Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Gallup Shows an Initial Convention Bounce for Obam...

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2009-03-12T01:16:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T01:16:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-09T21:57:00.000-05:00

I believe it is obvious pandering to the female po...

2008-08-30T11:45:00.000-04:00

I believe it is obvious pandering to the female population of this state. Wil some women vote for McCain/Pallin just because he selected a woman? Sure, but I think at least an equal number will feel trivialized by his selection of an *unqualified* woman.
Additionally, many people are going back and forth on the abortion issue, as we all tend to do. However, I think the ultimate message is that Pallin is against ALL forms of abortion, including incest and rape. That means that if a 12 year old girl is raped by her father and becomes pregnant, that girl (in the eyes of Pallin) should be required to carry the baby to term and suffer even farther psychological damage than has already been done.
Please don't tell me this rarely happens, as I work in a school for teen moms/victims, and it happens. A lot.
Finally, few are mentioning her position on aerial shooting. That is, she is supporting the measures in Alaska to allow low-flying helicopters to shoot semi-automatic weapons into the wilderness to control a population of wolves, that are already endangered. How many innocent people and animals will be hurt in such a practice?
In today's society, we need leadership who will be pro-environment, not ignore the fact that global warming even exists.

Regarding McCain VP picks. (Ridge,Romney,and Pawle...

2008-08-28T21:18:00.000-04:00

Regarding McCain VP picks. (Ridge,Romney,and Pawlenty). Ridge is pro choice so it is unlikely he will be McCain's running mate. That leaves us Romney and Pawlenty.
CW is that Romney helps McCain in Michigan due to his family ties- George Romney was MI Governor 40 years ago and He was a moderate unlike Romney. MI is not going to McCain even with Romney on the Ticket. NH-(Boston Media)- Romney is not that popular in NH. CO and NV despite the Mormon Population is trending Democratic.
Pawlenty is not going to deliver MN. He almost lost re-election in 2006 had it not be for the gaffes of his Democratic opponent.
Regarding Biden- DE is part of the Philidelphia Media Market.

Regarding McCain's VP runningmate. If McCain wants...

2008-08-28T20:24:00.000-04:00

Regarding McCain's VP runningmate.
If McCain wants to win the 2008 Presidential Election this November. He needs to pick Tom Ridge as his VP runningmate. Ridge helps McCain in PA. McCain is favored to win FL. OH and MI are tossups- If McCain wins FL,PA,OH,and MI= plus 189ev Base. McCain becomes President without winning. VA,MO,CO,IA,NV,NM,and NH.
Ridge is pro choice so it is unlikely he will be McCain's runningmate. PA will go to Obama,thanks to Biden pick.
Regarding Romney- Romney helps McCain in MI(his Home state). assuming McCain wins FL,OH,and MI plus 189ev base. 253ev. McCain-Romney ticket needs to win VA and MO to win the White House. (VA and CO are trending Democratic and Obama won those states in the Primary and has a chance to win those States in the General election. That leaves NV and NH. Both of these states are trending Democratic. We give Obama NV McCain NH. Obama wins the WhiteHouse.
It is unlikely Pawlenty will deliver MN- the home of Humphrey,Mondale,McCarthy and Wellstone. MI,and NH will go to Obama.

I am a Yellow Dog DEMOCRAT.I have been since 1988....

2008-08-28T20:02:00.000-04:00

I am a Yellow Dog DEMOCRAT.

I have been since 1988.

However, I think that liberals are making a mistake by not listening to people who have different views.

How the hell are you going to learn to beat them if you don't listen to them?

FWIW, all Obama needs to do to win is to get the Hillary voters to vote for him.

Let's hope that is what the swing in the polls was.

So a 1-day 5-pt bounce, on the same day that CNN s...

2008-08-28T19:39:00.000-04:00

So a 1-day 5-pt bounce, on the same day that CNN shows Obama winning NV by 5 and losing Colorado by 1.

