Quantcast FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: 9/13/09 - 9/20/09

9.18.2009

Getting a Bigger House

What with the mortgage and foreclosure crisis, now seems about the worst time to think about getting a bigger house--unless, of course, we're talking about the House of Representatives. There's a movement afoot to expand the number of members of Congress, motivated by a desire to approach greater representational equity.

This takes a bit of explaining, but first, a pop quiz: How many amendments are there in the Bill of Rights? The reflexive answer is "10." But the more accurate answer is arguably "11," and partial credit should also be given for 12.

It's a trick question, sort of, or at least a complicated one. The Founders (particularly Anti-Federalists) were promised something in Philadelphia in terms of civil liberties and rights as venerated by many colonial constitutions, and the 1st Congress promptly passed 12 proposed amendments. The first 10 of these were ratified rather quickly and are commonly known today as the Bill of Rights. (Although it should be said that, because most of them animate the ideal of negative liberty--that is, restrictions placed upon the government to prevent it from infringing or restricting our core freedoms, which is why the words "no" or "not" appear so frequently in Amendment I thru X--the 10 ought better be labeled a "Bill of Liberties.")

The other two amendments remained proposed but never ratified--until 1992, when, amazingly enough, a very entrepreneurial young legislative aide from Texas named Gregory Watson completed a decade-long effort to get one of the two amendments ratified. The amendment of interest to him was the one that would require an intervening congressional election between votes for any congressional compensation increase. (Some state governments have this provision already on their books or in their constitutions.) Realizing several states had already ratified it in the late 18th century, and another pack did so in the late 19th, in the early 1980s Watson set about pestering enough of the remaining states that had not ratified it to reach 38--the three-quarters threshold. It took Watson and his allies over a decade, but more than 200 years after its proposal the 27th Amendment, a step-cousin of sorts to the original so-called Bill of Rights, was ratified.

Hence, you might say the answer is 11.

Which leaves one final proposed-but-not-yet-ratified amendment among those original 12. That proposal--known as either the "Congressional Apportionment Amendment" or "Article the First," because it was the first one proposed--would have benchmarked House representation to 30,000 citizens per House district. Had that amendment been ratified then, or at some subsequent moment, and left in effect until today, in a country presently with 300 million people we would thus be talking about the first Congress following the 2010 Census having 10,000 House members. To just 100 senators. Yikes! Almost every state would have more members in its House delegation than either its state senate or state assembly house. (Best I can tell, only California and Texas presently have U.S. House delegations bigger than--and thus House constituencies smaller than--their respective state senates, which is amazing enough. I mean, a state senator with more constituents than a congresswoman? Weird, eh?)

Anyway, the current U.S. House is just 435 members, of course, as it has been, more or less, for nearly a century. The average district size at the start of this decade was about 670,000 persons, and that should increase with next year's Census to about 700,00, which of course is roughly the same size or somewhat bigger than the populations of the seven states so small they only qualify for the single, at-large member the Constitution mandates in Article I. To rectify some of the disparities caused by this, advocates want to expand the total number of House seats. (If this doesn't make intuitive sense, consider the situation in what might be called the limits--51 House members, where 49 states would get 1 and California would get the extra to make 2; or, say, 30 million seats, where every 10 of us would have a representative and there would be essentially perfectly proportional representation for each of the 50 states. (I didn't go through this little mental exercise to be cute; I'm going to return to it in just a minute.)

In any case, here is political reporter Peter Baker explaining the situation in the New York Times yesterday:
Redrawing the lines will address some of the population shifts over the last decade, but much of the disparity will remain, because it is built into the system. In theory, every member of the House represents roughly the same number of people. But because each state gets at least one seat, no matter how small its population, and because the overall size of the House has not changed in a century, the number of people represented by a single congressman can vary widely.

The most populous district in America right now, according to the latest Census data, is Nevada’s 3rd District, where 960,000 people are represented in the House by just one member. All of Montana’s 958,000 people likewise have just one vote in the House. By contrast, 523,000 in Wyoming get the same voting power, as do the 527,000 in one of Rhode Island’s two districts and the 531,000 in the other.

That 400,000-person disparity between top and bottom has generated a federal court challenge that is set to be filed Thursday in Mississippi, charging that the system effectively disenfranchises people in certain states. The lawsuit asks the courts to order the House to fix the problem by increasing its size from 435 seats to at least 932, or perhaps as many as 1,761. That way, the plaintiffs argue, every state can have districts that are close to parity.

“When you look at the data, those are pretty wide disparities,” said Scott Scharpen, a former health care financial consultant from California who has organized the court challenge. “As an American looking at it objectively, how can we continue with a system where certain voters’ voting power is substantially smaller than others’?”

Now, my initial reaction is, fine, this would certainly remedy, partially if not perfectly, the disparities in representation. And I realize this could be done without a constitutional amendment, unlike the abolition of the Senate, which many have called for over the years because its representational disparities are far greater.

But I can't help myself. I say: Right idea, wrong chamber.

Indeed, the better idea would be to push for a constitutional amendment not to eliminate the Senate, or even to make it exactly like the House, but to at least move it closer toward more equipopulous representation. For example, if we added another 50 senate seats, to be redistributed based on population above and beyond the guaranteed two each state already receives, that would bring it in somewhat closer proportion. We could even set an upper limit so that no state has, say, more than five as well as none having fewer than two. That would actually go some distance, however partial, toward remedying the grotesque disparities of the Senate--and yet still give smaller states a disproportionate share of the seats relative to their population shares, just not as disproportionate.

