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1.05.2010

Tea Partiers Bag Another One

There they go again.

From the Sunshine State came news today of the resignation, in the face of a concerted attack by Republican Party purists, of state GOP chairman and Charlie Crist ally Jim Greer. The departing chairman did not, however, exit before lashing out at those who he says took him down and, in his opinion, are destroying the Florida GOP.

"Since 2007, I have made a point to put the best interest of the Party before my own, even when criticisms were misdirected and invalid, and I will do so again now," wrote Greer in his resignation letter. "While some are more interested in tearing and shredding the fabric of the Republican Party to pieces, I will not be a participant in this destructive behavior. Therefore, I am putting the future of our Party first and shall step down as Chairman of the Republican Party of Florida effective February, 20, 2010." (Greer will be replaced by state senator John Thrasher of Jacksonville.)

The party-line response of Democrats to the news of Greer's resignation was issued by Democratic National Committee chair Tim Kaine: "Today’s right-wing led coup of Republican Party Chairman Jim Greer is a telling and unsettling sign about the extreme direction of the Republican Party--a direction that is narrowing the Party ideologically, demographically and, ultimately, electorally. We’re not even a full week into 2010 and the extreme right wing of the Republican Party has claimed another trophy for its wall--adding Greer to Senator Specter and Dede Scozzafava in its quest to purify the Republican Party, eliminate moderate voices and enact an extreme right-wing agenda."

A few tidbits and reactions:

*As noted in various reports, this was in many respects a proxy fight in the larger battle between Crist and conservative poster-boy Marco Rubio for the GOP senate nomination. That tea partiers backing the insurgent Rubio's nomination bid were able to claim such a scalp is pretty impressive, whatever one thinks of them. They are causing mainstream Republicans to take extreme caution so as not to incite them. Michael Steele, the Republican National Committee chair who was already having a rough day after he angered House Republicans by stating that they would not be able to take back the House this November, said Greer "understood that his presence was creating more division than necessary." Steele has to dance more gingerly right now than any Republican not running for president.

*Top party leaders were expressing their frustration about a pending Greer takedown just a few weeks ago, and with impassioned language of their own. Read this open letter from state GOP rules chairman Jim Stelling, who late last month called out a whole list of people by name who he said will not stop until the party "is in ruins." This fight could get very, very ugly.

*Democrats seem genuinely delighted. Hoping to limit their losses in 2010, one mitigating circumstance is the degree to which the GOP is distracted with intra-party fights at the expense of directing their fire at Democrats. However, Democrats may not want to start rooting for Rubio by virtue of his backers: If he wins the nomination, Rubi could be formidable in the general election and having a young Latino governor of this still-pivotal state could pose longer-term problems. Democrats should be rooting for continued infighting and yet for Crist to hang on--which should, in turn, lead to yet more infighting.

*Thrasher, who is close to former governor Jeb Bush, is not considered a Crist ally; he backed a Crist opponent during the 2006 GOP gubernatorial primary. Greer clearly was: Crist appointed him chair.

60 comments

Nathan said...

If he wins the nomination, Rubi could be formidable in the general election and having a young Latino governor of this still-pivotal state could pose longer-term problems.

I believe Rubio is running for Senate.

TFLive said...

Snort, the Fox News/GOP have lost control of their own movement. Hilarious. Right now Fox News is trying to fix that by ignoring the Teabaggers but I have faith that Glenn Beck's love of attention will override corporate orders and feed the beast.

Considering most of the electorate, especially the undecideds that play key roles in elections tend to be moderates, this is fantastic.

Even better, Teabaggers don't like moderate stances. They have the more extreme "your with us or against us" stance on most issues that the GOP fed for the last eight years. The result is to please the teabaggers means angering the moderates and vice versa.

Geoff said...

Dems are "genuinely delighted"???

Perhaps you should take a few rounds off the kind bud rotation there Tom.

The tea party folk are gaining steam and they are the heart of turnout this year, my friend. This only helps the GOP.

You also forget that Rubio is a Hispanic candidate and is 100% backed by the Greer haters.

