Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/13

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2009-09-11T08:34:33.250-04:00

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2009-03-12T01:49:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T01:49:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T21:35:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-19T09:58:00.000-05:00

this should be called McCain's 9-11 bounce. it wi...

2008-09-14T21:38:00.000-04:00

this should be called McCain's 9-11 bounce. it will be insignificant after debates and further scrutiny of McCain's bullsiht ads

> false claims about forcing creationism and banni...

2008-09-14T13:54:00.000-04:00

> false claims about forcing creationism and banning books

False or exaggerated rumors floating around the net do not abolish these findings:

Palin is on record for peddling creationism as a viable "alternative" to evolution worth being discussed in science class, in accord with a common creationist tactic seeking to portray evolution as "just another theory"...

http://dwb.adn.com/news/politics/elections/story/8347904p-8243554c.html

…and having fired a librarian after she inquired about the possibility of banning books, probably motivated by her Church’s teachings:

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5it8KyOqY5ZF4nQaF8rc4tX5tLvCgD93535600

Chuck, it technically adds up to 272 if you start ...

2008-09-14T12:27:00.000-04:00

Chuck, it technically adds up to 272 if you start with Kerry's 251 with one Minnesota defection to Edwards--but at least if there is a 269 tie we can be almost assured there will be no such accident (the elector in question had a senior moment, and quite frankly it was a microcosm of all the other problems the Democrats had around 2004 with all their Senate and House losses.)

If MN isn't encouraging for McCain, then CO's post...

2008-09-14T11:47:00.000-04:00

If MN isn't encouraging for McCain, then CO's post dem convention 1-3 point lead for Obama CERTAINLY isn't encouraging for him.

National Trackers you say, justin?MCCAIN HIT 50% F...

2008-09-14T11:21:00.000-04:00

National Trackers you say, justin?

MCCAIN HIT 50% FOR THE FIRST TIME TODAY IN RAS!

It'll be a careful balance with Palin. If they let...

2008-09-14T11:05:00.001-04:00

It'll be a careful balance with Palin. If they let her talk to every media show there is then Americans will suffer from Palin fatigue.

If she continues to ignore the media then eventually the media will get the message and start ignoring her.

I get the feeling they are going for a middle ground approach with limited exposure to the media like the Gibson interview.

In the end some of the hype is bound to fade, that's just the nature of all things novel. It's just a matter of how well the McCain campaign can extend it.

"McCain continues to surge in the polls"McCain con...

2008-09-14T11:05:00.000-04:00

"McCain continues to surge in the polls"

McCain continuing to surge in the polls? The national trackers are drifting towards Obama.

The MN poll is encouraging for McCain, but it's the first to come out since the RNC, so it's impossible to say that his momentum is still building. In fact, most evidence nationwide says it isn't.

"Democrats always bet the farm on the "youth" vote...

2008-09-14T11:03:00.000-04:00

"Democrats always bet the farm on the "youth" vote and it never happens. They don't really care about anything but getting the money together to go to that next concert, or the new gizmo from Apple."

Thanks for that patronizing analysis, but that isn't true. My only opinion is based on my own experience, but in 2004 I was in college and while I voted, I know a lot of my friends didn't. We didn't talk about the election much.

I am at a different school now (for grad school) but the demographics are similar. The level of interest I have seen in this election compared to in '04 does not compare. Will it translate to the polls? I don't know....college/grad students and young profressionals on the whole work much harder than other age groups, so maybe they won't do their civic duty. But if I were a GOP supporter, I wouldn't count on it.

Whether it will really be different on election day remains to be seen, but the level of excitement/interest in the election is unlike anything in my lifetime.

Libs always say "the truth is coming out! Palin is...

2008-09-14T10:55:00.000-04:00

Libs always say "the truth is coming out! Palin is done!" as McCain continues to surge in the polls (like MN, which used to be safe Democrat).

You've gotta love this becoming a GOP bragging boa...

2008-09-14T10:54:00.000-04:00

You've gotta love this becoming a GOP bragging board.

Palin has swung women voters to McCain in the immediately post-convention polls because, well, she's a woman. The more that comes out about her, however, the less attractive she seems to be to socially moderate or liberal women. The assumption that the swing is permanent would be a dangerous one.