Of course, I realize that few U.S. senators, and probably no small-state senators, will want to propose such an amendment. (Likewise for state legislators from those states who would have to ratify it, barring the use of state conventions.) Such a proposal would thus likely require a constitutional convention.

That raises an idea: If the town hall protesters want to redirect their energies elsewhere, maybe they can agitate for such an amendment. Many of them claim to believe in having everyone heard, and as it is now some people--smaller and more rural and whiter citizens, it should be said--are heard disproportionately in the halls of Congress, which in part explains why we can't get health care reform in the damn first place.

OOPS!: Sorry, a few typos in there as I was rushing to make a meeting. The other 10 members of the House's 435 have been restored!

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Is Public Opinion on Health Care Locked In?

A prominent pollster wrote me yesterday with the sentiment that "the battle for public opinion [on health care] is over", adding that he thought that the Democrats had come up short. We'll consider that statement in a moment -- but first, let's take a look at where the health care numbers stand after Barack Obama's speech last week. Did the President, in fact, receive a boost in support?



The short answer is probably yes, for now, although not a terribly large one, and not without some ambiguity. Here, we've looked at all polls that were conducted after the speech, and compare them against the most recent poll that each pollster had conducted before the speech. We see an average increase of about 2-3 points for the Democrats' health care plan itself, and more like 4-5 points for Obama's handling of health care. (We also list polls for that have been conducted since the President's speech but for which no recent comparison is available -- like the poll that the terrific Ann Selzer is now conducting for Bloomberg -- but place them "below the line" so that a more apples-to-applies comparison is available.)

Caveats abound. Obama's speech was not the only thing impacting public opinion on health care over this period, and both the "before" and "after" polls were conducted at slightly different intervals. Rasmussen, for instance, found a fairly sharp bounce -- 7 or 8 points -- in support for the President's plan which then suddenly dissipated, to the point where they now have the proposal being slightly less popular than it had been originally. The degree of movement was unusual for Rasmussen polls, which are generally quite stable. I'm not convinced, I guess, that the contours of public sentiment on health care are really quite that steep -- bounces often fade, but their half-life is usually measured in weeks, not days. I think there's some random noise in their data, in other words. We'll know more, naturally, after more pollsters weigh in on health care over the next couple of weeks. See Charles Franklin for more detail on the current trendlines.

For now, though, the battle for public opinion on health care appears to have been more fought to a draw than lost. The average poll on the health care plan since the President's speech shows 45.7 percent in favor, and 47.4 percent opposed. The average poll on Obama's handling of health care shows 47.5 percent in favor, and 46.3 percent opposed. That's about as close to a tie as it gets. And that may be a psychologically important distinction for many members of Congress. There's certainly not any tailwind of public support behind health care reform -- that was squandered many months ago. But it's not clear that they're running into a headwind either -- particularly since many of these polls also revealed shifts in the strength of health care sentiments, with the number of voters strongly opposed decreasing, and the number strongly in favor increasing, although the former almost certainly remains greater than the latter.

I agree with the pollster, however, that the numbers are liable to be fairly stubborn from this point forward. Both sides have really fired all their bullets here. Obama gave his big speech. The Democrats have also probably outmaneuvered the Republicans on maintaining the appearance of bipartisanship -- although to what ultimate end, I don't know. On the other hand, the public remains confused and skeptical over the details of health care reform, in ways that it is probably too late to reverse. The Republicans have played the socialism card, the death panels card, the deficits card, and pretty much everything else in their arsenal. The town halls, mercifully for Democrats, are over. Perhaps Republicans can come up with one or two more effective attack lines. Perhaps Obama can counter back with some high-exposure television appearances (like he'll be doing this Sunday) and perhaps -- perhaps -- a fairly low-key address from the Oval Office in a few weeks, when the health care bills are on the verge of being voted on by the Congress. I do think the Democrats have learned something (learned it the hard way and at great cost) about how not to market health care reform.

But I don't see the numbers shifting much. They are what they are -- and the ball is in Congress's court. And the Democrats there might be wise to think more about how popular the health care plan might be after it passes -- in 2010, 2012, 2016, 2020 -- than where it stands right now. How they resolve their remaining differences over health care -- in particular, the level of subsidies provided to middle-income families -- could matter a great deal there.

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9.17.2009

Americans View News Media as Biased

Aleks Jakulin pointed me to this report:

The public’s assessment of the accuracy of news stories is now at its lowest level in more than two decades of Pew Research surveys, and Americans’ views of media bias and independence now match previous lows. . . . Republicans continue to be highly critical of the news media in nearly all respects. However, much of the growth in negative attitudes toward the news media over the last two years is driven by increasingly unfavorable evaluations by Democrats. . . . The partisan gaps in several of these opinions, which had widened considerably over the past decade, have narrowed.