So, how exactly does your koolaid-guzzling recitation of Kaine's comments as the ultimate truth make any sense?

Rubio winning over Crist in the GOP FLA establishment hurts the GOP demographically? Really?

What are you guys smoking?

Where did Nate did you up from?

Were you Van Jones' paralegal in LA?

Anita Dunn's research assistant assigned to Mao?

Keith Jennings' assistant in charge of reading materials for public school students?

No, i got it...you're the guy at MSNBC who mops up Keith Olbie's piss after he pees himself in each Special Comment...right?

Geoff said...

Good point Nathan -

Nathan said...

If he wins the nomination, Rubi could be formidable in the general election and having a young Latino governor of this still-pivotal state could pose longer-term problems.

I believe Rubio is running for Senate.


Tom, do you know the difference between Governor and Senator?

It might improve your blog posts.

Rubio and Crist are running for Senate. Repeat after me:

Senate.

That's the folks who go to Washington, DC

Now, the Governor stays in the state, is the state executive branch - quite different than a US Senator.

Seriously, where did Nate dig you up?

brian said...

Yep, a delightful day for the Dems. No more Dorgan or Ritter in CO and FL is about to get its most conservative senator in my lifetime.

David said...

"While some are more interested in tearing and shredding the fabric of the Republican Party to pieces, I will not be a participant in this destructive behavior. Therefore, I am putting the future of our Party first and shall step down as Chairman of the Republican Party of Florida effective February, 20, 2010."

...I thought that "party first" was an attack line. Why is this guy trying to make it seem noble?

Blue Jean said...

Which has lead me to create this website for my fellow Floridians...

http://registeryouropposition.blogspot.com

Take a look.

Democrats and Independents can register and vote in the Republican primary in Florida. We can stand with moderate Republicans and stop the take over of the their Party and the State of Florida by extremists.

constitutionfirst said...

There is a documentary film, just out--that records the journey (in the 70's-80's) of a small band of "homegrown terrorists" with their arsenal of weapons, their "Bible that calls for white supremacy," the small children brought up in this atmosphere, and how this became the seed of todays most radical fundamentalist church. The film is Silhouette City, Thy Kingdom Come - By Any Means Necessary. It is available at www.silhouettecity.com The first half is the grainy, black and white, part of the film dedicated to the beginning. Then about half way you see the "church" as we know it... controlling and crossing the lines that separate church and state.

And today they are huge mega churches, controlling millions of votes.
By the end you realize that they intend to have church rule of America. How is this possible? We now have two Supreme Court Justices who speak openly of wanting to disolve separation of church and state. You can read their comments at au.org by entering, separately "Scalia" and "Alito" in the search engine. Thomas and Roberts vote with them on much of this agenda. Our tax dollars now fund everything from their church schools to social events.

Worst of all, they saw new membership begin to decline so they now have a new tactic. Get young people in, target 18 to 30+ year olds, (services are separate for children) as these are big rock and roll, adrenaline pumping, sexy "religious experiences" that leave the attendees literally "addicted to Christ".

How do you know who these houses of propaganda are? That is tougher. Where most churches have a tab on their website that says "What we stand for" most of these don't. They are "non-denominational", but oddly all seem to believe in the rapture or end times. And they tell members how to vote. That's why many of these churches are losing all or part of their tax exempt status.

In the film, Huckabee and Gingrich both speak and it is clear that their goal is to make America a "religious state." It is not clear that we would still be a Democracy. W.Bush was aiming at this goal when he chose Supreme Court Justices. If the next Justice is a radical religious member of the right, we will be in real trouble. A vote for republicans in 2010 is a vote for these radicals. If they don't adopt the party line they don't receive money from the RNC to fund any of their campaign. The republican party may be very small when it comes to elected Congress members. But they need only pick up a few seats to stop the Democratic Party in it's tracks. If we look like the "do nothing" party for the next two years, what will that mean for the 2012 Presidential election?