I'm going to just start ignoring individual polls and looking at the aggregate once a week.

For those righties who keep saying,thinking McCain...

2008-08-28T19:15:00.000-04:00

For those righties who keep saying,thinking McCain will get a bounce out of the GOP convention, think again.

Nobody cares about the GOP convention. Hell, most GOP don't dare about their convention (how many Senators are not going?).

McCain and company will basically be talking to themselves, and a vapid media wanting to sink Obama and boost McCain.

But unfortunately. Most people who haven't been following the campaign, will watch Obama's speech tonight, than watch any part of the dreadful republican campaign.

McCain at most; will get a temporary 2 point bounce out of his convention, if any at all (media complicity be damned)!

I think it's interesting that McCain is struggling...

2008-08-28T19:07:00.000-04:00

I think it's interesting that McCain is struggling to get 15,000 people to attend his VP announcement in Ohio, the day after Obama packs in more than 70,000. It's even more interesting that the largest McCain crowd so far as been only 3000 for the whole campaign to date.
BTW, the tickets to the McCain event are free, and they still can't 'sell out' the venue.

VirCon,
now Ayers' wife is a scary terrorist? No, she isn't. And Ayers was never convicted of anything. But you just want to "raise questions", not make any accusations. Perhaps the same boy who delivered newspapers to Ayers' house also delivered them to Obama's house. Did they shop at the same grocery store? Hmmm. Sure "raises questions", without meaning anything.

Did John McCain share the same area code as a child molester or meth addict? Hmmm. Certainly "raises questions", doesn't it? Why wouldn't he change his phone number or move, unless he wanted to associate himself with that kind of thing?

Probability McCain doesn't survive the next four y...

2008-08-28T18:17:00.000-04:00

Probability McCain doesn't survive the next four years. (From SSA's actuarial life table @ http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html ).

1-((1-.032978)*(1-.036086)*(1-.039506)*(1-.43415))*100% = 14.36%

That's 1 out of 7 samples. Someone please explain how he can make a "maverick" pick in good conscience...oh wait, he's senile. No explanation necessary.

Daniel: Thanks for posting your political evoluti...

2008-08-28T18:12:00.000-04:00

Daniel: Thanks for posting your political evolution. I think there are quite a few old-school conservatives (small gov't, balanced budgets, libertarian, FP realism) who are quite disenchanted with the modern R party (large gov't, reckless borrowing, increasingly authoritarian, FP "adventurism"). Part of your history I would quibble with, however:

Reagan was a fiscal conservative, tried and true. He was a gentleman who got tough when he needed to. But the Republican party became very fiscally irresponsible in the 90s ...

Reagan increased spending (mostly military) while cutting taxes, leading to ballooning deficits. The tax increase under Bush Sr helped turn the deficit around (I actually have some respect for him -- it cost him politically, but it was the right thing to do for the country), along with those under Clinton. Then through most of the 90s, Clinton and the R congress were at odds, with the result that spending increases were modest while the economy grew robustly, and the budget came briefly into surplus. Now of course we're back to cutting taxes while increasing spending and multiple wars, and the deficit is exploding again.

In short, Reagan may be the quintessential conservative in many ways, but he wasn't a fiscal conservative.

Yeah that's totally the same as Ayer's wife holdin...

2008-08-28T18:08:00.001-04:00

Yeah that's totally the same as Ayer's wife holding a fundraiser for him that launched him into the State Senate!

Once again, she did no such thing, you stupid fucking lying asshole.

http://www.stormfront.org/forum/showpost.php?s=d8f...

2008-08-28T18:08:00.000-04:00

http://www.stormfront.org/forum/showpost.php?s=d8f44f54f1fbe66ae16278a60b923dad&p=5724832&postcount=30

"Real White Nationalists back the White candidate - Senator John McCain for President"

While the majority of stormfront opposes McCain, there's plenty of support for him there. Not that such things are relevant, of course -- except to turnip brains like VA Cretin, but of course only if they can be used against Obama or libruls or the "Democrat" Party. What a despicable sack of garbage he is. I've had enough for today, and need to go take a long shower to clean it off.