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And some specifics:

Partisan differences in views of Fox News have increased substantially since 2007. Today, a large majority of Republicans view Fox News positively (72%), compared with just 43% of Democrats. In 2007, 73% of Republicans and 61% of Democrats viewed Fox News favorably. [emphasis added]


Also:

Though the public is increasingly critical of news media organizations, most people think it would be an important loss if major news sources shut down. . . . Although fewer young people cite television and newspapers as their main news source than do those 60 and older, young people are actually more likely to say it would be an important loss if national news sources such as network TV evening news (83% 18-29 year olds vs. 74% 60 and older), cable news (82% vs. 70%) and large national newspapers (78% vs. 60%) shut down. And while more Republicans than Democrats express critical views of the performance of news organizations, Republicans are about as likely as Democrats to say the loss of major news outlets would be important. The only exception is network evening news; even in this case, 69% of Republicans say the shutdown of network evening news would be an important loss, compared with 85% of Democrats.


We'll have to get these data and do some further analyses. But the basic numbers are interesting and, I think, important.

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Democrats 1, Red Sox 0

A new Suffolk poll in Massachusetts finds that a majority of Bay State residents -- 55 percent -- indeed think that state's law should be changed to allow Deval Patrick to appoint an interim replacement for the late Ted Kennedy.

Far more shocking, though, is the following:
Q8. Is your opinion of Curt Schilling generally favorable or generally
unfavorable?
N= 500 100%
Never heard .................................... 1 58 12%
Favorable ...................................... 2 143 29%
Unfavorable .................................... 3 195 39%
Heard of/Undecided ............................. 4 104 21%
That's right. A plurality of Massachusetts registered voters have an unfavorable opinion of Curt Schilling, the former Boston Red Sox pitcher and World Series hero who has been a somewhat outspoken -- although moderate -- Republican, and who at one point was contemplating a run for Kennedy's seat.

This is one state, evidently, where blue blood runs thicker than red. If Schilling wants to become a senator, he'd have a far better chance in New Hampsire, where he now makes his residence.

Red Sox owner John Henry, incidentally, is one of the relatively few owners of a major sports franchise who is an outspoken Democrat (remember, the demographic here is rich older white dude).

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9.16.2009

IBD/TIPP Doctors Poll Is Not Trustworthy

I'm flying 35,000 feet somewhere over Eastern Ohio now -- isn't technology wonderful? -- so I can only comment on this briefly, but the Investors' Business Daily poll purporting to show widespread opposition to health care reform among doctors is simply not credible. There are five reasons why:

1. The survey was conducted by mail, which is unusual. The only other mail-based poll that I'm aware of is that conducted by the Columbus Dispatch, which was associated with an average error of about 7 percentage points -- the highest of any pollster that we tested.

2. At least one of the questions is blatantly biased: "Do you believe the government can cover 47 million more people and it will cost less money and th quality of care will be better?". Holy run-on-sentence, Batman? A pollster who asks a question like this one is not intending to be objective.

3. As we learned during the Presidntial campaign -- when, among other things, they had John McCain winning the youth vote 74-22 -- the IBD/TIPP polling operation has literally no idea what they're doing. I mean, literally none. For example, I don't trust IBD/TIPP to have competently selected anything resembling a random panel, which is harder to do than you'd think.

4. They say, somewhat ambiguously: "Responses are still coming in." This is also highly unorthodox. Professional pollsters generally do not report results before the survey period is compete.

5. There is virtually no disclosure about methodology. For example, IBD doesn't bother to define the term "practicing physician", which could mean almost anything. Nor do they explain how their randomization procedure worked, provide the entire question battery, or anything like that.

My advice would be to completely ignore this poll. There are pollsters out there that have an agenda but are highly competent, and there are pollsters that are nonpartisan but not particularly skilled. Rarely, however, do you find the whole package: that special pollster which is both biased and inept. IBD/TIPP is one of the few exceptions.

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Fraud Changing the Tune in Afghanistan

Incumbent President Hamid Karzai is on track for a slim but solid victory in Afghanistan's 2009 election if the provisional numbers published by the country's Independent Electoral Commission are to be trusted. With just under 93 percent of polling stations accounted for, Karzai is sitting pretty with 54.3 percent of the vote, well above the majority margin he needs to avoid a run-off. In addition, the remaining 7.2 percent of polling stations largely sit within Karzai strongholds, such as Kandahar province ( Karzai pulling over 85 percent of the vote currently) and Khost provinces (83.4 percent to Karzai currently).

However, allegations of severe fraud have dogged the process, delaying the finalization of the results and calling into question the basic legitimacy of the election. With the political architecture of Afghanistan already fragmented, a new Karzai government could be fatally weakened if a significant portion of the allegations remain are not resolved.

Claims of shakedown and deceit are not something new in Afghani elections. The 2004 Presidential and 2005 parliamentary elections were also accused of allowing similar ballot stuffing, intimidation by political forces and the Taliban, and other problems. However, the scale of fraud was said to be considerably lower, while at the same time Afghani and international tolerance for the new process was certainly higher.

For people inside and outside Afghanistan, the basic question is whether the 2009 election is the continuation of a farce that began in 2004, or a step towards greater accountability and transparency in government. Perhaps the earlier rounds were similarly corrupt, except in this care the irregularities are being brought to light.

Nevertheless, the Electoral Complaints Commission, a body mandated by Afghanistan's election law and supported by the UN, has received quite a number of electoral complaints. This body, which was established after the 2004 election, has wide-reaching powers that range from issuing warnings and fines (up to USD 2,000) to ordering a recount or revote, removing candidates from the ballot or invalidating individual paper ballots.