If we elect another republican, they will not make the mistake W.Bush did. They will collapse the economy after they are in control. They agree to a litmus test that includes victory in Iran and Afghanistan and lowering the deficit. How in the world would this be possible? The draft and slave labor? They also plan to lower taxes and make government smaller. But smaller government to them is less legal oversight and no one to do the overseeing.

For the rest of us: No birth control and certainly no right to choose for women, gay people... no good outcome, and people of other faiths, even Christian, are not acceptable. As a Presbyterian USA member, for instance, you are pagan. This is our new republican party. It is the party of fear and intolerance. It is the party of Limbaugh, Beck, Boehner. It would take women back to the 5's and families of 10 or more children and submission to men as head of the household.
http://www.conservapedia.com/Conservative_Bible_Projec

What do we need to do? Quit letting them hide behind the name of a once proud American Party. Shine the light on their true agenda- radical anti-American transformation to a forced "nation under one God" and not one nation under God.

Bart DePalma said...

Tom:

Please. A Christ ally was replaced by a Bushie, not a grass roots Tea Party member.

You Dems really are terrified of the Tea Party movement.

You should be.

DCM in FL said...

Crist was a lock to win the open FL senate seat. Rubio - at best a toss-up especially after an ugly primary for the GOOPers.

Also, this infighting could cost the GOP the FL governorship.

Bill McCollum, GOOPer Attorney General [an old white man] will be forced to take sides [lose/lose prop]

that could clear the way for CFO Alex Sink to take FL for the DEMs

GO RUBIO !!! flog those teabaggers !!!

Meek or any DEM will look good + moderate compared to a divisive teabagger like Rubio after a nasty primary battle with the long knives out...

let 'em cut off their nose to spite their own face

filistro said...

Geoff lives deep underground and emerges at intervals, whenever clouds gather over the Democratic Party. Geoff is hairy and smelly and not all nimble. When frightened by the bright light of reason, Geoff scuttles for cover and does not reappear for days or weeks on end. Geoff's IQ is sligtly above that of a carrot.

What is Geoff? He is a GROUNDHOG.

Obi-Beeg said...

@Bart

As a Dem, I can assure you we are not terrified of Teabaggers. The Tea party is going to split elections keeping Dems in office that would normally lose due to the midterm cycle. Furthermore, the more extreme the party, the more marginalized the party, period. Wake up Republicans, stop pandering to the social conservatives, actually a marginalized GOP just makes more room for moderate Democrats.

Victory!

filistro said...

Yes, Bart, we are really, really terrified of the teabaggers. Aren't we, guys? Remember what we discussed at the meeting... how we don't have chance if the teabaggers keep purging and polishing their party until it is as pure as a holy flame and shines with an unwavering, diamond-hard brightness? How, in the face of resolute teabagger unity, we might just as well fold, we're beat, it's over?

;-) ;-) ;-)

Winking? Of course I'm not winking, I just have something in my eye. What d'you think I am... Sarah Palin?

DCM in FL said...

BdP

a 'CHRIST" ally indeed...

actually, the coup replaced a 'good' republican party member with a toadie of another sort...

way to put the seat in play !!!

and ol' Marco will have some serious 'splaining to do 'bout his past... especilly those iffy bidness dealings

Rubio will NOT play well in swingy central FL or the panhandle/southern GA

[note: Martinez managed to barely eke out his victory because his base was in central FL - NOT south FL]

the shifting FL demos do not play out well for a So FL/Miami GOP candidate - particularly one who made such a financial mess out of the state while he was in power in Tallahassee

Bart DePalma said...

Obi:

To date, the Tea Party movement seems to be more effective scaring Dems into quitting than splitting GOP primary votes.

Dorgan and Ritter in one day. Smells like victory indeed.

The_Sad_Democrat said...

Under most circumstances i would prefer the more extreme candidate be picked but I am too afraid Rubio could pull of a win in the general so for now i would like Christ to win the primary FL already has a democratic senator (Bill Nelson)

last post regarding senate numbers i ment

dems 55 or 54
indis 2
reps 43 or 44

Bart DePalma said...

The Dems are running Kendrick Meek to run for Senate? You are kidding me!