There's a good front-page article in the Wash Post today (online access for now is subscriber-limited) about her time as mayor of Wasilla, summarizing

-how she fired the city librarian (for saying she would refuse to ban any books) before re-hiring her due to public outrage;
-how her city charged rape victims for their own rape kits;
-how she built an NHL-size hockey rink (on land the city didn't have clear title to) instead of the new city library citizens had been clamoring for for years;
-how she expanded the budget of the town by 50%

and more. The truth is coming out, and the voters who rushed to her thinking she is really a small-government, ethical reformer will leave as fast as they came.

Vanessa - i agree obama is a great candidate - but...

2008-09-14T10:53:00.001-04:00

Vanessa - i agree obama is a great candidate - but his people aren't suited to the next 50 days. Noone in his top command has experience in a general election. Primary was more like an urban race, the ones that axelrod excelled at (Chicago Daley wins), general election is different. That's why he's floundering now, and needs some Clinton folks to shake things up.

Yes Vanessa it is as sick as you think it is.Democ...

2008-09-14T10:53:00.000-04:00

Yes Vanessa it is as sick as you think it is.

Democrats always bet the farm on the "youth" vote and it never happens. They don't really care about anything but getting the money together to go to that next concert, or the new gizmo from Apple.

It's sick alright... anemic is more the right word. I wouldn't trust those kids with my future, not one second. They only care about themselves.

Obama had the crowds 9 months ago because Jenny had a crush on Obama and he was the new sensation. Johnny went with Jenny to the Obama gig because Johnny wanted to get into Jenny's pants. Obama is not the star anymore and Jenny hates Johnny now and nobody cares.

Please don't tell me you have only this idea to fall back on!

Chun, I'd disagree with your prognosis for Palin s...

2008-09-14T10:49:00.001-04:00

Chun,
I'd disagree with your prognosis for Palin success. I think keeping access low means the media will continue to have hunger for it, and the bubble will continue. Plus, unless she does a major, major gaffe (remember biden is there matching her minor gaffe for minor gaffe now, not to mention obama minor gaffes and cainer minor gaffes), it could be a soft landing instead of a hard landing.

that's really the interesting thing about this election right now.

also, im not a true conservative, more centrist than not.

I have a lot of faith in Barack Obama and his inte...

2008-09-14T10:49:00.000-04:00

I have a lot of faith in Barack Obama and his intelligence.
I think he has run his campaign in a manner that I would like to see government run. Efficient and sensible.
Well John his get out the vote operation in the Primary was pretty darned good. If he can match or exceed that, I'd be very happy. Getting people to vote in the general is much harder than the primary.

"I just hope this get out the vote operation is as...

2008-09-14T10:46:00.000-04:00

"I just hope this get out the vote operation is as sick as they say it will be."

Yeah like Howard Dean's was. ROFL!

I just hope this get out the vote operation is as ...

2008-09-14T10:45:00.000-04:00

I just hope this get out the vote operation is as sick as they say it will be.

I think the MN surge is real.Alot of people in MN ...

2008-09-14T10:43:00.000-04:00

I think the MN surge is real.

Alot of people in MN will like Sarah Palin. They can identify and relate to her and they will vote for the Alaska Governor in mass.

Same with Washington State. They have close ties to Alaska.

Geoff,I agree it was a good move, though I am not ...

2008-09-14T10:39:00.000-04:00

Geoff,

I agree it was a good move, though I am not sure if he gave much thought to the long term. Now that Palin no longer has a convention to show herself off I think the luster will begin to fade.

If she wants to keep that from happening she'll need to be let free from her trainers and talk to the media.

BTW let me say that I am so happy to be able to talk to a intelligent conservative that won't hurl insults for no good reason. Class is a very hard thing to find on the internet.

Obama will lose the entire upper midwest it seems,...

2008-09-14T10:35:00.001-04:00

Obama will lose the entire upper midwest it seems, too.

MN? Trouble in MN?

ITS OVER BABY!

Hey Nate! Minnesota's "Gold Standard" poll came i...

2008-09-14T10:35:00.000-04:00

Hey Nate! Minnesota's "Gold Standard" poll came in this morning!

Minnesota Star Tribune Obama 45, McCain 45 Tie

The 'money' factoid from the poll and quoted from the Minneapolis Star Tribune this morning is:

"Despite the widespread belief that Obama is overwhemlmingly popular among young voters, he and McCain are essentially tied with voters younger than 35" (Actual numbers for 18-34 are: McCain 46 and Obama 45.

Obviously, with Minnesota tied, Obama is in very serious trouble nationwide.