The current published figures from the ECC date from 12 September, at which point the commission had received nearly 3000 complaints, some directly and some forwarded from the Provincial Electoral Commissions.

Not surprisingly, most allegations (about 70 percent), are of polling irregularities like ballot stuffing or removal or undue influence on voting through intimidation and violence. Geographically, the irregularities have been focused in a few major provinces, with Baghlan province, dominated by main Karzai-challenger Abdullah Abdullah, leading the way in polling regularities, while Kabul is atop the list of reported intimidation and violence.

In response to the claims and a following investigation, the ECC has ordered a recount of all polling stations that had returns where more than 95 percent of the vote was carried by one candidate, as well as those for which turnout was 100 percent or higher, based on per-election estimates (each polling place was assigned. So far, the results of 81 polling stations in Kandahar, Ghazni, and Patika provinces have been declared invalid after allegations of ballot stuffing were proven true. More invalidations and ordered recounts are likely on the way, particularly in Baghlan province, where ethnic electoral violence was at its worst on election day. Whether this recount can resurrect the Abdullah campaign is yet to be seen, as between 10 and 15 percent of the total votes are expected to be recounted. Just a few hundred thousand votes changing hands could drop Hamid Karzai's total beneath the 50 percent plus one requirement for victory.

The uncertainly has driven the international community, which began by taking a hard line in support of the election and its results, to begin to shift towards a public position of skepticism. UN Special Representative of the Secretary General Kai Eide initially called the 20th of August a "a good day for Afghanistan," while US President Barack Obama described it as "an important step forward." Today, however, the US, UN and the rest of the international community are quickly backpedaling. The National Security Council, representing US special envoy Richard Holbrooke, has strongly stated that the US "condemn[s] any acts of fraud; it is important that the outcome of these elections reflect the will of the Afghan people."

Several possible endgames remain for the various big players in Afghanistan regarding the disputed election. NATO and the US have long been lukewarm with regard to Hamid Karzai, but have hoped that continuity will breed stability in the nation-building process. Northern supporters of Karzai, largely of non-Pashto ethnic groups, are certainly looking for an opening given the President's apparent weakness. Even if Abdullah does not want to pursue a serious challenge in the end, a governing coalition for a new Karzai government will be a tough sale for some. Of course, a lot will rest on the ECC's decision regarding the field electoral complaints, and how the national political actors react. Right now, however, uncertainty dominates as we play the waiting game.

In the next column, we will look at the major players and how the incentives shake out.

Update: The BBC is reporting that the final provisional votes totals are now in, with Karzai winning 54.6 percent (38.7 percent turnout). The EU observer mission has gone on the record, calling into question about a quarter of all the votes - about 1.5 million ballots.
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Renard Sexton is FiveThirtyEight's international columnist and is based in Geneva, Switzerland. He can be contacted at sexton538@gmail.com

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Baucus Compromise Bill Draws Enthusiastic Support of Senator Max Baucus (D-MT)

After a couple of weeks that have generally looked pretty good for Team Blue on health care reform, Max Baucus's Senate Finance Committee bill suddenly finds itself devoid of supporters. And everyone seems to have their own, unique way of objecting.

Firstly, there's Jay Rockefeller, who opposes the lack of a pubic option.

Ron Wyden doesn't think the subsidies are sufficient.

Then there's Olympia Snowe, who doesn't like the funding mechanism.

John Kerry also has issues with the funding plan -- different issues than Snowe does -- and implies that the bill needs significant changes.

Mike Enzi and Chuck Grassley, who were never really on board in the first place, have a litany of objections.

Kent Conrad now wants the CBO to score the bill with a 20-year time window -- an unorthodox move which could have a variety of motives, but if nothing else introduces another wrench into the works.

At least Jeff Bingaman is still on board. For now.

These are not just any old random set of Senators opposing Baucus's plan -- these are the thought leaders on health care reform.

Negotiations are funny things. Sometimes the scariest moments come when you're closest to a settlement, as all sides feel emboldened to take the last opportunity to demonstrate resolve. Leverage in a negotiation is not necessarily a zero-sum affair, since nobody has any leverage if there's no hope to reach an agreement. So some of this maneuvering, perhaps, is a reflection of the bill moving closer to passage and not further away.

But let's be clear -- some of this is Baucus's chickens coming home to roost. When you make a unilateral decision to negotiate with only five other people from a 23-person committee and 100-person Senate, and two of those five people have clear electoral disincentives against supporting any plan that you might come up with, the negotiations are liable to end in failure far more often than not. The flurry of on-the-record statements against Baucus's reform plans -- not "leaks", not trial balloons -- points toward a defective process.

And that may suit Democrats just fine. There are at least three other starting points for a final showdown over health care: the House Tri-Committee bill, the Senate HELP bill, and possibly also the White's House's statement of principles, some of which remain vaguely defined. Many of the objections raised to BaucusCare would necessarily apply to one or more of those bills too -- but they'd appear to be starting from no worse a position than Baucus's plan itself.

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9.14.2009

Ron Paul Rallies, V.2009?

I didn’t wander down to the Capitol and National Mall on Saturday because I’m nursing a bum ankle from a spill I took playing pickup hoops. But I wish had been able to go, and I further wish I had developed even a crude survey instrument to administer to protesters. What I would have asked them is one, simple question, “Whom did you support in last year’s Republican primaries?”