Meek inherited his mother's majority African American district, has done nothing of note apart from protesting in favor of racial preferences and has no statewide base.

If Rubio wins the GOP primary, Meeks will be a pushover.

brian said...

Kendrick Meek? How many black senators are there? Thats not by accident. Other than Obama, most burn bridges in the House with white voters so they are unpalatble in the Senate.

Geoff said...

filistro said...

Geoff lives deep underground and emerges at intervals, whenever clouds gather over the Democratic Party. Geoff is hairy and smelly and not all nimble. When frightened by the bright light of reason, Geoff scuttles for cover and does not reappear for days or weeks on end. Geoff's IQ is sligtly above that of a carrot.

What is Geoff? He is a GROUNDHOG.
January 5, 2010 11:32 PM


A classic case of projection by my smelly leftist friend Filistro here.

I'm just a bored atty who likes to see what the "smart lefties" have to say for themselves every once in a while.

Say, do you think Rubio is running for Governor too, like your esteemed blog post writer Tom here?

filistro said...

Geoff... sorry, I forgot to mention groundhogs are also shifty, mean, bad-tempered and terrible at money-management.

Hey Geoff.. remember when you bought all that McCain stock on Intrade? Your predictive skills probably made you enough to buy a new burrow!

Rahmsputin said...

Good news for Dems on the retirement front: Dodd is stepping down.

Geoff said...

Hey leftist douchebags -

Dodd retires - see WaPo.

:)

So how's that permanent majority treatin ya?

Conn. Sen. Chris Dodd expected to announce retirement, sources say
Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (Conn.), a leading Democrat whose political star fell along with the nation's economy, is expected to announce Wednesday that he has decided against running for reelection this November, according to sources briefed on the decision. Dodd, in his fifth term, chairs the Senate Banking Committee. His retirement would be the second such announcement by a Senate Democrat in 24 hours; North Dakota's Byron Dorgan said Tuesday that he would not run this fall.

brian said...

Ba-Bye, Dorgan, Ritter, Dodd. Is Reid next? Spend some quality time with family.

Rahmsputin said...

@Geoff

Dodd's retirement means that Democrats will almost certainly hold the seat.

DCM in FL said...

The new FL GOOPer party leader [ThraSHER] is an insider POL who just returned to the capital as a senator in a special election this fall. He was also a former speaker of the house [ala Rubio].

but Thrasher's biggest 'claim to fame' is that he acted as a biz lobbyist in Tallahassee & managed to wrack up 2 ethics violations !!!

Such a good Party Leader !!! His firsat was while he was in the FL House & the second just when he left office - but was still under a two-year lobbying prohibition.

NOTE: FL GOOPer Party leader Thrasher was reprimanded by the House for the first offense and fined for the second.

WE HAVE A BEST PERSON OF THE DAY WINNER !!!

Now Thrasher represents a safe GOOPer senate district that runs south from JAX down the coast to near mine in Volusia county thanks to GOOPer gerrymandering run amuck in 2000...

Geoff said...

Rahmsputin said...

@Geoff

Dodd's retirement means that Democrats will almost certainly hold the seat.
January 6, 2010 12:19 AM

Oh, and that is based on what exactly?

Dodd's opponents are strongly established now, and whoever steps in has to drink of Obamacare poison

brian said...

Sucks for GOP that Dodd is retiring. Give him credit, I never thought his ego would let him quit. Polls must've been really bad. At least we replace a senior pork meister with a powerless junior senator.

Mike in Maryland said...

filistro said...
What is Geoff? He is a GROUNDHOG.

Filistro? Are you sure of that? I thought groundhogs only appeared on February 2. Geoff has infested this site too many times on days other than Febraury 2.

Maybe he/she/it is something else, such as a Norwegian RAT? Or just a TEABAGGER who has put on the costume of a groundhog?

No matter what, Geoff is a member of the (to themselves, only) 'proud' TROLL Brigade that inhabits and infests 538.com.

Mike in Maryland

Rahmsputin said...

