At midnight EST, the big news from Illinois is that the two favorites to win their respective nominations for race to fill the US Senate seat formerly held by President Obama have won, but both primary contests for the IL governor's race are squeakers too close to call.
State treasurer Alexi Giannoulias bested four other contenders to win the Democratic nomination for Senate, with former Chicago inspector general David Hoffman finishing second by about five points, 39 percent to 34 percent, with 96 percent of precincts reported. On the Republican side, Congressman Mark Kirk captured 57 percent of the vote, trouncing his five opponents, none of whom got more than 20 percent.
The gubernatorial primaries are more interesting, as the margins in both races are less than 1 percent as of this writing. State senator Bill Brady has a slim lead of a little more than 1,000 votes over state senate colleague Kirk Dillard in the Republican contest; meanwhile, Democrat Pat Quinn, who succeeded scandal-plagued Rod Blagojevich one year ago this week, is hanging on for dear life against Comptroller Dan Hynes.
Short of winning Ted Kennedy's former seat (check), winning the president's former Senate seat carries significant symbolic value to Republicans. As Nate wrote recently, Giannoulias is expected to be a solid favorite over Kirk--but we've heard that story before. The question now is whether the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Republican donors around the country will risk committing resources to Illinois or target more promising races.
2.03.2010
IL Primaries: Giannoulias v. Kirk, Both Gubernatorial Races Too Close to Call
@ 12:37 AM
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Some lady on Hardball was saying that Democrats are 'not the favorites' in the IL senate race, but I don't see how you could reasonably make that assessment now.
The NRSC will pour money into here. Starting tomorrow.
I feel like the guy (gal, actually) in Massachusetts seeing all the signs of imminent defeat that the experts were supposed to see, but didn't.
Kirk is extraordinarily formidable and Alexi is extraordinarily weak. Polls prior to tonight mean absolutely nothing.
Actually, the more interesting question is what the Tea Partiers who targeted Kirk will do. They obviously weren't adequate to derail him, but will they stay away entirely, try to get some concessions from him, throw their weight behind a third party (any of which would help Giannoulis) or swallow hard and back the guy they labeled a RINO for - eek - agreeing with Dems on stuff like cap and trade?
BTW, if Brady wins the GOP primary, just right in the Dem candidate (whichever one) for the win in the governor's race. That guy makes the TP folks seem like moderates (Creationism in schools, no abortions unless a woman would die otherwise, guns for everyone - basically the least likely person to ever win an election statewide here).
i think the answer to that last sentence depends on whether or not the GOP is willing to become a working part of this nation's government or simply stand by the wayside and scream "socialist!" everytime the democrats try and do something.
i, for one, am glad the white house is meeting openly and VERY publically w/ the GOP so that they can no longer cower behind "no one listens to us..."
CMS - The Kirk who got elected to the 10th District and voted moderately in that position would be very formidable. The guy who told a GOP crowd that somehow he'd just flip flop on that the moment he changed jobs? Not so much.
Kirk's biggest issue is his own record, especially for the 20-25% of the GOP here that votes rural/crazy (ie the folks who went for Brady for governor). If he tacks right to please them, he loses the moderate Dems and Republicans in Chicago who elected him to the House.
Giannoulis' biggest problem is his family's bank and his ties to it. He's not who I (or the national Dems) wanted, but he's strong enough to win - depending on a lot of external factors that could develop over the next 8 months.
Gia-fraudster is going to get smoked in November, lefties. Why in the world would you morons nominate a guy who's directly tied to Rezko and Blago right before the Blago trials start this summer?
Dont any of you folks understand how the right wing will use that trial to tie Gia-fraudster/Blago/Resko into the national choice of Dems v. GOP?
It just provides more evidence of OBama's corruption, as well, as Obama is closely tied to Gia-fraudster in his own right since the late 1990s.
Now, all of Obama and Gia-fraudster's ties, and Gia-fraudsters ties (including loans made to and 500k bouncing checks by) to Rezko and financial incompetence in general, and all of the above's ties to Rezko, are going to be front and center in an important Senate Race.
Nice work, lefties.
Also, whats up with Obama continuing to bash Nevada and Vegas?
He just can’t help himself.
Obama’s DNA is configured to spread his toxic Marxist ideology which causes him to lose control of his turrets syndrome and blurt out his inner thoughts and exposes his insatiable need to control others.