My suspicion is there would be an unusually high number of people replying, "Ron Paul."

I realize the protesters who came to Washington Saturday are not a representative sample of all those making noises at health care town halls. Surely, East Coasters or those who happen to live in relative proximity to DC were overrepresented. Whatever their hometowns, those too ill to make the trek were probably (and ironically) underrepresented. And, like many such protests, some attendees were there as much to push their own single-issue agendas, such as anti-abortion or pro-gun platforms, as they were to protest specifically the Obama Administration’s health care reform plan. And I’m sure there were still others who, regardless of their interest or feelings about health care reform, simply oppose the president for a variety of legitimate (He’s too liberal!) or nutjobby (He’s a fascist-socialist Muslim infidel born in Kenya!) reasons.

But strip away the angry rhetoric and easily-mocked signs to listen to what people are complaining about--and, perhaps more tellingly, what they are not complaining about--and the protesters sound eerily Paulesque. They are complaining about government intrusion: oppressive use of government (czars!), too much intervention in personal lives and markets (death panels!), long-term debt obligations (where will the money come from?!), and the proper role of the federal government (it's all so unconstitutional!)--that is, they fret that Obama is going to destroy America and American values from within. What the vast majority do not seem to be complaining about, so far as I can tell, is how the Administration is fighting and managing the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, or its overall security and intelligence posture--that is, they don't seem too worried that Obama is going to let America be destroyed from the outside.

Granted, a plausible explanation for a general absence of defense or foreign policy critiques is that the national conversation right now is focused squarely on health care coverage, deficits and debt, and domestic policy more generally. It may well be that if I poked a Saturday protester in DC he or she would have had something critical to say about Obama’s foreign and defense policies, too. Still, it's interesting to consider the possibility that the town halls of Summer 2009 are a rekindled version of Ron Paul rallies in 2007 and 2008. And one of the reasons I suspect this is the nature of the fervor itself--its tenor, its intensity, its certainty, and especially its language.

Anyone like me who writes publicly about politics knows that if you wrote anything even mildly critical of Ron Paul during the presidential race, your inbox was soon flooded with complaints...even if your comments were largely laudatory! In my Baltimore Sun column of August 1, 2007, I argued that, whatever else one thought about them, Paul and Democratic Rep. Dennis Kucinich were serving an identical purpose in their respective parties' nomination field: keeping their fellow candidates' feet to the fire on their Iraq war records. Overall, the piece praised both men (*see excerpt below). But because I happened to dismiss Paul's chances at the nomination, and referred to both men as "quirky gadflies"--a label I'd happily apply to myself, for the record--I was snowed under by rage-filled comments. I regret not saving the emails that August, but suffice to say that the comments posted in response to the column at this link are a very good approximation of the reactions I received directly.

Notice from these comments not only the certainty that Paul's candidacy and chances at the nomination were being underestimated, but the equal certainty with which followers believed in him and his ideas. Notice, too, the references to honesty, to the proper understanding of American history and the Constitution, and of course the unrelenting pique directed at the mainstream media's overlooking of Paul, his ideas, and his supporters.

Best I can tell, The Daily Beast's Dana Goldstein is the only person who so far has tried to document a connection between the Paulites and the protesters. In a brilliant investigative essay, which I strongly recommend people read in full, Goldstein writes:

One of Paul’s main arguments from the campaign, that much social spending is unconstitutional, has become a rallying cry of the Republican base. At a health-care town-hall meeting in Sun City, Arizona, on August 25, a woman asked McCain, “I would like to know how the president is getting by with all of this money....It’s against the Constitution. Doesn’t he know that we still live under a Constitution?” McCain was booed when he replied, “I’m sure that [Obama] respects the Constitution of the United States.” In part, Paul’s anti-federal ideology has gained traction because conservatives are incensed by President Obama’s ambitious—and expensive—domestic agenda, from health reform to the federal stimulus to bank bailouts. And in part, it’s because libertarian thinking is easier for mainstream Republicans to embrace on healthcare than it is on doing away with the Federal Reserve or ending American imperialism. Right wing poster girl Rep. Michele Bachmann, an originator of the false "death panel" rumor, has promised to schedule a Minnesota town hall meeting with Paul in September...

But there’s a darker side to the story: Some of Paul’s grassroots supporters have protested, armed, at health-care town-hall meetings. They are connected in a loose-knit, nationwide network of activists who believe the current federal government is largely illegitimate and unconstitutional. Some have ties to the “birther” movement, which believes—disregarding all evidence—that President Obama is not a natural-born American citizen.

To be fair, Paul’s Congressional office and his nonprofit, the Campaign for Liberty, have no direct ties to the gun-toting protesters....

As he did on the campaign trail, Paul argues that inflation is the chief cause of rising health-care costs, and that the solution is tort reform and cutting taxes. He also blames the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. “You can’t keep expanding a war in the Middle East and pretend you can come up with a $2 trillion medical-care program,” Paul said. “I think the statistics are showing that the American people are turning against the Afghanistan war. And can you imagine how much health care we could have had without the bailout packages?”

“With the collapsing of the economy and this rush for more government medical care, the people are much more alarmed and concerned and outspoken than I ever dreamed of,” Ron Paul said.