@Geoff

PPP says a poll they're releasing tomorrow shows highly popular CT Attorney General and likely Dodd replacement Sidney Blumenthal comfortably squashing both Simmons and McMahon. The night's a wash for Senate Republicans.

DCM in FL said...

Dodd retiring before a primary battle in the spring is a good thing for the DEMs.

CT State Attorney General Richard Blumenthal will win that open seat in a walk.

Meanwhile at least 6 GOOPer sitting senators are 'gracefully' retiring next year [and maybe more depending on Ensign & Vitter & perhaps a few others yet to be determined]

more open GOP seats up for grabs than open DEMs in 2010, although some of those will probably not be competitive

wv -iratene [one mad as hell vitamin supplement]

DCM in FL said...

typically GEOFF the troll references WaPo re: Dodd retirement BUT he FAILS to bother to read the article by Chris Cillizza...

otherwise he would know that Dodd retirng opens the door for the popular DEM AG to win the seat...

"State Attorney General Richard Blumenthal is widely expected to step into the void filled by Dodd and, at least at first blush, should drastically increase Democrats' chances of holding the seat.

Blumenthal, who has served as state Attorney General since 1990, is the most popular politician in the state and has long coveted a Senate seat; he had already signaled that he would run for the Democratic nomination against Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) in 2012."


GEOFF = joke

Rahmsputin said...

Correction from above:

Richard Blumenthal

God help us if Sidney Blumenthal were running for that seat...

DCM in FL said...

RAHM

all Sidneys should be avoided for public office - including John 'Sidney' McCain

Dodd + Dorgan retiring is GREAT NEWS FOR JOHN MCCAIN !!!

Chris said...

Knowing the razor edge that Florida balances on, there's no way that a tea-bagger (Rubio) is going to pull off a victory in the general election. I must admit, thought, that I voted for Crist for governor looking to 2008, knowing that the right-wing base of the party would not be excited by Crist and keep the future turnout down. This is the obvious backlash. They believe that if they can fire up the base the way that Jeb did, they'll be able to win again. The problem with their theory (if they are actually thinking this through, which is up for debate) Rubio will scare the swing voters, who the desperately need to win. They forgot that. It think it is arrogance based on their string of victories in the Lost Decade.

As for being afraid of the tea-baggers...I laugh at that (and them). They are the fringe. They are loud mouthed desperate people who don't actually think. They are the best thing to happen to the Democrats since...well, maybe ever. You can't win without moderates. Moderates don't vote for people demanding birth certificates and screaming 'communist' every other word. As Tony the Tiger said, "they're great!"

Cugel said...

It's pretty obvious that ass-hat trolls like Geoff have never lived in CT, or they would know that Dodd dropping out is the best news Democrats have had in a while!

Dodd was dead-meat in all the polls, mired in the Wall Street scandal in ways that would be impossible to defend.

Virtually any state Democrat and ESPECIALLY Blumenthal will be instant favorites now.

Probably the only Republican who could win this seat against an UN-tainted Democrat is Gov. Rell -- and she ain't running!

For information for the trolls. CT just eliminated the last sitting CT Republican Congressman -- even the 4th district (Stamford to elite Greenwich) is now held by DEM Jim Shays.

For further TROLL information New England is solidly blue outside ME's Sue Collins and Olympia Snowe, the nation's most moderate Republicans.

Chalk up 1 seat for Dems!

Nathan said...

Dodd + Dorgan retiring is GREAT NEWS FOR JOHN MCCAIN !!!

Sorry if I'm being dense, but I don't understand this at all, whether meant to be sarcastic or serious.

brian said...

You know what moderates hate even more....massive federal programs, massive new taxes, massive new regulations, rewarding failure, and appeasing enemies. So, we'll see which party's base scares them more in 2010.

Nathan said...

For further TROLL information New England is solidly blue outside ME's Sue Collins and Olympia Snowe, the nation's most moderate Republicans.

And John Sununu, granted he's retiring. The point stands, of course. Conservative Republicans are basically DOA in New England.

DCM in FL said...

NATHAN

realize that you are a virtual newbie on 538...

