Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Organizing Update

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-02-15T21:42:00.000-05:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-02-15T03:03:00.000-05:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-02-15T02:26:00.000-05:00

Nate,surprised neither you nor your commenters hav...

2008-08-04T07:32:00.000-04:00

Nate,

surprised neither you nor your commenters have mentioned redistricting.

State houses that are seated now will draw the new boundaries for 2012. Obama is probably thinking about redistricting battles for the 2010 census - at least, in places like Indiana and Virginia (but not MT, AK, or ND, obviously).

Eric Cantor would be an excellent choice. He is on...

2008-08-03T17:51:00.000-04:00

Eric Cantor would be an excellent choice. He is one of the most effective Conservative Congressmen in the country, let alone Virginia.

He planned on becoming speaker of the House but for obvious reasons that isn't going to happen now, so he would very likely take being VP.

It's noticeable how most states are at least sligh...

2008-08-03T17:28:00.000-04:00

It's noticeable how most states are at least slightly competitive in this election. Only 4 states are currently predicted to go to one candidate by more than 20%: Oklahoma, Utah, Vermont, Rhode Island.

Everything costs money. Do we want 25% to not hav...

2008-08-03T17:27:00.000-04:00

Everything costs money. Do we want 25% to not have insurance, or have everyone covered and wait longer for care?

To those who responded:Perhaps you're right and Ob...

2008-08-03T17:15:00.000-04:00

To those who responded:

Perhaps you're right and Obama is just being prudent in chasing down as many leads as possible.. giving himself as many possible routes to victory as he can. But do you really think some of the states he is contesting will go blue unless there is a massive shift in voting intention nationwide? And if there is a massive voting shift he won't need those states anyways. So it seems unnecessary to me and a potential waste of money.

Places like Montana and Virginia are prime targets for the Dems and have been for years so it only makes sense to campaign there strongly. But the others I mentioned are not very good targets at all for the Dems.

Which is why I think that its arrogance that leads Obama to need to contest these places. But hey, I could be wrong. Maybe I'm just bitter because he didn't know that we have a PM and not a President. =P

Matt:

Well.. the health care system depends on where you live. If you live in one of the major cities it can be very good. If you live in a small city, you can be SOL. People who have potentially terminal illnesses have to wait years just to see a specialist. By the time that happened it is sometimes too late for surgery (ie one of my family members) - Of course, if we were in the USA we probably would get even less but...

For elective surgeries or minor things the wait can be ridiculous. To deal with a sty one of my friends had the option of waiting 2-3 months in Canada or going to the USA and having it done in a few minutes. Naturally they chose the latter.

Emergency room waits can be ridiculous, Sicko's false representation notwithstanding (I grew up in the city he featured). But things have improved with the increased number of private clinics available.

I'm not saying the USA is any better, and yes so long as we are in the hospital everything is covered. But there is a lot of complaining about the system in Canada. Just no one knows how to make it any better.

I know this is going out of topic by Sean, but as ...

2008-08-03T17:14:00.000-04:00

I know this is going out of topic by Sean, but as a Canadian I thought I would give my 2 cents.

We are not socialists, in fact I don't think we even had a left wing government, both liberals and conservatives are right of center parties(one further right than the other)

As for health care, we have a great system, not the best, but much better than the US. I know many people in the US who were denied insurance, or denied services by doctors due to their financial situation. That is absurd, and unheard of here.

My only complaint here is that it is mostly a single tier system, that the US should avoid once you join the rest of developed world with having a public health system.

Single tier systems do indeed remove competition and are not healthy environments for major advances in science and medicine.

Perhaps once the US has a public system, it will no longer be ranked no 37 in the world, behind Costa Rica!!!

john mccain for life!!!http://www.youtube.com/watc...

2008-08-03T16:39:00.000-04:00

john mccain for life!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7PfSEtiXPw

"Looks like McCain has solidified most of the deep...

2008-08-03T16:29:00.000-04:00

"Looks like McCain has solidified most of the deep red states from 2004"

Not true. VA, NC and FL could all easily go Blue. Additionally, according to Gallup Obama is gaining in swing states to increase his leads. McCain has to steal several states where he is down by over 5 points to win.

No wonder the GOP has gone all-in on negativity so early.

It's funny how the republicans are stupid.The real...

2008-08-03T16:17:00.000-04:00

It's funny how the republicans are stupid.
The reality is than at this moment Obama his numbers with Democrats and Independent are very low and McCain who is backing by more than 85% republicans is always behind or tied.
If i'm a republican, i'm sad with this.
When Hillary begins this month his campaign for him and after the convention, the Obama numbers will increase. It's not possible for him to be more low.
It's the reality.

Gotta love this quote from the Tulsa World about...

2008-08-03T15:46:00.000-04:00

Gotta love this quote from the Tulsa World about the poll:

"Another erstwhile Democrat, Charles Ogdon of Muldrow, said he believes Obama will be the next president, in part because Ogdon believes an Obama presidency would fit biblical prophesies concerning Armageddon and the Second Coming.

But Ogdon isn't happy about it."

Unclear pronoun reference leaves me wondering whether Ogdon is unhappy about Armageddon, or about an Obama presidency.

http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article.aspx?subjectID=16&articleID=20080803_16_A1_spancl643304

McCain's a better candidate than Dole. Dole was se...

2008-08-03T15:32:00.000-04:00

McCain's a better candidate than Dole. Dole was seen as an old hack. There are a lot of people that still buy into the maverick baloney.