This sounds like reasonable opposition. But the fact is many of Paul’s most ardent supporters aren’t listening carefully to their leader. In Portsmouth, New Hampshire, on August 11, television networks captured William Kostric, a native Arizonan, standing outside a presidential town-hall meeting wearing a 9-mm handgun strapped to his belt. He held a sign referencing the Thomas Jefferson quote, “The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of tyrants and patriots.” Kostric’s MySpace profile lists Paul as his “hero” and someone he’d “like to meet.” The page also includes lyrics to a pro-Ron Paul rap song....

One of the Phoenix protesters, Chris Broughton, a former Paul campaign volunteer, carried an AR-15 semi-automatic rifle. “This government is the most corrupt Mafioso on the face of the earth,” Broughton later told the Arizona Republic. Broughton attends a church led by Pastor Steven Anderson, who delivered a sermon the day before the event praying for Obama’s death and calling him a “socialist devil.”

What more typical conservatives might not realize is that armed protesters like Broughton and Kostric represent an ideology far more complex and radical than simply opposing “socialized” medicine or increased government spending. Their worldview is pro-life, anti-tax, and hawkish on immigration, which they call an “invasion”—but also passionately anti-war and anti-authoritarian.
This is a long excerpt, but to unpack it quickly let's just say that you see many of the elements we witnessed at both the summer town halls and last Saturday's protest march. Yes, there are complaints about liberals, Democrats, ACORN and so forth. But the larger complaint is about an unconstitutional usurpation of power, of tyranny through socialism (or fascism, protestors can't seem to keep the two straight), and a general paranoia about not just Obama and the Democratic Congress but the whole Washington system. It's an "invasion," sure, but an invasion from within.

Circumstantial evidence also links protesters to Paulites. Michelle Goldberg notes that FOX News gives Paul allay Andrew Napolitano significant exposure (even if only online). Robert Broadus, who ran for Congress in Maryland's 4th District, is a Ron Paul tea partier who showed up to complain at a Ben Cardin town hall and was soon thereafter invited on Neil Cavuto's show.



What does all this mean? Two curiosities come most immediately to mind.

First, what's interesting here as pertains to media coverage is the very real possibility that the same "mainstream/liberal media" that ignored and dissed Ron Paul and his supporters are now bending over backward to give them coverage beyond their actual numbers. Second, as pertains to the Republican Party and the conservative movement, what's interesting is the possible elevation of a movement that two years ago was insufficient to nominate its preferred candidate to a position of being able to change the policy debate and cow the very same Republican elites who lined up, almost to a person, behind other Republican presidential contenders.

Hopefully, pollsters or investigative reporters will try to drill down a bit further to learn more about these protesters. And now I must go prepare for the impending email deluge.

(*The Sun links go stale after a few weeks and I could not find a reprint anywhere. The following excerpt is verbatim final four graphs of the column:

It's easy to dismiss as reckless the statements of these war opponents. But at least their positions have the benefit of consistency: If you oppose the war and think it is going badly, they insist, then vote against it.

Their critique carries a different subtext for Democrats and Republicans, however. Mr. Kucinich's roughly translates as, "Democrats who vote for the war's continuation while mouthing dissatisfaction to score political points are hypocrites." What Mr. Paul is saying is, "Republicans who vote to perpetuate the war while blathering about supporting the troops who would undoubtedly be safer at home just to score political points are hypocrites."

A recent national poll shows Mr. Kucinich and Mr. Paul at 3 percent and 2 percent, respectively, among their party's primary voters. Their electoral problems go well beyond electability to near-invisibility. They are treated like novelty items, to be picked up momentarily, puzzled over and put back on a shelf.

But in a country where majorities think the war was a mistake, has not been worth it, has aggravated terrorism risks for the country and needs to end, is it a bad thing to have two quirky gadflies who hold their colleagues to account for the biggest policy fiasco in decades
?)

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A Bounce? Yes. A Game-Changer? We'll See.

Remember back to the campaign? I know, it feels like ages ago. But one of the things we all learned back then is that one really needs to look the preponderance of the polling data to get some idea of where the numbers are headed. The margins of error on individual polls -- margins which are in fact much larger than the ones the pollsters report officially -- are generally too large to be terribly useful unto themselves.

So far, there have been three sets of polling on health care conducted since Barack Obama's big speech last Wednesday:

-- Rasmussen finds an 7-point bump in support for health care reform -- from 44 percent in a poll conducted last Tuesday and Wednesday (essentially all the interviews were completed before the President's speech began) to 51 percent support based on polling conducted over the weekend.

-- ABC/WaPo, on the other hand, identifies just a 1-point improvement in support for the President's plan versus a poll conducted about a month ago (although their "strongly oppose" number has decreased by 4 points, and their "strongly support" number has increased by 3 points.)

-- CBS/NYT re-sampled their panel from 8/27 and 8/28 and found a 12-point increase in approval for Obama on health care after his speech; this is not the same thing as asking whether people whether they support or oppose his health care plan, although the numbers have generally tracked one another fairly closely.

The first thing to notice is that each of these polls has a different jumping-off off point. Rasmussen has begun tracking the health care numbers daily; CBS's previous poll was about two weeks old, and ABC's previous poll was about a month old. So these polls are not necessarily contradictory if Obama's health care numbers had declined from mid-August -- when ABC last polled the issue -- until the night before his speech. On the other hand, it's not clear that Obama's numbers were in decline over that period -- most of the damage seems to have been done in July and early August.