BUT try a google search or check the 538 archives or something next time before you leave the 'dense' door so far ajar... [hard to resist an easy setup line]

"THIS IS GREAT NEWS FOR JOHN McCAIN" [or HRC or whomever] was/is an ironical catch phrase that was extremely popular on the internets [including blogs like 538] during the 2008 electoral cycle...

sorta like RR polls being unbiased - it is an insider 'joke'

enjoy !!!

Nathan said...

Brian wrote,

You know what moderates hate even more....massive federal programs...

The rest of your list I'll buy, but not this. "Moderates" is a malleable term, but two massive federal programs that swing-voters usually like are Medicare and Social Security.

Nathan said...

Ok, DCM, thanks for the much-needed cluestick pummeling. :)

DCM in FL said...

you are welcome NATHAN, ever so much

BTW - looking forward to your first opportunity to drop that reference into a future post here on 538 at an appropriate time...

any bad news for the GOP gives you an opening

more sex scandal info on Sen Ensign - NV [R] ???

why that is GREAT NEWS !!! FOR JOHN MCCAIN !!!

Sarah Palin + Levi's Johnson ???

more GREAT NEWS FOR JOHN McCAIN !!!

Dick Cheney speaks smack on BHO ???

always GREAT NEWS - FOR JOHN MCCAIN !!!

or maybe not so much....

anyway, the regulars on this site will get it - so no worries

sorta like learning how to easily access the comment thread after the first 200 comments are posted [usualy just on HCR or gay rights issues these days]

DCM in FL said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Nathan said...

Clever enough. I rather like McCain, though, and really wish the GOP had nominated him in 2000.

But who knows, a bout of mirth could come over me...

DCM in FL said...

Mavericks = mirth

but OTOH, the John McCain of 2000 who scolded the rigid evangelicals would not recognize or respect the tired ol' hardline Johnny Mac of 2008...

and he has intentionally gone even more to the hard right this year to try to damage BHO & win re-election + avoid a nasty primary in AZ

sad & pathetic - I also respected the guy back in the day [2000 vs Bush]

but agreeing to select Palin doomed McCain to ignomy & resigned his legacy to the dustbin of historic relics & worn out desperate after-thoughts imho

Nathan said...

I don't think his legacy rests with political achievement. I'm sure it doesn't rest with political alignment. Given the events of his entire life, McCain would have to do a lot more than disagree with me on issues to lose my respect.

Mark said...

Sen. Dorgan retiring is unequivocally bad news for the Democratic Party. The decisions of Gov. Ritter and Sen. Dodd to likewise retire are probably good news.

Democrats lose the news cycle - again - but probably wind up much better positioned to hold the Colorado governor's mansion and that Connecticut Senate seat (look for Blumenthal to annihilate Rep. Simmons; I expect Lamont will prefer to hold back in favor of a rematch against politically DOA Sen. Lieberman) than they were just 12 hours ago.

brian said...

And another Dem opts out:

Michigan Dem Lt. Gov decides not to run for Gov. He was the favorite to win the Dem primary, but was lagging in the general election polls. Decided it wasn't worth it. Mich is looking Repub for Gov.

CO-Liberal said...

Nathan,
Twenty years from now, the only thing people will remember about John McCain is his VP selection in 08. He will be known for creating the FrakenPalin.

Pretty sad legacy for a war hero and a lifetime of service.

PeteKent said...

As many of you would aver I am slow on the update and just heard now about the Dodd retirement.

Indeed: THIS IS GREAT NEWS FOR JOHN MCCAIN!

Dodd was one of the biggest power brokers in the Senate, one of the Dems most public faces. To have him cut and run is evidence that the Dems are going to be hung with the Mortgage Foreclosure Crisis that was engineered by him and his fellow New Englander Barney Frank (the acerbic Gay Congressman with the drug dealer boyfriend).

What the LIBS should all fear about the Tea Party Movement is that it is rooted almost entirely in economic issues and resistance to massive federal programs, massive new taxes, massive new regulations, opposition to Bailouts and the lining of the pockets of Democrat allied financial institutions like Goldman Sachs. These are the issues that resonate with middle America and Independents.