Looks like McCain has solidified most of the deep ...

2008-08-03T15:31:00.000-04:00

Looks like McCain has solidified most of the deep red states from 2004. For eaxmple, the Sooner Poll shows him up 32 points in OK now, one point more than Bush beat Kerry by there. That may account for the tightening national popular vote polling numbers -- while the swing states remain with Obama still slightly ahead.

-formerly Mike H in Cali

Theres a reason the entire election is about Obama...

2008-08-03T15:22:00.000-04:00

Theres a reason the entire election is about Obama. Its not a referendum on Obama, its because we are watching the next president right now, and everyone knows it. Deep down the republicans know it too, but they are holding out hope, as would I. Nobody's covering McCain because he's just the generic opponent in a year he never had a chance.

Much like Bob Dole was. And as I watch McCain struggle to turn around from one side of the crowd to the other, I realize the similarities do not end there.

reading the numbers i don't think jewish voters ca...

2008-08-03T15:15:00.000-04:00

reading the numbers i don't think jewish voters can make the difference in this race...

Jeremy i think the gallup and rasmussen trackings ...

2008-08-03T15:13:00.000-04:00

Jeremy i think the gallup and rasmussen trackings are both showing that this race at the moment is a tossup...so it isn't much different if it's a pure tie or 1 or 2 points lead for Obama or McCain...

...but you see cantor helps with the Pro-Israel ba...

2008-08-03T15:02:00.000-04:00

...but you see cantor helps with the Pro-Israel base of the evangelicals that the Right needs. Those folks are not going to go for a Mormon like Romney who McCain doesn't like. Canter's also supposed to be ethically spotless....

So its not just a Jewish thing it helps shore up the Hagee crowd.

FWIW,The exit polls (not always a reliable indicat...

2008-08-03T14:58:00.000-04:00

FWIW,

The exit polls (not always a reliable indicator, but what we've got), show that Jews were 5% of the electorate in FL, 2% each in MI and PA, and 1% in OH.
Kerry got 80% of that vote in FL and 71% in MI; the Jewish vote wasn't broken out in PA or OH. Let's split the difference and say that Kerry got 75% in those two states.

If Cantor could bring the Jewish vote to 60-40 (which would be huge), that would be 1% of the vote in FL, 0.2% in MI, and on the order of 0.3% and 0.15% in PA and OH. And in MI, of course, that might be balanced a bit with a drop in the Arab vote (which had been fairly receptive to Bush in 2000 but was, unsurprisingly, less so in 2004).

I'll take a stab at Cantor-as-VP, though I'm sure ...

2008-08-03T14:47:00.000-04:00

I'll take a stab at Cantor-as-VP, though I'm sure there are other people who can speak much more authoritatively.
I think that both his social-conservative stance and his Jewishness could help McCain. The combination might be what's unproductive. Jewish voters are, on the whole, socially and economically more liberal than the country as a whole, and much more strongly aligned with the Democratic party.
Those who ARE more conservative are probably already voting Republican, those who are more liberal won't vote Republican just because there's a Jew on the ticket.
I suspect Lieberman is a much better surrogate for McCain with the Jewish community than Cantor would be because he appeals to those who are hawkish on Israel and defense, but socially more moderate. And, at that, Lieberman has a negative approval rating with Jews (37-48).
Cantor might be more useful in shoring up VA for the Republicans, but it's hard to know when he hasn't run for statewide office. He might also be useful in shoring up the support of social conservatives.
The fundraising issue seems a non-starter -- if McCain wants a great fundraiser, he can pick Romney. And surely good fundraisers don't need to be on the ticket to be inspired to fundraise?

Synonymous,To follow up on what Darcy said,If your...

2008-08-03T14:23:00.000-04:00

Synonymous,

To follow up on what Darcy said,

If your voter card is over a year old, call the county board to verify your current precinct. I know in Virginia, we'll get several people each election show up at the wrong precinct -- sometime their fault, sometimes not -- but a quick call will verify where we think they should be voting. They're not in our book, but they're probably in somebody's.

One thing Virginia does, though, is purge the rolls every 4 years. If the last time you voted was in 2004, they will remove you from the pollbook unless you re-register.

So, not just to Synonymous, but to *everyone* -- don't just assume you're registered, especially if you didn't vote this Spring.

Has the Rural vs. Urban thing been discussed in a ...

2008-08-03T14:22:00.000-04:00

Has the Rural vs. Urban thing been discussed in a thread here in the past? This was a big part of how Bush's people won Ohio in 2004.

Seriously though Filistro I wouldn't make out the ...

2008-08-03T14:20:00.000-04:00

Seriously though Filistro I wouldn't make out the whole GOP to be represented by this joker. That's so straw man. Its just too easy.

That Ayers stuff is just lame. Why would any real McCain supporter be dumb enough to think that would stick when large numbers of the American people don’t even seem to care about things like Monica Goodling or Rove railroading the Governor of Alabama?

I do see lots of thoughtful comments from some of the Republicans on here, though they may be tinged with things I don’t agree with.

Example: For all the negative talk about Rasmussen, I do think he gets his polling right.

Matt, this guy's act wouldn't make it on old Mushy...

2008-08-03T14:14:00.000-04:00

Matt, this guy's act wouldn't make it on old Mushy Eyebrow Hannity's show. Even Hannity would want someone with an IQ higher than this McCain storm trooper.