Too bad for Democratic electoral prospects in Nevada.
Actually, I think a Brady win would be very welcome for Kirk since Brady would get a good turnout downstate and those voters will probably hold their nose and vote for the RINO. If Brady loses and Dillard wins, those voters stay home, imo.
@ck
agreed.
Brady loses, but he'll boost turnout for Kirk - the worst possible scenario for Gia-fraudster.
Kiss Obama's Senate Seat GOODBYE, lefties, you chose Gia-fraudster, someone who made loans which resulted in losses of hundreds of millions of dollars by Broadway Bank and is knee deep in the corruption of Rezko, who was a key customer of Gia-fraudster at Broadway bank.
Rezko bounced several 500k checks at Broadway in the mid-2000's, and Gia-fraudster covered it up for him and didnt default his companies, as a responsible bank manager would have done.
Pathetic cronyism and fraud, exactly what the US Senate does not need and the People of illinois will surely reject.
The monumental unforced error of nominating Gia-Fraudster will be seen as the next leg down in the great Democratic slide of 2009-2010.
Krik's poor numbers in southern Illinois is the key thing from tonight. He's going to really have to do well in and around Chicago to stand a chance. His cap and trade vote really lost him thousands of votes in coal country.
Looks like the Dems are going to add 1 more House seat in IL-10 when Kirk's successor lost to a standard Republican. That won't work in the 10th, even if Seals isn't a great candidate.
@Geoff
You're a party hack. What would it take for you to say the Dems have an advantage? I bet you still thought Rick Santorum or George Allen were going back to the Senate after the vote came in.
You need to realize everyone with a brain realizes you spew Republican talking points. You should get a job with Red State. You basically do that job anyway with your spam.
WOW that will really shake them up from Dem to Rep wow Washington is shaking in thier wigs.The jig is up,The game is fixed how stupid are Americans,I found out about the time I found out thier is no Santa Clause. A politiction is a politiction is a politiction.How many times do you have to see the same movie before you know how it will end.The next batch of politictions will also diapoint the average Americans.We have no choice America has no choice.I have been waiting watching reading for one leader that will help Americans do what is best for Americans.No such Animal.America thaught OBAMA wa the one,America thought Bush was the one,Nixon,tBush Sr.Go vote and wright a leter to Santa
Chicago liposuction
This is the best possible outcome for the GOP. The moderate Republican won huge - supposed Tea Party revolution did not materialized. Meanwhile, the Dems nominated a typical machine hack. Their streak of good planning and fortune in the Senate races is continuing. Winning back the Senate would require an inside straight. But MA made it seem possible. This would be a key pickup if they are to have a really big election.
The other thing you Dems have to remember is that the BIG issues for this year will be JOBS and DEBT (not "don't ask don't tell" or even health care). These issues united Republicans.
Gia is a disaster. He's the kind of pretty boy prep star that the Repubs usually field in Illinois. We needed AG Lisa Madigan in the Senate race. Kirk is a star, one of those politicians that just clicks with you when you meet him, whatever you feel about his politics. Dems are going to get stomped on this one.
Crooked banker Gianoulis won the Senate primary for the Dems!
He is the one BHO supported. He pulled out millions from his failing bank.
The other day they showed a stock foto of Gianoulis on MSNBC and who was it with? Tony Rezko! The two were smiling and shaking hands. Chuckle T did not comment or seem to notice. Mark Kirk is sure to be much more observant. All these filthy people around Obama!
Gianoulis is just another marauding banker, the kind of poster child of what is wrong with the country that Obama is so fond of using as a scapegoat. Why support him?
As Geoff pointed out above, why can’t Obama get away from these corrupt pols? Who owns him? Has the goods? The passport? Whatever!
This will be an easy pick up for the GOP.
petekent01 (on twitter)
Wow. This guy is the best you could do?
Watch this, and then tell me you'd vote for him over Kirk:
http://www.mixx.com/videos/10884284/youtube_alexi_giannoulias_he_d_make_tony_soprano_proud
"Gia-fraudster is going to get smoked in November... (drivel whine blather)"
How many times does everything you post need to get proven wrong before you stop using hackneyed bits like "gia-fraudster?" That goes for Petetwit and others too.
Either put up some evidence of fraud or stfu.
