Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Rich and Poor Voters in 2008

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2009-10-10T04:18:15.410-04:00

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2009-04-23T07:46:00.000-04:00

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This data makes perfect sense according to what I ...

2009-03-22T18:43:00.000-04:00

This data makes perfect sense according to what I have learned about political beliefs and behaviors in my government and politics class. It reflects the differences in beliefs of the different socioeconomic classes and how we think the government should be involved in our lives.
These graphs show that rich people usually vote for Republicans. Republicans generally care about keeping traditions and keeping the government out of their business. This makes sense when you think about it because rich people have more to lose if the government gets involved.
On the other hand, poor people want to vote for someone who will have a lot of social programs for them. They care about benefits like social security, food stamps, and disabilities benefits. Democrats care more about the population’s well being.

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2009-03-22T12:07:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-17T23:03:00.000-04:00

Nate, your website is amazing! I'd been following ...

2009-03-12T23:57:00.000-04:00

Nate, your website is amazing! I'd been following it since June 2008 and your analysis always reveals something deeper about the electorate. I'm from India, and we're having elections in April - the opinion polls are usually way off because the demographics and politics are so incredibly complex (think America x3, with 16 major languages, dozens of religions, 1000s of sects, and a nation with nearly as many millionaires as the US, and as many impoverished people as sub-Saharan Africa - and oh yeah, 40 major political parties, many of them with a strong presence in only 1-2 states). If you ever get so good at American politics that its no longer a challenge (I think you're close to that point) I invite you to do some analysis on Indian elections - I know I would enjoy it :)

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2009-03-09T08:27:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-09T08:25:00.000-04:00

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Don't forget that Obama won those making more than...

2009-03-08T11:16:00.000-04:00

Don't forget that Obama won those making more than $200,000 a year and Kerry won billionaires.

The effect of income on the tendency to vote repub...

2009-03-08T03:52:00.000-04:00

The effect of income on the tendency to vote republican seems less for wealthy states. It would be interesting to see these values normalized by median income or plotted against percentile.

Could you get percentile income distributions for census tracts and then code voters according to whether they are in the 10th, 50th , or 90th percentiles for their census tract?

And then regress voter intent against percentile?

here's what the CNN's exit poll for West Virginia ...

2009-03-07T16:52:00.000-05:00

here's what the CNN's exit poll for West Virginia http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=WVP00p2:

Under $15,000 (8%): N/A N/A N/A (sample size too small)
$15-30,000 (16%): 62% Obama 37% McCain.

Where McCain killed us was the $50,000 to $75,000

$50-75,000 (22%) Obama 34% McCain 64%

I'd like to see an overlay illustrating return on ...

2009-03-07T09:27:00.000-05:00

I'd like to see an overlay illustrating return on the federal dollar for each state. That way we might correlate dependence on federal revenue with income and voting. Come to think of it, that would wind up looking pretty ugly -- unless we just used deep red for the states that made a "profit" (e.g. AK, LA, KY, AZ), and deep blue for those that were most "disadvantaged" (e.g. NJ, CT, CA, NY). You'd hardly have to change anything then (voters in any state where you did might have some questions for their elected representatives).

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2009-03-07T08:54:00.000-05:00

I would love to see similar maps based on levels o...

2009-03-07T08:35:00.000-05:00

I would love to see similar maps based on levels of education. I'm a college political science instructor at the University of Iowa and I just finished a unit with my students talking about what would happen if only the politically-informed were allowed to vote. Education would probably be the best proxy variable to simulate that effect.

can a feature be added to the site to search posts...

2009-03-06T20:00:00.000-05:00

can a feature be added to the site to search posts by a specific author? for instance, i only recently realized that andrew had started posting, and i'd be interested in reading just the posts made by him... but there is no easy way to do that... is this easily fixable? it should be, considering the label search.

thanks.

@Evan NelsonTo clarify, I'm male. I know, I know,...

2009-03-06T18:56:00.000-05:00

@Evan Nelson

To clarify, I'm male. I know, I know, the name is confusing, but this Kelsey is totally a boy.

Yeah, class in the US is hard to define. Or, rather, hard to find by individual admission. I've heard accounts that stretch middle class from having $4 million down to making around $30,000 a year, which is quite the stretch. I think that the internal state breakdown would help, but I also think that these graphs do a pretty decent job otherwise.

Andrew,Please, PLEASE give us some analysis of the...

2009-03-06T18:46:00.000-05:00

Andrew,

Please, PLEASE give us some analysis of the scatterplot data. For example: it looks to me like people in richer states vote more Democratic no matter what their actual income is. Is this correct? Or am I reading the plots wrong?

(sorry if this is a re-post - attempt #1 at commenting seems to have gotten eaten)

The $40k to 75k map looked awfully close to the ac...

2009-03-06T18:42:00.000-05:00

The $40k to 75k map looked awfully close to the actual election red/blue map.
Also, on the "poor map" the common denominator of UT, WY, ID, and WY is whiteness.

You forgot Hawaii and Alaska. Although i will ass...

2009-03-06T16:57:00.000-05:00

You forgot Hawaii and Alaska. Although i will assume Hawaii was blue in all 3 and Alaska was red in all 3....but maybe Obama won alaska voters earning 20,000 or less?

@nova_middle_manThere's actually research that sho...

2009-03-06T15:21:00.000-05:00

@nova_middle_man

There's actually research that shows that the presence of blacks in a state can conversely help Republicans win votes. Tom Schaller says that the higher the black population in a state, the more racially polarizing the voting is along party lines. Case in point, Mississippi has the highest black proportion out of any state, yet, whites went for McCain 88 to 11, and blacks went for Obama 98 to 2. Yet on the flipside, we have Maine, which the black population is less than 1 percent there. There, whites went for Obama 58 to 40. So while having more minorities in a place can boost Democratic votes, it also has the potential of creating a lower for for total Democratic votes in a state.

Could you please add the EV count to the maps? Th...

2009-03-06T14:52:00.000-05:00

Could you please add the EV count to the maps? Thank you.

@ mcleverI think that is mostly racial see my hypo...

2009-03-06T14:25:00.000-05:00

@ mclever

I think that is mostly racial see my hypothesis above that non-whites are poorer and vote more towards democrats.

What you would be looking for is poor whites voting democrat. I think that is highly unlikely still.

@ john theibault Interesting. Several causes perh...

2009-03-06T14:23:00.000-05:00

@ john theibault

Interesting. Several causes perhaps.

Overall ideological bent of the state. Hypothesis. Rich people only vote Democrat if they are liberal. Rich people are only liberal if its a blue state to begin with. This would explain CT, NY, MD, VT

Racial Makeup of the state. Hypothesis in Red leaning states racial makeup influences the vote. Whites are more well-off and vote Republican. Non-whites are statisctically lower income and vote democrat. This would explain OK, TN, and other southern states as well

WY has few minoirites which would explain consistent redness.

NJ is not liberal which would exaplain the gap

MA is interesting. My hypothesis would say there is a large minority population (dunno), MA is not liberal (false)