The Dems are dropping like flies. Their base is evaporating (the elderly and the beer bong sucking youth are lost to them). The extreme left wing of the Party is a numerical irrelevancy.

The GOP will use Dodd and Frank to bash the opposition with responsibility for the financial crisis. Dodd's resignation/retirement is proof positive of Democrat culpability in causing the housing crisis which lead to last summer's financial collapse.

Ugly. It will be very ugly for the Dems next November.

As an aside MSNBC is now picking up on Obama's deceit regarding openness and transparency. His closed door negotiations with Pelosi and Reid on the HCR Bill will assure a chilly reception by the voting public.

Last night Chris Matthews lead his show by cataloging how slow to react to events Obama is remarking that Obama "likes to narrate events, not control them" he was speaking of a whole host of issues from his reaction to the Fort Hood Shooting to the healthcare negotiations to the Underwear Bomber.

Also from yesterday: China rejects sanctions against Iran. Obama's deadline has passed and the young people there are fomenting revolution but our President is weak and unwilling to take advantage of it. What is wrong with this guy? Maybe he is a Mullah sympathizer? And why can't Obama get the world to go a long with him. And while we are at it, I thought his very election ended the War on Terror? WTF???

Obama sux at being President. He could not lead us out of a paper bag.

petekent01 (on twitter)

shrinkers said...

@Mark
Sen. Dorgan retiring is unequivocally bad news for the Democratic Party. The decisions of Gov. Ritter and Sen. Dodd to likewise retire are probably good news.

You're right on all counts here. And ND will be a wash against FL, where the Dems will pick up a Senate seat thanks to the teabaggers killing Crist's chances.

So, other than these three open Senate races, the Dems have two more (Illinois and Delaware, which are entirely safe), The Republicans have five more at least -- Ohio, Missouri, New Hampshire, Kansas and Kentucky, and while some of these are probably safe, the two or three might be competitive. SD, LA, and AK are also vulnerable for the Republicans, as is CO for the Dems.

In all, I see maybe 2 currently Dem Senate seats as possible-to-probable flips, and as many as 5 Republican seats. So the possibility of the Dems actually adding seats in the Senate is very real, maybe as many as 3, but probably one 1 or 2, as I've been saying for a while. It could go up to as many as 4 if the Dems hold CO and if the teabaggers screw things up enough for the Republicans in AK and KY. It's going to be a fun year!

Vern said...

So let me get this straight, for this polling based site, 538, we have the following data

"Tea Party"
41-23 net positive

Democrat Party
35-45 net negative

Republican Party
28-43 net negative

But the 538 analyst concludes that becoming MORE associated with the +18 net positive Tea Party is a bad strategy for a party with a -15 point net negative?!

Come on, 538 is better than this.

Daniel said...

I have to admit, I sort of like the Tea Party movement. Mostly because of their vicious anti-intellectualism, and their consequent ignorance. Let's face it: for most of history, nerdy, intellectual people were in charge. Then came George W. Bush. The "jocks" or good ol' boys or whatever you want to call them got a chance to run the country. And they did. Into the ground. So America elected the nerdiest President since Woodrow Wilson. The Obama administration is loaded to the gills with nerds and thinkers and this is just far, far more than the anti-intellectuals can take. But a movement that consists of positions it's against isn't going to get very far. You can pretty much guarantee that the GOP candidates who are courting the Tea Party will be forced to say something crazy to keep their interest. Then the moderates who were ready to vote for McCain/Palin until some loon screamed "Kill him!" at a Palin rally will have second thoughts and the flip-flopping bleeding heart liberal will end up winning the election anyway. Or the Tea Party will force the GOP to pick a candidate that doesn't know that Medicare is a federal program, or thinks that America is not only a Christian nation, but doesn't realize that Catholics are Christians too, or is a closet racist that just can't keep his racist comments to himself. With the GOP's record on sex scandals, it'd be really impressive to have a violently anti-gay candidate who is not himself a homosexual or a cross-dresser.
So, let the Tea Party go hog wild. They'll do about as much good for the Republicans as the hippies did for Democrats.