I don't really think you can spin IL as a teabag victory. Couple of points:
1) Teabaggers hate Mark Kirk. He's (maybe) still pro-choice, voted for cap/trade, and even though he's tried to cozy up to Palin recently he really doesn't have that right-wing of a voting record.
2) Despite the supposed enthusiasm gap nationally, Dem voters outnumbered GOP voters here significantly yesterday, 54%-46%.
3) Yes Bill Brady (if he wins) is very conservative. But he's not well-known in the Chicago area. If I were the Dem nominee (whoever wins), I'd start negative advertising right away in the city and let things cool down a little in the suburbs and downstate.
Also very disappointed that Raja Krishnamoorthi lost for Comptroller. Based on quick analysis, it looks like he won the Chicago area but lost downstate where he was probably (maybe) not on television.
Unfortunately I do think that Gianoullias is going to have image problems. I think we're already seeing with the campaign is going to be with the trolls here. No issues, just personal attacks (not backed up with any facts), Tony Rezko (irrelevant), and other crap.
/Voted Hoffman
Jacob said...
"Gia-fraudster is going to get smoked in November... (drivel whine blather)"
How many times does everything you post need to get proven wrong before you stop using hackneyed bits like "gia-fraudster?" That goes for Petetwit and others too.
Either put up some evidence of fraud or stfu.
February 3, 2010 11:17 AM
AHAHAHAHAHA
I predicted a 5-8 point scott brown win and i was attacked on here for it.
Scott brown won by 5 points.
Who's been proven wrong? the 538 hive mind. Nate posted about a Luntz focus group proving Coax won like an hour before the polls closed, thats how insane yall got.
Who's been proven right?
ME.
Deal with it.
Geoff,
You consistently claim that Alexi Giannoulias has engaged in fraud with absolutely zero justification or evidence.
Just yesterday, you wrote that Nate is secretly trying to undermine non-leftist Jews because he didn't mention a race with a Catholic candidate while analyzing the prospects of a moderate Jewish candidate in a different race.
And you call that being proven right?
So let me give you a hand with your Gia-fraudster drivel:
ev⋅i⋅dence
/ˈɛvɪdÉ™ns/ [ev-i-duhns] Show IPA noun, verb, -denced, -denc⋅ing.
–noun
1. that which tends to prove or disprove something; ground for belief; proof.
2. something that makes plain or clear; an indication or sign.
3. Law. data presented to a court or jury in proof of the facts in issue and which may include the testimony of witnesses, records, documents, or objects.
If you think Giannoulias has engaged in fraud, provide some EVIDENCE, or don't bitch about people pointing out how wrong you are.
The lopsided Democratic turnout yesterday makes it look a lot harder for Kirk to win. To win the election Kirk needs to hold onto all the Republican primary voters, AND pick up a lot of independents. It doesn't seem as if there was a huge Tea Party turnout, but looking at the results they most likely accounted for about 10% of the Republican voters. He needs to hold onto those voters while somehow appealing to moderate independent voters. I'm not sure how anyone can do that.
Giannoulias has the built in advantage of a solid Democratic GOTV infrastructure in Chicago, and will easily win if there is low voter turnout in November.
Geoff, the only fraud is you. You continuously lie about your affiliation, why is that? Those of us with reading comprehension already know, just interesting to point out yet again that you are a liar.
I want to see the tea bagging losers back a guy who voted in favor of cap and trade (and then flip-flopped) and has a 94% positive rating with NARAL.
Should be interesting..would love to watch tea bagger nation explode.
The Dems should be sure to get the word out that he was sucking up to Sarah Palin too...that won't play well in this state where she is widely regarded as a complete idiot.
Brady wants to install intelligent design in the schools systems here in IL. That also should be interesting in the general and won't be well received in the city or surrounding counties.
@shots
Aww cmon man, its not a waste of time as a site, it is an indelible record to review after events move in ways predicted by folks like you and me (see my predictions of 5-8 point scott brown win on here, and the 538 hive mind's condemnation of me for daring to suggest that, as epitomized by the Nate poasting an hour before Coax-Brown election day polls closed that said Frank Luntz focus group attendance means Coax will win).
its nice to be proven right, again and again, and to see the 538 hive mind fail to follow the illogical claims and lead of Daily Koz and Nate.