If we simply take the three polls at face value and average them together (6.7 points), they in fact point toward a statistically strong likelihood of a bounce. Concluding that there is no bounce on the basis of the ABC poll, as some smart commentators appear to have done, while ignoring the other polling, is not objective, plainly put. There should, however, be plenty more data out before the end of the week to help settle any arguments.

The real question, of course, is not whether there's been a bounce, but how long-lasting its effects might be. Bounces usually dissipate. That's why we call them bounces; they go up and they go down. If Obama's health care polling is back in the low 40s by early next week, well then, who cares if there had been a bounce -- it's entirely an academic question. I'm not yet prepared to render a prediction on this subject, although for a variety of reasons -- basically, the GOP having used up a lot of its firepower coupled with Obama having underachieved his overall approval ratings on health care reform -- I think the bounce (if there is one) is more likely to have "oomph" than it usually does.

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When You Assume, You Make a Mess Out of Your Poll

It's a bit difficult to reconcile the results of three questions from the new Washington Post/ABC News poll on health care reform:
16. Overall, given what you know about them, would you say you support or oppose the proposed changes to the health care system being developed by (Congress) and (the Obama administration)?

Support 46%, Oppose 48%

22. Would you support or oppose having the government create a new health insurance plan to compete with private health insurance plans? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

Support 55%, Oppose 42%

23. Say health care reform does NOT include the option of a government-sponsored health plan - in that case would you support or oppose the rest of the proposed changes to the health care system being developed by (Congress) and (the Obama administration)?

Support 50%, Oppose 42%
This is the Washington Post's attempt at interpreting these results:
But it is the public option that has become the major point of contention, with support for the government creation of an insurance plan that would compete with private insurers stabilizing in the survey after dipping last month. Now, 55 percent say they like the idea, but the notion continues to attract intense objection: If that single provision were removed, opposition to the overall package drops by six percentage points, according to the poll.

Without the public option, 50 percent back the rest of the proposed changes; a still sizable 42 percent are opposed. Independents divide 45-45 on a package without the government-sponsored insurance option, while they are largely negative on the entire set of proposals (40 percent support and 52 percent oppose). Republican opposition also fades 20 points under this scenario.

The decision to back away from the provision might hurt Obama among his base, but not dramatically so, as 88 percent of liberal Democrats support the reform plan as is, 81 percent without the public option.
This, I suppose, is the Occam's Razor interpretation. Even though a majority of people support the public option, its inclusion is a "deal breaker" for a decent fraction of the opposition -- enough that support for the plan increases overall if it is removed, even though some people (about 6 percent of "liberal Democrats") will cease to support the plan under those circumstances.

However, this is not the only interpretation -- and it may not be the correct one. One problem is that both the poll and the article assume that the public assumes that the public option is the default condition of the health care reform plan. But as anyone who is following the health care debate knows, this is hardly a safe assumption. Some versions of the "proposed changes to the health care system being developed by Congress and the Obama administration" -- like the one which was passed by the House tri-committee -- include a public option. Other versions -- like the draft prepared by Max Baucus's Senate Finance Committee -- do not. And the President himself is on the fence. As a matter of semantics at the very least, it is not really proper to state that "If [the public option] were removed, opposition to the overall package drops by six percentage points," because it is not clear that the public option is in the package in the first place.

So what? -- I can hear you saying. At first the Washington Post asks a question about health care reform without including any specificity about the public option. I'll take you at your word, Nate, that some people will start out by assuming that the plan in fact has a public option and others will not. But once you specify that the plan does not have a public option, support rises. Does that not nevertheless prove that punting the public option would improve the plan's popularity?

No, it doesn't. It's suggestive of that result, certainly. But it's a pretty far cry removed from proof of it. Let me explain why.

When you're specifying that the plan does not include a public option, you're really doing two things. Number one, you're taking the public option off the table. But number two, you're providing specificity. And what the health care polling has consistently shown over the past few months is that the more specificity you provide, the more support for the package rises.

I can buy that specifying that the plan would not include a public option would improve support for it. But it might also be the case that that specifying that the plan would include a public option would also improve support for it. The respondents may be reacting to the specificity more than anything having to do with the public option itself.

What the Washington Post should have done is the following: break their sample into two halves. To one half, ask again about the health care package, but specify that it will not include a public option. To the other half, ask again about the health care package, but specify that it will include a public option. Then compare and contrast. If the Washington Post had done this, it would not surprise me if support for the plan increased among both subsamples.

There is another problem too, which is that the second question on the public option -- question #23 -- omits a key word from the original question. The word in question is "insurance". Whereas the first question correctly stipulates that the public option is something having to do with government-provided insurance -- something which most polls suggest is popular -- the follow-up comes closer to implying that the government would become involved in the provision of health care itself, something which is probably not very popular. Since question #23 immediately proceeds question #22, the Washington Post probably assumes that people will retain the necessary context: the public option is an insurance thing, not a "government takeover" thing. But some people will not assume this -- because some people are very confused about health care reform. We know, moreover, that polling on the public option is extremely sensitive to seemingly small changes in wording. There are probably not a lot of people who will be confused by all of this -- but I assure you, there are some.

Basically, the Washington Post is assuming too much of its respondents -- making assumptions which might seem obvious in the Washington Post newsroom, but which might not be so apparent to the 1,007 random Americans that they polled.