Jay said...

The amusing thing is that for all the teabaggers condemnation of government, a large number are on Medicare while remaining blissfully ignorant of its government credentials. They're essentially a bunch of ignorant, racist, overweight, poorly schooled half-wits who are being exploited by the likes of Sarah Palin. Its easy for Palin to identify with these kooks because she's not dealing with governing during a recession, and so she can rail and rant with them at will.

David said...

Vern said:
"Democrat Party
35-45 net negative"


Hey Vern, you were wrong citing that poll. I clicked on the link and it said the following:

"For the first time in more than two years, the Democratic Party also now holds a net-negative fav/unfav, at 35-45 percent."

See, it's the Democratic party, not the Democrat party.

If you're going to cite something, you should do it correctly. Perhaps if you cut-and-paste next time instead of retyping you won't make such errors.

slasher14 said...

The Right persists in arguing that the teabaggers are something new when, in fact, they're simply a section of the loyal Republican base which has decided to refuse to support Republican candidates who don't agree with them. There's nothing wrong with that. If there were a viable hard left group competing for power inside the Democratic Party (in spite of what the teabaggers would have you believe, there isn't), it would surely be doing the exact same thing, as it tried to do in CT in 2006 to Lieberman.

The problem with a group on the fringe trying to capture the center is that it doesn't bring anything NEW to the dance. Almost every one of the FL teabaggers voted against Obama in 2008. Where will the new votes needed to form a majority come from now?

The stock answer is that independents will be moved to the right by the same issues (health care, bailouts, etc., etc) that enrage the teabaggers. and will vote for Republican candidates. That formula assumes that the Republicans run candidates that independents can support. That's how the Republicans won the governorship of Virginia -- they ran a candidate who had as little to do with the teabaggers as possible, and independents saw him as someone they could trust. Rubio doesn't fit that description.

Independents aren't independent because they're fickle or afraid of commitment. They are what they are because they feel themselves to be in the center between the hard right and the hard left, and don't want to associate themselves with a party ON EITHER SIDE which they feel is too radical for them.

When the teabaggers demand ideological purity of all Republican candidates and succeed in enforcing that demand in primaries, they send a clear message to independents that a vote for those Republicans is for people who are NOT ideologically close to them. That is the story, in a nutshell, of what happened in NY-23 (it would also have helped if the teabaggers had run somebody who actually lived in the district, but that's another matter).

The teabaggers aren't stupid. The belief that what independent voters really, really want is a hard right candidate, which is what they will tell you, is obviously not true and they know it.

What the strategy REALLY is, in fact, is a sort of neo-Rovian move, whereby the hard right divides the electorate as much as possible in the hope that disatisfaction with the Democrats will enable them to sneak past the voters candidates for whom they would NEVER vote under any other circumstances. THAT is what the teabaggers hope for in 2010 and 2012 -- paint the Democrats as horrible people out to (insert rant here) and sneak into office candidates who will vote the hard right line.

This works in only two kinds of situations: 1) if you run a candidate who can successfully portray him/herself as a moderate, as was done in VA last year; or 2) if the electorate really, truly is ready to elect hard right candidates so you don't have to pretend you're not one of them.

If the independents and moderates of FL are ready to vote for a hard right candidate in 2010 then yes, Rubio can win the primary. But if the same voters who effectively put the crown on John McCain's head in 2008 (and NOT Huckabee or Romney) look at Rubio and see somebody that really doesn't speak for them as much as Crist does, Rubio is toast. Because to win, the hard right needs to change the electoral mix from the won that chose McCain in the 2008 primary, and the teabaggers cannot be part of that change -- they were ALREADY on the hard right and don't bring in any new voters. Rubio knows this, and if he doesn't pull ahead of Crist by a decisive margin soon, he's going to have to change a strategy which relies exclusively on the hard right.

If you find Rubio starting to distance himself from the teabaggers, it will mean that he knows they aren't bringing in enough new voters to put him past Crist, and the process of the unraveling of the movement has begun.

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