For instance, Illinois is not even on Nate's awesome Senate flip risk chart. Mass was at #13 or so all the way thru the FIVE POINT WIN by GOP Brown.
Now, re Illinois, Kirk leads by DOUBLE DIGITS and Illinois isn't even on the 538 Senate Flip List
PATHETIC FRAUD, similar to Gia-Fraudster's "career" in destroying Broadway Bank's solvency from 2003-2006 as VP of Loans and his further loss of 40% of the taxpayer funded college savings trust while Treasurer, not to mention his receipt of 100k in bank lobbyist and executive contributions, despite a pledge when running for Treasurer to take no such contributions. :)
Magellan Strategies for Mark Kirk (R)
2/2/10; 885 likely voters, 3.3% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Magellan memo)
Illinois
2010 Senate
Kirk 47%, Giannoulias 35%
Favorable / Unfavorable
Mark Kirk: 31 / 26
Alexi Giannoulias: 24 / 39
Barack Obama: 51 / 45
@john
What have i lied about again?
I didnt claim that a Luntz focus group booking issue (luntz couldnt find coax voters willing to participate) means that Coax will win, like nate did on election day.
Nate said that, so didnt nate actually lie, not me?
I said Brown would win by 5-8 points two weeks before the election, and i was called an idiot and a liar. And i was right.
So what's the problem my whiny leftist friend?
I dnot like the GOP either, i just really dont like the marxist Dems.
that makes me an independent centrist:)
Geoff said...
"Nate said that, so didnt nate actually lie, not me? "
No actually, he didn't. He said that particular metric boded well for Coakley. He also claimed that the weirdness surrounding the polls made it too difficult to determine who would win. As it happened, some of the polls were right, as were you. That's not being proven right again and again and again. That's making a prediction once that happened to be right while others hedged their bets. Lucky you.
"What have i lied about again?"
Wow. Short memory, eh? Don't worry, others remember. You made a false claim that Nate's post about a non-leftist Jew was an attempt to ignore non-leftist Jews because he had not discussed any gubernatorial races, including one where a minor non-starter candidate was Catholic.
Remember that?
You repeatedly claim that Giannoulias has engaged in fraud, but have never offered any evidence to support your position, all while ridiculing people for saying that there is no evidence of Giannoulias or even his former place of employment engaging in fraud.
"I dnot [sic] like the GOP either, i just really dont like the marxist Dems.
that makes me an independent centrist:)"
Well lucky for you there are no Marxist Dems in power. Most Marxists I have known vote for left-wing protest candidates or do not vote, and I have seen no evidence of widespread support for Democrats among Marxists.
Independent or not, believing that Democrats are Marxists does not make you a centrist, but it does make you a certified wingnut.
Ya gotta love that Obama bud Gianoulis looted his bank of millions while it was hemmoraging red ink during the financial crisis. Obama should be demonizing this crook not supporting him!
The Rezko - Gianoulis - Obama connection is very problematic, particularly since it leads back to Rahm Emmanuel and Blago.
Let's see if this mud can be splattered on the President's face. I sure hope so.
The dirty man will go down!
petekent01 (on twitter)
FYI reports are that dem turnoput was very low while GOP turnout was high in IL. The enthusiasm gap persists.
That gap alone may add an additional 50 seats to the expected 40 seat pick up by the GOP. I don't 100 seats changing hands is out of the question.
Did you know that Scott Brown won Barney Framk's district? Imagine if Mde DeFarge were voted out of the Assembly?
Vive La France!
petekent01 (on twitter)
PeteTwit (on kenter) said...
"The dirty man will go down!"
That would be nice but you just keep showing up. By the way a challenge to all 'Pubs who keep whining and screeching that Giannoulias is corrupt: Provide a scintilla of evidence that he did anything illegal. If not, then STFU.
"FYI reports are that dem turnoput was very low while GOP turnout was high in IL."
Wrong again. Turnout in the Democratic Primary was far higher than in the Republican Primary.
"FYI reports are that dem turnoput was very low while GOP turnout was high in IL. The enthusiasm gap persists."
This is false. Dems accounted for 54% of the vote on Tuesday. That's only down 2% from what it was in 2006 and 4% from the Democratic landslide year of 2002 in Illinois. That's *with* the supposedly uber-enthused Republican base.
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