Oh really jqb? A blog?Yeah that's totally the same...

2008-08-28T18:01:00.000-04:00

Oh really jqb? A blog?

Yeah that's totally the same as Ayer's wife holding a fundraiser for him that launched him into the State Senate! Completely the same!

Give the name of a white supremacist who held a fu...

2008-08-28T17:54:00.000-04:00

Give the name of a white supremacist who held a fundraiser for John McCain.

See

http://mccainduke2008.wordpress.com/

I seriously doubt it

No one gives a fuck what a shit-for-brains cretin like you doubts.

I'd bet money those nuts are voting Constitution P...

2008-08-28T17:51:00.000-04:00

I'd bet money those nuts are voting Constitution Party.

Oh, well, it must be true if you would bet on it.

Meanwhile you're still a retarded lying sack of shit; Ayers's wife never held a fundraiser for Obama.

VA CONRalph Reed held a fundraiser for McCain in A...

2008-08-28T17:48:00.000-04:00

VA CON

Ralph Reed held a fundraiser for McCain in Atlanta recently. But then Reed scurried away from it because McCain had the good sense not to be seen with him.

UGH

"Oh, and I guess white supremacists showing their ...

2008-08-28T17:45:00.002-04:00

"Oh, and I guess white supremacists showing their support for McCain by trying to kill Obama isn't nearly as bad in your book as holding a fundraiser."

I'd bet money those nuts are voting Constitution Party. John McCain supports "amnesty" so they're not voting for him, sorry to burst your bubble.

SEDII was kidding about the ID poll. Just an oppor...

2008-08-28T17:45:00.001-04:00

SEDI

I was kidding about the ID poll. Just an opportunity to take some cheap shots @ Craig & family values... sorry

I had already perused the ID poll through Pollster, but it appears pretty worthless in the internals, especially since they are an 'R'. It looks like they are pushing the GOPer senate candidate, but even in that race the DEM [LaRocco] has a shot at this point. Now that really would be something ! The internals for the senate race do not look too bad.

Really?Give the name of a white supremacist who he...

2008-08-28T17:45:00.000-04:00

Really?

Give the name of a white supremacist who held a fundraiser for John McCain.

I seriously doubt it since, you know, in the white supremacist movement they call him "Juan" McCain and think he's some kind of Mexican plant.

Oh, and I guess white supremacists showing their s...

2008-08-28T17:43:00.000-04:00

Oh, and I guess white supremacists showing their support for McCain by trying to kill Obama isn't nearly as bad in your book as holding a fundraiser.

If a white supremacist (or a wife of one) ever hel...

2008-08-28T17:42:00.000-04:00

If a white supremacist (or a wife of one) ever held a fundraiser for McCain, I wouldn't vote for him.

You're an idiot and a liar; white supremacists hold fundraisers for McCain all the time. Apparently you are so fucking stupid that you think its only a fundraiser if the candidate is present. And you are so fucking stupid as to believe everything you read in World News Daily; Ayers' wife contributed $200 to Obama's campaign, but never hosted a fundraiser for him.

If a white supremacist (or a wife of one) ever hel...

2008-08-28T17:35:00.000-04:00

If a white supremacist (or a wife of one) ever held a fundraiser for McCain, I wouldn't vote for him.

Why'd Ayers wife hold a fundraiser for Obama?Why d...

2008-08-28T17:33:00.000-04:00

Why'd Ayers wife hold a fundraiser for Obama?

Why did a bunch a white supremacists try to assassinate him, cretin? We can find all sorts of unpleasant people who support McCain or Obama. That only reflects badly on McCain or Obama if, like the typical "conservative", you have the IQ of a turnip.