Taking an unweighted average in these counties, Corzine is running about 8 points off his pace from four years ago, when he won 53.5 percent of the vote. That would put him at 45.5 percent -- probably not quite enough to win -- but this is an imprecise analysis for a number of reasons and Corzine's numbers are holding up a bit better in the more vote-heavy counties in North Jersey. And I don't know to what extent absentee ballots are included or not included in this count, which were thought to favor Corzine.
EDIT: Err... apparently not, as the AP has called the race for Christie. Other networks have not so far. But I'm looking at this one-dimensionally -- comparing percentages, but not turnout -- whereas hopefully they're looking at both factors.