From my vantage point, what the poll "proves", if anything, is that specificity will be helpful to the Democrats. They should either insist on the public option or remove it -- but keeping their options open may be doing little more than confusing the public. And the pollsters.

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9.13.2009

Size Matters; So Do Lies

Back in April, when there was a round of several hundred "tea party" protests across the country to coincide with Tax Day, I devoted significant attention to figuring out how many people had actually attended the rallies. The best figure I could come up with was at least 300,000 -- "at least" being an important caveat because there were dozens of smaller tea party protests for which no reliable crowd size estimates were available. The real number was probably something between 350,000 and 400,000.

This was, I believed at the time and continue to believe, a relatively impressive figure. It is also one that liberals were silly to be so predictably and universally dismissive of. Indeed, the protests were a harbinger for the tough slog ahead for Democrats on health care and other issues. Yes, the grievances that these protesters had may have been somewhat disconnected, and their rank might have run the gamut from ordinary, red-meat conservatives and to the black helicopter set. But, anger is still anger -- and a lot of people, self-evidently, were angry.

At the same time, in attempting to cobble together literally hundreds of independent, local newspaper reports to come up with this figure, I learned a few things about the gamesmanship involved in the reporting of crowd size estimates. Namely, there is a lot of misleading information out there -- some resulting from deliberate lies from protest organizers who exaggerate about how many people they'd drawn to their events, and some of it arising more innocently -- estimating the size of a crowd actually isn't all that easy, particularly if you're in the midst of one. This misinformation, moreover, tended to be self-perpetuating: an organizer might tell a reporter from a local radio station that they'd drawn 3,000 people to their event (when really they'd drawn 800); the 3,000 figure would be picked up by the local TV station, and then the next day on by the local newspaper, which had heard the number on TV. At each stage of the process, as in a game of "telephone", the fidelity of the information was degraded. Perhaps the appropriate context on the number (that it had not been independently verified) had been dutifully reported by the radio station -- but by the time the the transmission had made its way to the newspaper, that context had been lost. The Atlanta rally, for instance, was reported by the local CBS station to have drawn some 15,000 persons -- a figure which, it was later discovered, would quite literally have been physically impossible.

Usually, though, these exaggerations were contained within some reasonable bounds. The estimate reported by CBS Atlanta, for example, appears to have been about double the actual crowd size in that city. I found other cases in which there might have been a threefold or fourfold discrepancy between the numbers claimed by protesters and those provided by local fire departments or sheriff's offices. But almost never more than that -- at some point, a lie ceases to be credible. And of course, there were many protest organizers that provided perfectly honest estimates of their turnouts. I even came across a couple of cases in which they appeared to have lowballed the numbers relative to the estimates provided by independent observers.

But yesterday, someone told a real whopper. ABC News, citing the DC fire department, reported that between 60,000 and 70,000 people had attended the tea party rally at the Capitol. By the time this figure reached Michelle Malkin, however, it had been blown up to 2,000,000. There is a big difference, obviously, between 70,000 and 2,000,000. That's not a twofold or threefold exaggeration -- it's roughly a thirtyfold exaggeration.

The way this false estimate came into being is relatively simple: Matt Kibbe, the president of FreedomWorks, lied, claiming that ABC News had reported numbers of between 1.0 and 1.5 million when they never did anything of the sort. A few tweets later, the numbers had been exaggerated still further to 2 million. Kibbe wasn't "in error", as Malkin gently puts it. He lied. He did the equivalent of telling people that his penis is 53 inches long.

Malkin, who to her credit later corrected the error, frets that it might be used to by liberals to "discredit the undeniably massive turnout". She's right to be worried -- it absolutely will be used that way. If you don't want to be discredited, then don't, as Kibbe did, tell a ridiculous (and easily disprovable) lie.

Malkin herself did not lie; she merely repeated a lie. It does not particularly call into question her character. It does, however, call into question her judgment. The reason is that if there had in fact been 2 million protesters in Washington yesterday, there would have been no need to lie about it -- the magnitude of the protests would have been self-evident. I was in Washington for the inauguration, an event at which there really were almost 2 million people present -- and let me tell you, it was a Holy Mess. Hotels, charging double or treble their usual rates, were booked weeks in advance. Major stations on the Metro system were shut down for hours at a time. The National Guard was brought in. At least 3,000 people got stuck in a tunnel. Essentially the entirely of the National Mall, from the Capitol to the Washington Monument, was dotted with onlookers. Heaps of trash were left behind. The entire city was basically a warzone for a period of about 20 hours, from midnight through mid-evening.

But there are no accounts of any of those sorts of things happening yesterday. 70 thousand people, rather, is about the number that will attend the Washington Redskins' home opener next week. That's a lot of people. Washington -- actually Landover, Maryland, where FedEx Field is located -- will be inconvenienced. But it won't be shut down. Business will go on more or less as usual.

This was not a small rally. It was also not, in comparison with something like the 2006 pro-immigration protests, a particularly large rally. It was a business-as-usual sort of rally. Mock the protesters at your peril: business as usual suddenly isn't so good for Democrats these days, and the sentiments of the 70,000 people who marched on Washington surely mirror those of millions more sitting at home. They were done a disservice by being represented by a liar like Kibbe.

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