polling statistics require. The regression is a somewhat iffy extrapolation from previous data, the added uncertainty is solidly based on data and common sense.

p.s. I WOuld probably just toss the ZI polls. Some combination of large net errors, systematic net bias, and seemingly flawed methods should trigger some threshold 'toss' procedure. Is there a way to formulate that as a reasonable algorithm, rather than just an ad-hoc patch?

p.ps. You still should go to a discrete convolution of states + numerical integral over global changes calculation technique to get rid of the statistical noise from your Monte Carlo simulations.

the shape of the curve (is it a tanh or does it ju...

2008-07-10T11:17:00.000-04:00

the shape of the curve (is it a tanh or does it just look like it?) is very intuitive. what is surprising is the slope..
1% in vote count results in around 60% probability of victory..

You might have answered this question before but how are you estimating the heterogeneity in turnout in different states?

I have nothing to add, but I love S curves.

2008-07-10T11:15:00.000-04:00

I have nothing to add, but I love S curves.

Try me, Pete. Most of what you give here are talki...

2008-07-10T11:14:00.000-04:00

Try me, Pete. Most of what you give here are talking points, NOT statistics. Explain why McCain has a better chance at a landslide if he's up a few points than Obama does it he's up a few points.